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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted

So, in the week of Trumpworld, we have had:

Monday and Tuesday, the eating the dogs and eating the cats shit gets going thanks to JD Vance.

Tuesday, DJT getting his ass handed to him in a debate and Taylor Swift endorsing Kamala/Walz.

Wednesday, DJT bringing 9/11 Truther Loomer to the 9/11 memorial in NYC and getting told off by a mad New Yorker while there (picked up the CSPAN mic). The world was reminded of DJT calling into a local NYC station and talking about how his building was the tallest in Lower Manhattan after the World Trade Center fell. Further, the world was also reminded how he claimed to help, etc.. but he never did. Basically, reminded that DJT is a shitty person.

Thursday, the rumors start that Loomer is in a relationship with DJT.

Weekend, we have JD Vance admitting he made all the shit in Springfield, OH up admid increasing threats of violence and refuses to apologize for it. Donald Trump Jr. is caught out with someone that isn't bass mouth Gillfoyle (once a cheater, always a cheater) in Floriday, DJT says he hates Taylor Swift, and then there is an alleged assassination attempt.

 

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Posted (edited)

If Trump wasn't such a cheating son of a bitch at golf, the woods would have been the perfect place to wait. 

Edited by Thrawn
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Posted
2 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

So, in the week of Trumpworld, we have had:

Monday and Tuesday, the eating the dogs and eating the cats shit gets going thanks to JD Vance.

Tuesday, DJT getting his ass handed to him in a debate and Taylor Swift endorsing Kamala/Walz.

Wednesday, DJT bringing 9/11 Truther Loomer to the 9/11 memorial in NYC and getting told off by a mad New Yorker while there (picked up the CSPAN mic). The world was reminded of DJT calling into a local NYC station and talking about how his building was the tallest in Lower Manhattan after the World Trade Center fell. Further, the world was also reminded how he claimed to help, etc.. but he never did. Basically, reminded that DJT is a shitty person.

Thursday, the rumors start that Loomer is in a relationship with DJT.

Weekend, we have JD Vance admitting he made all the shit in Springfield, OH up admid increasing threats of violence and refuses to apologize for it. Donald Trump Jr. is caught out with someone that isn't bass mouth Gillfoyle (once a cheater, always a cheater) in Floriday, DJT says he hates Taylor Swift, and then there is an alleged assassination attempt.

I heard that Don Jr. and Guilfoyle had already split up. Was that not the case?

Posted


Alternate Translation: Kamala wins the vast majority of scenarios where she wins the popular vote, which means my model showing Trump as the favorite contains a significant number of Trump winning the popular vote scenarios. Seems likely.
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Posted

Tomorrow is Harris' turn with the National Association of Black Journalists.  Another off-the-cuff interview that's not with our for-profit, MAGA-sympathizing media

MEDIA ADVISORY

What: The National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) will host an in-person conversation with Vice President Kamala Harris. This event will feature an interview between Vice President Harris and NABJ member journalists. It will take place in Philadelphia—a city deeply tied to NABJ’s legacy.

When: Tuesday, September 17, 2024, 2:30 p.m. EDT

Where: WHYY, Downtown Philadelphia

Who: The event will be attended by NABJ professional and student members and 100 journalism and communications students from local HBCUs will be invited. It is not a campaign event and is not open to the public.

Details:

•PolitiFact will provide real-time fact-checking of the conversation via the #NABJFactCheck social media hashtag and through a live feed on the NABJ website.

•The event will be livestreamed for those unable to attend in person on WHYY’s platforms and NABJ’s YouTube and Facebook pages.

•Registration will not be available onsite. This will be an intimate setting. Seating is limited. Members and students interested in attending must RSVP by September 16 to attend. Details regarding in-person access will be provided via NABJ’s member email system and shared with local universities.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 


Alternate Translation: Kamala wins the vast majority of scenarios where she wins the popular vote, which means my model showing Trump as the favorite contains a significant number of Trump winning the popular vote scenarios. Seems likely.

Not to state the obvious, but Trump with a 37% chance of winning the popular vote is insane. Seriously, if your model spits that out, rethink everything you're doing. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Not to state the obvious, but Trump with a 37% chance of winning the popular vote is insane. Seriously, if your model spits that out, rethink everything you're doing. 

Yeah, that’s pretty fucking stupid. A Republican has won the NPV just once since 1988 (Bush in 2004). Trump, becoming less popular by the day, is suddenly going to have a 40% chance to win the popular vote?

Sure Jan GIF

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Posted

538 - Harris 60/40

Also love how something called Atlas released a poll showing Trump up nationally 3-4 and Silver says it has a huge weight on his model. Of course it does. A poll could come out today showing Harris up 7 or 8 and he’d ensure it has little impact. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

538 - Harris 60/40

Also love how something called Atlas released a poll showing Trump up nationally 3-4 and Silver says it has a huge weight on his model. Of course it does. A poll could come out today showing Harris up 7 or 8 and he’d ensure it has little impact. 

Silver is getting paid by Thiel for all this, but once Harris wins nobody will ever have to care about him again.

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Silver is getting paid by Thiel for all this, but once Harris wins nobody will ever have to care about him again.

Oh how I wish that last part were true. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Posted
6 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Oh how I wish that last part were true. 

yeah, man.  The real money in politics these days is bald faced huckster-ism, unfortunately.

happy season 4 GIF

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Posted
41 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, that’s pretty fucking stupid. A Republican has won the NPV just once since 1988 (Bush in 2004). Trump, becoming less popular by the day, is suddenly going to have a 40% chance to win the popular vote?

Sure Jan GIF

I'm not sure how the numbers would work out, but wouldn't any statistical model give Trump a significant chance at PV victory?  The raw numbers for the 2020 election was 51.8 to 46.8 percent.  Texas was almost a flip of that result, 52.06 to 46.48 percent.  I'd believe the soundness of a model that formulated Harris had a 40% chance of winning Texas, even if I also know that there's no chance in hell of it happening.  Same for the general.  It's not like the polls or actual results are indicating a 20 point pummeling (they should, but alas).

Posted
3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Ohio?

Yeah….

Texas is more likely than Ohio. The Haitian thing isn’t going to move the needle within the state with those brain dead yokels 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

5 point shift left 

 


0.4 shift right 

There's fuckery afoot in Arizona. Maybe there's truth to the rumor about Charlie Kirk bussing "volunteers" into AZ who registered to vote.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

There's fuckery afoot in Arizona. Maybe there's truth to the rumor about Charlie Kirk bussing "volunteers" into AZ who registered to vote.

No

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Posted
Just now, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Someone want to explain to me how Arizona has voted for a D Governor and 2 D senators and last election voted Biden over Trump now will switch back to Trump?  I find this hard to believe.  

I do too. Especially with abortion on the ballot. I’m just posting as I see them

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

There's fuckery afoot in Arizona. Maybe there's truth to the rumor about Charlie Kirk bussing "volunteers" into AZ who registered to vote.

There's definitely fuckery afoot in Arizona, just like in Georgia and Pennsylvania, etc. Let's just hope Harris' win is so large, it won't make a shit.

Edited by C-Man
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Posted
28 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

There's fuckery afoot in Arizona. Maybe there's truth to the rumor about Charlie Kirk bussing "volunteers" into AZ who registered to vote.

keep in mind it’s trafalgar as well

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Someone want to explain to me how Arizona has voted for a D Governor and 2 D senators and last election voted Biden over Trump now will switch back to Trump?  I find this hard to believe.  

Really awful polling of Latino and suburban voters, especially women. Democrats are going to have a great night here.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, C-Man said:

There's definitely fuckery afoot in Arizona, just like in Georgia and Pennsylvania, etc. Let's just hope Harris' win is so large, it won't make a shit.

No matter how large of a margin she wins by there will be fuckery on the other side. They are not going to take any loss lightly.

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Posted
Just now, Zonahorn said:

Arizona soundly rejected sore losers and election deniers in 20/22. The two biggest sore losers and election deniers are at the top of the ticket. Arizona. Will. Be. Blue. I don’t give a shit what polling says.

I don’t know that I’d call it soundly in 20 with 11k margin, and then lake in 22 was 17k. I’d say both dem candidates are stronger in 24 but still feels coin flip if the state was that close to electing lake period. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Yeah….

Texas is more likely than Ohio. The Haitian thing isn’t going to move the needle within the state with those brain dead yokels 

The Haitian thing is more about hate than anything else, and there's plenty of Ohio haters.  Truth be damned.

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Posted
1 minute ago, bluto said:

I don’t know that I’d call it soundly in 20 with 11k margin, and then lake in 22 was 17k. I’d say both dem candidates are stronger in 24 but still feels coin flip if the state was that close to electing lake period. 

I would call Martha McSally losing by more votes in 2020 after she got appointed to her seat because she lost in 2018 as soundly rejecting a sore loser. Mark Kelly got more votes than President Biden. I would call Republicans losing SoS, AG, and the Gubernatorial race soundly rejecting election deniers. Especially since Republicans barely managed to win more congressional districts and a whopping one-seat majority in both chambers of the state legislature. The best news Republicans got in 22 was Tom Horne barely scraping by and Kimberly Yee getting re-elected by big margins for the state treasurer. Donald Trump and MAGA are going to lose Arizona, Bigly. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

5 point shift left 

 


0.4 shift right 

And to put the final nail in the coffin: Arizona is 53% White Non-Hispanic, not 71%, and 50-64 makes up 17% of Arizona, not 35%. Poll is bad and wrong

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

And to put the final nail in the coffin: Arizona is 53% White Non-Hispanic, not 71%, and 50-64 makes up 17% of Arizona, not 35%. Poll is bad and wrong

Is that relevant? The issue is the make up of voters, not the makeup of the population generally. You'd have to compare to the demographics of past elections to judge. 

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

And to put the final nail in the coffin: Arizona is 53% White Non-Hispanic, not 71%, and 50-64 makes up 17% of Arizona, not 35%. Poll is bad and wrong

It's def a little skewed for age - 50-64 was 26% of the electorate in 2020.  Really got oversampled there.

The race crosstabs don't look skew-y to me  - 2020 was 74% white, 19% Latino.  This poll is 71% and 19%.  Gender was also the same as 2020 - 52/48

Party ID is a little screw-y - 2020 was 26 D, 35 R, 39 I and this poll is 32 D, 33 R, 35 I

Overall, just take it for what it is - a Trafalgar poll.  We need more high quality GA, PA, AZ polls - period.

Edited by Js1
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Posted
34 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Harris has held solid leads in WI, MI and now even Trafalgar has her up in NV (by what would be a healthy margin, considering their lean)

That is 257

She has led in several high-quality NC polls - that is all she needs to put her over 270.  GA/AZ/PA is running up the score and I fully expect that she will win all 3

There's an expectation of several high-quality PA polls coming this week (FINALLY) to see where this race really is. 

Do you know of historically there is a period before election day where opinions solidify and don’t change, such that good polling/enough data in the set is fairly reflective of the final outcomes?  And if so where are we relative to that time?

Posted

 

 

So the (GOP) lawyers for West's electors argued "we're not really candidates! we don't have to comply with candidate rules!" As in other cases this cycle, that argument was completely rejected. (4/4)

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

The Haitian thing is more about hate than anything else, and there's plenty of Ohio haters.  Truth be damned.

And they picked on a group that cannot defend themselves at the ballot box. 

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Posted
Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Do you know of historically there is a period before election day where opinions solidify and don’t change, such that good polling/enough data in the set is fairly reflective of the final outcomes?  And if so where are we relative to that time?

Well this I know - I don't think there's been a change in the PV winner from who was leading post-Labor Day (margin changes, but not the overall winner).  I'd probably bank more on what the state polls look like in say, 30 days, compared to now.  Hence why I think Silver giving Trump a 40% chance of winning the PV is a joke, because Harris has been the national PV leader pre- and post-Labor day. 

For instance - in September 2020, Ann Selzer had Iowa a TIE race.  In October 2020, like the weekend prior to the election, she dropped that Trump +7 that ended up very close to the final margin.   The closer you get to Election Day, the more accurate polling should be.

Posted
1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

No

From your mouth to God's ears. My hope is that these polls are a direct consequence of Trumpworld freaking the fuck out when Fox News called AZ early for Biden.

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Posted
37 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

And they picked on a group that cannot defend themselves at the ballot box. 

Except the people targeted for repression/harassment/violence won’t be limited to Haitian immigrants who are here legally. Some citizens who happen to be black will probably also suffer. 

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