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FINAL 2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #4 /#3 (CFP/AP/Coaches)


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Posted
5 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

Seems to be a lot of whining about how Super Conferences suck ass from a scheduling perspective.

Well no shit. This is always going to be a problem. This is why we shouldn't have these damn 16 team conferences when you only have 8 or 9 conference games.

Fortunately we sort of delt with this problem with the playoff so ultimately you have to beat the top teams.

That’s why we should split the conference in half and have an SECe and SECw.  We can shorten it to be the SEC and SWC, and Aggies will implode for good when they have to trade in their patches.  

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Posted

I really hope the talking heads keep talking shit about Texas and how we haven't beaten anyone, blah blah blah.  Opposite of rat poison.  Could be one more thing Sark can use to motivate.   

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

SIAP...

 

 

 

Or they could try to win out and get the 1 seed.  Tough call.

Edited by WBT
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Posted
24 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Texas and A&M each have two more SEC games.  Several other teams have at least one.

We COULD wait until the end of the season and see how it all shakes out, see if there's any reason to actually get up in arms.

But nah, it's way better to engage in histrionics about things that might be, things that haven't happened and very well might not ever happen.  It's better for clicks and eyeballs and whatnot.  Same as it ever was.

Agreed.

A huge chunk of the teams people are whining about right now are either going to be completely out of it or prove themselves in the next three weeks. 

Arguing about Indiana right now is like trying to say the Commanders can't beat Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Like... Okay? Fuck em, but let's see what happens.

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Posted
3 hours ago, The Dog said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1859223075255898493.html

  Reveal hidden contents
So #CFBPlayoff rankings, were u surprised? Its a predictable process unchanged for 10 yrs. @CFBMatrix & I have projected better than any entity & have done so for a decade. We've been off only an avg of 0.68 places per team for the entire Top 15 this season. Let’s take a look.🧵 
15 #TAMU #GigEm

Projected 15. Spot on. This is where the #Aggies will stay until that big #Texas game (more on that later). SOS 31, 3 QWs, 2 T25Ws. Those are all good enuf to be ranked higher but game control is low at 12.2 (2nd lowest in the poll). 
14 #BYU #Cougars

Projected 12. Ok, so this is the only team that may have a gripe this week. Just a small one though. Typically, w/similar resumes the committee will give credence to head 2 head results. #BYU beat #SMU head 2 head (cont) 
...(#BYU cont) so it was a bit odd they fell below them. They must feel the resumes are dis-similar enough to justify it. SOS at 100 & the worst game control in the poll (12.1) make that justifiable. They do have 3 QWs & 2 T25Ws. 
13 #SMU #PonyUp

Projected 13. Bingo. So what separates #Miami from #SMU? Both have similar SOS (82 vs 91), QWs (4 vs 2), T25Ws (1 vs 1) so why is #SMU outside the Top 12? Game control. Its one of the most important metrics & #SMU has the 3rd worst in the poll at 17.5. 
12 #BoiseState #Broncos

Projected 14. Very similar profile to #SMU. SOS 87, 4 QWs, 1 T25W, & a game control of 18.9. If the Big 12 champion ends with 1 L, I would expect Boise to drop out of the bye round based on past behavior; but for now the #Broncos have that 1st round bye. 
11 #Tennessee #Vols

Projected 11. I warned #Vols fans last week an L vs #UGA would drop them out of contention & thats exactly what happened. Unless there is a major shakeup the #Vols will be sitting this first expanded playoffs out. SOS 90, 1 QW, 1 T25W, & GC 21.1 will do that. 
10 #Georgia #GoDawgs

Projected 10. Surprised yet? #UGA has a great profile, SOS 17, 3 QW, 3 T25W. Only fly in the ointment is game control (12.3). The L to both #Alabama & #OleMiss will keep them here, but they should be in the playoff albeit traveling for the holidays. 
9 #OleMiss #HottyToddy

Projected 9. That W vs #UGA is huge. It likely sealed #OleMiss as a playoff team. The profile is just ok (SOS 75, 3 QW, 2 T25W) but they have the 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.8 which helps overcome that bad L to #Kentucky. 
8 #Miami #Canes

Projected 7. Right near where projected. So why did the 1 L #Canes slip below 2 L #Bama? It was extremely close in the model & not a surprise the committee made the jump. Compare the profiles: SOS 91, 2 QW, 1 T25W, Game control 21.9. Now see #Alabama. 
7 #Alabama #RTR

Projected 8. Not surprised by this flip at all. #Bama may have the best profile in the poll. SOS 15, 5 QW, 4 T25W, game control 22.6. Even with 2 Ls that type of profile is going to go a long way with the committee. 
6 #NotreDame #GoIrish

Projected 6. Perfect. The #Irish do have an iron clad profile: SOS is low at 86 but game control is high at 26.6. 5 QW & 2 T25Ws. They, however, can’t afford another slip up. Win out and the #Irish should end up the 5 or 6 seed. 
5 #Indiana #Hoosiers

Projected 5. So how can a team w/ a SOS of 118 and only 1 QW be ranked so high? 0 Ls & the highest game control in the poll at 30.1. Game control above 30 is exceptional. The #Hoosiers can afford an L to #OhioState, but it can’t get out of hand. 
4 #PennState #WeAre

Projected 4. The #NittanyLions have done everything asked except beat the #Buckeyes. SOS 96 isn’t great, but the moderate game control at 19.4 makes up for it along w/ the 4 QWs. They can’t afford a slip up or they will tumble out. 
3 #Texas #HookEm

Projected 3. How competitive is this playoff field? If the #Longhorns were upset in that last game vs #TAMU, they likely would go from 3, to out. The margin is that tight. SOS 60 is adequate but only 2 QWs w/0 T25Ws is concerning. Game control is good at 25.1. 
2 #OhioState #Buckeyes

Projected 2. The #Buckeyes are the only team I can see w/1 L that could lose another & be ok. As long as that L is a close one to #Oregon. SOS 63 is ok. 3 QWs is fine. 1 T25W is a bit low but ok. 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.5 is their ally. 
1 #Oregon #GoDucks

Projected 1. Barring a late season collapse, the #Ducks are in. Its just a matter of seeding now. They either have a bye as a Conference Champ or Autzen gets to be showcased as a playoff destination. Both options should sound great to #Oregon fans. 

tl;dr:

The committee uses four criteria for ranking: Strength of Schedule, Quality Wins, Top 25 wins, and "Game Control."

Texas is ranked where we are due to our SOS of 60 and a Game Control number of 25.1. Hurt by lack of QWs and that six of our wins are teams that are currently .500 and most will likely finish that way. 

SEC teams behind us not named Georgia and Bama are hurt by their overall strength of schedule (turns out scheduling trash OOC teams means something - UGA and Bama rewarded for scheduling P4 OOC games).

UGA hurt by game control number of 12.3 (hello Kentucky and Florida games). 

I think what the writer describes as "game control" is the ESPN creation that they use in their own calculation of relative team strength. That is not the same thing that the CFP committee uses which, as far as I know, has no clear definition.  However they look at it, that metric has to be a big plus for Texas. Other than the UGA game Texas has only trailed against OU (3-0) for about 2 minutes and Vandy (7-0) for about 5 minutes. 

I am almost positive we have never been behind after the 1st quarter outside of UGA.  

Posted
4 hours ago, statsman said:

I checked out theSMU ON3 board. They are very salty about Texas. 
 
On Klatt’s podcast, he noted that the best thing for the SEC is for:

1. ND to lose and open up another at large spot. 
2. Texas to beat TAMU to get the number of 2-loss or fewer SEC teams to five, to avoid protracted hair splitting debate. 

Heard Klatt on Cowherd today making the case that one or two 2-loss SEC teams could be a surprise leave-out of the final CFP, using Texas as a prime example on the basis that their best victory is Vanderbilt.  Felt like he thinks Texas needs another significant win.  

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Posted
22 hours ago, westexhorn said:

7-3 in the 3rd qtr Aggies vs NM St?

Yes. It was comically close before the 4th quarter. I don't remember the exact score but it was low. Like, embarrassingly low before they pulled away. Those clowns aren't beating anyone with a pulse. LSU sucks and we're about to land 5 star former commit, Kade Phillips again, and Mizzou has been a running joke all season. 

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Posted
22 hours ago, westexhorn said:

7-3 in the 3rd qtr Aggies vs NM St?

 

22 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

If you ignore the first half,still wrong but closer?

 

22 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Forget it, he's rolling.

OK, OK, you know I'm retarded. What's it to you?

Posted

11-1 Texas that wins the SEC regular season is going into the playoffs win or lose the SEC title game.  The overall résumé will look fine. 
 

10-2 Texas that fucks up one of these last two games will be on the bubble and deservedly so.  Seems like all the talking heads are freaking out but making these basic points. 

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Posted
13 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

There’s 6 other one loss teams ahead of them what are they salty about Texas for?

It’s a long story. There are only a few SMU football fans that hung around since the 1980’s. They repeat a tale of their Death Penalty woes as being due to Texas (it’s not true, but Texas was the program they were aiming at, at the time). That has become a theme on their message board- big, bad Texas trying to hold them down, stealing what is rightfully theirs. 
 
I know the response from Texas is “Who? What?”

Posted
15 hours ago, statsman said:

I checked out theSMU ON3 board. They are very salty about Texas. 
 

Lil ol' private school in the heart of fancy Dallas whose best years were based on throwing illegal money around to ED and CJK5H? Salty about the big state school just down the road, the poors who suddenly became new money because of oil discoveries on PUF land 100 years ago?  Who since, under everyone else's watchful eyes, have built a campus and football program with a history and promise second to none? 

That's a real head-scratcher. You'd think those Dallas high-society types would be pleased that a little investment and hard work paid off for their no-longer-country cousins. Not our fault we had to move to a bigger neighborhood to maintain our business and social ties.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, statsman said:

I know the response from Texas is “Who? What?”

And yet you’re lurking their message boards in pursuit of a narrative. The “big bad Texas” mystique from all directions is because UT is “the Joneses,” Yankees, Lakers, Cowboys, the team everyone loves to hate. The specific complaints are just filling between the lines. I’d just embrace it already.

Anyway, it was before my time, but I always thought aggy was their primary beef back then ala Dickerson with each blaming the other for turning them in to the NCAA. My guess is the SWC left behinds like SMU would be madder at UT for killing the conference not NCAA shit. SMU was definitely cheating their asses off, not sure there’s any legitimate belief otherwise.

Edited by 'stache
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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, 'stache said:

And yet you’re lurking their message boards in pursuit of a narrative. The “big bad Texas” mystique from all directions is because UT is “the Joneses,” Yankees, Lakers, Cowboys, the team everyone loves to hate. The specific complaints are just filling between the lines. I’d just embrace it already.

Anyway, it was before my time, but I always thought aggy was their primary beef back then ala Dickerson with each blaming the other for turning them in to the NCAA. My guess is the SWC left behinds like SMU would be madder at UT for killing the conference not NCAA shit. SMU was definitely cheating their asses off, not sure there’s any legitimate belief otherwise.

There were more subplots than a soap opera back then. Everybody hated everybody and almost nobody but Rice escaped the ban hammer. SMU and A&M were the worst, and I still contend that the main reason A&M didn't get the death penalty as well was because it would have slammed Bryan-College Station's economy. I still have a copy of that NCAA report laying around somewhere -- was working at A&M at the time and we got the report.

But Houston and TCU were right up there, and those guys would have killed the conference even if the new TV alliances weren't already pulling things apart. When Texas got probation for Marcus Dupree's who's-to-blame boots and Eric Metcalf's ride across campus (among other piddly stuff), that may have sealed the deal. 

Still, it made for some epic football. Miss those days for the playing environment, but I think I'll miss the old Big XII more. 

Edited by Hayduke
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Hayduke said:

There were more subplots than a soap opera back then. Everybody hated everybody and almost nobody but Rice escaped the ban hammer. SMU and A&M were the worst, and I still contend that the main reason A&M didn't get the death penalty as well was because it would have slammed Bryan-College Station's economy.

But Houston and TCU were right up there, and those guys would have killed the conference even if the new TV alliances weren't already pulling things apart. When Texas got probation for Marcus Dupree's who's-to-blame boots and Eric Metcalf's ride across campus (among other piddly stuff), that may have sealed the deal. 

Still, it made for some epic football. Miss those days for the playing environment, but I think I'll miss the old Big XII more. 

I'll be honest, I am finding the post-apocalypse Big XII highly entertaining. They combined the lower-brow Pac teams (but not, like, Wazzu low) with the Hateful Eight with some G5 occasional overachievers (BYU, Cincy, UCF, Houston) and the result has been absolute madness.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'll be honest, I am finding the post-apocalypse Big XII highly entertaining. They combined the lower-brow Pac teams (but not, like, Wazzu low) with the Hateful Eight with some G5 occasional overachievers (BYU, Cincy, UCF, Houston) and the result has been absolute madness.

Agree, B12 has been fun to watch this season.  It always was. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'll be honest, I am finding the post-apocalypse Big XII highly entertaining. They combined the lower-brow Pac teams (but not, like, Wazzu low) with the Hateful Eight with some G5 occasional overachievers (BYU, Cincy, UCF, Houston) and the result has been absolute madness.

I thought I was going to find it a lot more entertaining, but our absence from it has kept me from watching much. Probably has more to do with where my head is with life in general right now -- sometimes there's too much going on and the bandwidth has to go somewhere else.

But I would have loved road trips to Colorado, Arizona and Utah. That's a hell of a Plains/Near West conference with tremendous historic and geographical appeal. And a Texas-Colorado matchup with Neon Deion would be epic.

Posted
14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah that would have been a real shame...

Lived there 14 years and have no great love for the area, but personally, I would not have relished having to work so hard to find a good place to eat.

Still have family and a few good friends there. Most are probably 2 percenters, and they always made it more bearable. I definitely sang Mac Davis with a B-CS twist when I drove out of there with our U-Haul back in 2002 -- even if I was moving to Manhattan.

Posted

I'm really looking forward to the first true tiebreaker fiasco with the new divisionless megaconference setup. I think I saw that both the Big XII and SEC have a "conference strength of schedule" tiebreaker somewhere along the line. Seems like some serious bullshit since a program has no control over the schedule and how good those teams end up. At the beginning of the year everyone thought the strongest Big XII schedules would be those with OSU, Utah, UA, and/or KU on them, and the weakest would include ASU and CU, yet here we are, lol. 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I'm really looking forward to the first true tiebreaker fiasco with the new divisionless megaconference setup. I think I saw that both the Big XII and SEC have a "conference strength of schedule" tiebreaker somewhere along the line. Seems like some serious bullshit since a program has no control over the schedule and how good those teams end up. At the beginning of the year everyone thought the strongest Big XII schedules would be those with OSU, Utah, UA, and/or KU on them, and the weakest would include ASU and CU, yet here we are, lol. 

Remember how long it took the Big 12 last year to clarify Texas had clinched spot?

The B1G just took 2 days to work through all the tiebreakers to announce Oregon had clinched a spot. 

If it is taking conference officials 2-3 days to figure out their own rules, the rules are stupid AF. 

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Posted
On 11/19/2024 at 8:52 PM, GabrielsHorn said:

She really is a beating. I don’t know how she got pushed into national coverage at multiple locations when her analysis is generally trash. Dinich is significantly superior but doesn’t look like a Hollywood star so…
 

 

Her only real redeeming quality is that she sort of looks like Aubrey Plaza

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Remember how long it took the Big 12 last year to clarify Texas had clinched spot?

The B1G just took 2 days to work through all the tiebreakers to announce Oregon had clinched a spot. 

If it is taking conference officials 2-3 days to figure out their own rules, the rules are stupid AF. 

I remember that even the notnothing.net algorithm was wrong in determining second place scenarios. It's going to be a complete clusterfuck at some point.

Edited by 'stache
Posted
Just now, 'stache said:

I remember that even the notnothing.net algorythm was wrong in determining second place. It's going to be a complete clusterfuck at some point.

Because all conferences use really weird wording that has two or three meanings. 

The mega conference scheduling is so fucked without divisions or pods. 

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Posted

It's possible for there to be a 3-way tie of undefeated teams in conference play with these super conferences if they don't use pods to rotate divisions. Imagine that situation. One team will be left out because of a schedule they don't control and will be an undefeated power conference team that doesn't get a bye. 

And the team that loses the CCG will be rated even lower than the undefeated team that missed it because now they have a loss. Obviously this is unlikely to ever actually happen but if your structure makes it a possibility then your structure sucks. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Hayduke said:

Lil ol' private school in the heart of fancy Dallas whose best years were based on throwing illegal money around to ED and CJK5H? Salty about the big state school just down the road, the poors who suddenly became new money because of oil discoveries on PUF land 100 years ago?  Who since, under everyone else's watchful eyes, have built a campus and football program with a history and promise second to none? 

That's a real head-scratcher. You'd think those Dallas high-society types would be pleased that a little investment and hard work paid off for their no-longer-country cousins. Not our fault we had to move to a bigger neighborhood to maintain our business and social ties.

if anyone has an axe to grind with pony it's aggy who might have done something in 82 (dickerson's senior year was sherrill's first)

Posted
45 minutes ago, campcrunk said:

Her only real redeeming quality is that she sort of looks like Aubrey Plaza

Generally, she's a good journalist who puts in the work to verify claims and sources and facts and wild shit like that. She's even won awards for it. Legacy media and even much of sports media could learn from her on those fronts. As a commentator on XM 84 and elsewhere, she's not normally taking a position as a journalist, and she's a Michigan alum, so for sure she's going to be far less redeeming in that context for us as Texas fans. 

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Posted

I have been of the opinion that if you are not one of the best 8 teams in the country then you do not deserve to be in a playoff. The thing I liked about the 12 team playoff is that 4 teams were filler and anyone outside of the last four had as much argument as last 4 to make it into the playoff so who cares. So the BIG XII, ACC and GROUP of 5 take a spot even though they are outside the top 12 fine let them have their fun. You think you were the 9th best team in the country but did not get in since the committee thought someone else was the 9th best team do better next time. Bottom line I agree with Saban the top 5 or 6 teams with a realistic chance to win it all are always going to make it into the play off.

Now that Texas is being talked about as having a chance to end up outside the top 8 and possibly out of the top 12 if god forbid they lose to aggy will I stick to my guns and not be pissed off. Of course not since standing on principal only works until one is affected.

Posted (edited)

TeXaS pLaYs NoBoDy

 

In the top 12, Texas would rank 7th in SOS, closer to Penn State than Oregon is to us. 

Can the internet and the committee start bitching about Oregon and Notre Dame and Miami and Boise instead? 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

TeXaS pLaYs NoBoDy

In the top 12, Texas would rank 7th in SOS, closer to Penn State than Oregon is to us. 

Can the internet and the committee start bitching about Oregon and Notre Dame and Miami and Boise instead? 

I literally posted this yesterday.  Hopefully the "media" will begin to pick up on it.

Posted
1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

I literally posted this yesterday.  Hopefully the "media" will begin to pick up on it.

You posted a tweet from this morning yesterday? 
Keanu Reeves Reaction GIF

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Posted
6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Hopefully the "media" will begin to pick up on it.

Oh I'm sure it'll be "they can't help who they play!" because only Texas has 100% control over their conference schedule and clearly knew Michigan would lose Harbaugh, half the staff and a dozen players to the NFL when they scheduled this a decade ago. 

Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Oh I'm sure it'll be "they can't help who they play!" because only Texas has 100% control over their conference schedule and clearly knew Michigan would lose Harbaugh, half the staff and a dozen players to the NFL when they scheduled this a decade ago. 

Didn't we originally schedule Georgia for a home and home noncon series?  It's not like we're ducking blueboods.  Ohio State, ND, LSU, Michigan, Georgia, etc.

EDIT:  oh, and it's not like we didn't lose 11 players to the draft this year.

Edited by jimmyjazz
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Remember how long it took the Big 12 last year to clarify Texas had clinched spot?

The B1G just took 2 days to work through all the tiebreakers to announce Oregon had clinched a spot. 

If it is taking conference officials 2-3 days to figure out their own rules, the rules are stupid AF. 

Not sure why they haven't already written a program to just do this all for them. That shouldn't be difficult.

Edit: I see above about the past fuck ups even with algorithms. Who do they have doing this shit for them? Some college social media intern? As dysfunctional as Yormark seems, he's probably trying to do it himself with Copilot or some shit.

Edited by MuellerHorn
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Posted
11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Oh I'm sure it'll be "they can't help who they play!" because only Texas has 100% control over their conference schedule and clearly knew Michigan would lose Harbaugh, half the staff and a dozen players to the NFL when they scheduled this a decade ago. 

The funny thing is that Notre Dame has complete control over who they play and they have the 2nd worst SOS.  Indiana's SOS should actually be disqualifying, #106 .  Army should be right behind them at #7

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