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FINAL 2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #4 /#3 (CFP/AP/Coaches)


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Posted

Like I said this morning, if there's anything the NCAA committees are extremely consistent about, it's overseeding and underseeding as needed for storylines and tv and get cute with matchups.  Someone is going to get underseeded so they can try to set up potential 2nd round matchups they think will bring in viewers and someone else is going to get overseeded to avoid 4 northern hosting sites in round 1. 

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Posted
22 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Quick check so I might have missed something, but if you are looking at second halves of non-Georgia games:

  • Mississippi State was down 14-6 for the entire 3Q (15 mins)
  • Vanderbilt was down 24-17 from 3:11 in the 3rd until 2:00 in the 4th (16:11) and then within 3 for the final 0:46.

330 second half minutes played outside Georgia, the opponent has been within one score for about 32 of them.  So not only are we leading, 90% of the time the other team isn't even within striking distance.

Fucking domination.

ND is up there with Texas by that metric across all 12 games.  We lost NIU in the last minute and otherwise trailed only a few times early in the game.  

Posted
2 hours ago, Drew said:

This.

Also This.

 

I do not think they'll let the possibility of a rematch happen in the first or 2nd round. Maybe the semi finals, as it's too hard to manipulate that far out.

Yes, but if we win it will either be Georgia or Ohio State at the 7 seed (and our QF opponent in New Orleans). If we lose, we will get a home playoff game against the 11/12 seed and then face a bad conference champion. Basically a cakewalk to the SF. So the whole system is broken. I guess that can be the silver lining if we lose. 

Posted
47 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

ND is up there with Texas by that metric across all 12 games.  We lost NIU in the last minute and otherwise trailed only a few times early in the game.  

Not at all trying to diminish the season Notre Dame has had, as there is no doubt there has been a lot of domination there.  But y'all trailed for more minutes against Miami (OH) (a game that you ended up winning 28-3) than we have combined all season to non-Georgia opponents.  Again, not trying to insult Notre Dame here, but merely trying to highlight how batshit this season has been for the Longhorns when you dig into the numbers.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Not at all trying to diminish the season Notre Dame has had, as there is no doubt there has been a lot of domination there.  But y'all trailed for more minutes against Miami (OH) (a game that you ended up winning 28-3) than we have combined all season to non-Georgia opponents.  Again, not trying to insult Notre Dame here, but merely trying to highlight how batshit this season has been for the Longhorns when you dig into the numbers.

No, go ahead and diminish it. They lost to fucking NIU and they really didn’t play many other teams worth a shit. SOS is near 60.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, justhookit said:

No, go ahead and diminish it. They lost to fucking NIU and they really didn’t play many other teams worth a shit. SOS is near 60.

Dave Chapelle GIF by moodman

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Posted
3 hours ago, Crockett said:

Just a reminder that Arkansas, who beat Tennessee, lost to Oklahoma State, who lost every conference game in the Big 12. 

Let's follow the transitive property a little further.  It's a circle.

Texas > Michigan > tOSU > Nebraska > Colorado > Ok St > Ark > Tenn > Bama > Georgia > Texas

And now everyone sucks :)

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Posted
27 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Not at all trying to diminish the season Notre Dame has had, as there is no doubt there has been a lot of domination there.  But y'all trailed for more minutes against Miami (OH) (a game that you ended up winning 28-3) than we have combined all season to non-Georgia opponents.  Again, not trying to insult Notre Dame here, but merely trying to highlight how batshit this season has been for the Longhorns when you dig into the numbers.

I will gladly insult notre dame. They suck and they lost to Norther fucking Illinois. They are, like usual, being propped up by their weak schedule and helmet school hype. They will be going out the playoffs the first time they face a team with a pulse. This pattern of flaming out will continue forever until they decide to join a real conference and not schedule hack schools that dont prepare you for the big boys. 

Posted
39 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Yes, but if we win it will either be Georgia or Ohio State at the 7 seed (and our QF opponent in New Orleans). If we lose, we will get a home playoff game against the 11/12 seed and then face a bad conference champion. Basically a cakewalk to the SF. So the whole system is broken. I guess that can be the silver lining if we lose. 

This is based on an assumption that #5 gets to play a team like UNLV at home.  If you posit that the PC allows TV ratings to influence their seeding, then it becomes likely that you are hosting Alabama or some other talented team that lost a few.  And, an IU type 11-1 will always be 5-8 so you don't meet them.

I would not trade places. I think the first round bye is best unless you have a crystal ball that says you always play G5 then Big12. 

5 hours ago, Tex-19 said:

I fully support the idea of guaranteeing at least one team from multiple conferences, although Big 12 is lucky to be an auto-bid conference nowadays. The variety is good for the sport and teams barely play out of conference so comparing across conferences is a very rough science.

What's dumb is the reranking after CCGs where someone like Texas or PSU can drop below ND, or SMU drops below Indiana. I mean, imagine making Indiana play tOSU again this weekend and factoring that L in the rankings.

Well, if you want a benefit for winning the CCG then there should be a detriment for losing it. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, notre dame joe said:

This is based on an assumption that #5 gets to play a team like UNLV at home.  If you posit that the PC allows TV ratings to influence their seeding, then it becomes likely that you are hosting Alabama or some other talented team that lost a few.  And, an IU type 11-1 will always be 5-8 so you don't meet them.

I would not trade places. I think the first round bye is best unless you have a crystal ball that says you always play G5 then Big12. 

Well, if you want a benefit for winning the CCG then there should be a detriment for losing it. 

Bama doesnt really scare me, especially at home. I think Texas would win by 2-3 touchdowns. They are not a complete team and teams with good running games and good defenses cause them problems. 

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Posted
10 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

Let's follow the transitive property a little further.  It's a circle.

Texas > Michigan > tOSU > Nebraska > Colorado > Ok St > Ark > Tenn > Bama > Georgia > Texas

And now everyone sucks :)

Playoff's canceled try again next year. 

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Posted

Regarding strength of schedule, I took the CFP rankings (1-12, and didn't go any farther) and looked at W-L vs strength of schedule, both by Sagarin and ESPN (and the average of the two).

image.png.a8f96843679e94ced67f46c2c664edd0.png

 

A couple of things stand out:

-- of the 1-loss teams, their relative order makes sense when one considers strength of schedule

-- of the 2-loss teams, same

 

I can't say (for instance) whether the best 2-loss team should be above any 1-loss teams, but it does make sense that we're above PSU, ND, SMU, IU and Boise State (and that internal order should prevail as well).  The same goes for UGA above tOSU, UTenn and Miami, in order.

 

Posted (edited)

I haven't looked into the playoffs a lot, as I didn't want to get ahead of myself, but jebbus h christ, these playoffs are dumb. In projected cfp scenarios, if we win, we'd play the Georgia / Indiana winner in round 2. Oregon would play OSU / Tennessee winner. Meanwhile, ND would play High Tide for the chance to play Boise St? The fuck? And Penn State would play Clempson / SMU to play Iowa State? What kind of bullshit is this? It seems like it'd be better if we lost tomorrow. (I don't want us to, obviously.) 

Edited by jetsfan76
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Posted
14 minutes ago, jetsfan76 said:

In this theoretical scenario, we'd get a game vs High Tide at home, then play Boise St.

And you think that's easier than literally getting a free win and then playing another game against anyone seeded lower?

Posted
7 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

my wish is for domer to draw indiana

since 1959 they've played once in 1991

At least through the Bobby Knight era, the deal was that we would play them in football if they would schedule us in basketball.  

 

It would make for a great playoff game in South Bend.  

Posted
On 12/4/2024 at 10:26 AM, The Dog said:

There's only one way to settle this. 

6-6 Playoff!

image.png.80f4192ebd7c4d530bcfc9184a27eabe.png

This would be fucking dope. I'd watch the absolute shit out of this tbh. 

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Posted
I haven't looked into the playoffs a lot, as I didn't want to get ahead of myself, but jebbus h christ, these playoffs are dumb. In projected cfp scenarios, if we win, we'd play the Georgia / Indiana winner in round 2. Oregon would play OSU / Tennessee winner. Meanwhile, ND would play High Tide for the chance to play Boise St? The fuck? And Penn State would play Clempson / SMU to play Iowa State? What kind of bullshit is this? It seems like it'd be better if we lost tomorrow. (I don't want us to, obviously.) 

First of all, it is hugely important to win the Conference Championship.

Secondly, it is highly unlikely that Iowa State gets a bye. Not sure why you have them plugged in.
Posted

Is Penn State really going to be ranked ahead of Ohio State if they lose today? They will have identical records and a head to head loss. If Oregon really puts it on them, you also compare that to OSU losing a tight game on the road vs a blowout at a neutral site. 

Posted
14 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

Well, if you want a benefit for winning the CCG then there should be a detriment for losing it. 

There is, you lose the auto bid and bye and have to play an extra game. Anything more is not a detriment but punishment.

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Posted
26 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Is Penn State really going to be ranked ahead of Ohio State if they lose today? They will have identical records and a head to head loss. If Oregon really puts it on them, you also compare that to OSU losing a tight game on the road vs a blowout at a neutral site. 

So you think that Penn St making the CCG means nothing?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

So you think that Penn St making the CCG means nothing?

When it's only because they didn't play anyone but Ohio State in the regular season, yeah. If the tiebreakers had us with a rematch against A&M today and we somehow lost (don't laugh it's a hypothetical) it would be completely justified for 10-2 Georgia to be ahead of 11-2 Texas. They won at our place, same as Ohio State at Penn State. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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Posted
16 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

When it's only because they didn't play anyone but Ohio State in the regular season, yeah. If the tiebreakers had us with a rematch against A&M today and we somehow lost (don't laugh it's a hypothetical) it would be completely justified for 10-2 Georgia to be ahead of 11-2 Texas. They won at our place, same as Ohio State at Penn State. 

Maybe Ohio St shouldn't lose to a shitty Michigan team.

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Posted
54 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Is Penn State really going to be ranked ahead of Ohio State if they lose today? They will have identical records and a head to head loss. If Oregon really puts it on them, you also compare that to OSU losing a tight game on the road vs a blowout at a neutral site. 

Records wouldn't be identical. Osu would be 10-2, psu would be 11-2.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Maybe Ohio St shouldn't lose to a shitty Michigan team.

Maybe they shouldn’t have had to play them at all like Penn State? And maybe Peen State should have a better non conference slate than West Virginia, Kent State and Bowling Green (who actually gave them a game)? Or barely squeak by Minnesota or get taken to overtime by USC? Penn State has a shit resume. They could rectify it by playing well or god forbid actually winning a top 10 matchup for once in their pathetic recent history.

But if I’m looking at those two teams with identical records, one of them has a head to head win, and played their best common opponent much better than the other on the road? I’m having a difficult time slotting Penn State ahead of them just because Ohio State had a terrible day in a rivalry game against the defending national champs. 

8 minutes ago, Lou_Sassle said:

Records wouldn't be identical. Osu would be 10-2, psu would be 11-2.

Good point. But still…

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Maybe Ohio St shouldn't lose to a shitty Michigan team.

Maybe Texas shouldn't have lost to a shitty Texas Tech team in 2008. See how that works? 

Also, do you mean the Michigan team that Penn State didn't have to play? The schedules are too unbalanced with the current conference setups. In this scenario Penn State loses to the same team Ohio State did and also lost to Ohio State. Ohio State lost to a team Penn State didn't even have to play. This is an easy decision. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Maybe Texas shouldn't have lost to a shitty Texas Tech team in 2008. See how that works? 

Also, do you mean the Michigan team that Penn State didn't have to play? 

It’s true we shouldn’t have. A CCG is a plus data point to the committee and therefore if Penn state does lose they should be ahead of Ohio state because of the CCG appearance. It’s pretty cut and dry. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

It’s true we shouldn’t have. A CCG is a plus data point to the committee and therefore if Penn state does lose they should be ahead of Ohio state because of the CCG appearance. It’s pretty cut and dry. 

Tell that to SMU if they lose to Clemson and get jumped by Bama. 

Posted
11 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Regarding strength of schedule, I took the CFP rankings (1-12, and didn't go any farther) and looked at W-L vs strength of schedule, both by Sagarin and ESPN (and the average of the two).

image.png.a8f96843679e94ced67f46c2c664edd0.png

 

A couple of things stand out:

-- of the 1-loss teams, their relative order makes sense when one considers strength of schedule SOS

-- of the 2-loss teams, same

 

I can't say (for instance) whether the best 2-loss team should be above any 1-loss teams, but it does make sense that we're above PSU, ND, SMU, IU and Boise State (and that internal order should prevail as well).  The same goes for UGA above tOSU, UTenn and Miami, in order.

 

It is Interesting how much more the ESPN SOS values of PSU and OSU

Posted
1 hour ago, Magus Ossis said:

Trying to decide who should be ranked higher in these situations is analogous to arguing over what the top floor is in an Escher work.

Yeah there’s no point in arguing really, it’s going to be arranged to make the most money then sell the reasons after. 
 

Who fucking cares, as a Florida and Texas fan, my teams will always get that benefit of doubt over other squads. I’m glad it’s arranged like this. 

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