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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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9 hours ago, Chopper said:

So, the Washington Post...

oh-jesus-christ-stu-berks.gif

Yesterday published a map and database that looked like this

image.thumb.png.f2f9c316e2ed789adb04e988eeedfb84.png

Then they realized they missed something and tonight they made a correction:

image.thumb.png.6f42962863deb210785df9e7c0ca1d3d.png

and now the map looks like this

image.thumb.png.52bfcd890bcc8210cf988e66c13ff400.png

image.thumb.png.0999c766e1ec429d23bb3c287cb83bbc.png

The incompetent fucks somehow left out donations to the Trump National Committee. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/trump-harris-donors-zip-code-map/

Maybe they were just trying to distinguish between money that went to his actual campaign vs money that went to to his legal bills…

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8 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

no, its very useful.

Spockvarietyhour: does anyone understand a word I'm saying here?...

dd2731d7-22be-462b-ba27-3578c1016e52_tex

 

 

9 hours ago, Chopper said:

So, the Washington Post...

oh-jesus-christ-stu-berks.gif

Yesterday published a map and database that looked like this

image.thumb.png.f2f9c316e2ed789adb04e988eeedfb84.png

Then they realized they missed something and tonight they made a correction:

image.thumb.png.6f42962863deb210785df9e7c0ca1d3d.png

and now the map looks like this

image.thumb.png.52bfcd890bcc8210cf988e66c13ff400.png

image.thumb.png.0999c766e1ec429d23bb3c287cb83bbc.png

The incompetent fucks somehow left out donations to the Trump National Committee. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/trump-harris-donors-zip-code-map/

oh.   that's . . . . very different than what i saw

9 hours ago, wood said:

Pretty strong contrast there between San Marcos and NB. WTF, New Braunfels? Also a little surprised to see Williamson County, Bastrop, and Buda/Kyle so blue and Bastrop & Lockhart blue at all. Good to see.

See how your neighborhood is giving to Harris and Trump - Washington Post - Google Chrome 10_24_2024 11_25_00 PM.png

The surprise to me is how blue Wilco is north of Round Rock. There are great opportunities for the TDP to flip some more offices here but the incumbents from the GOP keep getting re-elected due to the power of incumbency.

That and people here are still pretty conservative - they just don't like crazy.

Don't know how to feel about the latest NYT Siena poll. I'm very conscious about not huffing pure copium, but at the same time, I have a hard time believing that Trump legitimately has even odds to win the popular vote and that Harris actually lost 3 points nationally within the last 3 weeks. This is such a weird cycle. 

1 minute ago, trythisathome said:

Don't know how to feel about the latest NYT Siena poll. I'm very conscious about not huffing pure copium, but at the same time, I have a hard time believing that Trump legitimately has even odds to win the popular vote and that Harris actually lost 3 points nationally within the last 3 weeks. This is such a weird cycle. 

Nothing at all has moved the popular vote 3 points right.  Nothing has moved this race more than a point in either direction in the last 6 fucking weeks. 

NYT/Siena's national polling has been super fucking Trump friendly. 

I really hope the outcome of this election ends the marriage between polling and the mainstream media.

But I know better.

3 minutes ago, trythisathome said:

Don't know how to feel about the latest NYT Siena poll. I'm very conscious about not huffing pure copium, but at the same time, I have a hard time believing that Trump legitimately has even odds to win the popular vote and that Harris actually lost 3 points nationally within the last 3 weeks. This is such a weird cycle. 

Bread.

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11 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

The people who majored in a liberal arts major and didn’t dual or tri major are wastoids.

it has been my experience that people with a broad liberal arts educational background are very much more capable of creative thinking than business majors - and especially engineers.   It does not mean the latter can’t, it just seems that less of them can.

Fight me!

Just now, The Dog said:

Bread.

Yep, winning bigger in TX/FL and cutting into her huge margin in CA/NY, but not by more than a 1-2 points, is not going to offset her winning MI, PA, WI.  Winning the states he's supposed to win bigger, and losing the states she will win by slightly smaller margins, isn't going to help him in the EC.

But she's still going to win the PV. 

10 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

My HS government teacher was the best fucking teacher I ever had, including college.  He got arrested a few years back for diddling his own granddaughters. 

IMG_3614.gif.e7b60885bbe3f74127a8e5bf20c5466a.gif

10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

no, its very useful.

Spockvarietyhour: does anyone understand a word I'm saying here?...

csb: Was in the Athens airport waiting for a flight.  We were camped out in a crowed little airport cafe and an OLDER couple looked in hopefully to find a seat, but there was no room.  I told them they could sit with us if they liked and they gladly accepted.  I had the kids scrunch down the bench and we managed to get all 6 of us seated around the small 4 top.  The couple was quite old but clearly well travelled and they asked about our trip.  At one point I mentioned how in the Peloponnese the road sign and the city names never seemed to match up and it was slightly confusing.  But I also said that Greek seemed like a difficult language to learn and it probably wasn't worth the hassle.  With a rye smile the old man proceeded for the next 5 mins to tell me all about the benefits of learning ancient Greek. (who knew there were any!)  Evidently he was an antiquities/language professor of some sort at Yale.   Which was cool because I had had the kids watch Kagan's Yale course on the Peloponnesian wars.  He got a chuckle out of that.

PS the difference in the city names on street signs is if they are in Greek/Byzantine Greek/ or some other regional dialect of Greek. But they are used interchangeably.

NYT/Siena has also been very transparent that they oversample Trump voters 

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7 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

it has been my experience that people with a broad liberal arts educational background are very much more capable of creative thinking than business majors - and especially engineers.   It does not mean the latter can’t, it just seems that less of them can.

Fight me!

Man, you know I agree, but the Surly  engineer and On-the-Spectrum crowd is about to pop off for the next couple of hours…

james whale riot GIF by Maudit

11 hours ago, Bullneck said:

 

 

Now that I'm looking at it again, imagine that image if he isn't on the phone. It goes from being suggestive to borderline pornographic. As it is, why would he make a call from his bed unless to say, "hold all my calls for the next 30 minutes." He's already removed his tie, and she seemingly can't wait to get started.

I'd be interested to see what led to this photo. Was it the photographer's idea? "Mr. Trump, how 'bout we set up in your bedroom with your daugther draped on you on the the bed??

Or was it Donald's? He can create his fantasy image (I hope it remained a fantasy) and thumb his mushroom whenever he likes.

I looked up the photo for a clearer image. Snopes says it appeared in InStyle magazine back in 1995.

That Siena poll also found that low-propensity voters favor Trump slightly (not a surprise - these are the "Trump Only" voters IMHO).

But late deciders are breaking for Harris - not a surprise, as Trump is flailing (and saying stupid shit that hurts his campaign) and Harris is working overtime to reach out to these voters. 

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All I see with these fucking polls is that more than two weeks out, they create rage content about a Trump lead to drive clicks and ad revenue.  As we get down the home stretch, they'll shift their analysis towards Harris gaining ground, a Harris lead, and then a Harris victory.  On November 6th, they'll crow about how well their polls predicted the outcome every step of the way.

Fuck them polls.

 

Edited by CooterBrown

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3 minutes ago, locodos said:

csb: Was in the Athens airport waiting for a flight.  We were camped out in a crowed little airport cafe and an OLDER couple looked in hopefully to find a seat, but there was no room.  I told them they could sit with us if they liked and they gladly accepted.  I had the kids scrunch down the bench and we managed to get all 6 of us seated around the small 4 top.  The couple was quite old but clearly well travelled and they asked about our trip.  At one point I mentioned how in the Peloponnese the road sign and the city names never seemed to match up and it was slightly confusing.  But I also said that Greek seemed like a difficult language to learn and it probably wasn't worth the hassle.  With a rye smile the old man proceeded for the next 5 mins to tell me all about the benefits of learning ancient Greek. (who knew there were any!)  Evidently he was an antiquities/language professor of some sort at Yale.   Which was cool because I had had the kids watch Kagan's Yale course on the Peloponnesian wars.  He got a chuckle out of that.

PS the difference in the city names on street signs is if they are in Greek/Byzantine Greek/ or some other regional dialect of Greek. But they are used interchangeably.

My wife does theology work.  The other day, I was working from home for part of the day.  I was working on a pretty complex appellate brief, writing some good shit, feeling pretty smarty-pants.  Then I realize that she's sitting across from me working with four different books open, preparing to teach on a text that she was reading in the original greek.  She was getting frustrated because a word had two slightly different/nuanced translations, so she was looking at two different secondary sources on that word -- not on the whole text, just that word.

I didn't feel as smarty-pants after that.

I did think it was kinda hot, though.

15 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Bread.

Can you imagine him winning the PV but losing the EC. Oh man it would be a sight to behold.

1 hour ago, Caver60 said:

Maybe some from those areas but I’m mostly talking about the more affluent portions of Northside and Northeast ISD inside 1604.

Yep. Hispanic students outnumber “white” students at both Reagan and Johnson now, unthinkable even 10 years ago. Although it’s partly because that area has become very popular with affluent Mexican Nationals with families.

3 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Now that I'm looking at it again, imagine that image if he isn't on the phone. It goes from being suggestive to borderline pornographic. As it is, why would he make a call from his bed unless to say, "hold all my calls for the next 30 minutes." He's already removed his tie, and she seemingly can't wait to get started.

I'd be interested to see what led to this photo. Was it the photographer's idea? "Mr. Trump, how 'bout we set up in your bedroom with your daugther draped on you on the the bed??

Or was it Donald's? He can create his fantasy image (I hope it remained a fantasy) and thumb his mushroom whenever he likes.

I looked up the photo for a clearer image. Snopes says it appeared in InStyle magazine back in 1995.

When I see stuff like this (the tweet I saw online and reposted) I'm never sure if it's real or not; I just rely on the source and whether I trust them or not.

Sort of like the "War with France" tweet.  It came from KamalaWins, which I trust.  Yes, they edited out whatever he said previous to the start of the video and one isn't quite sure if he's talking about a shoot war or a trade war.  

I just assume the worst.  Usually it's right to do so.

6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Man, you know I agree, but the Surly  engineer and On-the-Spectrum crowd is about to pop off for the next couple of hours…

james whale riot GIF by Maudit

IMG_3615.gif.9f2e66fb59779814cc5874b7990a4b16.gif

1 hour ago, Caver60 said:

Maybe some from those areas but I’m mostly talking about the more affluent portions of Northside and Northeast ISD inside 1604.

This tracks for me - I went to HS in NEISD and most of those schools have a COMPLETELY different economics and demographics than before - a friend taught English for 10 years at our HS and it's WILDLY different from when I was a student there

1 minute ago, Helobious said:

Yep. Hispanic students outnumber “white” students at both Reagan and Johnson now, unthinkable even 10 years ago. Although it’s partly because that area has become very popular with affluent Mexican Nationals with families.

Look at Churchill if you wanna see the future state of those schools, and Lee (the non magnet portion) if you wanna see even further into the future. The money keeps moving a little further out each time from Lee to Churchill to Reagan to Johnson

Down here at the voting location off Monterrey Oaks, line MUCH longer than 2020, although that could just be time/day.

If Harris wins by a larger margin than Biden, it’s going to be hilarious when all the “MSM/fake news” fuckers start pointing to the NYT polls as evidence the election was rigged.

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6 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Can you imagine him winning the PV but losing the EC. Oh man it would be a sight to behold.

The only chance we would have to get rid of the electoral college 

I'm late to this news but I didn't realize that Trump turned over most of the GOTV work to Turning Point USA. As they were failing at it, except in parts of AZ, Trump's campaign handed the reins over to Elon.

I feel much more confident that Elon won't be able to handle the job either, at least in the short term. 

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Js pointed this out yesterday, but 2022 showed late polls going right.  Maybe this is the same thing.  Fetterman won this by 5%.

 

image.png.87464a5d26c93439de61114681d2d7cf.png

I guess I’m a dumbass because I just now realized that a lot of people choose the color of the clothing they wear to go vote based on who they are voting for.  It dawned on me as I looked at this long ass line and was like “why are like 80% of the people in this line wearing blue?”

22 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Bread.

Well, finally something that makes sense.  He and JD's weirdness will help with the Maga crowd but turn everyone else off.  

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Js pointed this out yesterday, but 2022 showed late polls going right.  Maybe this is the same thing.  Fetterman won this by 5%.

 

image.png.87464a5d26c93439de61114681d2d7cf.png

Saw this in PA and AZ especially. Suddenly all the trash starting piling up the last 3 weeks and shifted all the averages far to the right of the eventual outcome 

3 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I guess I’m a dumbass because I just now realized that a lot of people choose the color of the clothing they wear to go vote based on who they are voting for.  It dawned on me as I looked at this long ass line and was like “why are like 80% of the people in this line wearing blue?”

Wait. You mean I have an excuse to pull out my blue coat and wear it to the polls?
cosmo kramer 90s GIF

22 minutes ago, locodos said:

  But I also said that Greek seemed like a difficult language to learn

My intensive summer of two Ancient Greek classes (3 hours a day) with a C and a D+ confirm that this is accurate. I get verb conjugations, but noun declensions are straight up bullshit. Baylor lets you get a BA with two semesters of Latin and 2 semesters of Ancient Greek, so it's possible to graduate without learning anything.

26 minutes ago, The Dog said:

The surprise to me is how blue Wilco is north of Round Rock. There are great opportunities for the TDP to flip some more offices here but the incumbents from the GOP keep getting re-elected due to the power of incumbency.

That and people here are still pretty conservative - they just don't like crazy.

Round Rock, Cedar Park, and Leander all have Dem Mayors. Seems like anything south of 2243 is fairly blue, 2243-29 is purple, and north of 29 is still pretty red. The county party has the same problem the state party has...a very limited bench. They encourage people to run for heavily gerrymandered seats they have no chance of winning while county officials run practically unopposed. I almost got booted from a Wilco Dems FB group for suggesting Stuart Whitlow should have waited to run for County Judge rather than challenge John Carter in a district that's newly gerrymandered to R+15. 

4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I guess I’m a dumbass because I just now realized that a lot of people choose the color of the clothing they wear to go vote based on who they are voting for.  It dawned on me as I looked at this long ass line and was like “why are like 80% of the people in this line wearing blue?”

I didn’t know people did that either. That honestly sounds pretty stupid. I miss when people didn’t feel the need to vomit their beliefs to the world

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2 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I guess I’m a dumbass because I just now realized that a lot of people choose the color of the clothing they wear to go vote based on who they are voting for.  It dawned on me as I looked at this long ass line and was like “why are like 80% of the people in this line wearing blue?”

I wore a blue USA shirt. But I’m also a big bald white dude in Texas. I’m willing to bet most folks in line would assume I was voting for Trump. Boy could they not be more wrong.

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14 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

 

I don't know who Charlamagne Tha God is, but he just nailed the explanation of my own feelings about the news.

Cooper, a very smart man, reveals exactly the problem that he is blind to. He was offended when his guest accurately pointed out what you hear on CNN. "I don't do that!" Cooper then announces his how they cover the news of Trump's fascism or whatever every night.

"There may be people on our panels who have strong beliefs and say crazy things..."

The panels are your network, Anderson. You have them on to say the things you won't report. Then, in your timidity and simple-mindedness, you recall Journ 101 where they told you to get both sides of an opinion.

Trump's fascism is not an opinion. It's verifiable news that can be reported and discussed without the absurd proposition that someone who will deny a self-evident fact deserves some say. 

Is Kamala really Black? You can't make the editorial decision that she is and describe the background without making sure you have people arguing about it on a panel?

Anderson has never looked more white in that clip. He was comfortable calling bullshit on his guest whom he then spoke over for several minutes. The woman tried to speak and he bowled her over, too. 

Anderson Cooper is a good man and smart. He's called out actual liars before. I hope he examines this exchange to realize he was wrong.

Edited by RomaVicta
evidently a mini-stroke while writing sentence about Kamala being Black.

So yesterday Trump called America a “trash can”, and said that when Kamala showed up, she got rid of the borders so that all the murderers could come in. Y’all remember that? When the VP got rid of our borders in January of 2021?

This is his closing message. “Look! Brown people! Also I will crush anyone who disagrees with me about anything.”

4 hours ago, Bojack said:

I missed the Mel Gibson endorsement. Is there anyone who's ever had a touch of celebrity that's too toxic or insane for the Trump MAGA people to embrace publicly? Mel Gibson, Antonio Brown, Roseanne Barr, Lara Logan, Kanye West, Ted Nugent, Kristi Noem, Hulk Hogan, RFK Jr, Russell Brand. I feel like there's a decent chance we'll see Bill Cosby in Pennsylvania soon.   

Who does Diddy support?  

52 minutes ago, G650 said:

dd2731d7-22be-462b-ba27-3578c1016e52_tex

 

 

You'll be singing a different tune when I convince the mummy to spare us.

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32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Nothing at all has moved the popular vote 3 points right.  Nothing has moved this race more than a point in either direction in the last 6 fucking weeks. 

NYT/Siena's national polling has been super fucking Trump friendly. 

The only thing I can think of that may have shifted voting intentions to the right would be people freaking out about the trans shit with the onslaught of ads over the last month. A week or so ago, I came across a quote from the head of the Human Rights Campaign saying that it seems to be affecting suburban mothers of school-aged children. If that ends up being the tipping point, it'll make me sick to my stomach but would essentially be the same bullshit scare/hate tactic that worked for the GOP in 2004 when they made a huge stink about gay marriage, putting it on the ballot in places like Ohio.

 

28 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

it has been my experience that people with a broad liberal arts educational background are very much more capable of creative thinking than business majors - and especially engineers.   It does not mean the latter can’t, it just seems that less of them can.

Fight me!

As a liberal arts major, I feel somewhat obligated to rectify this egregious grammatical error.

tenor.gif

9 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I didn’t know people did that either. That honestly sounds pretty stupid. I miss when people didn’t feel the need to vomit their beliefs to the world

When exactly was this?  You know since you miss it.

 

2 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Who does Diddy support?  

Johnson & Johnson? 

17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

The clip was posted earlier -- When Hannity started spewing the bullshit about Trump's knowledge and hours long in-depth conversations with him about complex topics, Smith should have jumped in with "About WHAT? About ELECTROCUTION SHARKS? About CANCER WINDMILLS? About MEN'S JUNK????

1 minute ago, That Guy said:

Johnson & Johnson? 

Special Agent Johnson... no the other one

43 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

it has been my experience that people with a broad liberal arts educational background are very much more capable of creative thinking than business majors - and especially engineers.   It does not mean the latter can’t, it just seems that less of them can.

Fight me!

*Fewer/Menos/Moins

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PA Firewall: 371k (D/R) and 423.5 with idies

Also, because a lot of people here take this dude as gospel:

Carville: 3 Reasons Why Harris Wins

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