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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
2 hours ago, Thrawn said:

I really hope he tries to sell that stock in the open market. He will still make a nice chunk of change, but he will completely fuck over the other share holders. Not that they aren’t already feeling that pain currently.

Of course, if he is smart he would arrange a transaction.  Then again, he did actually run a casino into bankruptcy.

Yeah, so ... think about that for a second. Holy shit.

Posted
2 hours ago, coachherman'sgrill said:

Super dumb question but what was Trump doing there? I ask because it’s not his home, right? It can’t be his home because of tax reasons if I remember correctly. So why is he always there? And when is Mar-A-Lago going to be seized? Isn’t he still in the hook for around 500 million??

I’d also like to know why he isn’t ever in NYC. Seriously, how can people not see this guy for who he is? He can’t be living in NYC because I’m sure that’s Melania’s place for now and he can’t live in FL or it could be seized. He’s homeless and such a POS. 

Given that he stated how he'd vote on the abortion referendum in Florida, I'm gonna guess that he's registered to vote there -- meaning Florida is his declared residence. Now, I do understand that he's got some sort of sweet property tax deal for Mar-a-Lago as a club/hotel (but not a residence). So the only logical response is that some governor whose name rhymes a bit with Yawn de Taint Piss is letting him get away with tax/voter fraud in that state.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Having a real hard time reconciling the possibility that a D senator is polling 8 points or greater over a R, and a D presidential candidate is in a dead heat.

 

 

Why? Casey won by 9 in 2012 while Obama won by 5. Outran him by 4 points. Casey has been an incumbent since he won in 2006. Incumbents generally do better 

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Having a real hard time reconciling the possibility that a D senator is polling 8 points or greater over a R, and a D presidential candidate is in a dead heat.

 

 

Same in Arizona. 

Posted

The PA polls coming fast - WAPO Harris +1, NYT/Siena Harris - +4

Emerson dropped a bunch of meh polls with Trump up 3 in GA, up 1 in AZ/WI/PA, tied in NV, Harris +2 MI and +1 NC, but they are consistently pro-GOP

I guess Wed/Thurs are poll days. Wonder if we get Fox News ones this evening 

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Posted
11 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Counterpoint:  we have a regular UPS driver who comes in, makes small talk with the secretaries up front, then proceeds to spend about 10 minutes taking a shit in our public bathroom, then will fetch himself a bottle of water from our breakroom.  

Are you disgruntled because your office is next to the facilities or the fact this man is most likely using your bottled water as a make shift bidet?  

DSC01508-scaled.jpeg

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Posted
1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

Gee, that sounds like something a God-forsaken Democrat might propose.

 

 

 

 

Trump’s business supporters will ignore this and refuse to comment on its absurdity but they also know that he has no power to do this. They understand it’s a lie for the rubes.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

In what world does this make sense?

It doesn’t. There is no world where she’s up in PA and tied nationally. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Having a real hard time reconciling the possibility that a D senator is polling 8 points or greater over a R, and a D presidential candidate is in a dead heat.

 

 

"Trump only" voters - they are only replying to the Harris/Trump question and not the others. 

4 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

In what world does this make sense?

One where the sample sets are different. 

It's a margin of error thing. Put it on the pile for the average.

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Posted
31 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

 

Trump = Pro Inflation

21 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Geez. He will really promise anything at this point.

Surprised he hasn’t promised the incel guys that he will fly in Eastern European women for them.

He'll set up a crypto based mail order service too bad the perfect name is already taken, Amazon.  We need to workshop the names,  Glamazon, V-bay, realdolls, Epsteingirls, Alibabes...

 

Posted
2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Fucking Pennsylvania man. 

I mean, bitch and moan, but here's all the post-debate PA polls.  Only 1 bad poll there (Insider Advantage, a right-wing spam poll) 

Suffolk - Harris +3 (49-46)
Insider Advantage (GOP) - Trump +2 (50-48)
Q-Pac - Harris +6 (51-45)
Marist - TIE (49-49)
Franklin & Marshall - Harris +3 (49-46)
Emerson (GOP) - TIE (49-49)
NYT/Siena - Harris +4 (51-47)
WAPO - Harris +1 (48-47)

Average: Harris +1.9 (49.3-47.4)

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Posted
7 minutes ago, G650 said:

Nate Cohn actually wrote an article about it this morning

What’s clear is that recent results from higher-quality polls are very different from those of the last presidential election. If true, it would suggest that Mr. Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College, relative to the popular vote, has declined significantly since 2020.

This wouldn’t come from nowhere: Almost exactly one year ago, I wrote that there were signs that Mr. Trump’s Electoral College advantage edge was fading, including in the 2022 midterm elections. In fact, today’s poll result is reminiscent of our polling ahead of the midterms, which found Republicans leading nationally but Democrats running strong in Pennsylvania and other battlegrounds. It was hard to believe given recent history — I didn’t believe it, and neither did others pollsters I spoke with — but it turned out to be right.

We will re-examine the case for a fading Trump Electoral College advantage soon, including a dive into the geographic distribution of his strength in Times/Siena national surveys over the last year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/upshot/harris-trump-poll-pennsylvania.html

That is why everyone who believes that Harris needs win by 3+ to win the EC aren't correct - I think it was calculated that she can win by a little as +1.5 and still win the EC.  But obviously, more is better. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, bitch and moan, but here's all the post-debate PA polls.  Only 1 bad poll there (Insider Advantage, a right-wing spam poll) 

Suffolk - Harris +3 (49-46)
Insider Advantage (GOP) - Trump +2 (50-48)
Q-Pac - Harris +6 (51-45)
Marist - TIE (49-49)
Franklin & Marshall - Harris +3 (49-46)
Emerson (GOP) - TIE (49-49)
NYT/Siena - Harris +4 (51-47)
WAPO - Harris +1 (48-47)

Average: Harris +1.9 (49.3-47.4)

It's more frustration than bitching and moaning. That being said, for context, I was still nervous well into the 3rd quarter of the Michigan game. 

PA just feels much more sticky and not moving positively towards Harris with the momentum we see in other places. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, bitch and moan, but here's all the post-debate PA polls.  Only 1 bad poll there (Insider Advantage, a right-wing spam poll) 

Suffolk - Harris +3 (49-46)
Insider Advantage (GOP) - Trump +2 (50-48)
Q-Pac - Harris +6 (51-45)
Marist - TIE (49-49)
Franklin & Marshall - Harris +3 (49-46)
Emerson (GOP) - TIE (49-49)
NYT/Siena - Harris +4 (51-47)
WAPO - Harris +1 (48-47)

Average: Harris +1.9 (49.3-47.4)

Collectively, it still seems "tied" for the moment.  By that, I mean that Harris hasn't conclusively broken out beyond the margin of error.  She likely is trending in the right direction, but we need a bit more time to see if she can establish a lead outside the margin of error.  

Posted
1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Biden won it by 1.1% in 2020. That's probably about right.

The question might be what Biden was polled to win it by in 2020, versus the results. I realize there's the whole not counting "I'm voting Trump" hang up calls, from then to now, but that might be interesting.

Posted
1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

There would be a mushroom cloud where the Fox News headquarters used to be if Kamala loses the popular vote but wins the EC.

Dotard: "Nothing like this has ever happened before!!"

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Posted
1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

There would be a mushroom cloud where the Fox News headquarters used to be if Kamala loses the popular vote but wins the EC.

Trump has never lost the real popular vote. Haven't you been paying attention the last 8 years?

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Posted (edited)

Also remember that:

Harris is likely up 3-4 on average - the range of outcomes can be anywhere from Trump +1/tied to Harris +6 or 7 (that whole MOE thing).  I laugh at some polls for being bad, but kudos to high-quality pollsters, like NYT/Siena, who publish their results regardless of what others are seeing.  Takes away the herding.  This still showed movement towards Harris.  

But she's not losing the popular vote and it won't be tied, lol.

She doesn't need to win the PV by much to win the EC.   Hell, Dems almost won the House in 2022 and lost the national margin by 2.2 points.  

If she's tied nationally and still somehow up 4 in PA, she's already won MI/WI and probably NV and won the EC

Edited by Js1
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Posted

It looks like the big ticket items on election night to get an early victory for Harris will be NC. 

https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/election-results/election-night-reporting-timeline

PA and GA took forever last time, although it's now clear how much of that was re-counts or not. I think PA didn't start counting mail-ins until after polls closed, where NC already has them counted and dumps them into the pool almost immediately. Who else will we likely get defined answers on election night that swing things one way or another?

Posted
4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It looks like the big ticket items on election night to get an early victory for Harris will be NC. 

https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/election-results/election-night-reporting-timeline

PA and GA took forever last time, although it's now clear how much of that was re-counts or not. I think PA didn't start counting mail-ins until after polls closed, where NC already has them counted and dumps them into the pool almost immediately. Who else will we likely get defined answers on election night that swing things one way or another?

I started to write a reply that PA should adjust their counting procedures to avoid the ballot conspiracies. Then I realized that there is no end to the right's conspiracies. You can keep addressing their concerns, and they will always have another concern if they lose.

They don't even trust each other when it comes to primary ballot counting. I believe they've run off more GOP election officials than Dems.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

 

So you're essentially creating a policy that will force credit card companies to stop issuing cards to Americans with poor credit - essentially, the Americans you're (I assume) trying to help here. Love it when policy just ends up shooting itself in the foot.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It looks like the big ticket items on election night to get an early victory for Harris will be NC. 

https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/election-results/election-night-reporting-timeline

PA and GA took forever last time, although it's now clear how much of that was re-counts or not. I think PA didn't start counting mail-ins until after polls closed, where NC already has them counted and dumps them into the pool almost immediately. Who else will we likely get defined answers on election night that swing things one way or another?

The big thing with PA was the vote by mail was ridiculously slow to count and there was A LOT of it (1.5 million ballots).  The one good thing about it not being a COVID election is that most voters have indicated in PA polling is that they are going to vote in person.  I think Suffolk had it 72/25 or something, which was similar to 2022, and Fetterman was declared the winner at 1am eastern time. 

The media was able to declare Whitmer the winner just after midnight in Michigan; it took until the next morning for Ron Johnson to be declared the winner in Wisconsin.  

I think we will get Election Night calls in NC, MI, PA and possibly Wisconsin, unless it's decided by 26k votes like the 2022 senate race was.  GA may take a while, but the 2022 run-off was called right after midnight and it was a high turnout runoff - 3.5m votes and 2020 was 4.8m. 

Not even going to bother with AZ and NV, but with NV, whatever Ralston says the day before the Election, that's what I am going with, because he picks the winners.

Edited by Js1
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I think we will get Election Night calls in NC, MI, PA and possibly Wisconsin

Oh good, we will get to hear Dotard's concession speech before going to bed.

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Posted
1 minute ago, dieucla98 said:

So you're essentially creating a policy that will force credit card companies to stop issuing cards to Americans with poor credit - essentially, the Americans you're (I assume) trying to help here. Love it when policy just ends up shooting itself in the foot.

Forget stop issuing the cards. They would immediately lower all credit limits if not terminate any new charges,  if banks could only charge 10%.

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Posted
1 hour ago, locodos said:

Are you disgruntled because your office is next to the facilities or the fact this man is most likely using your bottled water as a make shift bidet?  

DSC01508-scaled.jpeg

IMG_0041.gif.d6e4e00045d647d4dae1bb3eff20587f.gif

 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

You know it is pretty weird that only swing states are stolen from Dotard. The dems somehow never steal, say, Oklahoma or Mississippi. 

If the Dems were smart, they'd steal FL and Texas and he'd have no chance to win. 

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