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5 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Agreed.

I might guess that Trump would find an isolationist policy to be politically expedient as well as "fitting" his apparent disregard for allies and affinity for Putin, assuming those things are accurate.

I love CR takes in DT. 

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4 hours ago, Parliament said:

That surplus of <35 women is gonna drive down the price of eastern European wives.  Soon they will be within reach of even the lowliest Shagster.

how-much-for-your-wife-whats-your-wife-c

So the Irish fishermen that were going to be disrupting the Russian war games.....on American stations they looked like they just walked out of the pub.

220129142337-ireland-fishermen-donie-osu

But on SkyNews, they are all sober- and business-looking as they describe what they were going to do to the Russians.

skynews-byrne-murphy-ireland_5654307.jpg

Should we arm them with whiskey and fishing boats and turn them loose on the Black Sea?

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6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

flounder-animal-house-dean-vernon-wormer

For what it's worth, the Russians have moved the war games and they are claiming that this is normal.  

But it's still an odd-as-hell place for them to pick for their naval war games right in the middle of all of the Ukrainian stuff.

Yeah, they backed down.  It’s not super odd.  Britain is a maritime power that takes responsibility for Ireland’s defense. They would have to send assets to keep an eye on these exercises and that would reduce their capacity to pay attention to and dedicate assets to the eastern Mediterranean or Baltics as part of a reassurance/deterrence exercise. All part of a flood the zone and keep them guessing tact that Russia engages in. It’s a probe of Britain’s capacity. 

Low cost to Russia since surface combatants and submarines are not significant to anything in Ukraine. 

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/29/boris-johnson-to-visit-ukraine-region-and-hold-call-with-putin-next-week

 

This is just stupid. Boris is completely flailing at home and can add absolutely zero value to inserting himself into an already tense situation.

 

After the past week where there are increased grumblings in certain quarters of Europe that the Anglosphere is exaggerating the threat - or at least fanning the flames in the media - it doesn't look good for a politician who is absolutely scorned across Western Europe - particularly in France and Germany - to come bouncing into an extremely volatile situation. The audacity and cynisim of doing this is remarkable. His entire party is turning on him over "partygate" (which is set to only get worse now that the official investigative report is coming out) and now he feels that his completely chaotic existence is going to help.

 

Macron, who seems to have actually had the most productive calls this week with Russia via his video call with Putin on Friday, has to be particularly miffed, given how terrible the French-British relationship is right now. Boris is also scheduled to have a direct call with Putin and the last thing anyone needs now is one more individual negotiating channel with him, particularly one run by Boris. 

Edited by Shady Ray
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7 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

After the past week where there are increased grumblings in certain quarters of Europe that the Anglosphere is exaggerating the threat - or at least fanning the flames in the media

You have that very sentiment coming out of the Ukraine.  You have Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky apparently telling the WH to dial down their rhetoric as it and the media is making this worse.  Then you have the Ukraine Prime Minister publicly stating that all the evacuations are premature.  This I get in the wake of Afghanistan and people left behind, but his point still stands.  

 

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If Russia attacks eastern Ukraine, does Ukraine have any ability to attack Russia in other methods?  As in destroying Russian Black Sea economic targets? Major powers can lulled into a sense of security that they can attack weaker countries but they don't expect to be attacked back.

The Doolittle Raid of Tokyo did very little to physically harm Japan in the early days of our WW2.  What it did do is show the Japanese citizens that the war could be brought to them as well. It also boosted the morale of Americans.

 

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20 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If Russia attacks eastern Ukraine, does Ukraine have any ability to attack Russia in other methods?  As in destroying Russian Black Sea economic targets? Major powers can lulled into a sense of security that they can attack weaker countries but they don't expect to be attacked back.

The Doolittle Raid of Tokyo did very little to physically harm Japan in the early days of our WW2.  What it did do is show the Japanese citizens that the war could be brought to them as well. It also boosted the morale of Americans.

 

No. Ukraine’s fleet has a single frigate and corvette, neither equipped to launch anything more than an anti-ship missile.  Ukraine scrapped the strategic bombers it had as part of post-cold war funding issues and arms control agreements.  All of its attack aircraft will be sorely needed to fend off any invasion and would be wasted by Russian air defenses. Ukraine does not have ballistic missiles. And even if they did— Russia has escalation dominance and Ukraine can only lose more by expanding the theater. Remember, the United States had escalation dominance over Japan and the point of Doolittle was to show “we can hit your home but you can’t hit ours.” Russia can hit every Ukrainian home. 

One of the reasons that Russian behavior here is so horrendous is because no European state did more to disarm than Ukraine due to financing but also in large part due to a desire to change the security architecture in Europe and halt potential arms races in their tracks.  It did so on the basis of assurances about Russian behavior. Russia helped disarm the state it’s now trying to swallow.

 

Edited by 956 Worldwide
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It is an interesting thought, Ukraine loading up its Su-25s or MiG29s for ground attack and sending them on a suicide run.  But it would be a suicide run with a low chance of causing any damage.  Y’all may remember that we pulled Turkey out of the F-35 program after they bought S400s.  That wasn’t just a temper fit. Modern anti-air systems are tightly networked, including with battlefield air asserts and “learn” how to counter them based off of the data they gather.  Integrating F-35s and S400 would end up creating data that other S400 operators (Russia) can use against them. 
 

Everything in Ukraine’s Air Force is an older, shittier version of what Russia flies.  It’s literally what their anti-air defense units train against. It would be a turkey shoot for them. 

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18 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

One of the reasons that Russian behavior here is so horrendous is because no European state did more to disarm than Ukraine due to financing but also in large part due to a desire to change the security architecture in Europe and halt potential arms races in their tracks.  It did so on the basis of assurances about Russian behavior. Russia helped disarm the state it’s now trying to swallow.

Putin and his leaders still hang to what they see as a broken promise decades back.  Namely, the statement from NATO (according to Putin) that they "would not move an inch to the East"

Full stop.

NATO Expansion

The US claims this was never on the table, Russia said it very much was. 

Then you have George Kennan, known from the Cold War as the "father" of the theory of containment with Soviet expansion who very clearly stated that any moves East would have grave, grave consequences and provoke an immediate and dire Soviet reaction.  We are seeing this play out in real time.  

There was a reason in the early 2000's both France and Germany opposed Bush's suggestions that Ukraine be made a part of NATO.  

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On 1/30/2022 at 1:37 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If Russia attacks eastern Ukraine, does Ukraine have any ability to attack Russia in other methods?  As in destroying Russian Black Sea economic targets? Major powers can lulled into a sense of security that they can attack weaker countries but they don't expect to be attacked back.

The Doolittle Raid of Tokyo did very little to physically harm Japan in the early days of our WW2.  What it did do is show the Japanese citizens that the war could be brought to them as well. It also boosted the morale of Americans.

 

They could unleash the mutants from underneath Chernobyl.

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5 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

They could unleash the mutants from underneath Chernobyl.

You laugh, but it's absolutely a suicide bomb that -- if I were Ukraine -- I would put into play.  Hell, I'd let the euros know that if the Russians are allowed to roll right in, one of my tools to deter them would be blowing the fuck out of the cap on Chernobyl.  Doing so will spread radiation into Russia.  And, sorry Germany and France, I guess some will get on you, but I'm sure you understand -- we gotta do what we gotta do, and once enemy troops are rolling through our territory, all means of defense are on the table.

What's that?  You DON'T want us blowing up a dirty bomb?   Huh.   Guess we have a mutual interest in heading off a Russian invasion, then.

Also, I'd communicate something similar to Russia -- you want some of this?  Enjoy.  Ukraine is a poison pill.

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You laugh, but it's absolutely a suicide bomb that -- if I were Ukraine -- I would put into play.  Hell, I'd let the euros know that if the Russians are allowed to roll right in, one of my tools to deter them would be blowing the fuck out of the cap on Chernobyl.  Doing so will spread radiation into Russia.  And, sorry Germany and France, I guess some will get on you, but I'm sure you understand -- we gotta do what we gotta do, and once enemy troops are rolling through our territory, all means of defense are on the table.

What's that?  You DON'T want us blowing up a dirty bomb?   Huh.   Guess we have a mutual interest in heading off a Russian invasion, then.

Also, I'd communicate something similar to Russia -- you want some of this?  Enjoy.  Ukraine is a poison pill.

Yeah--@Shady Ray says there's absolutely no talk of this in Germany, and I find that shocking (particularly given how absolutely phobic the German body politic has been about nuclear anything).  It distinctly seems to me that this threat is always implicit; it makes no sense to me that Ukraine would actually have to tell Scholz or anyone else that they have the world's largest dirty bomb.  But apparently, they do.

 

"Be careful, Oleg--some things in this country don't react too well to bullets."

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11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You laugh, but it's absolutely a suicide bomb that -- if I were Ukraine -- I would put into play.  Hell, I'd let the euros know that if the Russians are allowed to roll right in, one of my tools to deter them would be blowing the fuck out of the cap on Chernobyl. 

That might be kinda extreme.

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5 minutes ago, Parliament said:

That might be kinda extreme.

It's the functional equivalent of this:

2796badc-6dc7-4903-abaa-dd9885467516_scr

"I wouldn't dig in if I was you. Next one might be at your head. I don't know where it's gonna go. Swear to God."

Play the part of the crazy SOB, and play it up hard.  That play has its place.

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It's the functional equivalent of this:

2796badc-6dc7-4903-abaa-dd9885467516_scr

"I wouldn't dig in if I was you. Next one might be at your head. I don't know where it's gonna go. Swear to God."

Play the part of the crazy SOB, and play it up hard.  That play has its place.

North Korea has been doing it well for almost 70 years now. 

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32 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You laugh, but it's absolutely a suicide bomb that -- if I were Ukraine -- I would put into play.  Hell, I'd let the euros know that if the Russians are allowed to roll right in, one of my tools to deter them would be blowing the fuck out of the cap on Chernobyl.  Doing so will spread radiation into Russia.  And, sorry Germany and France, I guess some will get on you, but I'm sure you understand -- we gotta do what we gotta do, and once enemy troops are rolling through our territory, all means of defense are on the table.

What's that?  You DON'T want us blowing up a dirty bomb?   Huh.   Guess we have a mutual interest in heading off a Russian invasion, then.

Also, I'd communicate something similar to Russia -- you want some of this?  Enjoy.  Ukraine is a poison pill.

If there’s one thing the Russian government would never do, it’s something that would kill a bunch of Russians.

Wait….

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1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

If there’s one thing the Russian government would never do, it’s something that would kill a bunch of Russians.

Wait….

yeah.....that's why I think the play is a stronger one with the rest of Europe.  "Want to sit on the sidelines while we get fucked?  What if I tell you I'm gonna put your ass on the field of play whether you like it or not?"

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We have to take the Ukrainian government's word for it, but it's exactly in Russia's playbook.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-putin-news-01-31-2022/index.html

Quote

The Ukrainian interior ministry says the arrested leader of a group suspected of planning a violent protest in Kyiv has “strong links” to Russian-backed rebels in the breakaway east of the country.

Speaking to CNN, Ukraine’s First Deputy Interior Minister, Eugene Yenin, said the man had been a prominent fighter in the Vostok Battalion of rebels, formed to battle government forces in 2014.

Yenin told CNN three people – all Ukrainian citizens – had so far been arrested as part of what he described as a “plot to destabilize the country”.

He said that a search for evidence was now underway, as well as interrogations, to establish a firm Russian link to the plot. But he admitted that process may be hard as “President Putin doesn’t leave a business card,” he said.  

 

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Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to speak with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Tuesday, a State Department spokesperson confirmed.

“We expect the Secretary will have an opportunity to speak by phone with Foreign Minister Lavrov tomorrow morning,” the spokesperson said Monday.

Quote

US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said that the US did not hear an explanation for Russia’s military buildup along Ukraine’s borders at the UN meeting today, but said that Russia walks away having heard united support for Ukraine. 

UK doing stuff

Quote

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss announced in Parliament Monday that the government's “most far-reaching” sanctions regime against Russia will be in place by Feb. 10. 

“I will not say now exactly who we may target or with what measure but Moscow should be clear that we will use these new powers to maximum effect if they pursue their aggressive intent towards Ukraine,” she said, adding “Nothing is off the table." 
Quote

Russia intends to amass tens of thousands of troops near the Belarus-Ukraine border by early February, US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said Monday.

Speaking at a UN Security Council meeting, Thomas-Greenfield said the US has “seen evidence that Russia intends to expand that presence to more than 30,000 troops near the Belarus-Ukraine border, less than two hours north of Kyiv, by early February.” “Russia has also moved nearly 5,000 troops into Belarus, with short-range ballistic missiles, special forces, and anti-aircraft batteries,” she said. 

 

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https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/31/politics/us-russia-un-security-council-meeting/index.html

Quote

The United States has received a written response from Moscow after it sent its own written answers following face-to-face meetings on the ongoing Ukraine crisis, the latest development in the ongoing diplomatic campaign aimed at deterring a potential Russian invasion of the country.

Quote

"It would be unproductive to negotiate in public, so we'll leave it up to Russia if they want to discuss their response," the spokesperson said. "We remain fully committed to dialogue to address these issues and will continue to consult closely with our Allies and partners, including Ukraine."

Public reactions to those US written responses -- in which administration officials said the US voiced willingness to work with Russia on things like arms control but refused to give room on NATO's "open door" policy -- have been largely pessimistic.

Quote

It is unclear if Moscow's written response, first reportedby the Washington Post, was received before or after Monday's UN Security Council meeting over Moscow's escalation along the border with Ukraine, which ended in a standoff between the US and Russia.

Quote

US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield told reporters following the session, in which the US accused Russia of planning to mass tens of thousands of troops along the Belarus-Ukraine border, that the US "called for this meeting to allow the Russians to give us an explanation of what their actions are."

"We didn't hear much," she said. "They didn't give us the answers that any of us would have hoped that they would provide."

 

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"This deployment of Russian troops in our own territory is getting our Western and US colleagues to say that there's going to be a planned military action and even an act of aggression ... the military action of Russia against Ukraine that they're all assuring us is going to take place in just a few weeks' time if not a few days' time. There, however, is no proof confirming such a serious accusation whatsoever being put forward," he said in translated remarks at the meeting.

"You are almost calling for this, you want it to happen. You're waiting for it to happen, as if you want to make your words become a reality. This is despite the fact that we are constantly rejecting these allegations and this is despite the fact that no threat of a planned invasion into Ukraine from the lips of any Russian politician or public figure over all of this period has been made," Nebenzia said.

LOL.  You don't move bridging units, heavy artillery, medical units, blood supplies, etc. to an area without plans to do something with them.

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10 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

So what would de-escalate things from our side? Specific assurances that Ukraine is not joining NATO?

Let's ask Neville Chamberlain how one deescalates a conflict with an authoritarian despotic leader that wants "living space for his people". I don't think there's a way for russia to back down barring some game-changing an unpredictable development.

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1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

So what would de-escalate things from our side? Specific assurances that Ukraine is not joining NATO?

Captainant touched on it, but yeah, Russia wants assurances that we will do nothing while they carve up another sovereign nation.   Russia is not afraid of NATO as they have thousands of nukes.  They want the ability to fuck with their neighbors as they please, because they still see those countries as their property and it's their right to fuck with them.

1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

It just seems so counterproductive for our country to get involved in conflict direct or indirect with Russia in Eastern Europe. We’ve avoided it multiple times before. What is different this time?

Because this is their biggest and boldest action yet and they won't stop with Ukraine if nobody steps up?

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"mix-up"

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/01/europe/ukraine-russia-news-tuesday-intl/index.html

Quote

The Kremlin said Tuesday that there had been a "mix-up" over its reply to the United States on the Ukraine crisis, as diplomatic efforts to deter a Russian invasion picked up pace. 

State Department officials confirmed Monday they had "received a written followup from Russia" to a document of proposals the US sent to the Kremlin last week on how to defuse tensions and pave the way for further security talks in response to Russia's demands on security .

Quote

On Tuesday, however, the Kremlin said that Russia had not yet sent its "main reply" to the US. "There was a mix-up," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in a conference call. "It [the Russian correspondence] regarded a different matter. The main reply on this issue hasn't been handed over, it's still being prepared."

The world might yet get a rare glimpse of Vladimir Putin's thinking on the tensions later on Tuesday. The Russian President is expected to make an appearance in front of the press in Moscow after meeting the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

On Tuesday, however, the Kremlin said that Russia had not yet sent its "main reply" to the US. "There was a mix-up," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in a conference call. "It [the Russian correspondence] regarded a different matter. The main reply on this issue hasn't been handed over, it's still being prepared."

This is just like that episode of Three's Company?  You know, the one where there was some sort of mix-up/misunderstanding?  Man, that one was HILARIOUS.

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14 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

LOL.  You don't move bridging units, heavy artillery, medical units, blood supplies, etc. to an area without plans to do something with them.

You may be right that Russia intends 100% to invade Ukraine but you can mobilize any resource to further a diplomatic compromise as well.

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3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

You may be right that Russia intends 100% to invade Ukraine but you can mobilize any resource to further a diplomatic compromise as well.

So then the Russian intent would be to intimidate Ukraine and the West into complying, under threat of war.  Should the response be any different just in case they really don't mean it and are just trying to appear like they're about to invade?  

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This is just like that episode of Three's Company?  You know, the one where there was some sort of mix-up/misunderstanding?  Man, that one was HILARIOUS.

Come and knock on our door
We've been waiting for you

 

 

Down at our rendez-vous...

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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

reminds me of this scene from Thirteen Days.

		BOBBY
		Making the second letter and the overall
		picture look worse than it really is.

				SORENSEN
		The Guns of August.

				KENNY
		Exactly.
			(beat)
		If they're sane and human like we are,
		then maybe we just refuse, and they'll
		let it slide, like we've been letting
		things slide.

				SORENSEN
		So we reject the second letter.

	And Kenny looks at Bobby.  The world stops.

				KENNY
		No.  We don't reject it...

	It hits Bobby like a lightning bolt.

				BOBBY
		... We accept the first letter and
		pretend the second doesn't exist.

	The President, Rusk and Sorensen stare at him, mute.
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17 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

reminds me of this scene from Thirteen Days.

		BOBBY
		Making the second letter and the overall
		picture look worse than it really is.

				SORENSEN
		The Guns of August.

				KENNY
		Exactly.
			(beat)
		If they're sane and human like we are,
		then maybe we just refuse, and they'll
		let it slide, like we've been letting
		things slide.

				SORENSEN
		So we reject the second letter.

	And Kenny looks at Bobby.  The world stops.

				KENNY
		No.  We don't reject it...

	It hits Bobby like a lightning bolt.

				BOBBY
		... We accept the first letter and
		pretend the second doesn't exist.

	The President, Rusk and Sorensen stare at him, mute.

I love that movie

 

 

JOHN PAUL JONES!?!?!?

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9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Is somebody worried about truck bombs?

I don’t have time to verify if this site is legit. It looks like it. Supposedly it’s to keep fertilizers prices down domestically to try to address inflation.  They typically export half their production, mostly to Europe evidently. 
 

https://agfax.com/2022/01/28/fertilizer-russia-ukraine-conflict-could-cause-supply-price-issues-dtn/

 

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Quote

 

Despite a big backlash, Brussels labels gas and nuclear as sustainable 

Ignoring the furious backlash and accusations of greenwashing, the European Commission has decided to move forward with its highly controversial plans to label gas and nuclear activities as sustainable, hoping the two sectors can help the bloc meet its ambitious roadmap to climate neutrality.

The move has been under discussion for months and has been delayed several times due to deep-seated disagreements between EU countries, which have sent public letters and statements to make their cases. Brussels circulated a draft document on New Year's Eve, a highly unusual date that reflects the explosive nature of the matter.

Following the feedback from governments, MEPs and expert groups – which featured "many diverging views", according to EU officials – the Commission has taken the official step of proposing a green label for gas and nuclear energy.

As a result, the two sectors will be included in the EU taxonomy, a technical rulebook that allows private and public investors to make informed choices about climate-conscious investments.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/02/despite-a-big-backlash-brussels-labels-gas-and-nuclear-as-sustainable

 

German Greens gonna have a conniption over this, but this is the way...

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