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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Yeah, but isn't it likely that any Biden replacement immediately becomes a chucklefuck?

Of course. But the bar is exceptionally low at this point. "Don't look like you're about to keel over, and complete consecutive sentences that are both coherent and not unhinged."

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22 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Over half the country fucking hates the guy that will probably win the election. It's insane.

*more than

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Of course. But the bar is exceptionally low at this point. "Don't look like you're about to keel over, and complete consecutive sentences that are both coherent and not unhinged."

Shit. If you can competently read off a teleprompter, you've doubled Biden's capacity right now.   Being able to speak in complete sentences without notes is Einstein level stuff for the Dem Candidate. 

16 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I obviously can't prove this, but I just fundamentally disagree. Every single Biden lock today would still vote for any Democrat nominee to try to stop Trump. Another nominee at least gives the potential of swaying some of the "anyone but these two chucklefucks" crowd. Call him/her the "anti-Trump and probably will still be alive in 4 years" candidate. Sexy name appeal right there.

And, as others have mentioned, if the nominee IS going to be Biden, the White House has to stop gaslighting (god, I hate that word) us about his condition. 

This!

The press conference lying is not great.  So you're running against a ridiculous liar and your tactic is to.......lie to everyone?

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

Shit. If you can competently read off a teleprompter, you've doubled Biden's capacity right now.   Being able to speak in complete sentences without notes is Einstein level stuff for the Dem Candidate. 

I've heard people speak of taking the keys away from grandpa but why stop at Joe? Why not just say anyone over 70 can't participate(at least by holding office) anymore?

Just now, Pam Cummings said:

I've heard people speak of taking the keys away from grandpa but why stop at Joe? Why not just say anyone over 70 can't participate(at least by holding office) anymore?

Or, I don't know, stop voting for the elderly.

33 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

I think y’all need to accept the fact that Joe Biden is going to be the nominee. 

And I'm OK with that.  I'd honestly be OK with the Dennis Reynolds sex doll in a suit as the nominee.  I'd much rather have someone sit there and do jack shit for the next four years than have a president spew insanity at 2AM on Twitter/X from a West Wing shitter.  Do we honestly think the next four years of Biden would be a significant downgrade from these past four?   

The election still seems to be framed as Biden vs. Trump.  It's too early for most people to think of it as Not Trump vs. Trump.  But our assholes will get tighter as November approaches and hopefully the election is framed more in that manner as the days tick by.

5 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Everybody polling better against Trump than either Biden or Harris:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/07/17/new-polling-bolsters-dump-biden-push-00168943

Honestly, these need to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt.

Everyone but Biden/Harris is basically "generic Dem" in polling - that will quickly change as the hate engine revs up, everything about their lives/policies come out, etc. 

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Honestly, these need to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt.

Everyone but Biden/Harris is basically "generic Dem" in polling - that will quickly change as the hate engine revs up, everything about their lives/policies come out, etc. 

I said it before, but every single person who thinks Biden is easily replaceable with a different candidate who they imagine will suddenly become much more popular also thought a few years ago that DeSantis would easily get the GOP nomination.

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I said it before, but every single person who thinks Biden is easily replaceable with a different candidate who they imagine will suddenly become much more popular also thought a few years ago that DeSantis would easily get the GOP nomination.

I haven't dove deep into these polls, but I'd imagine the "do you have an opinion of this person" for each of the non-Biden/Harris candidates is probably super high in the "i don't know" category because NOBODY DOING THESE POLLS KNOWS WHO THEY ARE. 

We see this every cycle - OMG Ted Cruz is losing to "generic Dem" but then wins in November, because Generic Dem/GOP is not an actual candidate. 

Its Fine Ok GIF by ZDF Magazin Royale

Edited by 4th&Five

Here’s the money shot from last night’s Daily show appearance by Bill O’Reiily:

Why did Stewart have a serial sexual harasser from Fox News on his show just to spew GOP talking points? 

Why did Stewart have a serial sexual harasser from Fox News on his show just to spew GOP talking points? 

It was bizzare. Next week just have Satan as the main guest.
4 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Its Fine Ok GIF by ZDF Magazin Royale

I just wish if they would all do it at the same time or get behind him 100%. Stop with half measures. Now you have a leaked phone call with a group of Dems and Biden scolding Jason Crow Bronze Star recipient. I mean just fucking A—either everyone says step aside it at one time or they need to get behind him. 
 

im pissy. I’m at an urgent care for extreme pain on my right front lower side and wifi isn’t great. 
 

what Biden said to Crow in leaked call that happened on Saturday before assassination attempt:

"I put NATO together. Name me a foreign leader who thinks I'm not the most effective leader in the world on foreign policy. Tell me! Tell me who the hell that is! Tell me who put NATO back together! Tell me who enlarged NATO, tell me who did the Pacific basin! Tell me who did something that you've never done with your Bronze Star like my son—and I'm proud of your leadership, but guess what, what's happening, we've got Korea and Japan working together, I put AUKUS together, anyway!"

————-

Either everyone makes a unified front in telling him to step aside or they need a shut the fuck up. Repubs do not need to attack Joe when his own party is kicking him in dick hourly. 

IMG_1550.jpeg

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Why did Stewart have a serial sexual harasser from Fox News on his show just to spew GOP talking points? 

The same reason they've interviewed each other before: (1) he does get views, and (2) to actually get a response out to the nonsense. Each time they've been on air together, the clips coming out of it are Stewart dunking on him. That's not nothing in the current media environment. 

4 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

I just wish if they would all do it at the same time or get behind him 100%. Stop with half measures. Now you have a leaked phone call with a group of Dems and Biden scolding Jason Crow Bronze Star recipient. I mean just fucking A—either everyone says step aside it at one time or they need to get behind him. 
 

im pissy. I’m at an urgent care for extreme pain on my right front lower side and wifi isn’t great. 
 

what Biden said to Crow in leaked call that happened on Saturday before assassination attempt:

"I put NATO together. Name me a foreign leader who thinks I'm not the most effective leader in the world on foreign policy. Tell me! Tell me who the hell that is! Tell me who put NATO back together! Tell me who enlarged NATO, tell me who did the Pacific basin! Tell me who did something that you've never done with your Bronze Star like my son—and I'm proud of your leadership, but guess what, what's happening, we've got Korea and Japan working together, I put AUKUS together, anyway!"

————-

Either everyone makes a unified front in telling him to step aside or they need a shut the fuck up. Repubs do not need to attack Joe when his own party is kicking him in dick hourly. 

IMG_1550.jpeg

Everything Biden said is factually correct. What are you mad about there?

Edited by Dahobbs

The same reason they've interviewed each other before: (1) he does get views, and (2) to actually get a response out to the nonsense. Each time they've been on air together, the clips coming out of it are Stewart dunking on him. That's not nothing in the current media environment. 

At least Stewart has the sharpness to crack back at people like O’Reilly. Meanwhile, Jake Tapper and others bring on the “opposing viewpoint” and allow these folks to just spew lies one after the other with zero pushback. Insanity.
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This is somewhat tangential to the discussion of whether Biden should drop out, but there's a good new blog post by a political scientist discussing why vibes have shifted against Democrats.  I want to note this part in particular:

Quote

Back in the early days of the Monkey Cage, my friend John Sides used to regularly write pieces throwing cold water on whatever the hot generalization on the hot topic was among excitable political commentators. We used to jokingly call him Cold Take Sides. I don’t think I’m telling tales out of school - it was a very valuable social role! Vibe-slingers have a pronounced tendency to get carried away with themselves, over-estimating the general importance of this immediate twist or that particular turn, while forgetting that much of the truth about politics is structural. Not all the truth. Sometimes, the fundamental framing of politics actually shifts - and this can have enormously important consequences! My colleague, Hahrie Han, who does a different kind of political science, has a lot to say about this. But it shifts far less often than commentators would have you believe.

This does not mean that the Vibes are unimportant. They are rarely consequential in the ways that commentators claim they are, but when they are, they are very consequential indeed. And they may sometimes be consequential in significant but not worldshaking ways. But - being a sort-of political scientist, I think you need a good working definition of what “the Vibes” are and are not, in order to make progress.

Here’s mine. “The Vibes” are no more and no less than a given political elite’s theory of public opinion. This theory provides some information about public opinion, when the political elite is not completely disconnected from it. It usually provides much more information about the beliefs and ideology of the relevant political elite - what they think the public believes, what they want the public to believe, and (more rarely, since few of us are given to deep self-reflection), what they don’t want the public to believe but have to accept that it does.

This means that the Vibes provides real information. But on average they tell you much more about a particular elite’s beliefs and priorities, than about the underlying state of public opinion itself (there is variation. Some people are more careful about marking their claims to external evidence that might correct their impressions, and about taking counter-arguments seriously).

Vibes are also important to understand as weapons in battles between different factions of elites. Elites sometimes play a quite important role in politics! They have many resources - financial, intellectual, coalitional - to bring to bear. You should absolutely pay attention to battles to shape what John Kenneth Galbraith famously described as the “conventional wisdom.” But you shouldn’t treat the moves in these battles as bald evidence of what the public thinks.

The vibes around the Biden debate are not actually about public opinion of Biden, they're about what establishment California Democrats and wealthy Democratic donors and the fucking owner of the New York Times think public opinion is. And I cannot emphasize this enough, those people are more divorced from public opinion than anyone any of us have ever met in our lives

8 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

im pissy. I’m at an urgent care for extreme pain on my right front lower side and wifi isn’t great. 

Hate it when the victim fights back 

13 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Everything Biden said is factually correct. What are you mad about there?

It’s the fact that stuff keeps getting leaked. Drip drip drip. Schiff says step down. Drip drip drip. Details of phone call leaked. Drip drip drip. It either has to be 100% effort to unite behind him or 100% to replace him. 
 

cool cool. Urgent care sending me to the ER. Fuck my life. 

Edited by Nicole44

1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

This is somewhat tangential to the discussion of whether Biden should drop out, but there's a good new blog post by a political scientist discussing why vibes have shifted against Democrats.  I want to note this part in particular:

The vibes around the Biden debate are not actually about public opinion of Biden, they're about what establishment California Democrats and wealthy Democratic donors and the fucking owner of the New York Times think public opinion is. And I cannot emphasize this enough, those people are more divorced from public opinion than anyone any of us have ever met in our lives

All I know is what I saw with my eyes.

Im about as blue as you can get and still be allowed to live in Texas and get invited over to friends houses.

Joe Biden is not fit to be the presidental nominee running against the demise of our democracy and our countries foundation. However, given the choice between him and the guy with Satan’s horseshoe (hoof shoe?) up his ass…. I’ll take Biden.


Part of being a nominee is communicating your vision for the future. Joe is a good president, now.

Running for President requires selling your vision and I don’t see how he can given his current state. And I’m not knocking him or saying he’s senile. He gets tired, forgets shit, slips up just like anyone who’s that age. But the rigors of the job are so great I just can’t see him having enough gas in the tank quite frankly.

I think Schiff is terrified of what Trump getting back in the Oval Office could mean for him. Trump will definitely come after him. 

9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

This is somewhat tangential to the discussion of whether Biden should drop out, but there's a good new blog post by a political scientist discussing why vibes have shifted against Democrats.  I want to note this part in particular:

The vibes around the Biden debate are not actually about public opinion of Biden, they're about what establishment California Democrats and wealthy Democratic donors and the fucking owner of the New York Times think public opinion is. And I cannot emphasize this enough, those people are more divorced from public opinion than anyone any of us have ever met in our lives

Not to mention, no offense to us, what the average voter thinks.  *We* are not average voters - we are highly educated and informed.  We are following everything to the minute.

There's a reason campaigns don't gear up big time until Labor Day - the average voter is not paying attention, still. 

I have zero expectation of Joe still having the job at the end of the next term. I'm sure most people don't. I also think it should be easy to make the case to undecided voters why that doesn't matter and Joe doesn't have to be the one to make that case. 

7 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

It’s the fact that stuff keeps getting leaked. Drip drip drip. Schiff says step down. Drip drip drip. Details of phone call leaked. Drip drip drip. It either has to be 100% effort to unite behind him or 100% to replace him. 
 

cool cool. Urgent care sending me to the ER. Fuck my life. 

Agree. Hope you feel better. 

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not to mention, no offense to us, what the average voter thinks.  *We* are not average voters - we are highly educated and informed.  We are following everything to the minute.

There's a reason campaigns don't gear up big time until Labor Day - the average voter is not paying attention, still. 

Think Tim Robinson GIF by NETFLIX

5 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think Schiff is terrified of what Trump getting back in the Oval Office could mean for him. Trump will definitely come after him. 

Good. They should all be terrified. Appropriate fear. Act like it.

7 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

It’s the fact that stuff keeps getting leaked. Drip drip drip. Schiff says step down. Drip drip drip. Details of phone call leaked. Drip drip drip. It either has to be 100% effort to unite behind him or 100% to replace him. 
 

cool cool. Urgent care sending me to the ER. Fuck my life. 

Have you considered that this campaign to sideline Biden does not actually erode his electoral support in case he remains the nominee?  Maybe polling will show dips but I don't think it will be persistent.  I don't think people are thinking to switch to Trump or staying home or motivating MAGA turnout based on this movement turning public.

If this is at all stress related I'd suggest stop watching news channels and try to get some more time outdoors.  Hope you are fine.  Best wishes.

9 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think Schiff is terrified of what Trump getting back in the Oval Office could mean for him. Trump will definitely come after him. 

I think Schiff’s senate office should be moved to the darkest part of Alaska and he should be forced to give a proxy to Katie Porter to vote when he’s not present.

5 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

90% of Americans have no clue who Wes Moore is. 

At the 2008 Democratic National Convention:

I can’t say for sure if I saw that speech or not but I’ve definitely been aware of Wes Moore since 2010 when he was interviewed on The Colbert Report following the publication of his book The Other Wes Moore. He made quite an impression. 

Biden is going to be out, so it's time that his campaign accepts it.

Outside of the named advisors to his campaign, I'm unsure that any Dem has endorsed that he remain. Pelosi keeps going on that she's waiting on Biden to make a decision. He's made a decision but it's obvious that she disagrees so she's going to keep asking for him to decide.

When Trump gets his post convention bump, the Dems will panic and Biden will drop out.

1 hour ago, immamac said:

Juan is a fucking gamer. You will see. 

Damn right he is

10 Things You Didn't Know About Juan Valdez | Covoya Specialty Coffee  Covoya Coffee

I probably have as many posts as anyone that regularly posts in CR, so I'm obviously a politics pervert, and I had to google him when I saw that poll and had one of those "oh yeah, I think I've heard of him before but know absolutely nothing about him" reactions.

19 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I think Schiff’s senate office should be moved to the darkest part of Alaska and he should be forced to give a proxy to Katie Porter to vote when he’s not present.

Pass. She might as well be the one shipping off to Alaska for gifting her seat to the republicans.

Oh noooooo he's so popular now!?

Just stay on message and stop being whiners and the orange one loses again

image.thumb.png.970fd5e8c63028c1e98d35fb1eb64b10.png

...and 538's current electoral update

image.thumb.png.79c23e8d93e4e4e38454cb18fa69b9b6.png

There's time

Just now, texasdago said:

Oh noooooo he's so popular now!?

Just stay on message and stop being whiners and the orange one loses again

image.thumb.png.970fd5e8c63028c1e98d35fb1eb64b10.png

...and 538's current electoral update

image.thumb.png.79c23e8d93e4e4e38454cb18fa69b9b6.png

There's time

I still think he was never not popular. I think there's valid concern over his ability to do the job. The debate was really really bad. He's had some meh interviews since then but nothing approaching the debate performance. If that was the par expectation from Biden I think this would be different he's proven multiple times since then that it was clearly a very bad night and very bad nights aren't common. 

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

So now we're trusting polls?

There's polls all over the place.  I'm saying there is no overwhelming evidence that its going to be a Trump landslide and that everyone is tying themselves up in knots when they should stay on message and focus.  Trump, Vance, Project 2025 and the usual clowshow have given us all we need.  Now the DNC needs to snap out of it and be on point with the message and Biden wins.

Also, he hasn't done a lick to make himself more likeable since the attempt.  He's tried to garner sympathy from his base by sticking a Barbie Dollhouse pillow on his ear.  Otherwise, he's the same dude with the same group of sycophants and he picked an unlikeable sycophant as his VP pick.

 

Edited by texasdago

5 minutes ago, texasdago said:

There's polls all over the place.  I'm saying there is no overwhelming evidence that its going to be a Trump landslide and that everyone is tying themselves up in knots when they should stay on message and focus.  Trump, Vance, Project 2025 and the usual clowshow have given us all we need.  Now the DNC needs to snap out of it and be on point with the message and Biden wins.

I don't disagree with you. And I'm not even being critical of your post. Just the idea that "polls are shit" has permeated this thread for years now, and after several disasterous situations that all appear very bad for Biden, the idea of clinging to them as a reason that the room is not in fact on fire, and we are in fact fine, seems tenusous. 

At this point, I don't think any outcome of this election should suprise anyone, including a convincing Biden win, a no one gets to 270 count (somehow), all the way to a massive Trump victory. We can all find reasons for any of those outcomes that will make sense in retrospect. 

9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

At this point, I don't think any outcome of this election should suprise anyone, including a convincing Biden win, a no one gets to 270 count (somehow), all the way to a massive Trump victory. We can all find reasons for any of those outcomes that will make sense in retrospect. 

Yup.  Which is why I think its insane people are automatically thinking it is the "Trump wins in a massive landslide" outcome without all signs pointing to it.  His base may turn out but there are more Nikky Haley republicans saying they're not voting Trump and others saying they'd rather stay home.  Biden is not immune to the same issues.

As everyone loves to point out, Trump over performed his polling, mostly due to GOP non-response bias. Considering everyone thought he’d lose in 2016 and in 2020, only Dems obeyed stay at home orders and GOP didn’t answer the phone. 

I fail to see why there aren’t as many articles about Dem non-response bias as we were subjected to the last 2 cycles. Oh wait no, it’s bc the media doesn’t care and the pundits like when things confirm their beliefs 

Ain't many Dems happy to answer the phone and texts about Biden right now.  But they'll come home in the end.  This feels a lot like Access Hollywood 2016, but in July.

Edited by Js1

Just now, immamac said:

The shocking number is 27% of Republicans. 

That will never be mentioned, ever.

I believe there is a certain resident board idiot that keeps running his mouth about Project 25 being on the fringe and not the actual policy of Trump. 

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