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FINAL 2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #4 /#3 (CFP/AP/Coaches)


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Posted

If you look at the AP Top 15, according to ESPN's Strength of Schedule metric our schedule is tougher than that of 7 of those 15 teams.

This "Texas played nobody" nonsense is not being applied equally.  Our schedule is objectively more difficult than those of Oregon, Indiana (LOL), BYU, Miami, Notre Dame, SMU and Boise State.  It's approximately equal to Penn State's schedule.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

If you look at the AP Top 15, according to ESPN's Strength of Schedule metric our schedule is tougher than that of 7 of those 15 teams.

This "Texas played nobody" nonsense is not being applied equally.  Our schedule is objectively more difficult than those of Oregon, Indiana (LOL), BYU, Miami, Notre Dame, SMU and Boise State.  It's approximately equal to Penn State's schedule.

We CAN't hAVe 5 SeC TeAMs iN ThE PLayoFf!

It is so fucking hilarious that now the SEC is not a weekly meat grinder like it has been for 15 years and bad losses don't matter.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Ohio State has helmet bias and their 2 losses would be to two top 5 teams, with a win over another top 5 team

I think they’re safely in even if they lose. I think Penn St may end up the odd one out if 4 B1G teams don’t get in, but I think they will 

The Big Ten must be the new "MeatGrinder"tm

Posted
Just now, dcar00 said:

The Big Ten must be the new "MeatGrinder"tm

If Indiana wins - 4 B1G, 4 SEC, 1 Big 12, 1 ACC, 1 G5, ND 

Assuming we have a chalky last 2 weeks and not pure chaos. my assumption is that the SEC and B1G CCG losers will make it in, barring some sort of massive 70-3 blowout 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

this should be the 1-line reply every instance of bitching about our schedule

put it on blast far and wide throughout the land

Yup.  Our SOS is 38, Penn State's is 35.

Posted
14 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

If you look at the AP Top 15, according to ESPN's Strength of Schedule metric our schedule is tougher than that of 7 of those 15 teams.

This "Texas played nobody" nonsense is not being applied equally.  Our schedule is objectively more difficult than those of Oregon, Indiana (LOL), BYU, Miami, Notre Dame, SMU and Boise State.  It's approximately equal to Penn State's schedule.

Similarly, the top 20 from Sagarin - Texas has the #7 SOS of that list.  And Aggy/Tenn are only marginally better.

College Football 2024 through 2024 November 16 Saturday - Week #12
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.12]                                               [  3.12]       [  3.23]       [  3.00]       [  3.00]
   1  Alabama              A  =  92.37    8   2   76.72(   9)    1   1  |    4   1  |   91.36    1 |   91.90    5 |   96.38    2 |  100.43    4  SEC                 (A)
   2  Texas                A  =  92.33    9   1   73.05(  38)    0   1  |    2   1  |   90.87    2 |   92.62    3 |   96.00    3 |   98.94    5  SEC                 (A)
   3  Ohio State           A  =  92.11    9   1   69.63(  61)    1   1  |    2   1  |   90.24    5 |   93.00    2 |   95.64    5 |  100.86    3  BIG TEN             (A)
   4  Georgia              A  =  92.07    8   2   80.65(   1)    2   2  |    4   2  |   90.62    4 |   94.11    1 |   93.88    6 |   94.11    8  SEC                 (A)
   5  Mississippi          A  =  91.96    8   2   72.46(  44)    1   0  |    3   1  |   90.69    3 |   91.12    6 |   96.93    1 |  102.72    1  SEC                 (A)
   6  Notre Dame           A  =  91.12    9   1   68.04(  67)    0   0  |    2   0  |   89.90    6 |   90.31    7 |   95.83    4 |  101.07    2  I-A IND.            (A)
   7  Oregon               A  =  89.82   11   0   71.60(  52)    1   0  |    2   0  |   87.84    7 |   91.96    4 |   91.92    8 |   94.56    7  BIG TEN             (A)
   8  Penn State           A  =  88.94    9   1   72.28(  46)    0   1  |    1   1  |   87.42    8 |   89.30    8 |   92.12    7 |   96.00    6  BIG TEN             (A)
   9  Tennessee            A  =  85.59    8   2   73.37(  35)    1   1  |    3   1  |   85.21    9 |   86.12    9 |   86.68    9 |   88.50   14  SEC                 (A)
  10  Miami-Florida        A  =  84.65    9   1   70.62(  59)    0   0  |    2   0  |   83.28   11 |   86.07   10 |   85.88   12 |   88.57   13  ACC                 (A)
College Football 2024 through 2024 November 16 Saturday - Week #12
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.12]                                               [  3.12]       [  3.23]       [  3.00]       [  3.00]
  11  South Carolina       A  =  84.39    7   3   77.82(   5)    0   2  |    3   3  |   84.33   10 |   84.07   12 |   85.90   11 |   90.31   11  SEC                 (A)
  12  Indiana              A  =  83.68   10   0   65.90(  77)    0   0  |    0   0  |   82.99   12 |   83.95   14 |   85.13   14 |   91.58    9  BIG TEN             (A)
  13  Colorado             A  =  83.33    8   2   75.13(  22)    0   0  |    0   1  |   82.70   13 |   82.35   18 |   86.25   10 |   91.46   10  BIG 12              (A)
  14  Clemson              A  =  83.18    8   2   71.74(  51)    0   1  |    0   2  |   82.13   15 |   82.90   17 |   85.70   13 |   88.39   15  ACC                 (A)
  15  Texas A&M            A  =  82.95    8   2   73.38(  34)    0   1  |    3   2  |   82.29   14 |   84.91   11 |   82.63   18 |   82.71   22  SEC                 (A)
  16  SMU                  A  =  82.79    9   1   69.30(  64)    0   0  |    1   1  |   81.67   19 |   83.95   13 |   83.70   16 |   87.14   16  ACC                 (A)
  17  Iowa State           A  =  82.32    8   2   72.79(  41)    0   0  |    1   1  |   81.87   18 |   83.32   15 |   82.55   19 |   84.29   19  BIG 12              (A)
  18  LSU                  A  =  81.94    6   4   79.20(   3)    1   1  |    2   4  |   82.04   17 |   82.93   16 |   81.56   22 |   79.61   31  SEC                 (A)
  19  Iowa                 A  =  81.69    6   4   72.60(  43)    0   1  |    0   2  |   82.11   16 |   80.88   23 |   82.88   17 |   84.06   20  BIG TEN             (A)
  20  Tulane               A  =  81.16    9   2   64.17(  90)    0   0  |    0   2  |   81.35   20 |   79.03   27 |   84.45   15 |   90.18   12  AMERICAN ATHLETIC   (A)
Posted

Fuck a five-gallon bucket full of "what if...".

Just win, baby, just win.

 

But, as for what actually happened so far, as opposed to what if...

The only difference between our SEC schedule and Tennessee's is that we play aggy and they play Bama. We beat Piggy while they didn't. I haven't heard a buncha bitchin' about how soft Tennessee's schedule is.

And speaking of results... Oregon squeaked by Wiscy by a field goal, and Bama kicked the living shit outta the Badgers. Transitive or no, there's something to chew on.

 

Posted

We obviously need to take care of business against Kentucky for the following to matter, but:

The "nobody is talking about" conversation is NOT whether Texas loses to aggy.

It's that there's a very real possibility that Tennessee loses to Vandy and Ole Miss loses to Florida (now that they have Lagway back.)

In that scenario we'd have a great chance to "back in" even with a loss at aggy.

Posted

Per the ESPN playoff calculator, chances of making CFP:

Texas- 10-2: 75%, 11-2: 99%, 9-3: 2%
Georgia- 10-2: 99%, 10-3: 83%, 9-3: 51%

Ole Miss: 10-2: 86%, 10-3: 62%, 9-3: 1%
Tennessee- 10-2: 83%, 19-3: 24%, 9-3: 1%
Bama- 10-2: 99%, 10-3: 71%, 9-3: 17%
TAMU- 10-3: 58%, 9-3: 5%, 9-4: 1%
 

I am curious about the assumptions that have the SEC CG loss lowering chances versus not playing in the game at all. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Pancho said:

I don’t know if it’s surprising or right on brand that UGA and Tennessee fans have picked up A&M’s juvenile antics and proclaim Texas paid for or heavily influenced the SEC to give us this schedule.

Its like those people live for conspiracy theories because it’s easier than just applying logic and reasoning.

We bribed Saban into retiring and bribed DeBoer to replace him, and we also bribed Connor Stallions and Jim Harbaugh so that our inaugural SEC season would be perfect, then the big cigars bribed Quinn Ewers and Sark to throw the Georgia game so that there would be plausible deniability. The phantom DPI call was choreographed and staged, Jahdae Barron and Arian Smith were in league, as was the first beer thrower, and the referees who we paid reversed the call just so that everyone else knows who's boss and who really runs things. They're not even trying to hide it.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, statsman said:

Per the ESPN playoff calculator, chances of making CFP:

Texas- 10-2: 75%, 11-2: 99%, 9-3: 2%
Georgia- 10-2: 99%, 10-3: 83%, 9-3: 51%

Ole Miss: 10-2: 86%, 10-3: 62%, 9-3: 1%
Tennessee- 10-2: 83%, 19-3: 24%, 9-3: 1%
Bama- 10-2: 99%, 10-3: 71%, 9-3: 17%
TAMU- 10-3: 58%, 9-3: 5%, 9-4: 1%
 

I am curious about the assumptions that have the SEC CG loss lowering chances versus not playing in the game at all. 

Edit. Nevermind.  This must be a different calculator than the one I looked at yesterday.

Edited by Skipper
Posted
2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

A 10-2 Texas more likely to get in compared to a 10-2 Georgia tells me all I need to know about that "calculator".  0% chance that would happen.

I think you have it backwards. Calculator says 10-2 UGA (win out, no CG) has a 99% chance. 10-2 Texas (1-1, no CG) has 75% chance. That doesn’t make sense to you?

Posted
32 minutes ago, statsman said:

I think you have it backwards. Calculator says 10-2 UGA (win out, no CG) has a 99% chance. 10-2 Texas (1-1, no CG) has 75% chance. That doesn’t make sense to you?

Right.  I edited too slowly.  There was a calculator someone posted somewhere yesterday that let you play out outcomes and it had us in over Georgia I believe which made no sense.

Posted
2 hours ago, chainsaw said:

We bribed Saban into retiring and bribed DeBoer to replace him, and we also bribed Connor Stallions and Jim Harbaugh so that our inaugural SEC season would be perfect, then the big cigars bribed Quinn Ewers and Sark to throw the Georgia game so that there would be plausible deniability. The phantom DPI call was choreographed and staged, Jahdae Barron and Arian Smith were in league, as was the first beer thrower, and the referees who we paid reversed the call just so that everyone else knows who's boss and who really runs things. They're not even trying to hide it.

even though you copypasted this from texags, we know it's real because there is no accusation of bribing 0u in to sucking

Posted

In addition to Texas having wins over the unranked teams that beat Bama, Ole Miss and Tennessee, CSU being 7-3 is sneaky good for our resume.  We (currently) have played only .500 and above teams in non-conf and the only under-.500 team we've played is MSST

Of course, that will change Saturday with Kentucky being 4-6, and how the end of season shakes up for all the 5-5 teams like OU, Florida, ULM, UTSA, Arkansas and Michigan.  If a couple of them can finish 7-5, it will add a little more legitimacy to our resume. 

And of course, ending with a win against 9-3 aggy would help a lot. (bc we will win) 

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Posted (edited)

Seems to be a lot of whining about how Super Conferences suck ass from a scheduling perspective.

Well no shit. This is always going to be a problem. This is why we shouldn't have these damn 16 team conferences when you only have 8 or 9 conference games.

Fortunately we sort of delt with this problem with the playoff so ultimately you have to beat the top teams.

Edited by Valmy77
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Posted

Next year UTEP could theoretically make the playoff and win a natty. That wouldn't have been possible last year or any other prior year. Could they be fucked on seeding and ranking? Yes, but there's no way an undefeated team isn't going to make the playoff.

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Posted
5 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

this should be the 1-line reply every instance of bitching about our schedule

put it on blast far and wide throughout the land


And let’s not forget that TN’s conf schedule is only 1 different opponent than ours.

 

Posted
38 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Seems to be a lot of whining about how Super Conferences suck ass from a scheduling perspective.

Well no shit. This is always going to be a problem. This is why we shouldn't have these damn 16 team conferences when you only have 8 or 9 conference games.

Fortunately we sort of delt with this problem with the playoff so ultimately you have to beat the top teams.

What sucks ass is at-large bids.

They need to stop. 

Devise a system of automatic bids only.

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Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

What sucks ass is at-large bids.

They need to stop. 

Devise a system of automatic bids only.

Disagree. At-large bids allow for putting better teams in the playoff when the relative strengths of conferences vary. Guaranteeing the B12 runner-up a spot might make for more predictability, but there will be years when they belong and years when they do not. Much like with March madness, I think at-large bids are important.

Posted
5 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

My gf is 50. I think they're pretty perky. 😁

This, plus she has sort of an Aubrey Plaza thing going on which actually aligns well with her take which are mostly just contrary Mofo stuff. It generates clicks and debates... so.. it's working well.

Posted
1 minute ago, Magus Ossis said:

Disagree. At-large bids allow for putting better teams in the playoff when the relative strengths of conferences vary. Guaranteeing the B12 runner-up a spot might make for more predictability, but there will be years when they belong and years when they do not. Much like with March madness, I think at-large bids are important.

And you get to this dumb shit about a committee picking who goes. It's stupid.

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Magus Ossis said:

Disagree. At-large bids allow for putting better teams in the playoff when the relative strengths of conferences vary. Guaranteeing the B12 runner-up a spot might make for more predictability, but there will be years when they belong and years when they do not. Much like with March madness, I think at-large bids are important.

Counter point Notre Dame.

They're going to get in every year if they have less than 3 losses. Schedule be damned and they'll never be in a Conference champion game.

Nobody is bitching about NDs shitty Schedule, massively shitty loss, and other frankly mediocre at the eye test play. 

Nobody is even questioning them. 

They could lose another an I bet they still make it in over some far more deserving teams that potentially played in an lost a CCG.

Notre Dame completely invalidates at large. They, alone, make it broken.

When you add all the other perception and subjective aspects to the selection, it goes from broken to completely fucked.

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

And you get to this dumb shit about a committee picking who goes. It's stupid.

I agree that the subjective aspect is frustrating. I think the combination of automatic and at-large bids helps ensure both that (major conference) teams have a "safe" path to the playoffs (win the conference) without the need for committee support as well as an opportunity to "come back" if they are having a good year, but might have some early-season wart or other one-off problem that caused them to miss or lose the CCG. There seem to be years when the #2 or #3 team from one conference is objectively (Sagarin, PFF, or whatever) better than other conferences' champions. Not everyone will agree, but I like the way the 12-team field allows for both paths to the post-season.

Edited by Magus Ossis
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Posted
1 hour ago, Valmy77 said:

Seems to be a lot of whining about how Super Conferences suck ass from a scheduling perspective.

Well no shit. This is always going to be a problem. This is why we shouldn't have these damn 16 team conferences when you only have 8 or 9 conference games.

Fortunately we sort of delt with this problem with the playoff so ultimately you have to beat the top teams.

There is however a monumental difference in the B1G dregs and SEC dregs. The SEC has tried to maintain some modicum of football decency in the 6 additions even though to date 0 of those teams have won the SECCG (hopefully we fix that this year)

Adding Maryland & Rutgers were never going to move the football needle Tom Herman be damned.

They already had plenty of shitty historical football programs between Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, & Illinois. Mix in the catastrophic Nebraska results and you have a real shit stew going on

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Posted
43 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

What sucks ass is at-large bids.

They need to stop. 

Devise a system of automatic bids only.

I was planning on doing a computer type thing.  My first thought was to call it BCS or something like that but then I thought....nah, that wouldn't work.

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Posted
46 minutes ago, Magus Ossis said:

Disagree. At-large bids allow for putting better teams in the playoff when the relative strengths of conferences vary. Guaranteeing the B12 runner-up a spot might make for more predictability, but there will be years when they belong and years when they do not. Much like with March madness, I think at-large bids are important.

I think the CCG runner-ups should make it, assuming they are ranked in the top 16 or so. 

The CCG is playing for a bye, but the loser should not be punished unless it's 70-3 or 59-0. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I think the CCG runner-ups should make it, assuming they are ranked in the top 16 or so. 

The CCG is playing for a bye, but the loser should not be punished unless it's 70-3 or 59-0. 

I pretty much agree with these sentiments. I think having rankings plays a role, and then put teams in with degrees of bid certainty: top 4 (or whatever) champions are seeded 1-4 and given byes. 5th (or whatever) champ gets auto-bid. Next, all champs in top X get bids. Next, all runners-up in top Y get bids. Then fill remaining spots with highest ranked remaining teams. The harder question would be how fairly (and hopefully objectively) to distinguish between CCG losses and CCG beat-downs.

Posted
Just now, Magus Ossis said:

I pretty much agree with these sentiments. I think having rankings plays a role, and then put teams in with degrees of bid certainty: top 4 (or whatever) champions are seeded 1-4 and given byes. 5th (or whatever) champ gets auto-bid. Next, all champs in top X get bids. Next, all runners-up in top Y get bids. Then fill remaining spots with highest ranked remaining teams. The harder question would be how fairly (and hopefully objectively) to distinguish between CCG losses and CCG beat-downs.

I think if you're a borderline top 16 CCG participant (think a #13 LSU or #15 SMU) and you get beat down by 3 TDs, you probably just ended up on the wrong side of the playoff bubble and opened the door for someone else who was maybe #3 in their conference but is ranked in the top 15-20.

Posted
37 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

There is however a monumental difference in the B1G dregs and SEC dregs. The SEC has tried to maintain some modicum of football decency in the 6 additions even though to date 0 of those teams have won the SECCG (hopefully we fix that this year)

Adding Maryland & Rutgers were never going to move the football needle Tom Herman be damned.

They already had plenty of shitty historical football programs between Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, & Illinois. Mix in the catastrophic Nebraska results and you have a real shit stew going on

Too soon

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Posted

interesting thread on SOR on reddit worth checking out 

https://old.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1gvqsvp/cfp_rankings_compared_to_strength_of_record/

main take aways, hate on texas is over stated. this matches up pretty well with both wins AND losses . 

Biggest delta are Notre Dame, Colorado, Tulane, and UNLV are overrated 

UGA, BYU are the teams getting the most disrespect (LSU would be there too with at least 6 spots of difference)

 

Posted (edited)

Hahaha that thread is full of people suggesting things that computer ratings systems have been doing for 30 years. 

Particularly hilarious is where they say you could use SOR but then consider MOV but not straight MOV because there should be diminishing returns on blowouts. ESPN's Strength of Record but with MOV considered but not straight MOV is exactly what FPI is. Idiots. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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Posted

I checked out theSMU ON3 board. They are very salty about Texas. 
 
On Klatt’s podcast, he noted that the best thing for the SEC is for:

1. ND to lose and open up another at large spot. 
2. Texas to beat TAMU to get the number of 2-loss or fewer SEC teams to five, to avoid protracted hair splitting debate. 

Posted

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1859223075255898493.html

Spoiler
So #CFBPlayoff rankings, were u surprised? Its a predictable process unchanged for 10 yrs. @CFBMatrix & I have projected better than any entity & have done so for a decade. We've been off only an avg of 0.68 places per team for the entire Top 15 this season. Let’s take a look.🧵 
15 #TAMU #GigEm

Projected 15. Spot on. This is where the #Aggies will stay until that big #Texas game (more on that later). SOS 31, 3 QWs, 2 T25Ws. Those are all good enuf to be ranked higher but game control is low at 12.2 (2nd lowest in the poll). 
14 #BYU #Cougars

Projected 12. Ok, so this is the only team that may have a gripe this week. Just a small one though. Typically, w/similar resumes the committee will give credence to head 2 head results. #BYU beat #SMU head 2 head (cont) 
...(#BYU cont) so it was a bit odd they fell below them. They must feel the resumes are dis-similar enough to justify it. SOS at 100 & the worst game control in the poll (12.1) make that justifiable. They do have 3 QWs & 2 T25Ws. 
13 #SMU #PonyUp

Projected 13. Bingo. So what separates #Miami from #SMU? Both have similar SOS (82 vs 91), QWs (4 vs 2), T25Ws (1 vs 1) so why is #SMU outside the Top 12? Game control. Its one of the most important metrics & #SMU has the 3rd worst in the poll at 17.5. 
12 #BoiseState #Broncos

Projected 14. Very similar profile to #SMU. SOS 87, 4 QWs, 1 T25W, & a game control of 18.9. If the Big 12 champion ends with 1 L, I would expect Boise to drop out of the bye round based on past behavior; but for now the #Broncos have that 1st round bye. 
11 #Tennessee #Vols

Projected 11. I warned #Vols fans last week an L vs #UGA would drop them out of contention & thats exactly what happened. Unless there is a major shakeup the #Vols will be sitting this first expanded playoffs out. SOS 90, 1 QW, 1 T25W, & GC 21.1 will do that. 
10 #Georgia #GoDawgs

Projected 10. Surprised yet? #UGA has a great profile, SOS 17, 3 QW, 3 T25W. Only fly in the ointment is game control (12.3). The L to both #Alabama & #OleMiss will keep them here, but they should be in the playoff albeit traveling for the holidays. 
9 #OleMiss #HottyToddy

Projected 9. That W vs #UGA is huge. It likely sealed #OleMiss as a playoff team. The profile is just ok (SOS 75, 3 QW, 2 T25W) but they have the 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.8 which helps overcome that bad L to #Kentucky. 
8 #Miami #Canes

Projected 7. Right near where projected. So why did the 1 L #Canes slip below 2 L #Bama? It was extremely close in the model & not a surprise the committee made the jump. Compare the profiles: SOS 91, 2 QW, 1 T25W, Game control 21.9. Now see #Alabama. 
7 #Alabama #RTR

Projected 8. Not surprised by this flip at all. #Bama may have the best profile in the poll. SOS 15, 5 QW, 4 T25W, game control 22.6. Even with 2 Ls that type of profile is going to go a long way with the committee. 
6 #NotreDame #GoIrish

Projected 6. Perfect. The #Irish do have an iron clad profile: SOS is low at 86 but game control is high at 26.6. 5 QW & 2 T25Ws. They, however, can’t afford another slip up. Win out and the #Irish should end up the 5 or 6 seed. 
5 #Indiana #Hoosiers

Projected 5. So how can a team w/ a SOS of 118 and only 1 QW be ranked so high? 0 Ls & the highest game control in the poll at 30.1. Game control above 30 is exceptional. The #Hoosiers can afford an L to #OhioState, but it can’t get out of hand. 
4 #PennState #WeAre

Projected 4. The #NittanyLions have done everything asked except beat the #Buckeyes. SOS 96 isn’t great, but the moderate game control at 19.4 makes up for it along w/ the 4 QWs. They can’t afford a slip up or they will tumble out. 
3 #Texas #HookEm

Projected 3. How competitive is this playoff field? If the #Longhorns were upset in that last game vs #TAMU, they likely would go from 3, to out. The margin is that tight. SOS 60 is adequate but only 2 QWs w/0 T25Ws is concerning. Game control is good at 25.1. 
2 #OhioState #Buckeyes

Projected 2. The #Buckeyes are the only team I can see w/1 L that could lose another & be ok. As long as that L is a close one to #Oregon. SOS 63 is ok. 3 QWs is fine. 1 T25W is a bit low but ok. 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.5 is their ally. 
1 #Oregon #GoDucks

Projected 1. Barring a late season collapse, the #Ducks are in. Its just a matter of seeding now. They either have a bye as a Conference Champ or Autzen gets to be showcased as a playoff destination. Both options should sound great to #Oregon fans. 

tl;dr:

The committee uses four criteria for ranking: Strength of Schedule, Quality Wins, Top 25 wins, and "Game Control."

Texas is ranked where we are due to our SOS of 60 and a Game Control number of 25.1. Hurt by lack of QWs and that six of our wins are teams that are currently .500 and most will likely finish that way. 

SEC teams behind us not named Georgia and Bama are hurt by their overall strength of schedule (turns out scheduling trash OOC teams means something - UGA and Bama rewarded for scheduling P4 OOC games).

UGA hurt by game control number of 12.3 (hello Kentucky and Florida games). 

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Posted
1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

Counter point Notre Dame.

They're going to get in every year if they have less than 3 losses. Schedule be damned and they'll never be in a Conference champion game.

Nobody is bitching about NDs shitty Schedule, massively shitty loss, and other frankly mediocre at the eye test play. 

Nobody is even questioning them. 

They could lose another an I bet they still make it in over some far more deserving teams that potentially played in an lost a CCG.

Notre Dame completely invalidates at large. They, alone, make it broken.

When you add all the other perception and subjective aspects to the selection, it goes from broken to completely fucked.

yes, but the sec and b1g made their bed and are lying in it - they bargained with jesus and the compromise was domer remains special and above it all in exchange for never getting a bye

it's why the national media are completely ignoring them - there's no controversy - lose and they're out - win and they're in

Posted
58 minutes ago, statsman said:

I checked out theSMU ON3 board. They are very salty about Texas. 
 
 

There’s 6 other one loss teams ahead of them what are they salty about Texas for?

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Posted
1 hour ago, statsman said:

I checked out theSMU ON3 board. They are very salty about Texas. 
 
On Klatt’s podcast, he noted that the best thing for the SEC is for:

1. ND to lose and open up another at large spot. 
2. Texas to beat TAMU to get the number of 2-loss or fewer SEC teams to five, to avoid protracted hair splitting debate. 

Hopefully Sankey has a little talk with the stripes

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Posted
51 minutes ago, The Dog said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1859223075255898493.html

  Reveal hidden contents
So #CFBPlayoff rankings, were u surprised? Its a predictable process unchanged for 10 yrs. @CFBMatrix & I have projected better than any entity & have done so for a decade. We've been off only an avg of 0.68 places per team for the entire Top 15 this season. Let’s take a look.🧵 
15 #TAMU #GigEm

Projected 15. Spot on. This is where the #Aggies will stay until that big #Texas game (more on that later). SOS 31, 3 QWs, 2 T25Ws. Those are all good enuf to be ranked higher but game control is low at 12.2 (2nd lowest in the poll). 
14 #BYU #Cougars

Projected 12. Ok, so this is the only team that may have a gripe this week. Just a small one though. Typically, w/similar resumes the committee will give credence to head 2 head results. #BYU beat #SMU head 2 head (cont) 
...(#BYU cont) so it was a bit odd they fell below them. They must feel the resumes are dis-similar enough to justify it. SOS at 100 & the worst game control in the poll (12.1) make that justifiable. They do have 3 QWs & 2 T25Ws. 
13 #SMU #PonyUp

Projected 13. Bingo. So what separates #Miami from #SMU? Both have similar SOS (82 vs 91), QWs (4 vs 2), T25Ws (1 vs 1) so why is #SMU outside the Top 12? Game control. Its one of the most important metrics & #SMU has the 3rd worst in the poll at 17.5. 
12 #BoiseState #Broncos

Projected 14. Very similar profile to #SMU. SOS 87, 4 QWs, 1 T25W, & a game control of 18.9. If the Big 12 champion ends with 1 L, I would expect Boise to drop out of the bye round based on past behavior; but for now the #Broncos have that 1st round bye. 
11 #Tennessee #Vols

Projected 11. I warned #Vols fans last week an L vs #UGA would drop them out of contention & thats exactly what happened. Unless there is a major shakeup the #Vols will be sitting this first expanded playoffs out. SOS 90, 1 QW, 1 T25W, & GC 21.1 will do that. 
10 #Georgia #GoDawgs

Projected 10. Surprised yet? #UGA has a great profile, SOS 17, 3 QW, 3 T25W. Only fly in the ointment is game control (12.3). The L to both #Alabama & #OleMiss will keep them here, but they should be in the playoff albeit traveling for the holidays. 
9 #OleMiss #HottyToddy

Projected 9. That W vs #UGA is huge. It likely sealed #OleMiss as a playoff team. The profile is just ok (SOS 75, 3 QW, 2 T25W) but they have the 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.8 which helps overcome that bad L to #Kentucky. 
8 #Miami #Canes

Projected 7. Right near where projected. So why did the 1 L #Canes slip below 2 L #Bama? It was extremely close in the model & not a surprise the committee made the jump. Compare the profiles: SOS 91, 2 QW, 1 T25W, Game control 21.9. Now see #Alabama. 
7 #Alabama #RTR

Projected 8. Not surprised by this flip at all. #Bama may have the best profile in the poll. SOS 15, 5 QW, 4 T25W, game control 22.6. Even with 2 Ls that type of profile is going to go a long way with the committee. 
6 #NotreDame #GoIrish

Projected 6. Perfect. The #Irish do have an iron clad profile: SOS is low at 86 but game control is high at 26.6. 5 QW & 2 T25Ws. They, however, can’t afford another slip up. Win out and the #Irish should end up the 5 or 6 seed. 
5 #Indiana #Hoosiers

Projected 5. So how can a team w/ a SOS of 118 and only 1 QW be ranked so high? 0 Ls & the highest game control in the poll at 30.1. Game control above 30 is exceptional. The #Hoosiers can afford an L to #OhioState, but it can’t get out of hand. 
4 #PennState #WeAre

Projected 4. The #NittanyLions have done everything asked except beat the #Buckeyes. SOS 96 isn’t great, but the moderate game control at 19.4 makes up for it along w/ the 4 QWs. They can’t afford a slip up or they will tumble out. 
3 #Texas #HookEm

Projected 3. How competitive is this playoff field? If the #Longhorns were upset in that last game vs #TAMU, they likely would go from 3, to out. The margin is that tight. SOS 60 is adequate but only 2 QWs w/0 T25Ws is concerning. Game control is good at 25.1. 
2 #OhioState #Buckeyes

Projected 2. The #Buckeyes are the only team I can see w/1 L that could lose another & be ok. As long as that L is a close one to #Oregon. SOS 63 is ok. 3 QWs is fine. 1 T25W is a bit low but ok. 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.5 is their ally. 
1 #Oregon #GoDucks

Projected 1. Barring a late season collapse, the #Ducks are in. Its just a matter of seeding now. They either have a bye as a Conference Champ or Autzen gets to be showcased as a playoff destination. Both options should sound great to #Oregon fans. 

tl;dr:

The committee uses four criteria for ranking: Strength of Schedule, Quality Wins, Top 25 wins, and "Game Control."

Texas is ranked where we are due to our SOS of 60 and a Game Control number of 25.1. Hurt by lack of QWs and that six of our wins are teams that are currently .500 and most will likely finish that way. 

SEC teams behind us not named Georgia and Bama are hurt by their overall strength of schedule (turns out scheduling trash OOC teams means something - UGA and Bama rewarded for scheduling P4 OOC games).

UGA hurt by game control number of 12.3 (hello Kentucky and Florida games). 

This is interesting.  It means who you lose to doesn't matter(I guess your game control goes lower in a loss but I know nothing on how that is calculated).  Unless they start by ranking everyone by # of losses and then start moving teams around based on the other criteria, losses don't matter at all.

Posted
39 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

This is interesting.  It means who you lose to doesn't matter(I guess your game control goes lower in a loss but I know nothing on how that is calculated).  Unless they start by ranking everyone by # of losses and then start moving teams around based on the other criteria, losses don't matter at all.

So loses don't matter at all? 

Posted

David Hale: Who should be most angry in Week 13? Everyone not named Texas in the SEC

Quote

Let's state something at the top: Texas is probably quite good. It is, of course, not the Longhorns' fault they joined the SEC and still drew a Big 12-caliber schedule. But facts are facts, and in a conference with six eight-win teams and four more already bowl eligible, Texas has played exactly two Power 4 opponents with a winning record this season. Those games resulted in a three-point win over Vanderbilt and a shellacking by Georgia. But Texas has one loss, and the rest of the SEC competition has two or three. Is that all that should matter?

Ultimately, winning games is the most important thing, and the committee seems to recognize that with Indiana at No. 5, despite a schedule that might well have included a home game against Bishop Sycamore. But is it all that matters? If Texas played Georgia's schedule, would it still have a better record? Their head-to-head meeting would suggest otherwise.

Again, it's hardly Texas' fault the SEC rolled out the red carpet in Year 1. But it is up to Texas to impress when the spotlight is on, and since the blowout win against Michigan -- a team vastly overrated at the time -- the marquee moments have been mostly meh, right up to last week's mediocrity against Arkansas.

Ultimately, an incredibly good SEC team -- Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, South Carolina or Alabama -- is going to end up having played a markedly tougher schedule, proved they can hang with the best of the best, and either go on the road for a arduous opening-round matchup or be left out altogether. (Seriously, how is Georgia the 10th-best team in the country? There's no logical argument.) But Texas? Even with a loss to A&M, it's hard to see the Horns falling from No. 3 to a place outside the top 11.

 

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