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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, hornbri said:

Fuck me. That seems so long ago. 

In fairness, history doesn’t matter much in college football anymore.  Who on either team really even cared about those rivalries before they were told about it by fans or coaches.  Maybe 10 guys most of which don’t play.  Everybody has players from New Jersey.  The Arkansas RB did horns down because he saw it on TV once but none of their players really seemed like it mattered.  Nor did ours.  It’s transactional football which the coaches try to turn into something they can use to motivate.

Edited by ClubWhatever
Posted

Horns have played, and beaten, two SEC teams in the AP Top 12.

The ags have played, and beaten, zero SEC teams in the top 25.

Horns have got this.  Enjoy the week, enjoy the victory on Friday, and get ready for an even better ride next year.

  • Hook 'Em 9
Posted

Need to figure out that opposing teams TE can catch the ball. Have given up lots of yards and points as Texas LB seem to not pay attention to guarding middle of field. aggy will feast on this if Texas D keeps playing disconnected between middle and back of D. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
24 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Horns have played, and beaten, two SEC teams in the AP Top 12.

The ags have played, and beaten, zero SEC teams in the top 25.

Horns have got this.  Enjoy the week, enjoy the victory on Friday, and get ready for an even better ride next year.

Next year?

 

ok, aggy

Posted
4 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Beat aggy and then let’s shock the nation next year

Beat aggy, but still too soon for shock the nation

Posted
Just now, EuroHorn said:

Well we all know how shock the nation ended 

Beating A&M!!

As I recall the season ended right after that and nothing else happened.

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Haha 1
Posted

Fuck aggy.  But their offense will absolutely give our back 7 fits.  Our secondary is just butthole.  Absolute butthole.    If our offense can sustain us (can’t believe we flipped course) then we have a shot. But arky moved with ease. I mean ease  and that little midget Reed is shifty (no offense to midgets) 

  • Rage+1 1
Posted

Had this text exchange with my aggy cousin yesterday.  The jokes write themselves but, as usual, aggy doesn't get it.  

You can't make this shit up ---

Image 11-23-25 at 12.34 PM.jpeg

  • Haha 1
  • Drool 1
Posted
8 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

All I know is that we have 5 days and a few hours to work out how to defend the concept of a mobile QB paired up with late-releasing TEs and RBs

Easy, just play 15 yards off the ball and let them rack up first downs at will.

Don't you even PK bro?

  • Rage+1 2
Posted
5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Fuck aggy. 

 

The eternal hemorrhoid.

2 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

All I know is that we have 5 days and a few hours to work out how to defend the concept of a mobile QB paired up with late-releasing TEs and RBs

You’re hired!

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
3 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

Beat aggy and then let’s shock the nation next year

We shocked the nation because nobody expected us to do anything that year. Next year we'll start the season in the top 5. We won't be shocking anyone unless we open like we did this year against Ohio State.

 

2 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Fuck aggy.  But their offense will absolutely give our back 7 fits.  Our secondary is just butthole.  Absolute butthole.    If our offense can sustain us (can’t believe we flipped course) then we have a shot. But arky moved with ease. I mean ease  and that little midget Reed is shifty (no offense to midgets) 

Arky moved with ease? They didn't score the second half until the game was out of reach. Also, if they were moving with ease, why did their opening two drives end in field goals?

They cracked some big plays. They lead the conference (nation?) in those things.

A killer for their first few long gainers was Taffe bouncing off the ball carrier. I'm not talking about the touchdown run. The first two possessions Taffe could have contained them with better tackling. I wonder if he was hesitating to wrap up because of his hand. He popped back to being his old self and contained many plays that would have gone for 15 or 20 further.

Man, we miss Taffe when he's not out there.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, MontereyMX said:

can the league office overturn that?

I mean it was reviewed and upheld.   By definition it probably met the targeting standard despite the clear lack of intent and the fact it the receiver wasn't 5'8 it would have been a perfect form tackle.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Oh, I think a key to the game will be if A&M can field a healthy LeVeon Moss. If they do, I think we might have to score 48 points to beat them. He's a fucking monster to bring down. As you know, that will take pressure off their two main receivers as well. 

I've noticed that some teams have succeeded running on their ends who are hell bent to pass rush.

I feel a Texas victory coming on that will be the first of a humiliating three game losing streak to finish A&M's magical season. They haven't faced teams of the kind they are about to since the second game of the season. I'm not saying they'll be overwhelmed, but a lot of shit they do won't work against better and more evenly spread talent.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Can anyone explain to me how they have a top 25 SOS with their shitty schedule? 

It's just bizarro world.

Oh, and Fuck aggy.

Posted
7 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I mean it was reviewed and upheld.   By definition it probably met the targeting standard despite the clear lack of intent and the fact it the receiver wasn't 5'8 it would have been a perfect form tackle.

We can and will appeal butlike you said, upheld so unlikely the league office would take it back

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

We shocked the nation because nobody expected us to do anything that year. Next year we'll start the season in the top 5. We won't be shocking anyone unless we open like we did this year against Ohio State.

 

Arky moved with ease? They didn't score the second half until the game was out of reach. Also, if they were moving with ease, why did their opening two drives end in field goals?

They cracked some big plays. They lead the conference (nation?) in those things.

A killer for their first few long gainers was Taffe bouncing off the ball carrier. I'm not talking about the touchdown run. The first two possessions Taffe could have contained them with better tackling. I wonder if he was hesitating to wrap up because of his hand. He popped back to being his old self and contained many plays that would have gone for 15 or 20 further.

Man, we miss Taffe when he's not out there.

37 points and 500 yards of offense is moving with ease yes.  I was in the stands. The WRs and TEs ran free all over the field 

Edited by Sgt Hulk
  • Rage+1 1
Posted

First off, AI sucks...  

image.png.8170aea5620b4887396e858b567bfb2b.png

Second, I ran some simulations using AI which favored A&M.  I'm a dumbass so don't ask me to explain anything but, as you read this, all I'll say is "May we win 59-62 wins out of 100" because we're winning with Arch.  Not to mention, 130th red zone defense for Texas A&M?  Damn that's bad.

 

"Thanks — I re-ran the simulations assuming Texas is the home team and tested three reasonable home-field advantage (HFA) values from the literature/bookmaker guidance (2.6, 3.0, and 3.5 points). I searched current analyses for plausible HFA magnitudes (studies and sports-betting practice put college-football HFA roughly 2.6–3.0 points on average; some team-specific rankings give Texas about 3.5). VSiN+2ESPN.com+2

What I changed

  • For each HFA value I subtracted that many points from the A&M-favoring mean margins used earlier:

    • Monte Carlo neutral mean (A&M) = 6.80 pts → new mean = 6.80 − HFA

    • Common-opponent neutral mean (A&M) = 9.333 pts → new mean = 9.333 − HFA

  • Kept game-to-game SD = 13.5 pts, simulated 100 games for a single-run result and ran 1,000 repeated 100-game experiments to show the distribution.

Results (A&M wins out of 100 games)

(Displayed are single 100-game run counts and the 1,000-run mean ± stdev)

HFA = 2.6 pts (lower-end estimate)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 4.20): A&M 61 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 62.21 (sd 4.87).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.73): A&M 68 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 69.20 (sd 4.62).

HFA = 3.0 pts (typical bookmaker avg)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.80): A&M 60 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 60.81 (sd 4.87).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.33): A&M 78 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 67.91 (sd 4.81).

HFA = 3.5 pts (team-specific stronger HFA estimate used by some outlets for Texas)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.30): A&M 59 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 59.41 (sd 5.20).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 5.83): A&M 64 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 66.62 (sd 4.87).

Interpretation

  • Home-field advantage moves the needle: under the Monte-Carlo (team-margin) model, A&M’s expected wins drop from ~69 (neutral) to roughly 59–62 wins out of 100 depending on HFA — i.e., Texas’s home field reduces A&M’s edge by ~6–10 wins per 100 simulated games.

  • Under the common-opponent model A&M still maintains a solid edge (because its common-opponent margin was larger to begin with): expected A&M wins remain in the ~66–69 range (1,000-run means) even after HFA subtraction.

  • Which model you trust matters more than small changes in HFA: if you base predictions on season net margins and common-opponent results, A&M remains favored at Texas’s home field — but by a smaller margin in the Monte model and by a meaningful margin in the common-opponent model.

Sources I used for HFA guidance

  • Recent analyses and sportsbooks estimate college football HFA ≈ 2.6–3.0 points (bookmaker practice and recent studies). VSiN+1

  • Team-specific listings/rankings sometimes assign Texas a ~3.5-pt home advantage based on its home/away performance this season. VSiN+1"

  • Haha 1
Posted
12 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I mean it was reviewed and upheld.   By definition it probably met the targeting standard despite the clear lack of intent and the fact it the receiver wasn't 5'8 it would have been a perfect form tackle.

is it launching if he hits the player while being on the ground?  I haven't seen a good replay of the hit but the one I saw he was on the ground when he contacted the player.  can't tell if the helmets actually hit.

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

 

To be fair, this is a shitty joke

And he texted a winky face to his presumably male cousin. Lame. It should be much easier to make us look dumb, man.

Edited by aggie08
Posted
8 minutes ago, wood said:

Can anyone explain to me how they have a top 25 SOS with their shitty schedule? 

It's just bizarro world.

Oh, and Fuck aggy.

@ Notre Dame helps.  And the bottom tier of the SEC all look like a middle tier team in any other conference, so comparatively, their schedule looks tough even though an easy SEC schedule.

Posted
19 minutes ago, wood said:

Can anyone explain to me how they have a top 25 SOS with their shitty schedule? 

It's just bizarro world.

Oh, and Fuck aggy.

Notre Dame plus SEC.  It's one of the easiest SEC schedules, but it still isn't Boston College and Cal.

Posted
26 minutes ago, texasdago said:

First off, AI sucks...  

image.png.8170aea5620b4887396e858b567bfb2b.png

Second, I ran some simulations using AI which favored A&M.  I'm a dumbass so don't ask me to explain anything but, as you read this, all I'll say is "May we win 59-62 wins out of 100" because we're winning with Arch.  Not to mention, 130th red zone defense for Texas A&M?  Damn that's bad.

 

"Thanks — I re-ran the simulations assuming Texas is the home team and tested three reasonable home-field advantage (HFA) values from the literature/bookmaker guidance (2.6, 3.0, and 3.5 points). I searched current analyses for plausible HFA magnitudes (studies and sports-betting practice put college-football HFA roughly 2.6–3.0 points on average; some team-specific rankings give Texas about 3.5). VSiN+2ESPN.com+2

What I changed

  • For each HFA value I subtracted that many points from the A&M-favoring mean margins used earlier:

    • Monte Carlo neutral mean (A&M) = 6.80 pts → new mean = 6.80 − HFA

    • Common-opponent neutral mean (A&M) = 9.333 pts → new mean = 9.333 − HFA

  • Kept game-to-game SD = 13.5 pts, simulated 100 games for a single-run result and ran 1,000 repeated 100-game experiments to show the distribution.

Results (A&M wins out of 100 games)

(Displayed are single 100-game run counts and the 1,000-run mean ± stdev)

HFA = 2.6 pts (lower-end estimate)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 4.20): A&M 61 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 62.21 (sd 4.87).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.73): A&M 68 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 69.20 (sd 4.62).

HFA = 3.0 pts (typical bookmaker avg)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.80): A&M 60 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 60.81 (sd 4.87).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 6.33): A&M 78 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 67.91 (sd 4.81).

HFA = 3.5 pts (team-specific stronger HFA estimate used by some outlets for Texas)

  • Monte model (mean margin A&M = 3.30): A&M 59 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 59.41 (sd 5.20).

  • Common model (mean margin A&M = 5.83): A&M 64 / 100 in one run; 1,000-run mean ≈ 66.62 (sd 4.87).

Interpretation

  • Home-field advantage moves the needle: under the Monte-Carlo (team-margin) model, A&M’s expected wins drop from ~69 (neutral) to roughly 59–62 wins out of 100 depending on HFA — i.e., Texas’s home field reduces A&M’s edge by ~6–10 wins per 100 simulated games.

  • Under the common-opponent model A&M still maintains a solid edge (because its common-opponent margin was larger to begin with): expected A&M wins remain in the ~66–69 range (1,000-run means) even after HFA subtraction.

  • Which model you trust matters more than small changes in HFA: if you base predictions on season net margins and common-opponent results, A&M remains favored at Texas’s home field — but by a smaller margin in the Monte model and by a meaningful margin in the common-opponent model.

Sources I used for HFA guidance

  • Recent analyses and sportsbooks estimate college football HFA ≈ 2.6–3.0 points (bookmaker practice and recent studies). VSiN+1

  • Team-specific listings/rankings sometimes assign Texas a ~3.5-pt home advantage based on its home/away performance this season. VSiN+1"

Confused Little Girl GIF

Posted
40 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

37 points and 500 yards of offense is moving with ease yes.  I was in the stands. The WRs and TEs ran free all over the field 

I guess I place too much emphasis on scoring defense.

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