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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
Just now, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Someone want to explain to me how Arizona has voted for a D Governor and 2 D senators and last election voted Biden over Trump now will switch back to Trump?  I find this hard to believe.  

I do too. Especially with abortion on the ballot. I’m just posting as I see them

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

There's fuckery afoot in Arizona. Maybe there's truth to the rumor about Charlie Kirk bussing "volunteers" into AZ who registered to vote.

There's definitely fuckery afoot in Arizona, just like in Georgia and Pennsylvania, etc. Let's just hope Harris' win is so large, it won't make a shit.

Edited by C-Man
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Posted
28 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

There's fuckery afoot in Arizona. Maybe there's truth to the rumor about Charlie Kirk bussing "volunteers" into AZ who registered to vote.

keep in mind it’s trafalgar as well

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Someone want to explain to me how Arizona has voted for a D Governor and 2 D senators and last election voted Biden over Trump now will switch back to Trump?  I find this hard to believe.  

Really awful polling of Latino and suburban voters, especially women. Democrats are going to have a great night here.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, C-Man said:

There's definitely fuckery afoot in Arizona, just like in Georgia and Pennsylvania, etc. Let's just hope Harris' win is so large, it won't make a shit.

No matter how large of a margin she wins by there will be fuckery on the other side. They are not going to take any loss lightly.

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Posted
Just now, Zonahorn said:

Arizona soundly rejected sore losers and election deniers in 20/22. The two biggest sore losers and election deniers are at the top of the ticket. Arizona. Will. Be. Blue. I don’t give a shit what polling says.

I don’t know that I’d call it soundly in 20 with 11k margin, and then lake in 22 was 17k. I’d say both dem candidates are stronger in 24 but still feels coin flip if the state was that close to electing lake period. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Yeah….

Texas is more likely than Ohio. The Haitian thing isn’t going to move the needle within the state with those brain dead yokels 

The Haitian thing is more about hate than anything else, and there's plenty of Ohio haters.  Truth be damned.

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Posted
1 minute ago, bluto said:

I don’t know that I’d call it soundly in 20 with 11k margin, and then lake in 22 was 17k. I’d say both dem candidates are stronger in 24 but still feels coin flip if the state was that close to electing lake period. 

I would call Martha McSally losing by more votes in 2020 after she got appointed to her seat because she lost in 2018 as soundly rejecting a sore loser. Mark Kelly got more votes than President Biden. I would call Republicans losing SoS, AG, and the Gubernatorial race soundly rejecting election deniers. Especially since Republicans barely managed to win more congressional districts and a whopping one-seat majority in both chambers of the state legislature. The best news Republicans got in 22 was Tom Horne barely scraping by and Kimberly Yee getting re-elected by big margins for the state treasurer. Donald Trump and MAGA are going to lose Arizona, Bigly. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

5 point shift left 

 


0.4 shift right 

And to put the final nail in the coffin: Arizona is 53% White Non-Hispanic, not 71%, and 50-64 makes up 17% of Arizona, not 35%. Poll is bad and wrong

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

And to put the final nail in the coffin: Arizona is 53% White Non-Hispanic, not 71%, and 50-64 makes up 17% of Arizona, not 35%. Poll is bad and wrong

Is that relevant? The issue is the make up of voters, not the makeup of the population generally. You'd have to compare to the demographics of past elections to judge. 

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

And to put the final nail in the coffin: Arizona is 53% White Non-Hispanic, not 71%, and 50-64 makes up 17% of Arizona, not 35%. Poll is bad and wrong

It's def a little skewed for age - 50-64 was 26% of the electorate in 2020.  Really got oversampled there.

The race crosstabs don't look skew-y to me  - 2020 was 74% white, 19% Latino.  This poll is 71% and 19%.  Gender was also the same as 2020 - 52/48

Party ID is a little screw-y - 2020 was 26 D, 35 R, 39 I and this poll is 32 D, 33 R, 35 I

Overall, just take it for what it is - a Trafalgar poll.  We need more high quality GA, PA, AZ polls - period.

Edited by Js1
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Posted
34 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Harris has held solid leads in WI, MI and now even Trafalgar has her up in NV (by what would be a healthy margin, considering their lean)

That is 257

She has led in several high-quality NC polls - that is all she needs to put her over 270.  GA/AZ/PA is running up the score and I fully expect that she will win all 3

There's an expectation of several high-quality PA polls coming this week (FINALLY) to see where this race really is. 

Do you know of historically there is a period before election day where opinions solidify and don’t change, such that good polling/enough data in the set is fairly reflective of the final outcomes?  And if so where are we relative to that time?

Posted

 

 

So the (GOP) lawyers for West's electors argued "we're not really candidates! we don't have to comply with candidate rules!" As in other cases this cycle, that argument was completely rejected. (4/4)

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

The Haitian thing is more about hate than anything else, and there's plenty of Ohio haters.  Truth be damned.

And they picked on a group that cannot defend themselves at the ballot box. 

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Posted
Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Do you know of historically there is a period before election day where opinions solidify and don’t change, such that good polling/enough data in the set is fairly reflective of the final outcomes?  And if so where are we relative to that time?

Well this I know - I don't think there's been a change in the PV winner from who was leading post-Labor Day (margin changes, but not the overall winner).  I'd probably bank more on what the state polls look like in say, 30 days, compared to now.  Hence why I think Silver giving Trump a 40% chance of winning the PV is a joke, because Harris has been the national PV leader pre- and post-Labor day. 

For instance - in September 2020, Ann Selzer had Iowa a TIE race.  In October 2020, like the weekend prior to the election, she dropped that Trump +7 that ended up very close to the final margin.   The closer you get to Election Day, the more accurate polling should be.

Posted
1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

No

From your mouth to God's ears. My hope is that these polls are a direct consequence of Trumpworld freaking the fuck out when Fox News called AZ early for Biden.

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Posted
37 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

And they picked on a group that cannot defend themselves at the ballot box. 

Except the people targeted for repression/harassment/violence won’t be limited to Haitian immigrants who are here legally. Some citizens who happen to be black will probably also suffer. 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

To me it does not matter if born here, under legal status or illegal. This is bullshit, Nazi type propaganda and will get people killed. This will end with body count, and that could be 1 or escalate into something a hell of a lot worse.

It's what they want. Look at J6.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

It's what they want. Look at J6.

J 6 was not about body count. It was about mass hysteria and taking over the government. How many died in the Reichstag fire? Even if the Berlin FD has put it out, saving the building, etc, the action alone created what the Nazi asswipes needed to continue their propaganda rule. Every extreme group needs a date. I do not think they were going to hang all of congress, etc. I think they wanted to show that they could. Michigan is another story. There they were going to end up killing the Governor if they got away with it.

Edited by InkaUtexas
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

To me it does not matter if born here, under legal status or illegal. This is bullshit, Nazi type propaganda and will get people killed. This will end with body count, and that could be 1 or escalate into something a hell of a lot worse.

See the uptick in violence against Asians amidst Trump’s rhetoric about the “China Virus” and “Kung Flu.”

Edited by WhatTheBuck
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Posted
54 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Do you know of historically there is a period before election day where opinions solidify and don’t change, such that good polling/enough data in the set is fairly reflective of the final outcomes?  And if so where are we relative to that time?

I'm sure there's a very small percentage of people who don't decide who they're going to vote for until they get in the ballot box. In the case of Diaper Dotard, that percentage has to be very small because he's been around so long and people who aren't going to vote for him will know so far ahead of time. The more pressing and unpredictable issue for a campaign is getting their voters to take the time to vote.

Keep in mind that for every poll you see, there's not only a sampling error (the +/- 3 (or so) percentage points based on whether the sample being polled is a match to the entire voting population) but other built-in errors, such as whether the sample polled are actually likely voters.

There are barely any high-quality state polls anymore. Good polling is expensive, and our media has been captured by corporate interests which are for the most part only concerned with profits. That's why there's so many shitty national polls. It didn't used to be this way. For example, Gallup used to do public polling on behalf of media clients but there's no longer demand for the type of extensive pre-election research they'd do in the public sphere. 

Posted
41 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Except the people targeted for repression/harassment/violence won’t be limited to Haitian immigrants who are here legally. Some citizens who happen to be black will probably also suffer. 

Since Haitians is code for non-white, it might affect Usha's kids.  I only say might in terms of before the election.  They will eventually feel the hate.

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Posted
3 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I've updated my model. An upset happens in Florida.

 

image.png.b1891e5f0c4c758b8de298edddeab234.png

image.jpeg.74e4670fb99786ffc8da56c2987c9aa0.jpeg

 

But I'd like whatever you're snorting, ingesting, smoking or shooting on a Monday morning.

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Posted
43 minutes ago, Chopper said:

There are barely any high-quality state polls anymore. Good polling is expensive, and our media has been captured by corporate interests which are for the most part only concerned with profits. That's why there's so many shitty national polls. It didn't used to be this way. For example, Gallup used to do public polling on behalf of media clients but there's no longer demand for the type of extensive pre-election research they'd do in the public sphere. 

This is a big one.  You might get a handful of legitimate polling forms (Quinnipiac, Marist, NYT/Siena, Marquette, Suffolk, UMass, Selzer) and whoever CNN/Fox News contract out to, but for the most part, it's a bunch of crap, compounded by being right-wing spam crap, like Insider Advantage, Trafalgar, Emerson, etc. 

There's not too many left-wing spam polls - maybe Data for Progress. PPP used to poll A LOT back in the day, especially at the district level, and now they rarely commission a new poll. 

2016/18/20 saw a lot of really good high quality district-level polling, especially by NYT/Siena, and now - *crickets* 

Posted
2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

And they picked on a group that cannot defend themselves at the ballot box. 

This is worth repeating as it's a key facet of authoritarians.  Pick an out group and punch down on them.

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

I texted my folks about this over the weekend. They’re former Republicans who saw the light in 2020 and now vote Dem. But their friends and family are probably 80%+ MAGA imbeciles. And at least my mom refuses to consider that maybe her dear friends are shitheads. 

My point was this: Trump and Vance are spreading vile, Nazi-style blood libel. It will get people hurt or killed. Anyone who continues to support them at this point is a bad person. It doesn’t matter that they go to your church or root for the same baseball team or take good care of their lawn. We’ve seen this playbook before and everyone knows it’s evil and the key that, throughout history, opens the door to atrocity. If your friends or family vote for Trump knowing he’s scapegoating an innocent minority group for political gain, they are evil. 

And she said?

Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Just to put the cascade of lies on JUST THIS ONE TOPIC in one place:

 

459385069_10169350170725254_629687428743

“I bet that concept has no money for welfare Queens or illegal immigrants. So I’m going with Trump.”

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Posted
Just now, Loch Ness Monster said:

Anyone else more scared of JD Vance than Trump? Vance seems like the ultimate piece of shit. Trump is more clueless and wants people to tell him how great he is.

They are each equally malevolent, evil, and dangerous, just in different ways.  It's like arguing about whether your more concerned about being immolated by a volcanic eruption or smashed and drowned by a tsunami.  Both are instruments of mass destruction and suffering, just via different vehicles.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Anyone else more scared of JD Vance than Trump? Vance seems like the ultimate piece of shit. Trump is more clueless and wants people to tell him how great he is.

I would not put Vance above being LBJ in the conspiracy theory universe where he is in cahoots with Russia to Get control of the White House by any means necessary.  Even Carl Spackler on the golf course. 

Edited by TexasEd
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Posted
25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They are each equally malevolent, evil, and dangerous, just in different ways.  It's like arguing about whether your more concerned about being immolated by a volcanic eruption or smashed and drowned by a tsunami.  Both are instruments of mass destruction and suffering, just via different vehicles.

"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."  Woody Allen, "My Speech to the Graduates" 

Posted
6 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

I would not put Vance above being LBJ in the conspiracy theory universe where he is in cahoots with Russia to Get control of the White House by any means necessary.  Even Carl Spackler on the golf course. 

I take umbrage at you putting Vance and LBJ in the same sentence.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

My point was this: Trump and Vance are spreading vile, Nazi-style blood libel. It will get people hurt or killed. Anyone who continues to support them at this point is a bad person. It doesn’t matter that they go to your church or root for the same baseball team or take good care of their lawn. We’ve seen this playbook before and everyone knows it’s evil and the key that, throughout history, opens the door to atrocity. If your friends or family vote for Trump knowing he’s scapegoating an innocent minority group for political gain, they are evil. 

Immigrants and minorities have always been targeted for blame. Hell during the Great Depression we rounded up LEGAL Mexican nationality but American born citizens and deported them. Or convinced Ford to lay them off so America could get rid of them.

Most of my MAGA family members are scared immigrants are taking jobs and their children's future jobs. They are definitely mostly pieces of shit but that's the reasoning. That and 90% of the people around them are Republicans and don't want to be an outcast.

Something ridiculous like 50% of Americans can't afford a $500 unexpected expense. They are struggling and want someone to blame.

Edited by Loch Ness Monster
Posted
2 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Immigrants and minorities have always been targeted for blame. Hell during the Great Depression we rounded up LEGAL Mexican nationality but American born citizens and deported them. Or convinced Ford to lay them off so America could get rid of them.

Most of my MAGA family members are scared immigrants are taking jobs and their children's future jobs. They are definitely mostly pieces of shit but that's the reasoning. That and 90% of the people around them are Republicans and don't want to be an outcast.

Hit 'em with this...

schr%C3%B6dingers-immigrant-v0-5d95b18w5

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