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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If Texas is even a sweat, the election is long over. 

Considering Texas will finish counting well before PA and AZ and NV does, if Texas’ margin is fewer than 5 points, it’s an absolute bloodbath of an election.

I’m talking 319-219 EV and 5%+ popular vote margin. House would be easily won and decent chance Dems flipped TX or FL Senate and held both OH and MT

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Posted
2 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

With an infinite number of universes and realities, nothing is out of the realm of possibility. But this universe and this reality? Not gonna hold my breath 

R vs D in Texas with turnout Since 2012:
2012 (58%): 57-41 (16)
2016 (59%): 52-43 (9)
2020 (67%): 52-46.5 (5.5)

Does he margin get bigger or smaller this year?

Two takeaways here:
1) Despite the influx of assholes, the diversity of the cities provides the margin difference between presidential years and gubernatorial races
2) Higher turnout in cities would be more than enough to elect a governor
 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Considering Texas will finish counting well before PA and AZ and NV does, if Texas’ margin is fewer than 5 points, it’s an absolute bloodbath of an election.

I’m talking 319-219 EV and 5%+ popular vote margin. House would be easily won and decent chance Dems flipped TX or FL Senate and held both OH and MT

Aren’t there some rural counties that will be counting paper ballots by hand?  They may not make a difference in deciding Texas, but they will take some time to count and report. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

R vs D in Texas with turnout Since 2012:
2012 (58%): 57-41 (16)
2016 (59%): 52-43 (9)
2020 (67%): 52-46.5 (5.5)

Does he margin get bigger or smaller this year?

Two takeaways here:
1) Despite the influx of assholes, the diversity of the cities provides the margin difference between presidential years and gubernatorial races
2) Higher turnout in cities would be more than enough to elect a governor
 

Just sayin’, not holding my breath 

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Posted
Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Aren’t there some rural counties that will be counting paper ballots by hand?  They may not make a difference in deciding Texas, but they will take some time to count and report. 

Sure but we will know based on the big cities and what their results look like compared to 2020

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Posted
1 hour ago, Chopper said:

Counterpoint: Shapiro doesn't belong in the same tier as Buttigieg. He authorized state paid hush money for a sexual assault by one of his top staffers. He licked the heels of Elise Stefanik. He cracked down on peaceful protests at Penn by actual students of Penn. He's only been gov for 18 months. 

Shapiro seems like he sucks.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Aren’t there some rural counties that will be counting paper ballots by hand?  They may not make a difference in deciding Texas, but they will take some time to count and report. 

It will matter a lot in the event that the election is particularly close in particularly important places (i.e. Wisconsin), but

As it happens:
 

Quote

Hand counting paper ballots is usually conducted in smaller jurisdictions: In 2024, less than 0.2% of registered voters in the U.S. live in election jurisdictions that will hand count their early voting, Election Day, and mail ballots. Many of these jurisdictions are single-precinct municipalities in Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Wisconsin. Some counties in Arkansas, California, Nevada, and South Dakota have recently decided to hand count paper ballots—in some cases alongside machine counts, which remain the official count.

 

That said, I think this election is not going to be especially close, except in Wisconsin. I'm not saying Harris will win, BTW. I'm saying that in most of the seven states that are strategic to their respective campaigns, one candidate will have pulled away by election day at a level below the margin of error in the polls but sufficient to call the election by midnight on the east coast.  

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Didn’t you make a thread just for that?

Putt's a repost machine. I don't think he actually reads the content in threads except for whatever is on the most recent page (not even that lots of times).

 

1 hour ago, Chopper said:

Counterpoint: Shapiro doesn't belong in the same tier as Buttigieg. He authorized state paid hush money for a sexual assault by one of his top staffers. He licked the heels of Elise Stefanik. He cracked down on peaceful protests at Penn by actual students of Penn. He's only been gov for 18 months. 

 

14 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Shapiro seems like he sucks.

This was the first I've heard of this allegation, so I just looked it up. The payment wasn't for sexual assault but for sexual harassment by an advisor. Obviously, that's not much better and something that should be condemned. It also clearly doesn't help Shapiro's chances of being selected, especially since he'd be on a ticket going up against a sex criminal.

https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2023/10/pennsylvania-josh-shapiro-mike-vereb-sexual-harassment-settlement-amount/

HARRISBURG — Gov. Josh Shapiro’s office agreed to pay $295,000 to quietly settle a sexual harassment complaint against one of his most trusted advisors, according to records obtained by Spotlight PA through a public records request.

The settlement will be paid using public dollars. It was signed on Sept. 5, more than three weeks before the advisor, Mike Vereb, abruptly resigned from his job as Shapiro’s liaison to the state legislature, prompting Republicans to question the governor’s handling of the matter.

The agreement included a controversial confidentiality clause that bars both sides from discussing the allegations against Vereb. Spotlight PA is not naming the woman who brought the complaint, in which she alleges Vereb made inappropriate, crude, and sexually suggestive comments during her brief stint working for him earlier this year.

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Posted
20 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Georgia is going to be a huge huge problem if it goes blue again this cycle ….

 

You should take a break from political SM

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Posted
15 minutes ago, bolverk said:

This was the first I've heard of this allegation, so I just looked it up. The payment wasn't for sexual assault but for sexual harassment by an advisor. Obviously, that's not much better and something that should be condemned. It also clearly doesn't help Shapiro's chances of being selected, especially since he'd be on a ticket going up against a sex criminal.

It's the first time a lot of people have heard it, and it's the third time I've heard it today, which tells me somebody is pushing it.   PA is so important I still like Shapiro more than a Kelly nod, but Shapiro has downsides I wouldn't want unless there was upside to Shapiro that they couldn't get elsewhere. I do think Harris can win PA on her own with Casey on the ballot if she has momentum going into October and a good running mate who can do well in either Wisconsin and Michigan (Walz) or North Carolina and Georgia (Bashear and Cooper). 

Posted

You can’t put someone on this ticket who paid hush money and got an NDA signed for a sexual harassment complaint 

 

You just can’t 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

You can’t put someone on this ticket who paid hush money and got an NDA signed for a sexual harassment complaint 

 

You just can’t 

Agreed. 10-15 years ago before #metoo? Sure, but it'd still be gross. Right now? With these options and that competition? I simply don't see it.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

You can’t put someone on this ticket who paid hush money and got an NDA signed for a sexual harassment complaint 

 

You just can’t 

Well, an actually reasonable alternative explanation is that he settled a potential lawsuit (that's legit) and the terms of the settlement were confidential, including the identity of the complainant, which is legit and happens all the time in and out of the context of sexual harassment.

Can it and will it be spun the other way?  Bet your fur.  But before entirely condemning Shapiro, the above is a less-feverish explanation.

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Posted
1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, an actually reasonable alternative explanation is that he settled a potential lawsuit (that's legit) and the terms of the settlement were confidential, including the identity of the complainant, which is legit and happens all the time in and out of the context of sexual harassment.

Can it and will it be spun the other way?  Bet your fur.  But before entirely condemning Shapiro, the above is a less-feverish explanation.

Not worth the risk. We have the high ground on the issue, can’t concede it. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

You can’t put someone on this ticket who paid hush money and got an NDA signed for a sexual harassment complaint 

 

You just can’t 

That's like Klobs last cycle when we found out she didn't prosecute some racist cops in Minny or something.  

If that's true about Shaprio, it's a deal breaker.

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Posted (edited)

As long as we talk about what's winnable and since it seems like Optimism Sunday on the thread today, here's another thing. Obama won Florida in 2008 and 2012, and Gillum came within .4% (33k votes out of >9m cast) in 2018, on the strength of black voter turnout, and the difference for Hillary Clinton in 2016, was that white turnout increased from 2012, and black turnout dropped. in 2020 there was a huge surge in turnout across the board, but the smallest surge was among black voters, which was above 2016 and 2018, but above 2012 levels.  Now loow at the difference between black turnout in 2018 vs 2014 and 2022.

The point is that it's reasonable to infer that having a black woman on the ballot matters, and that in a presidential year it matters a lot. Florida could be in play. 
image.thumb.png.97d7e596340d7cd5d1c1073d5850ec99.png

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted

If I were a betting man, I’d say Kelly because he’s probably the most vetted, tested, beyond reproach, squeaky clean, boring white guy.  I got no problem with Walz, Cooper, or even Pete..  I just think Kelly is the safest and Dems usually go that way. 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It's the first time a lot of people have heard it, and it's the third time I've heard it today, which tells me somebody is pushing it.   PA is so important I still like Shapiro more than a Kelly nod, but Shapiro has downsides I wouldn't want unless there was upside to Shapiro that they couldn't get elsewhere. I do think Harris can win PA on her own with Casey on the ballot if she has momentum going into October and a good running mate who can do well in either Wisconsin and Michigan (Walz) or North Carolina and Georgia (Bashear and Cooper). 

 

2 hours ago, mdmost said:

The only thing about Shapiro I like is the likely state he would bring in. You cannot win this election without PA. 

I think the thing Shapiro gets you (besides PA) is the reason he does so well in PA.  From what little I have seen, I think he can help with the union/labor vote, which I think has slipped from the Dems in the last 20 years, and maybe the biggest gap with taking Biden off the ticket. That's important in PA, WI, and MI.  Big upside.  

But I don't think it is worth the baggage regarding the Palestinian/Israel issues.  I don't know if folks appreciate what a wedge issue that is, especially amongst the youth vote.  I assume the Dem strategy is to talk as little about it as possible.  Having Shapiro makes that impossible.  If she picks Shapiro, she better have a clear position on the conflict (including military and economic support for Israel), because otherwise it will be seen as a tacit acceptance of Shapiro's views, which includes arresting protesters.  I think that loses this election. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So Florida has, please verify or correct me- 1) legal pot 2) abortion protection 3) POC at the top of the ticket all on the ballot in November?  

You got it motherfucker

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Posted

So it's been a couple of days since Trump said, with a perfect undamaged right ear, "Vote for me and you'll never have to vote again". How many calls have there been from the republican side for him to step down? Or, at the very least, to clarify exactly what he meant? Gotta be in the hundreds, I'd imagine. The party of law and order would not stand for that kind of talk from their nominee for president.

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Posted
4 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I disagree.  They have played it perfectly.  Hiding her allowed her this moment to come out and leave people pleasantly surprised; there would be nowhere near this amount of excitement/momentum if she’d been out front the last 4 years.  It also prevented her from saying/doing something that could have taken this opportunity away from her.

But you still don’t think she’s cool….

 

The Office Ryan GIF

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Posted
4 minutes ago, mdmost said:

 

"So what you're saying is that Trump will do such an incredible job as president, that voting won't even be necessary any more after his four years are up? Does that make sense in your head, Senator?"

(... is what he didn't say. He instead thanked him and ended the interview.)

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Posted
47 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It's the first time a lot of people have heard it, and it's the third time I've heard it today, which tells me somebody is pushing it.   PA is so important I still like Shapiro more than a Kelly nod, but Shapiro has downsides I wouldn't want unless there was upside to Shapiro that they couldn't get elsewhere. I do think Harris can win PA on her own with Casey on the ballot if she has momentum going into October and a good running mate who can do well in either Wisconsin and Michigan (Walz) or North Carolina and Georgia (Bashear and Cooper). 

iirc there was an article published about Shapiro in The New Republic 4 days ago. Also as he's been frequently rumored as the top or best choice, people at bluesky are citing his pretty strong negatives. 

Posted
4 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I disagree.  They have played it perfectly.  Hiding her allowed her this moment to come out and leave people pleasantly surprised; there would be nowhere near this amount of excitement/momentum if she’d been out front the last 4 years.  It also prevented her from saying/doing something that could have taken this opportunity away from her.

 

4 hours ago, tbone_ said:


If that’s true it was by design but just dumb luck.

 

4 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:


1000x this. I have a conservative non Trumper friend who has always said this. He said he could’ve more easily convinced more of his skeptical conservative friends to get off the crazy train if she’d been out front more.

The other side of this is the gop would have run their quite effective misogyny machine on her like they did Hillary, AOC, etc. if she’s been more visible.

In any case I’m happy where we are now.

I wonder if the decision for Biden to drop out came much earlier but they held off until after the R convention. If not then happy coincidence but if I was in charge I would have planned it that way. 

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Posted
I'm liking Walz more and more, especially if we're leaning into contrasts
Harris is young, smart, energetic, black, and a prosecutor, while Trump is the opposite of all those things.
Walz is genuine, fun, witty, kind, and he looks older than he is, while Vance is the opposite of those things. He crushes the "beer test" in the Rust Belt, and probably also in the Sun Belt. Only reason not to go with Walz is if the background check turns up something bad

I dunno, be careful what you look for. That background check may reveal that one time, he opted for the grilled chicken sandwich instead of a cheeseburger at the local diner. That’s a commie move for sure.
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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


I dunno, be careful what you look for. That background check may reveal that one time, he opted for the grilled chicken sandwich instead of a cheeseburger at the local diner. That’s a commie move for sure.

Heard him on tv today talking about having a Juicy Lucy last night

Edited by tx ind
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Posted
50 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So Florida has, please verify or correct me- 1) legal pot 2) abortion protection 3) POC at the top of the ticket all on the ballot in November?  

Yup.

It would be a blockbuster upset if either of the ballot measures pass due to needing 60% +1. However, IMHO, if the margin on that ends up anywhere close to passing, that means massive problems for the rest of the GOP ticket downballot. I don't know if that would get Harris across, but could it bury Tim Scott? Yup.

As for Walz, the only question mark I can remember is that he was falsely accused of embellishing his rank when he left the Minnesota National Guard. The public affairs officer made short work of the accusation. 

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Posted
Just now, GopherRock said:

Yup.

It would be a blockbuster upset if either of the ballot measures pass due to needing 60% +1. However, IMHO, if the margin on that ends up anywhere close to passing, that means massive problems for the rest of the GOP ticket downballot. I don't know if that would get Harris across, but could it bury Tim Scott? Yup.

As for Walz, the only question mark I can remember is that he was falsely accused of embellishing his rank when he left the Minnesota National Guard. The public affairs officer made short work of the accusation. 

Rick Scott. And dude lives and dies by 0.5-1.5% wins. He’s due to finally lose one. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, tx ind said:

Heard him on tv today talking about having a Juicy Lucy last night

I grilled juicy Lucy's last night. The only catch is that the cheese filling temperature is roughly the same as the surface of Mercury, so be careful with the first few bites  

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Posted
16 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm liking Walz more and more, especially if we're leaning into contrasts

Harris is young, smart, energetic, black, and a prosecutor, while Trump is the opposite of all those things.

Walz is genuine, fun, witty, kind, and he looks older than he is, while Vance is the opposite of those things. He crushes the "beer test" in the Rust Belt, and probably also in the Sun Belt. Only reason not to go with Walz is if the background check turns up something bad

Fun fact: Walz and Harris are the same age, born six months apart.

Harris polling a point, maybe two, better than Biden and taking the conversation to flipping Texas is Surly coaching search thread energy for sure lol

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