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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This might be my favorite screenshot from any of these poll dorks ever.  Check the first and third columns.

Image

If you think that we won't see a headline from the NYT in the next 30 days along the lines of "Why Kamala Harris getting more Electoral College votes than Donald Trump means she will lose the election," you haven't been paying attention.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

If you think that we won't see a headline from the NYT in the next 30 days along the lines of "Why Kamala Harris getting more Electoral College votes than Donald Trump means she will lose the election," you haven't been paying attention.

They've put the poor Pitchbot guy out of business.

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

I thought UT was more liberal than that?

It's truly a large school in terms of student body diversity and as you can imagine the field of study. 

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Posted
Just now, YChang said:

It's truly a large school in terms of student body diversity and as you can imagine the field of study. 

I was just making a joke that you guys are now one of the schools you've made fun of forever.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This might be my favorite screenshot from any of these poll dorks ever.  Check the first and third columns.

Image

So this is saying, in public, that Harris only has a 64% chance of winning the national popular vote?

out of 40k simulations, Trump wins the PV in over 14k of them?

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So this is saying, in public, that Harris only has a 64% chance of winning the national popular vote?

out of 40k simulations, Trump wins the PV in over 14k of them?

This is what I wonder about these things. If your numbers spit that out, instead of publishing, maybe take another look. "Well that's obviously not right...."

Posted
1 minute ago, Red Five said:

This is what I wonder about these things. If your numbers spit that out, instead of publishing, maybe take another look. "Well that's obviously not right...."

It can’t be our formula that is wrong. Must be wonky data. GIGO. Oh well.

Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Wow she looks like she could be Shari Headley's sister or cousin.

 

JKqc9fkNkaPZbr5PyKSXhWg62hiB1Z.jpg

Wait....so we get this song about Kamala?  IN.

6cbe1ca9-e371-479c-8334-30bcf1b53bd0_tex

 

 

And yes, I know that's from the beginning of the movie, not the end when he hooks up with his eventual love, but goddamn, it's just a great song.

Edited by Brisketexan
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Posted

If Dems hit their 2020 marks in SEPA and Allegheny, PA is not going to be won by Trump

 

There should also be more voters voting in person this time, compared to 2020, for obvious reasons.  So PA shouldn't take 3 days to count the votes.

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This might be my favorite screenshot from any of these poll dorks ever.  Check the first and third columns.

Image

Ridiculous.

Nate is falling into the 2022 problem a lot of pundits did (and he did as well) - the GOP floods the zone with partisan R polls, the narrative becomes that the GOP is winning, then the results come in and everyone is like...

My s gop GIF en GIFER - de Kall

Ideally, we start getting weekly or bi-weekly state level polls starting next month

Edited by Js1
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Posted
59 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Nate Silver reminding everyone why he sucks - posts a long article that Harris as a "PA problem" while citing 4/5 polls that are purely R-partisan polls (Cygnal, Inside Advantage, Rasmussen, Fabrizio) showing a tied or Trump +1 race, while ignoring a bunch of polls pre-DNC that had Harris up in PA. 

It’s obvious that Nate Silver is the Billy Luicci of poll pundits.

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Posted
45 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This might be my favorite screenshot from any of these poll dorks ever.  Check the first and third columns.

Image

Does this mean that Kamala's EC wins are by much, much larger majorities than Trump's? In other words, he wins the EC 52.4% of the time they run the sim but his margins are by a couple of EC votes like in that 270-268 range but Kamala's getting closer to 300 in the 47.3% that she wins. Could that be it? Otherwise, that don't look right.

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Posted
Just now, Red Five said:

I don't get it. Just being dicks for the purpose of being dicks?

It worked in 2016, but Trump is not new and he’s not running against Hillary. 

Posted (edited)

Dotard threatened in print to have Zuckerberg arrested. I have mixed feeling about it tbh. My first inclination is for Biden to order them both "neutralized." https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/28/trump-zuckerberg-election-book-00176639

image.thumb.png.df34626f3620998b5b4590fb376114f1.png


 

Spoiler

Mark Zuckerberg earlier this week wrote that the Biden administration had tried to “pressure” Meta to downplay certain content about Covid-19. | Andrew Harnik/AP

By Alex Isenstadt

08/28/2024 04:57 PM EDT

Former President Donald Trump writes in a new book set to be published next week that Mark Zuckerberg plotted against him during the 2020 election and said the Meta chief executive would “spend the rest of his life in prison” if he did it again.

It represents Trump’s most recent attack on Zuckerberg, who he has repeatedly accused of intervening in the last presidential election. And it comes as Meta has taken steps to assure conservatives it will not influence this year’s campaign.

“Save America,” a Trump-authored coffee table book being released Sept. 3, includes an undated photograph of Trump meeting with Zuckerberg in the White House. Under the photo, Trump writes that Zuckerberg “would come to the Oval Office to see me. He would bring his very nice wife to dinners, be as nice as anyone could be, while always plotting to install shameful Lock Boxes in a true PLOT AGAINST THE PRESIDENT,” Trump added, referring to a $420 million contribution Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan, made during the 2020 election to fund election infrastructure.

“He told me there was nobody like Trump on Facebook. But at the same time, and for whatever reason, steered it against me,” Trump continues. “We are watching him closely, and if he does anything illegal this time he will spend the rest of his life in prison — as will others who cheat in the 2024 Presidential Election.”

Trump has made similar remarks about Zuckerberg before. Trump wrote in a July post on Truth Social that if elected he would pursue “ELECTION FRAUDSTERS at levels never seen before, and they will be sent to prison for long periods of time. We already know who you are. DON’T DO IT! ZUCKERBUCKS, be careful!”
Donald Trump speaks while gesturing with his hands.

Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly accused Zuckerberg of intervening in the last presidential election. | Carolyn Kaster/AP

A Meta spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Republicans have criticized Meta for suppressing content that would have damaged President Joe Biden in 2020, most notably reporting about the then-candidate’s son, Hunter. At the time, the FBI warned the coverage may have been part of a Russian-orchestrated effort to influence the election.

Zuckerberg sent a letter on Monday to the Republican-controlled House Judiciary Committee acknowledging it was a mistake to have suppressed the story, saying it has “since been made clear that the reporting was not Russian disinformation, and in retrospect, we shouldn’t have demoted the story,”

In the same letter, Zuckerberg wrote that the Biden administration had tried to “pressure” Meta to downplay certain content about Covid-19, which he said was “wrong” for the White House to have done. Zuckerberg also said he would not make similar contributions to fund election infrastructure ahead of this year’s election, though he also stressed that the funding was not intended to appear partisan in nature.

“Save America” is being released by Winning Team Publishing, which was co-founded by Donald Trump Jr. and Sergio Gor, a Trump ally.

 

Edited by Chopper
link
Posted (edited)

Quinnipiac nstional - Harris 49, Trump 48. 49-47 with the full field

Their last poll was Trump +4 over Biden in June and Trump +2 against a hypothetical Harris (before the drop out) and +4 against the full field. So a 6 point swing left in the full field of candidates 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


Very few times in life are situations a straightforward good vs evil choice, but this election is clearly one of them.

And the evil side is REALLY leaning into the whole evil thing. They really want everyone to know how evil they are.

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Posted
I was just telling [mention=656]Ghost of LL[/mention] that it feels a whole lot more like a game against North Texas, and folks are getting giddy that the odds look good for us to win by a FG.
A win is nice.  But for fuck's sake, let's put on our "let's see the whole world as it is" glasses.  Trump and Trumpism are fucking horrible.  Any one thing about them (being rapists, being convicted felons, shitting on CMOH recipients, getting in a fight with staff at Arlington, and LITERALLY HUNDREDS OF OTHER THINGS) is totally disqualifying in any other world/political climate.  This is a candidate and movement that should lose the EV in all 50 states.  We should trounce them 60-10 (I give 'em the late TD, because we put in scrubs in the 4th Q).  Yet we're here working our asses off and having to play through the whistle HOPING that we can pull off a 3 pt win.
What the fucking fuck?  WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCKING FUCK?

Do you spend any time in public? Sit in an airport for 2 hours and people watch. This joint is lousy with terrible people. That's why this is and always will be a coin flip.
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Posted
3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I recall the recent video of the Ole Miss student from Dallas Plano who was dancing and making noise like a gorilla in front of the black student. This was in the middle of a school day. I can't imagine how they would act on a Saturday night after a day of drinking.

fify

I'll begrudgingly accept Richardson as part of Dallas, but anything along the US-75 corridor north of that is S. Oklahoma in my mind.

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Posted
4 hours ago, BearSchlong said:


I am also particularly vexed by that whole event. I’m surprised at the depth of my feelings.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.voanews.com/amp/us-european-commission-affirm-commitment-to-deter-putin/6501272.html

That young man in the photo rising from his chair to greet the COC is my son, and this photo was taken within 24 hours of my own father’s military funeral. In fact, I was at the dias glancing at the back of the sanctuary until the last possible minute, hoping that the CG of the 82nd had approved his request for emergency leave and that he would appear just in time for the ceremony. 2 weeks ago at Ft. Liberty (Bragg) I pinned railroad tracks to his headgear in front of his colleagues and the brigade commander.

You can see the kid’s resemblance to his grandfather at 5:50 of this video.

 

 

 

 



Fuck J.D. Vance and tfg.

Has anyone else already started mentally scripting their reaction and relief when orange man is finally gone?

I’m thinking of taking a break from the internet.

 

Fireworks,  lots of fireworks and whiskey drinking has been mentioned.

 

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Dotard threatened in print to have Zuckerberg arrested. I have mixed feeling about it tbh. My first inclination is for Biden to order them both "neutralized." https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/28/trump-zuckerberg-election-book-00176639

image.thumb.png.df34626f3620998b5b4590fb376114f1.png


 

  Reveal hidden contents

Mark Zuckerberg earlier this week wrote that the Biden administration had tried to “pressure” Meta to downplay certain content about Covid-19. | Andrew Harnik/AP

By Alex Isenstadt

08/28/2024 04:57 PM EDT

Former President Donald Trump writes in a new book set to be published next week that Mark Zuckerberg plotted against him during the 2020 election and said the Meta chief executive would “spend the rest of his life in prison” if he did it again.

It represents Trump’s most recent attack on Zuckerberg, who he has repeatedly accused of intervening in the last presidential election. And it comes as Meta has taken steps to assure conservatives it will not influence this year’s campaign.

“Save America,” a Trump-authored coffee table book being released Sept. 3, includes an undated photograph of Trump meeting with Zuckerberg in the White House. Under the photo, Trump writes that Zuckerberg “would come to the Oval Office to see me. He would bring his very nice wife to dinners, be as nice as anyone could be, while always plotting to install shameful Lock Boxes in a true PLOT AGAINST THE PRESIDENT,” Trump added, referring to a $420 million contribution Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan, made during the 2020 election to fund election infrastructure.

“He told me there was nobody like Trump on Facebook. But at the same time, and for whatever reason, steered it against me,” Trump continues. “We are watching him closely, and if he does anything illegal this time he will spend the rest of his life in prison — as will others who cheat in the 2024 Presidential Election.”

Trump has made similar remarks about Zuckerberg before. Trump wrote in a July post on Truth Social that if elected he would pursue “ELECTION FRAUDSTERS at levels never seen before, and they will be sent to prison for long periods of time. We already know who you are. DON’T DO IT! ZUCKERBUCKS, be careful!”
Donald Trump speaks while gesturing with his hands.

Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly accused Zuckerberg of intervening in the last presidential election. | Carolyn Kaster/AP

A Meta spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Republicans have criticized Meta for suppressing content that would have damaged President Joe Biden in 2020, most notably reporting about the then-candidate’s son, Hunter. At the time, the FBI warned the coverage may have been part of a Russian-orchestrated effort to influence the election.

Zuckerberg sent a letter on Monday to the Republican-controlled House Judiciary Committee acknowledging it was a mistake to have suppressed the story, saying it has “since been made clear that the reporting was not Russian disinformation, and in retrospect, we shouldn’t have demoted the story,”

In the same letter, Zuckerberg wrote that the Biden administration had tried to “pressure” Meta to downplay certain content about Covid-19, which he said was “wrong” for the White House to have done. Zuckerberg also said he would not make similar contributions to fund election infrastructure ahead of this year’s election, though he also stressed that the funding was not intended to appear partisan in nature.

“Save America” is being released by Winning Team Publishing, which was co-founded by Donald Trump Jr. and Sergio Gor, a Trump ally.

 

At this moment Dotard benefactor Elmo Mosk is raging on twitter about the arrest of Pavel Durov.

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Posted
4 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

maybe this will help people make up their minds.

 

Workshopping her slogan:  Vote for the Fox

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

The only way I can solve that is by going back in time and killing Newt Gingrich before he became Speaker.

he is the author of the GOP paradigm shift that says you can’t be against the other person on ideas and policy, you have to personally demonize your opponent.   I am not saying that he invented negative campaigning, but he did insist that his contract with America troops start personally attacking Democrats and accusing them of horrific things to gain an electoral advantage.   It was so tremendously effective that it was adopted universally by the GOP.   Karl Rove fine tuned it - in that he discovered inventing bullshit wedge issues - like flag burning laws - allowed the GOP to accuse Democrats of being anti-American…. (Instead of being advocates of protecting constitutionally permissible rights. )

Newt was the Godfather of the current lack of congeniality.  He also coordinated with Rush Limbaugh and others to make sure that the talking points were spewed all over America on the regular. 

Could you get Rush at the same time?  Might make it so many of us could have normal conversations with our parents again.

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Posted

History about the Electoral College I didn't know:

After the close 1968 election, the House voted 339-70 to amend the Constitution & abolish the Electoral College. Despite bipartisan Senate support, and  President Nixon's backing, segregationist southern Democrats & small-state Republicans blocked it. Required 2/3 majority.

image.thumb.png.a1ad1d4f88efcf199ffc1e0d6565f673.png

via Stephen Wolf of The Downballot

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Posted

Not sure where this should go or if it’s already been discussed on here, but  there has been all this talk by Republicans that keep saying that Biden and Harris’s economic policies are the reason groceries are so high.  I wonder why the Kroger executives saying they priced stuff higher above inflation just to make more money isn’t being used by Harris at this point or maybe it is.  Seems to back what she has been saying and helps the whole communist price fixing the right keeps scaring people about. 
 

 

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