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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

With three and a half months to go, what are Joe Biden's odds of winning compared to Kamala Harris's?

Kamala is no great alternative, but at least she is alive?

Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Trusting polls is a fool's errand.  They have been somewhat to wildly inaccurate over the past 10-15 years, if not longer.

Agreed, but a legitimate trend with Trump is that he outperformed the final polls in 2016 and 2020.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Trusting polls is a fool's errand.  They have been somewhat to wildly inaccurate over the past 10-15 years, if not longer.

This is not to say Biden can or will beat Trump.  It's my opinion that Kamala Harris can't, but that's conjecture.  I do agree that Trump had a decent shot prior to the debate, a better shot after the debate, and now it looks really bad for Biden.  (ISWYDT)

Kind of my point.  Anyone can pull a poll out of their ass.  What we've seen consistently in the past couple of years is polls tend to be wrong.  And, while we're not in a great place right now, there are 3 1/2 months to go.  Trump or JD can go on some crazy lunatic binge from now until the election that may impact voting, turnout, etc. 

And, again, if you think Trump is going to question the legitimacy of a Biden win (which he will question it), wait until someone like Harris or Newsom or whatever wins.  Not saying they are winning - saying what would happen.  It will be Trumpy to 11.  Why not make Trump louder at 10?  Because he goes to 11.

Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit advantage in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll, boosted by broad disapproval of Donald Trump on two controversial issues: His treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election’s legitimacy.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-vaults-double-digit-lead-boosted-broad-disapproval/story?id=42993821

Edited by texasdago
Posted
11 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This is the hard part for committed progressives and political junkies to understand:  Biden was never particularily popular, but represented a digestible alternative for low information swing voters to Trump's invective and boobish presidential term.  They could swallow his age then.  Increasingly, they can't now, and by staying the race and showing the candidate energy of a near corpse, he's letting the GOP slowly convince the same low information swing voters that maybe they can live with another Trump term, since they are clearly stating they don't think Biden is capable as either a candidate or a elected official.

i totally understand all of this and i still can't believe people are willing to go back to the shitshow that is trump. only a second term will be 10x worse.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

With three and a half months to go, what are Joe Biden's odds of winning compared to Kamala Harris's?

Biden's chances are worse than Harris, IMO.  She's not an ideal choice, but at least she's vibrant and gives everyone who hates Trump but doesn't want an 81 year old man who can barely read a teleprompter an option. Attach a Andy Brashear or Roy Cooper as VP, and hope Trump can't control himself and reverts to the mean.  

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Posted

So it looks bad for Biden and Kamala can’t win but we shouldn’t trust the polls?

 

Dems are winning in the senate polls. The question is why can’t Biden get those same votes. Yes, there’s time but what isn’t the Biden team doing now that they could be doing to get those votes back? 

With Vance as the VP, I think that’s an opening for Dems. I just hope Dems don’t sit back and say “see, they won’t vote for that ticket so we’re good” which means the Dems will do exactly that.

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Posted
1 minute ago, 4th&Five said:

i totally understand all of this and i still can't believe people are willing to go back to the shitshow that is trump. only a second term will be 10x worse.

That's the problem:  The party (non necessarily Biden's inner circle, who I think are trapped in a confirmation bias loop of epic proportions) is just in disbelief that this is happening and swing voter's are considering Trump again. And it's creating a denial problem that is trapping the party. 

The first thing you have to do is accept swing voters will vote for Trump again, even after voting for Biden in 2020.  Then work the problem backward from there.

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Posted
Just now, Bateshorn said:

Biden's chances are worse than Harris, IMO.  She's not an ideal choice, but at least she's vibrant and gives everyone who hates Trump but doesn't want an 81 year old man who can barely read a teleprompter an option. Attach a Andy Brashear or Roy Cooper as VP, and hope Trump can't control himself and reverts to the mean.  

It's too bad you can't convince Barack Obama to run for VP.

Oh well.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Biden's chances are worse than Harris, IMO.  She's not an ideal choice, but at least she's vibrant and gives everyone who hates Trump but doesn't want an 81 year old man who can barely read a teleprompter an option. Attach a Andy Brashear or Roy Cooper as VP, and hope Trump can't control himself and reverts to the mean.  

At this point a Harris/Beshear ticket is the only viable option for generating some momentum and taking the headlines back.

There is no catalyst for Biden to win back share at this point. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Dems are winning in the senate polls. The question is why can’t Biden get those same votes.

Bear with me here . . . what if the senate polls are wrong, too?

I don't see a great strategy here.  I see several long shots.  Take one, I guess.  I just want to see some fight, and so far, I don't.  Same old same old.

Posted
7 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

At this point a Harris/Beshear ticket is the only viable option for generating some momentum and taking the headlines back.

There is no catalyst for Biden to win back share at this point. 

WTF is Beshear... like I tend to pay attention to politics and have never heard that name.  So you think those who don't pay attention will know that name?  

Posted
11 minutes ago, Pancho said:

So it looks bad for Biden and Kamala can’t win but we shouldn’t trust the polls?

 

Dems are winning in the senate polls. The question is why can’t Biden get those same votes. Yes, there’s time but what isn’t the Biden team doing now that they could be doing to get those votes back? 

With Vance as the VP, I think that’s an opening for Dems. I just hope Dems don’t sit back and say “see, they won’t vote for that ticket so we’re good” which means the Dems will do exactly that.

Man, I weirdly feel some just want a fractured government and gridlock. They don't trust Biden can do the job but they're fine with their senator being a Democrat. Who knows anymore. 

Posted

This is kinda shaping up to be the Women Vs. Men election.  And the Democratic party is not giving women a lot to work with, while the Trump and the GOP are just straight pumping Bro Energy into the XY system. 


But sure, sit back and hope a moribund candidacy and Dobbs will drag the party across the line in MI, WI, and PA. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, texasdago said:

WTF is Beshear... like I tend to pay attention to politics and have never heard that name.  So you think those who don't pay attention will know that name?  

It's not who he is, as much as what he looks like, this is America afterall:

image.webp.62d5dc63d5d0ed3527173c5a834c7e7f.webp

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Posted
Just now, Bateshorn said:

This is kinda shaping up to be the Women Vs. Men election.  And the Democratic party is not giving women a lot to work with, while the Trump and the GOP are just straight pumping Bro Energy into the XY system. 


But sure, sit back and hope a moribund candidacy and Dobbs will drag the party across the line in MI, WI, and PA. 

Cool. If the fear of a national abortion ban won't do it, what will? A wildly unpopular female candidate? A white dude as her running mate? What will get women to vote for a Democrat at the top of the ticket?

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Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

Cool. If the fear of a national abortion ban won't do it, what will? A wildly unpopular female candidate? A white dude as her running mate? What will get women to vote for a Democrat at the top of the ticket?

Because the Wildly Unpopular Old Man at the top of the ticket is? 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This is kinda shaping up to be the Women Vs. Men election.  And the Democratic party is not giving women a lot to work with, while the Trump and the GOP are just straight pumping Bro Energy into the XY system. 


But sure, sit back and hope a moribund candidacy and Dobbs will drag the party across the line in MI, WI, and PA. 

They really shouldn't need anything more than Roe v Wade to see the writing on the wall if Democrats lose this election but ...

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Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

BTW, Andy Beshear is the governor of Kentucky.

I had to look that up. I don't take that as a positive but we are only talking about VP here. As long as he's able to competently spar with JD in a VP debate, I'm down to clown.

Posted
Just now, Bateshorn said:

Because the Wildly Unpopular Old Man at the top of the ticket is? 

It doesn't look like there's going to be a replacement, so the party and campaign better pick one or two issues and get to work.

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Posted

If a majority of the country wants to have a Zoolander style gasoline fight, there's not anything the Democrats can do about it.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It doesn't look like there's going to be a replacement, so the party and campaign better pick one or two issues and get to work.

I'm very cynical, but I think it will still happen sometime before the DNC. Conceding the race to Trump by letting Biden stay in could create irreparable damage to the Democratic Party. 

If someone could articulate a real path for Biden, I'm listening. No one has done it yet. 

 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I'm very cynical, but I think it will still happen sometime before the DNC. Conceding the race to Trump by letting Biden stay in could create irreparable damage to the Democratic Party. 

You misspelled Democracy

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I'm very cynical, but I think it will still happen sometime before the DNC. Conceding the race to Trump by letting Biden stay in could create irreparable damage to the Democratic Party. 

If someone could articulate a real path for Biden, I'm listening. No one has done it yet. 

Has anyone articulated a real path for anyone else?

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Posted
1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Has anyone articulated a real path for anyone else?

It may not matter. Private and public attempts whether halfhearted or not to get Biden to step aside have not worked.
 

The primary focus should be down ballot races and trying to control Congress. If The DNC has the virtual roll call Biden will be the nominee. 

“Some lawmakers are uneasy about the Democratic National Committee's plans to forge ahead with a virtual roll call vote to nominate Biden weeks before the Democratic convention.

"People are back to being angry at Biden and a push to sign on to this letter is going around ... the 'replace Biden' movement is back," a House Democrat told Axios.”

Posted
2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I'm very cynical, but I think it will still happen sometime before the DNC. Conceding the race to Trump by letting Biden stay in could create irreparable damage to the Democratic Party. 

If someone could articulate a real path for Biden, I'm listening. No one has done it yet. 

 

I am with you that I am not seeing a path for Biden at this point.  Not all his fault either.  I mean if there are that many people in this country that not only want Trump again but want what the Republicans are pushing as their agenda there just isn't much hope at this point.  The media/right wing has done an amazing job of making half this country think immigrants are killing people all day long and Biden is doing nothing about it and that the economy is terrible when any other presidency would be touting the economic numbers and how good they are.  There are no facts anymore unfortunately. 

I personally would go with a Kamala/Whitmer all female ticket and see if women in this country will pull the lever even though their husbands think they are pulling it for Trump.   

Posted
1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Dorothy Thompson’s essay “who goes Nazi” has been referenced here a lot.  Hello, JD Vance. 
 

image.thumb.png.02ed7048985d6bf6c827efd318600c46.png

Never read that before. incredible.

59 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This is the hard part for committed progressives and political junkies to understand:  Biden was never particularily popular, but represented a digestible alternative for low information swing voters to Trump's invective and boobish presidential term.  They could swallow his age then.  Increasingly, they can't now, and by staying the race and showing the candidate energy of a near corpse, he's letting the GOP slowly convince the same low information swing voters that maybe they can live with another Trump term, since they are clearly stating they don't think Biden is capable as either a candidate or a elected official.

good post. 

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Posted

Schiff told a big bunch of donors over the weekend (in the Hamptons) that Dems are turbofucked down ballot if Biden stays in. 

 

I fully acknowledge Schiff is a Pelosi bro

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Posted
1 minute ago, Pancho said:

Schiff told a big bunch of donors over the weekend (in the Hamptons) that Dems are turbofucked down ballot if Biden stays in. 

I fully acknowledge Schiff is a Pelosi bro

Which is ironic, since Nancy Pelosi is part of the reason we're in this mess in the first place.

Posted
Cool. If the fear of a national abortion ban won't do it, what will? A wildly unpopular female candidate? A white dude as her running mate? What will get women to vote for a Democrat at the top of the ticket?

Taylor Swift going hard in the paint. But I get why she won’t and it ain’t the money, it’s the crazies.

And yea I can’t believe as a society we have gotten to the point where something like that is the best option…but it probably is.
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Posted
1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Has anyone articulated a real path for anyone else?

I guess we need to define "real path".

I've laid out my thoughts on why a certain other candidate has the bona fides to win, but certain people on this board don't like the idea because she's not well known nationally.  Which is my mind is a good thing.  Especially when battling an adversary who has spent a lot of propaganda capital against the current top 3 choices (Biden, Harris, and Newsome).

IMHO, it would be much more difficult to attack a popular, white, midwestern., female governor of a swing state, surrounded by other swing states who sent her National Guard troops to the border under both Trump and Biden, and has worked hard to codify abortion rights in a purple state.

But at the end of the day, it's all a guessing game.

Posted
Just now, DixonHur said:

I guess we need to define "real path".

I've laid out my thoughts on why a certain other candidate has the bona fides to win, but certain people on this board don't like the idea because she's not well known nationally.  Which is my mind is a good thing.  Especially when battling an adversary who has spent a lot of propaganda capital against the current top 3 choices (Biden, Harris, and Newsome).

IMHO, it would be much more difficult to attack a popular, white, midwestern., female governor of a swing state, surrounded by other swing states who sent her National Guard troops to the border under both Trump and Biden, and has worked hard to codify abortion rights in a purple state.

But at the end of the day, it's all a guessing game.

Putting aside the technical difficulties of getting her at the top of the ticket, I think Big Gretch is keeping her powder dry from 2028 and hoping we still have elections then. 

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Posted
33 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Cool. If the fear of a national abortion ban won't do it, what will? A wildly unpopular female candidate? A white dude as her running mate? What will get women to vote for a Democrat at the top of the ticket?

I think someone who can put their words together and stay up past 8 pm would be an improvement. 

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

hoping we still have elections then

giphy.gif?cid=6c09b952ugjoeomg1lm0yy0jgo

I'd rather use all the ammunition this time, and then have that person run again for reelection in 2028

Edited by DixonHur
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Putting aside the technical difficulties of getting her at the top of the ticket, I think Big Gretch is keeping her powder dry from 2028 and hoping we still have elections then. 

Stop. You know as well as anyone we'll have elections. The political industrial complex isn't going to give up that kind of money.

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Posted
1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Stop. You know as well as anyone we'll have elections. The political industrial complex isn't going to give up that kind of money.

What is the political industrial complex?  That's a new one.

Isn't this all just wealthy people giving money in exchange for power?  They can have that in a dictatorship... see Russia.

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Posted
Just now, DixonHur said:

What is the political industrial complex?  That's a new one.

Isn't this all just wealthy people giving money in exchange for power?  They can have that in a dictatorship... see Russia.

Are you kidding? Do you have any idea how much money is involved in consulting, polling, campaigning, lobbying, legal work, etc.?

 

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Posted

Taylor Swift going hard in the paint. But I get why she won’t and it ain’t the money, it’s the crazies.

And yea I can’t believe as a society we have gotten to the point where something like that is the best option…but it probably is.

Dad bought her a bullet-proof SUV. She'll be fine.


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