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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

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4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Georgia over night data dump takeaways:

1.  1.936 million have now voted.  (A bit lower than the news reported last night, I'll give them a bit of leeway).  

2.  1.522 million voted early in 2020

3.  Women now outpaces men in voting by 214k or 55.3 to 44.2%

4.  Election day voters from 2020 represent 110k of the turnout or 5.7%

5.  2020 non voters represent 304k or 15.7%

So where are the non 2020 voters coming from?

Democratic Strongholds - Bibb County 2.2k

Chatham County - 10k

Clayton County - 6.4k

Cobb County - 22k

Dekalb County - 20k

Fayette County - 5k

Fulton County - 39k

Gwinnett County - 23k

Muscogee County - 4.8k

Richmond County - 3.4k

So of the new votes, regardless of demographics, 133k come from major democratic strongholds.  (This obviously doesn't include every Democratic county - there are 159 total county here, just the major ones).  Based on that, my guess is that at least 50% of the 2020 nonvoters are in Democratic areas. 

 

randy-marsh-south-park.gif | BigFooty Forum

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

Yep.  It could be video evidence of him killing babies and it wouldn't matter.  We are through the looking glass.

Just now, Pancho said:

I’m starting to think it was Rogan who told the Harris folks “no” and not the other way around.

I also blame Rogan for last Saturday.

I blame him for most things.

9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

One of you quants needs to book mark this site and get back to us around 7:30 pm on election night please. No one wants me doing math. 

Earlier than that, bro.  Those states close at 6pm CT (full or partially).  That shit needs to pinned/bumped at 5:59pm.

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Georgia over night data dump takeaways:

1.  1.936 million have now voted.  (A bit lower than the news reported last night, I'll give them a bit of leeway).  

2.  1.522 million voted early in 2020

3.  Women now outpaces men in voting by 214k or 55.3 to 44.2%

4.  Election day voters from 2020 represent 110k of the turnout or 5.7%

5.  2020 non voters represent 304k or 15.7%

So where are the non 2020 voters coming from?

Democratic Strongholds - Bibb County 2.2k

Chatham County - 10k

Clayton County - 6.4k

Cobb County - 22k

Dekalb County - 20k

Fayette County - 5k

Fulton County - 39k

Gwinnett County - 23k

Muscogee County - 4.8k

Richmond County - 3.4k

So of the new votes, regardless of demographics, 133k come from major democratic strongholds.  (This obviously doesn't include every Democratic county - there are 159 total county here, just the major ones).  Based on that, my guess is that at least 50% of the 2020 nonvoters are in Democratic areas. 

 

Okay, but how does this compare to @Slacks anecdotal conversation? 

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4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

Spill it. Who gives a shit if you can't confirm it. Trump and Vance are out there making up as much bullshit as possible and people are believing it.

4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

Mark Halperin fighting for relevance.

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3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

Halperin won't publish it because his employer would never allow it (Newsmax)

Like bro, Game Change came out 14 years ago - you aren't relevant anymore.  No one credible sits on a huge news story in October FOR A WEEK that could upend a presidential race.  He could break that story, if it existed, and start his next book, if it was real. 

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

Hey fuckhead, you've had a fucking week to vet the story. Either fucking publish, or don't mention it becuase you can't confirm it. Clearly other outlets are having the same struggle. 

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I’m starting to think it was Rogan who told the Harris folks “no” and not the other way around.

I also blame Rogan for last Saturday.

If Rogan was smart, he'd let Trump on first, and then he'd bring on Harris 2 days later. 

2 hours ago, G650 said:

Its wild you say that, I was actually pondering that exact thing on my way to work

TIPP moves 4 points to Harris +2
Economist (YouGov) Harris +3
Morning Consult Harris +4
Ipsos Harris +2
The Times of London (YouGov) Harris +3

The only "bad" poll that came out yesterday was Redfield & Winton with Trump +2, but that's right wing Tory garbage. 

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I tend to roll my eyes when celebrities talk politics, and while this is not a new thought by any means, Keaton is absolutely correct. It mystifies me how Trump supporters don't see this. 

 

2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:


I mean this genuinely, how do we function as a society when we have people like Vance openly stating that he wants to eliminate the WAY HIS WIFE BECAME A CITIZEN and there’s no pushback, no news stories, no controversy. Just business as usual and follow the cult leader at all costs.

And they have everyday Americans talking this way.  A buddy of mine taken in by Fox News talks openly about closing the border completely.  He's the son of an immigrant himself.  When I point that out, he just says it's different now, man.

Fox News has created a completely malleable mob.  They will believe, and they will do, whatever they are told.

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

TIPP moves 4 points to Harris +2
Economist (YouGov) Harris +3
Morning Consult Harris +4
Ipsos Harris +2
The Times of London (YouGov) Harris +3

The only "bad" poll that came out yesterday was Redfield & Winton with Trump +2, but that's right wing Tory garbage. 

Is there a way to see an aggregate of the polls that remove left and right leaning pollster?

16 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

there are 159 total county here,

I used to think Texas was ridiculous with 254 counties, until I learned Georgia has 159 counties with 19 million fewer people and Virginia with 133 with 2 million fewer people than Georgia. 

And somehow Kansas has 105 counties with only 2.9 million people! Illinois has 3 fewer counties and 10 million more residents than Kansas. 

43 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I was looking for something like this, and I'll probably repost it on Election Day

https://medium.com/@tcb.dna/what-early-reporting-counties-can-tell-us-about-the-2024-election-74fa50662cbb

tldr; there's a handful of counties in KY and IN (the 2 states where polls close first) that will tell us a lot.  If these counties shift left at all, even half a percent, a good night for Harris.  A small shift right - a long night/week.  A decent shift right - ugh, start drinking. 

How can someone track county by county results in real time on election day?  

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Is there a way to see an aggregate of the polls that remove left and right leaning pollster?

A few. Split Ticket is really my favorite of the aggregators - they're the most transparent in their methodology. 

While not excluding all right/left leaning pollsters, ST does remove 2 of the worst in ActiVote and Trafalgar, and they, unlike other aggregators like RCP, do weigh based on quality of the polling company. 

https://split-ticket.org/2024-presidential-polling-averages/

 

2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How can someone track county by county results in real time on election day?  

Turn on your TV and watch Steve Kornaki geek out and change his khakis once an hour? 

38 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Yeah, those things aren't important in a leader, but have you not seen the price of eggs and milk?  Also, the leftist liberals want to turn our boys into girls at school when we aren't looking.  It has to be true because I heard it on Fox News. These are the things important to the ignorant masses.

spacer.png You're right, my friend.

20 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I’m starting to think it was Rogan who told the Harris folks “no” and not the other way around.

I also blame Rogan for last Saturday.

Second I saw his face immediately thought… “oh noooo” 

23 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

“I’ve been pitched a story about Donald Trump now for about a week, that if True, would end his campaign.” but I'm going to sit on the story until months after the election and put it in my next book.

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

TIPP moves 4 points to Harris +2
Economist (YouGov) Harris +3
Morning Consult Harris +4
Ipsos Harris +2
The Times of London (YouGov) Harris +3

The only "bad" poll that came out yesterday was Redfield & Winton with Trump +2, but that's right wing Tory garbage. 

So the Democratic Presidential turnout last time around was 81.1 million, while the Republican turnout was 74.2 million or 52.2% to 47.7%, so basically a 4.5% spread.  The real question here, as far I am concerned is, where is Trump actually picking up votes to close this gap?  I don't see it, turnout is extraordinarily high, everywhere.  However, even if you were to get into slanted distribution going the Republican way (which isn't happening), in order for Trump to reasonably close the gap to say 2% would required significant unequal distribution of almost 5 million votes, and if distribution is moderate but still in Republican favor, the total number of votes needed to close that number goes up dramatically.  So basically, it becomes the stuff of unicorns, like Trump picking up 10 million votes against last time against a turnout increase of 14 million (that's not happening).  

There is only one side here with enthused turnout, and yet the polls would have us believe this has narrowed?  This is bumpkiss.  The electoral college is a fickle bitch, so there is still a path for Republicans, but the idea that the national popularity contest has narrowed by any significant margin is nonsense.  

53 minutes ago, Js1 said:

start drinking. 

Start?

10 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

They will believe, and they will do, whatever they are told.

I saw a bumper sticker a couple of weeks ago that said "If they can get you to believe absurdities, they can get you to commit atrocities."  

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Turn on your TV and watch Steve Kornaki geek out and change his khakis once an hour? 

Yeah, but the chances of him covering this particular list of counties in a timely manner is not great.

12 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I tend to roll my eyes when celebrities talk politics, and while this is not a new thought by any means, Keaton is absolutely correct. It mystifies me how Trump supporters don't see this. 

 

Whatever it takes . . . .

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Just now, South Austin said:

Whatever it takes . . . .

270, 271....

Just now, BamaATL said:

So the Democratic Presidential turnout last time around was 81.1 million, while the Republican turnout was 74.2 million or 52.2% to 47.7%, so basically a 4.5% spread.  The real question here, as far I am concerned is, where is Trump actually picking up votes to close this gap?  I don't see it, turnout is extraordinarily high, everywhere.  However, even if you were to get into slanted distribution going the Republican way (which isn't happening), in order for Trump to reasonably close the gap to say 2% would required significant unequal distribution of almost 5 million votes, and if distribution is moderate but still in Republican favor, the total number of votes needed to close that number goes up dramatically.  So basically, it becomes the stuff of unicorns, like Trump picking up 10 million votes against last time against a turnout increase of 14 million (that's not happening).  

There is only one side here with enthused turnout, and yet the polls would have us believe this has narrowed?  This is bumpkiss.  The electoral college is a fickle bitch, so there is still a path for Republicans, but the idea that the national popularity contest has narrowed by any significant margin is nonsense.  

Well if the polls are allegedly ensuring Trump voters get counted more in polling than Harris voters, that's why. 

But there is the possibility of Trump closing the PV gap by winning more votes in safe blue states like CA/NY that don't flip them, but losing the electoral college because Harris still wins MI/PA/WI.  But that is basing a lot on 2022, when the GOP did better than expected in CA/NY, and worse than predicted in the Midwest. 

1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yeah, but the chances of him covering this particular list of counties in a timely manner is not great.

NYT/DDHQ/Politico usually have pretty good statewide maps where you can click on specific counties. 

Oh that reminds me, I am guessing The Needle will be back for Election Day.  Can't wait......

3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

So the Democratic Presidential turnout last time around was 81.1 million, while the Republican turnout was 74.2 million or 52.2% to 47.7%, so basically a 4.5% spread.  The real question here, as far I am concerned is, where is Trump actually picking up votes to close this gap?  I don't see it, turnout is extraordinarily high, everywhere.  However, even if you were to get into slanted distribution going the Republican way (which isn't happening), in order for Trump to reasonably close the gap to say 2% would required significant unequal distribution of almost 5 million votes, and if distribution is moderate but still in Republican favor, the total number of votes needed to close that number goes up dramatically.  So basically, it becomes the stuff of unicorns, like Trump picking up 10 million votes against last time against a turnout increase of 14 million (that's not happening).  

There is only one side here with enthused turnout, and yet the polls would have us believe this has narrowed?  This is bumpkiss.  The electoral college is a fickle bitch, so there is still a path for Republicans, but the idea that the national popularity contest has narrowed by any significant margin is nonsense.  


Electoral college bro.  It came down to a few thousand votes in a few states 4 years ago. And 8 years ago. And most likely this year. 

2 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Electoral college bro.  It came down to a few thousand votes in a few states 4 years ago. And 8 years ago. And most likely this year. 

Backward country is backward.

There’s going to be a lot of shocked Pikachu faces about Nevada this year considering the automatic voter registration law that went into effect a few years ago automatically registers you unaffiliated unless you choose otherwise. Because they are primary young voters being labeled independent as soon as they turn 18

The demographics of the independent voters, especially in Vegas, heavily favor Harris. Young voters increasingly don’t want to affiliate with either party formally, but we all know they vote primarily Democrat 

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For what it's worth, my last shot at persuading people on Facebook. If anyone finds it useful, you're welcome to use any part of it.

image.png.96c55613ef983d37058c4f8390475a0a.png

11 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

So the Democratic Presidential turnout last time around was 81.1 million, while the Republican turnout was 74.2 million or 52.2% to 47.7%, so basically a 4.5% spread.  The real question here, as far I am concerned is, where is Trump actually picking up votes to close this gap?  I don't see it, turnout is extraordinarily high, everywhere.  However, even if you were to get into slanted distribution going the Republican way (which isn't happening), in order for Trump to reasonably close the gap to say 2% would required significant unequal distribution of almost 5 million votes, and if distribution is moderate but still in Republican favor, the total number of votes needed to close that number goes up dramatically.  So basically, it becomes the stuff of unicorns, like Trump picking up 10 million votes against last time against a turnout increase of 14 million (that's not happening).  

There is only one side here with enthused turnout, and yet the polls would have us believe this has narrowed?  This is bumpkiss.  The electoral college is a fickle bitch, so there is still a path for Republicans, but the idea that the national popularity contest has narrowed by any significant margin is nonsense.  

there was an article about this a while back - it's Trump picking up some support in Democratic strongholds like NY and CA. 

To use a recruiting analogy - he's "filling up on bread." These changes won't have an impact on the outcome.

30 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

If Rogan was smart…,

IMG_2803.gif.a9772d056e085933945c8111301f7fb7.gif

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There’s going to be a lot of shocked Pikachu faces about Nevada this year considering the automatic voter registration law that went into effect a few years ago automatically registers you unaffiliated unless you choose otherwise. Because they are primary young voters being labeled independent as soon as they turn 18

The demographics of the independent voters, especially in Vegas, heavily favor Harris. Young voters increasingly don’t want to affiliate with either party formally, but we all know they vote primarily Democrat 

Snoop Dogg Smoking GIF by BrownSugarApp

I'll take all the copium you got. 

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

there was an article about this a while back - it's Trump picking up some support in Democratic strongholds like NY and CA. 

To use a recruiting analogy - he's "filling up on bread." These changes won't have an impact on the outcome.

Filling up on bread is almost a perfect analogy 

Just now, Bateshorn said:

Snoop Dogg Smoking GIF by BrownSugarApp

I'll take all the copium you got. 

There’s a reason unaffiliated is now the largest voting demo in NV. And unaffiliated mail returns in Clark are now second to the Dems 

I saw that one stat about an increase of 248% among African-American women voters in…Georgia was it?  Yeah, they are disaffected Democrats voting for Trump..

IMG_3611.gif.0ddeaa3618e5a2cef3e8ad49cf67b844.gif

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There’s going to be a lot of shocked Pikachu faces about Nevada this year considering the automatic voter registration law that went into effect a few years ago automatically registers you unaffiliated unless you choose otherwise. Because they are primary young voters being labeled independent as soon as they turn 18

The demographics of the independent voters, especially in Vegas, heavily favor Harris. Young voters increasingly don’t want to affiliate with either party formally, but we all know they vote primarily Democrat 

Yeah but the young people have to show up to vote.

Granted less of a concern in Presidential elections than the other ones.

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8 hours ago, Slacks said:

Anecdotal... I spoke to some men today - just a few, but enough... different races, education levels, economics. They were all in Texas, so no EC effect, but it wasn't even close. I was surprised. 

Generally speaking, I don't think presidents change my life, so... I'm not concerned, but feel I should be.

 

It’s true. Men in Texas are not responding well to the 12oz roll or sage blend. There are indications that until the 16oz roll is returned to market they will go back to making their own sausage like they did thirty years ago, despite agreeing that it’s not as good.

21 hours ago, Podrick's Magic Cock said:

If Trump wins this I'm rooting for a meteor, nukes flying, or the Yellowstone caldera to pop off.  What's the point of living if all these terrible people are in positions of power?  People suck.

Lando Calrissian is my role model for when the going gets tough and the assholes take over.  Going to get by until my time comes to strike.   

if only just to use the line "hello what have we here?" just once before I die.  I've come so close but I never have the balls.

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It’s true. Men in Texas are not responding well to the 12oz roll or sage blend. There are indications that until the 16oz roll is returned to market they will go back to making their own sausage like they did thirty years ago, despite agreeing that it’s not as good.

Is this some gay subcode?  Because....it feels like it. 

1 minute ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Is that bad?  

It's bad, isn't it?

It doesn't feel good.  What doesn't make sense to me is how Nevada is so out of line with PA and GA. Straight Crazy pills. 

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

For reference, the non-Clark/Washoe parts of NV were about 180k votes out of 1.4 million total statewide. Clark is almost a million by itself and Washoe is a quarter million.

GOP will run out of rural votes pretty quickly 

rurals at 24% of 2020

Washoe at 19%

Clark at 24%
 

Edited by Js1

52 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Okay, but how does this compare to @Slacks anecdotal conversation? 

Well, you see, the restraining order between Hall and Oates comes into play.

Hold on, let me workshop that a bit and get back to you.

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