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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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2 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Can someone explain this to me like I'm 5? The best I can gather is that Elon hired a firm to GOTV for Trump, and it ended up being a bunch of lazy kids faking their effort level in their apps and playing Fortnite all day instead. Roughly?

That's it.  

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11 minutes ago, The Dog said:

The Nevada returns so far show this may not matter, but this is what a future Trump administration will be - nothing but grifters and fraudsters looking to rip people off:

 

1.  That's just for people who don't want to walk.  Usually the biggest issue is getting people to knock on doors and talk to strangers.  That would be way easier to fake.  

2. The vendor has zero financial interest in catching and firing cheaters.  Fewer employees=less income. They get a cut of every fake.  I imagine the fakers pull in more dollars per hour than those actually doing the work. 

Quote

“Every door that is marked leaves unique fingerprints, and the fingerprints of a door marked with a spoofing app leave these fingerprints in neon colors. We have tech-enabled auditing and fraud prevention tools to identify and dismiss the bad apples, the Pac doesn’t pay a dime, and the door gets knocked by the next canvasser,” it said.

I mean, what unmitigated bullshit.  Here is someone explaining how they have been successfully gaming the system, and the these dipshits are trying to pretend it's impossible. 

2 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Can someone explain this to me like I'm 5? The best I can gather is that Elon hired a firm to GOTV for Trump, and it ended up being a bunch of lazy kids faking their effort level in their apps and playing Fortnite all day instead. Roughly?

I mean, your general gist isn't wrong, but the details are not quite what you're suggesting.

Door to Door sales is a major, major commercial business segment. Most companies use 3rd party door to door sales companies, who employ their own folks to go out and knock on doors and sell things. It can really boost sales numbers, so people/companies are addicted to those sales #s, but they're often highly fucking shady. In Energy, and Telecom, think about people who prey on old folks and get them to sign shit they don't understand. Or fake their signature. Etc. It often comes with a high level of regulator risk, so some companies won't employ Door to Door sale anymore. 

Elon basically hired a bunch of pros to do the door knocking. The only thing pros care about is fucking quotas. How many doors did you knock? How many sales did you make? It's a metrics game. And since they're usually third party working on temporary contracts, they're happy to fudge the fucking numbers to make their quotas/get their bonsues considering in a few weeks they'll be working on another contract somewhere else and there isn't much blowback. 

Contrast that mentality with people who are volunteering, or have more permanent type positions with a democratic party...people who actually care about the outreach and not just checking a box and getting paid. Or the Culinary Union in Nevada. These people care about actual results. 

4 minutes ago, Tuco said:

1.  That's just for people who don't want to walk.  Usually the biggest issue is getting people to knock on doors and talk to strangers.  That would be way easier to fake.  

2. The vendor has zero financial interest in catching and firing cheaters.  Fewer employees=less income. They get a cut of every fake.  I imagine the fakers pull in more dollars per hour than those actually doing the work. 

I mean, what unmitigated bullshit.  Here is someone explaining how they have been successfully gaming the system, and the these dipshits are trying to pretend it's impossible. 

You nailed it. Ding Ding Ding Ding Ding.

The bond market is pricing in a GOP sweep. The “Trump trade” expects high inflation if Trump wins. Trump tariffs are inflationary. 

So continuing to add 15-25k per day.  

348k now (D/R) puts the 390k there reachable at Thursday (if you average 20k a day today + tomorrow)

30k a day (D/R + I) would give you 500k by Monday (probably from the weekend dump) 

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The real Slim Shady stands up for Kamala Harris

 

Marshall fucking HATES Trump. 

Leopards eating faces:

Voting for your own genocide is certainly a choice...

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3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Leopards eating faces:

Voting for your own genocide is certainly a choice...

Fuck them. I won’t cry when they get deported or their entire family gets nuked in Gaza 

Does the 390K buffer number for PA make sense given how different early voting is this time than last time?  Wasn't that number built on expectations of people's early vs day-of voting looking like previous years -- and we're already seeing it doesn't?

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump ruined an Arnold Palmer (ice tea and lemonade) for everyone now. You can’t order it now.

It should come packaged(pun intended) like this from now on… 

image.jpeg.fe1e5e2cdfaf04cce65c3b9a054875bf.jpeg

5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Leopards eating faces:

Voting for your own genocide is certainly a choice...

by comparison, 2020 looked like 59D-35R :

 

Quote

Because Arab American voters view President Donald Trump as having been ineffective in addressing most issues of priority concern to their community, 59% say they are casting their ballots for Democratic candidate Joseph Biden with only 35% voting to reelect President Trump. This is one of the findings of a nationwide poll of 805 Arab American voters conducted by the Arab American Institute during the second week of October 2020.

https://www.aaiusa.org/library/the-arab-american-vote-2020

3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Does the 390K buffer number for PA make sense given how different early voting is this time than last time?  Wasn't that number built on expectations of people's early vs day-of voting looking like previous years -- and we're already seeing it doesn't?

This was based on 2022 style voting, which is going to mirror 2024 voting (about a quarter of the total votes by mail and 75% in person). He did not derive that number based on how people voted in 2020, because it was much more polarized mail vs in person 

He accurately called both the 2022 races and 2023 SCOPA race. 

The part where he is over 46% is the most insane bit of this all.

8 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Interestingly enough, secondary indicators like this are the one thing that DOES give me comfort.  Her team is well aware of the importance of focusing on the battlegrounds (the lesson that Hillary's neglect taught us all).  So, KNOWING that she knows that, and seeing that she is taking time to hit a non-battleground (or at least a very, very longshot battleground)?  That tells me that she has some good data.

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Fuck them. I won’t cry when they get deported or their entire family gets nuked in Gaza 

Yep.  Fuck em all.  When Trump wins, and Bibi has full gloves-off, with 10 shipments a day of fucking 10,000 pound bombs coming from Trump's executive order pen, wiping out Gaza and Gazans completely without even the pretense of avoiding killing civilians and committing full-on ethnic cleansing, every fucking Arab American can SHUT.  THE FUCK.  UP.

You chose this, after the whole world told you this is what you are choosing.  Live with the consequences, and don't look to me for a fucking molecule of sympathy.  You decided to go full "Jews for Hitler" -- you lost all basis to bitch about the gas chambers he told you he was building to exterminate you.

8 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Does the 390K buffer number for PA make sense given how different early voting is this time than last time?  Wasn't that number built on expectations of people's early vs day-of voting looking like previous years -- and we're already seeing it doesn't?

The buffer is based on partisan data, not total votes.

Just now, G650 said:

The part where he is over 46% is the most insane bit of this all.

And it is why I will never leave the ledge.

A country that would go 46% for someone who is literally the worst, most malevolent candidate for POTUS in American History, is not a country that can or should be saved.  Anyone whose body is 46% cancer should be fucking euthanized.

I hope those purity tests for Arab Americans taste real great with genocide. It's a natural pairing. 

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I hope those purity tests for Arab Americans taste real great with genocide. It's a natural pairing. 

f7786a39-e779-4343-be23-06d57bf3af66_tex

Fucking.  Idiots.

2 minutes ago, G650 said:

The part where he is over 46% is the most insane bit of this all.

 

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Interestingly enough, secondary indicators like this are the one thing that DOES give me comfort.  Her team is well aware of the importance of focusing on the battlegrounds (the lesson that Hillary's neglect taught us all).  So, KNOWING that she knows that, and seeing that she is taking time to hit a non-battleground (or at least a very, very longshot battleground)?  That tells me that she has some good data.

Yep.  Fuck em all.  When Trump wins, and Bibi has full gloves-off, with 10 shipments a day of fucking 10,000 pound bombs coming from Trump's executive order pen, wiping out Gaza and Gazans completely without even the pretense of avoiding killing civilians and committing full-on ethnic cleansing, every fucking Arab American can SHUT.  THE FUCK.  UP.

You chose this, after the whole world told you this is what you are choosing.  Live with the consequences, and don't look to me for a fucking molecule of sympathy.  You decided to go full "Jews for Hitler" -- you lost all basis to bitch about the gas chambers he told you he was building to exterminate you.

I'm almost to this point ...

the-big-lebowski-jeff-bridges.png

Bring this dipshit on once again. Let's flush American as we know it down the fucking toilet. Let's see it happen and then do the most Gen X thing ever:

fucking-told-you-8c2acd31ce.jpg

And then I get out of this fucking hell hole.

1 hour ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

 

 

 

I'm increasingly angry that the Harris campaign hasn't gone scorched earth on Trump.  The truth is that negative ads work.  He should be tarred 24/7 with Felon, sex offender, fascist... etc.  But nope they're gonna play it cute and tongue in cheek.

Probably feel this way because the Trumpkins here are starting to come back out of the closet.  It's infuriating.

12 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Leopards eating faces:

Voting for your own genocide is certainly a choice...

 

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

by comparison, 2020 looked like 59D-35R :

 

https://www.aaiusa.org/library/the-arab-american-vote-2020

It's worth noting that The Arab News is a Saudi-funded paper. I would like to understand how the sampling was done, but I imagine they had a call list rather than just pulling numbers out at random hoping to get Arab-Americans.  If that call list was provided by The Arab News, it is likely the respondents were generally pro-Saudi, or at least regularly receive the pro-Saudi paper. The Saudi Arabia government does not give a shit about Palestine and is definitely friendly to Trump.  So, I would take this poll with a chunk of salt. 

2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

 

I'm almost to this point ...

the-big-lebowski-jeff-bridges.png

Bring this dipshit on once again. Let's flush American as we know it down the fucking toilet. Let's see it happen and then do the most Gen X thing ever:

fucking-told-you-8c2acd31ce.jpg

And then I get out of this fucking hell hole.

I'm about where you are.

You want to fucking wreck the whole fucking thing?  Fine.  Have at it.  End the Republic.  Join hands with Bibi to exterminate all Palestinians from the Levant.  Hand Europe over to Putin.  You want all that shit?  You get it, enjoy.

When you then cry about the top-to-bottom misery you wrought, well, we fucking told you so.

I will tell you one thing for sure: when Trump wins, I'm no longer just talking about the grifting of MAGA idiots, I am going to do it.  I NEED to do it, because I need to build a pretty fucking big nest egg to fund my escape plan.  Y'all can have the fascist shithole you always wanted, I'll take 10% of your money and then GTFO and leave you to it.

13 minutes ago, G650 said:

The part where he is over 46% is the most insane bit of this all.

It’s just inflation and nothing else. Things cost more when Biden was president and less when Trump was president. There is no thought beyond the surface level of that metric. No ability to comprehend why even if they had the desire to understand what happened. 

maybe sprinkle in a little misogyny. 

53 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

The bond market is pricing in a GOP sweep. The “Trump trade” expects high inflation if Trump wins. Trump tariffs are inflationary. 

I listened to Paul Tudor Jones this morning on CNBC and he said he expects deficits to increase $500B under Trump and another $600B on top of that if Harris wins.  So, at least according to him, we are pretty fucked either way.  Minsky moment potential on mid/long dated treasuries.  

I can't speak for Arab Americans, but my experience with Iranians is that a lot of them like Trump as well. 

My stab at why: They don't necessarily have an issue with a dictatorship or a fascist, power hungry leader. They think there is a possibility of good ones and bad ones. And they think Trump would do good. 

 

 

Man, if people re-elect that fucking moron because of inflation after all the hell he put the country through for 4 years then we deserve the utter ruin this country will become. At least people will have something to post angrily about online for 4 years. Shit isn't going to cost less under Trump if he tariffs everything. We really are a stupid fucking nation and deserve our fate. Muslims voting for the Muslim ban guy. Simply amazing. 

Edited by mdmost

Just now, mdmost said:

We really are a stupid fucking nation and deserve our fate. 

Yep

9 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

This board:

 

She's focusing on the states that matter!  She's not dumb like Hillary!

She's leaving the states that matter! She knows it's in the bag!

The polls have Harris losing, the betting markets have Harris losing, she’s doing dumb shit like going to Houston… a lot of copium being hit around here.

21 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

This is exactly what the campaign should continue to tell people to keep them focused.  No complacency, nothing.  

Almost literally the very first thing Trump did when taking office in 2017 was ban Muslims from entering the country. This included Muslim-Americans returning home from visiting relatives in the middle east. And the Supreme Court upheld it. If Muslim-Americans don't think this time he'll do worse to them, I really don't think there's going to be any way to convince them. That's a level of stupid usually reserved for wealthy white people who get afforded infinite opportunities to fuck up.

I'm increasingly angry that the Harris campaign hasn't gone scorched earth on Trump.  The truth is that negative ads work.  He should be tarred 24/7 with Felon, sex offender, fascist... etc.  But nope they're gonna play it cute and tongue in cheek.
Probably feel this way because the Trumpkins here are starting to come back out of the closet.  It's infuriating.

I find myself getting frustrated at some of the ads I see that are like “Donald Trump’s policies might be bad for some of America…..”

Yeah he’s not Mitt fucking Romney. Shit like that is just more normalization of the worst candidate for office in the history of this country.
16 minutes ago, locodos said:

I'm increasingly angry that the Harris campaign hasn't gone scorched earth on Trump.  The truth is that negative ads work.  He should be tarred 24/7 with Felon, sex offender, fascist... etc.  But nope they're gonna play it cute and tongue in cheek.

Probably feel this way because the Trumpkins here are starting to come back out of the closet.  It's infuriating.

Remember, they did media studies that the more negative she went on Trump, the more it hurt her numbers.  Voters responded way better to her positive ads.

22 minutes ago, G650 said:

The part where he is over 46% is the most insane bit of this all.

People on this board and blue safe spaces can laugh about the McDonald’s business, but I worry about the all these little stunts. He’s good at this and they work. 

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump ruined an Arnold Palmer (ice tea and lemonade) for everyone now. You can’t order it now.

You just have to say you want a big old glass of Arnold Palmer 

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Remember, they did media studies that the more negative she went on Trump, the more it hurt her numbers.  Voters responded way better to her positive ads.

I assumed that was the case, but I think it is a HUGE mistake.  Don't normalize his awefulness.  That allows the BOTH SIDES crowd to feel ok about being a horrible person by voting for a horrible agenda.  Make grandma pull the lever for a rapist.

Edited by locodos

12 minutes ago, Helobious said:

The polls have Harris losing, the betting markets have Harris losing, she’s doing dumb shit like going to Houston… a lot of copium being hit around here.

Fuck me, I've found myself in agreement with this guy, I need to take a long hard look in the mirror. 

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6 minutes ago, Helobious said:

The polls have Harris losing, the betting markets have Harris losing, she’s doing dumb shit like going to Houston… a lot of copium being hit around here.

the polls that are skewing the numbers towards Trump are all GOP friendly and the betting markets showing Trump leading are seeing big money thrown in by big GOP supporters.  and the GOP is now telling us that the machines are rigged bc they're flipping Trump votes to Harris.  see a pattern?  the GOP needs to convince America that Trump is winning this thing bigly heading into November 5 based on the polls and betting markets.  and when he starts getting crushed on November 5, he can say, "See, the Dems are cheating.  I had this thing locked up.  The machines are flipping votes.  Rigged rigged rigged!"

i'll trust Harris's internals suggesting that she can spare a night in Houston than the polls and betting markets.

To share a bottle of whiskey with Brisket on the ledge, we are a few weeks a way from these 2 scenarios: 

1. Trump loses, and there will be blood in the streets again. For those of us paying attention, we were not surprised at all with what happened on January 6th.  Trump will deny election results but since he's not in power right now that will be tamped down legally fairly quickly. Eventually Trump makes the decision to run in 2028, or leave the country, or makes a deal to avoid jail time. If he goes away (inshallah), the GOP is in shambles and there is a glimmer of hope to pick up the pieces of American society and function again. 

2. Trump wins, and society becomes completely broken for at least a generation if not more. The "civil war" won't be an actual war, but a clear separation within communities that will happen swiftly and silently. People will just find their tribe and hold on for dear life. It's already kind of been happening, but it will be much more obvious and the general apathy towards each side will make a lot of institutions in this country crumble. 

 

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Remember, they did media studies that the more negative she went on Trump, the more it hurt her numbers.  Voters responded way better to her positive ads.

Yep.  His shitiness is a feature to his followers. 

 I mean, calling BIden a pig?  Talking about A. Palmer's cock?  Ha ha, how funny is that!

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