Jump to content

Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

Recommended Posts

The highly influential French diplomat Hubert Védrine (Former Chief Foreign Policy Advisor and Chief of Staff to François Mitterrand/ ex French Foreign Minister/ regular Macron foreign policy advisor) gave an interview to Le Journal du Dimanche that came out this morning.
 

He indeed seems to be setting a very different narrative for French audience consumption leading up this week’s diplomatic activities, and this should be seen as coming from someone very close to Macron, so it is more significant than some washed up diplomat.

 

If this captures Macron's thinking, then it is definitely going to ruffle some feathers in the US. Védrine talks about how the strategic value of Ukraine to the Alliance/Finlandization should not be a taboo subject, talks about how this is not just about Ukraine but that the whole of European security should be up for discussion (the US has tried to focus the discussion on the Ukraine issue), and criticizes the American reliance on sanctions, specifically calling out the "sanctions industry" in the US as being "the worst of American policy".

 

Full article machine translated and pasted below, as it is behind a hard paywall.

 

https://www.lejdd.fr/International/hubert-vedrine-au-jdd-le-statut-strategique-de-lukraine-ne-peut-pas-etre-tabou-4092063

 

Quote

Hubert Védrine to the JDD: "The strategic status of Ukraine cannot be taboo"
11:36 p.m., February 5, 2022
Hubert Védrine, who was the head of French diplomacy during the Kosovo war, supports President Macron's approach but on condition that it leads to a lasting dialogue with Russia.
 

Former diplomatic adviser then secretary general of the Elysée under the Mitterrand presidency before taking the reins of the Quai d'Orsay between 1997 and 2002, Hubert Védrine was appointed in 2020 by Emmanuel Macron within the Commission charged by NATO with think about strengthening it. The Summit of Heads of State of the Atlantic Alliance will be held in Madrid at the end of June.
 

Do you think President Macron's trip to Moscow and Kiev could be useful?

Yes, I don't know what Vladimir Putin has in mind and no one knows, but you had to start by being very firm, even threatening, to be a deterrent. There is therefore no need to oppose firmness and dialogue, quite the contrary. I think President Macron is right to attempt this discussion, which is both centered on the question of Ukraine and extended to security conditions in Europe. It is also not contradictory, I think, with what Joe Biden would like to do with Russia and it does not seem to me to be divergent from the German Chancellor's approach either. It is obviously very difficult. If there was an easy solution between Americans, Europeans and Russians, we would have already found it. I don't know how this French attempt will turn out, but you have to try it.
 

In Kiev, is it so essential to present a united front of Europeans in solidarity with Ukraine?

This is obviously better, but the most important thing is to re-engage with Russia in a "muscular" dialogue of the type that the Americans had with the Soviets during the Cold War at times when the USSR was much more threatening. Even after the Berlin blockade or the Cuban crisis! What is happening now goes beyond Ukraine alone. I regret that the West, through simple and arrogant Manichaeism, completely abandoned this need for strategic dialogue with Russia, because it thought it had triumphed. It is therefore essential to return to a more realistic approach to the Russian question by learning the lessons of this past: the West won the Cold War! It never weakened by arguing. Now, it is obviously preferable that in threat and deterrence, then in de-escalation and return to dialogue, Westerners are united or at least converge.


But in this dialogue, if it resumes, is the subject of the "Finlandization" of Ukraine taboo?

No one will write in black on white that this country will never be able to join NATO. A serious and democratic alliance will never accept that an external and threatening power exercises a right of veto. Putin knows this well. But Ukraine's strategic status cannot be a taboo issue either. During the Cold War, there was no taboo subject and the unacceptable demands of the USSR never prevented discussion and negotiation. Otherwise, why did someone as prestigious as Henry Kissinger, two months ago, speak again of a "Finlandization" of Ukraine? And why Zbigniew Brzezinski, another great national security adviser of the United States, Polish, very anti-Russian, criticized very severely, in the last years of his life, the threat of Ukraine's entry into NATO because that this would inevitably lead, in his view, to a Russian backlash? He too proposed a guaranteed neutrality status.
 

Does the same apply to the second Russian demand concerning the cessation of NATO military activities in the other countries bordering Russia?

Everything must be able to be discussed. Joe Biden has been associated, in all stages of his life as a senator, with all the major East-West negotiations. He knows how it worked, that there have always been compromises and that the West has won. Biden is therefore not afraid to talk to the Russians. After acknowledging on television that Putin was an "assassin", that did not prevent him from meeting him in Geneva three months later. The Russians want to talk today about limiting the military activities of NATO in the countries of its former zone of influence. But in the major disarmament negotiations of the 1970s and 1980s, there was talk of limiting and then reducing strategic armaments and even withdrawing intermediate nuclear weapons. We should therefore feel confident enough to drag Putin from unacceptable demands to very tough negotiating grounds that offer a way out. This is what Emmanuel Macron is trying with the acquiescence of Scholz, without the Ukrainians finding fault with it and without contradicting with Biden.
 

There is no need to oppose firmness and dialogue, quite the contrary.
 

Should NATO's new strategic concept being discussed before the Madrid summit in June take this current crisis into account for some of its parameters to be modified?

Honestly, I don't really know where we are anymore. This crisis has allowed NATO to perk up, but at the same time, it is not up to NATO to take disarmament measures. We can not blame it since it is a military alliance above all. But NATO will eventually follow and adapt to what will have been decided between Western and Russian leaders.
 

Could we also put back into the discussion, in your opinion, the abandonment of the sanctions taken against Russia after the annexation of Crimea, in the event that this crisis is resolved peacefully?

That's a good question, but it's premature. Personally, I am very opposed to the policies of sanctions and I am sorry to see that Europe has found nothing smarter than to copy the worst of American policy: its claim to sanction the world whole. In the post-Crimean situation, as the Europeans have no foreign policy but only "positions", as if they were in trenches, they are unable to move once a decision has been made not to to deviate from their electorates. We will therefore have to address this real question, but not immediately, not while we are in this phase of deterrence and de-escalation. But if one day Poland is reassured about its fate and France and Germany play well together against Russia, perhaps Biden will end up bringing the subject of sanctions to the fore. Provided that he has room, because there is still a gigantic sanction industry in the United States and a huge Polish lobby.


Beyond security and strategy, should the dialogue with Moscow, if the situation calms down, not be more sustained and extended to many other sectors in order to create a new "détente"?

Here too, it is desirable but a little premature. First, deterrence must play its role, during and after the de-escalation and even when the negotiation on security in Europe restarts. But it's true that we should never have stopped discussing with the Russians, especially in the areas that had been defined during the first meeting between Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin in Versailles in 2017. I am obviously thinking of the world of arts and culture so that it reaches at least the same level as space cooperation, which works remarkably well today. But, I insist, this should not replace a policy of firmness.
 

Do you believe that in the absence of such a policy of dialogue, Russia will end up getting too close to China, as we can see through the communiqué issued by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday?


This is one of the risks of a too Manichean and short-sighted Western policy and I am not even sure that this is what Putin wants. There is still a fear of China in Russia, with barely 20 million inhabitants between the Urals and Vladivostok. Perhaps Putin is playing this relationship with China in a calculated way. Just as he seeks through his current provocations to impose himself on Biden as an interlocutor. But the Russian elites must not be happy with this shift towards China. We must take this reluctance into account, which gives us leverage, but it must be integrated into an overall strategy. There is nothing relating to Munich in thinking that. It's just strategic.
 

https://www.lejdd.fr/International/hubert-vedrine-au-jdd-le-statut-strategique-de-lukraine-ne-peut-pas-etre-tabou-4092063

 

 

 

Edited by Shady Ray
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

And, with Whisperin' Olaf Scholz on his way to the US to meet with Biden this week, he gives a final interview with German state media, ARD, where he is asked about NS2. Early last week Jake Sullivan said that NS2 “would not be going forward” if Russia attacks Ukraine. That would be a huge development here, and to date it was simply treated as an throw-away statement coming out of the US and has not been confirmed by one single member of the Govt. They have been asked about it multiple times, to which they dutifully answer the way they have for months: “As always, all options are on the table", but none of them have been willing to confirm or to commit to what Sullivan said, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out tomorrow in DC, as Olaf is certainly going to be pressed on it.
 

I can tell you that the phrasing that he uses in German in his answer is an exercise in significant wordsmithing: “Wir haben sehr konkrete Vorbereitungen mit unseren Verbündeten in der EU, mit den USA sind wir im engsten Gespräch über die möglichen Sanktionen, die wir ergreifen können.” This translates roughly to “We have very concrete preparations with our allies in the EU, and we are in close conversations with the USA about possible sanctions that we can take.” The way this is phrased in German is “yeah, we have prepared with our allies in the EU, and we are talking with the Americans about what we can do.” He then goes on to specifically say, “we have agreed that we WILL decide together when the time is right”. Very, very noncommittal language here that indicates that nothing has been agreed to date. 

 

He also announced that he is going to Moscow next Monday, as well as Kiev. 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-travel-kyiv-february-14-moscow/

 

https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/vor-seiner-usa-reise-interview-gipfel-mit-dem-kanzler-ein-wort-meidet-scholz-wie-der-teufel-das-weihwasser_id_49619911.html

 

Quote

Before his trip to the USA, an Interview Summit with the Chancellor: He Avoids One Word like the Devil Avoids Holy Water
Sunday, 02/06/22, 5:19 PM


Olaf Scholz answered the questions of ARD presenter Tina Hassel shortly before his first trip to the USA on Sunday afternoon. Also this time regarding the topic of the Russian-European gas pipeline, Nord Stream 2. Hassel asked very clearly about this. But Scholz swam around it as he does so often.



We are doing a little experiment, dear readers. You can now carefully read these two interview questions from the "Report from Berlin" and the corresponding answers from Chancellor Olaf Scholz. And pay attention to which word does not appear in his answers. Ready? Then let's go.
 

Hassel interviews Scholz about Nord Stream 2
 

Tina Hassel (ARD): "Of course, you will also be asked about Nord Stream 2 in Washington. You have always given the same answer to the question so far; 'everything is on the table'. That's why I deliberately ask the other way around: Why don't you use Nord Stream 2 as a political lever and set conditions for it to be put into operation at all, for example a withdrawal of this Russian, massive troop presence on the Ukrainian border."

 

Olaf Scholz: "We have very concrete preparations with our allies in the EU, and we are in close conversations with the USA about the possible sanctions that we can take. These will be very far-reaching, very harsh sanctions, if necessary. Although our whole effort is currently aimed at preventing sanctions from becoming necessary and using them."
 

Hassel: "But you don't want to use Nord Stream 2 as a means of pressure for conditions!"
 

Scholz: "They will have high costs, and that's why we looked at all these measures individually. And there is nothing that is ruled out. You know that very well. And of course Russia also knows that they can so imagine what it could all be, but that it may be much more. And therein, of course, lies a strength of the Western response to this question, that we, first of all, will act in a completely unified way, that we have agreed to decide together, at the right time, and not everybody thinks blob by blob, because they just have to present something at home, in their parliament. It is a matter of agreed policy among allies in NATO. It is about agreed policy with our friends in the USA. And it's about agreed policy in the EU."
 

"Nord Stream 2": Scholz Doesn’t Mention That

You may have noticed. In his answer, Scholz avoids the word "Nord Stream 2" like the devil avoids holy water. Although the moderator explicitly asks for it, the Chancellor does not pass the word over his lips.
 

Scholz's relationship with Nord Stream 2 is, of course, not very popular in the Western Alliance at the moment. As recently as December, he called the project "purely privately economic" and "very apolitical". Two weeks ago, he then slightly changed the tone and no longer ruled out that Nord Stream 2 could be part of possible sanctions. But even then, he avoided clear language. Just like he does now on ARD.
 

USA increases the pressure on Scholz - what will he say?
 

Now Scholz is going on his inaugural trip to the USA. The hosts are once again increasing the pressure on Scholz. Shortly before his trip, President Biden's National Security Advisor said: "If Russia invades Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 will not continue." When asked whether Chancellor Olaf Scholz will publicly assure such a measure during his inaugural visit to Washington on Monday, Sullivan said: "I will let the German Chancellor speak for himself."
 

It will be interesting to see if a clearer commitment for or against the project will come over his lips there.

 

 

Finally, German Minister of Defense doubles down once again saying no weapons to Ukraine, but that they will consider sending additional troops to Lithuania.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-considers-bolstered-troop-presence-in-lithuania/a-60676609

Edited by Shady Ray
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/4/2022 at 4:27 PM, atomheartbevo said:

The reporter is asking them to all but name their intelligence sources and when and where they gathered this intelligence.  I'm not saying the reporter is trying to help the Russians root out Western intelligence operations, but the answers to what he wants would help the Russians root out Western intelligence operations.

On the surface, it may seem reasonable - given our track record with our own beating of the war drums, but we aren't the ones rushing into war - Putin decided he wants to fuck around, and he presents a list of demands that are unreasonable.

And it's not unreasonable to push back on the reporter over this - the Russians were releasing ginned-up propaganda to justify the invasion/occupation of Crimea.

image.thumb.png.c4249a0c4a4374bad62baad5db977d8b.png
 

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Haha 2
  • Fuck You 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/4/2022 at 8:18 PM, bolverk said:

Correct. We'd be giving up on the Western ideal of self-determination by a sovereign nation; Ukraine isn't allowed to decide for itself with whom it can associate.

"Sorry, Ukraine, your asshole big brother says you can't hang out at our lunch table no matter how much you'd like. We've got each others' backs over here, and we'd normally be cool with it but don't want to deal with the hassle of hurting your dickhead brother's feelings because you're too poor and unimportant. If his insecure ass says you can't, then we're just going to call him a cocksucker and let it be."

"Eat your spinach, get your shit together, and maybe you'll be strong enough someday. In the meantime, we're just going to do some flexing over here to make sure he only fucks with you and not us. By the way, here's a spoon or two you can use to defend yourself if he decides to wail on you for even thinking about leaving your abusive and dysfunctional family. We're rooting for you."

That's essentially what's going on.

Because that strategy has worked so well in the past

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting read (site translated into English) 

 

Quote

Address of the All-Russian Officers' Assembly to the President and citizens of the Russian Federation - 31 January 2022

h-3582.jpgh-4256.jpg

The Chairman of the "All-Russian Officers' Assembly" Colonel-General Ivashov Leonid Grigoryevich wrote an Appeal to the President and citizens of the Russian Federation "Eve of War" :

Address of the All-Russian Officers' Assembly

to the President and citizens of the Russian Federation

Today humanity lives in anticipation of war. And war is the inevitable loss of life, destruction, suffering of large masses of people, the destruction of the usual way of life, the violation of the vital systems of states and peoples. A big war is a huge tragedy, someone's serious crime. It so happened that Russia was at the center of this impending catastrophe. And, perhaps, this is the first time in its history. 

Previously, Russia (USSR) waged forced (just) wars, and, as a rule, when there was no other way out, when the vital interests of the state and society were threatened.

And what threatens the existence of Russia itself today, and are there such threats? It can be argued that there is indeed a threat - the country is on the verge of completing its history. All vital areas, including demography, are steadily degrading, and the rate of population extinction is breaking world records. And degradation is systemic in nature, and in any complex system, the destruction of one of the elements can lead to the collapse of the entire system.

And this, in our opinion, is the main threat to the Russian Federation. But this is a threat of an internal nature, emanating from the model of the state, the quality of power and the state of society. And the reasons for its formation are internal: the unviability of the state model, the complete incapacity and lack of professionalism of the system of power and administration, the passivity and disorganization of society. In this state, any country does not live long.

As for external threats, they are certainly present. But, according to our expert assessment, they are not currently critical, directly threatening the existence of Russian statehood, its vital interests. On the whole, strategic stability is maintained, nuclear weapons are under reliable control, NATO forces are not building up, and they are not showing threatening activity.

Therefore, the situation that is being whipped up around Ukraine is, first of all, artificial, mercenary in nature for some internal forces, including the Russian Federation. As a result of the collapse of the USSR, in which Russia (Yeltsin) took a decisive part, Ukraine became an independent state, a member of the UN, and in accordance with Art. 51 of the UN Charter has the right to individual and collective defence.

The leadership of the Russian Federation has not yet recognized the results of the referendum on the independence of the DPR and LPR, while at the official level more than once, including during the Minsk negotiation process, emphasized the belonging of their territories and population to Ukraine.

It has also been said more than once at a high level about the desire to maintain normal relations with Kiev, without singling out special relations with the DPR and LPR.

The issue of the genocide perpetrated by Kiev in the southeastern regions was not raised either in the UN or in the OSCE. Naturally, in order for Ukraine to remain a friendly neighbor for Russia, it was necessary for it to demonstrate the attractiveness of the Russian model of the state and the system of power.

But the Russian Federation did not become one, its development model and foreign policy mechanism of international cooperation repel almost all neighbors, and not only.

The acquisition of Crimea and Sevastopol by Russia and their non-recognition as Russian by the international community (and, therefore, the overwhelming number of states in the world still consider them to belong to Ukraine) convincingly shows the failure of Russian foreign policy, and the unattractiveness of domestic.

Attempts to “love” the Russian Federation and its leadership through an ultimatum and threats of the use of force are senseless and extremely dangerous.

The use of military force against Ukraine, firstly, will call into question the existence of Russia itself as a state; secondly, it will forever make Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies. Thirdly, there will be thousands (tens of thousands) of dead young, healthy guys on one side and on the other, which will certainly affect the future demographic situation in our dying countries. On the battlefield, if this happens, Russian troops will face not only Ukrainian military personnel, among whom there will be many Russian guys, but also military personnel and equipment from many NATO countries, and the member states of the alliance will be obliged to declare war on Russia.

President of the Republic of Turkey R. Erdogan clearly stated which side Turkey would fight on. And it can be assumed that two Turkish field armies and a fleet will be ordered to "liberate" the Crimea and Sevastopol and possibly invade the Caucasus.  

In addition, Russia will definitely be included in the category of countries that threaten peace and international security, will be subject to the heaviest sanctions, will turn into a pariah of the world community, and will probably be deprived of the status of an independent state.

The president and the government, the Ministry of Defense cannot fail to understand such consequences, they are not so stupid.  

The question arises: what are the true goals of provoking tension on the brink of war, and the possible unleashing of large-scale hostilities? And that there will be, says the number and combat composition of the groupings of troops formed by the parties - no less than one hundred thousand servicemen from each side. Russia, exposing the eastern borders, is transferring formations to the borders of Ukraine.

In our opinion, the country's leadership, realizing that it is not capable of leading the country out of the systemic crisis, and this can lead to an uprising of the people and a change of power in the country, with the support of the oligarchy, corrupt officials, lured media and security forces, decided to activate the political line for the final destruction Russian statehood and the extermination of the indigenous population of the country.  

And war is the means that will solve this problem in order to retain its anti-national power for a while and preserve the wealth stolen from the people. We cannot suggest any other explanation.      

From the President of the Russian Federation, we are officers of Russia, we demand to abandon the criminal policy of provoking a war in which the Russian Federation will find itself alone against the united forces of the West, to create conditions for the implementation of Art. 3 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation and resign.

We appeal to all retired and retired military personnel, citizens of Russia with a recommendation to be vigilant, organized, support the demands of the Council of the All-Russian Officers' Assembly, actively oppose propaganda and unleashing a war, and prevent an internal civil conflict with the use of military force.

Chairman of the All-Russian Officers' Assembly                                                                                                                     Colonel-General Ivashov L.G.

 

 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/5/2022 at 2:33 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Not everyone is overlooking it. Work with a group that handles refugee issues across the Med. They are pivoting resources to focus on Eastern Europe right now. Companies are starting to move people out. They have identified locations across the region to build quick camps. Have a call on Monday with their team lead. They are quite nervous and for some reason think the 10th is the day. 

I was in Bosnia (1995-1998) and yeah, it was bad. Worse crisis I saw concerning refugees was when Austria decided to send them all back in 1996 and there was no where to put them in the country. It was a major issue. Was back in Germany in 2008 and the hotel we were in was still staffed by Bosnians. Damn I would kick an aggy for some slivovic right now.

I would kick an aggy for a glass of water 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

And, with Whisperin' Olaf Scholz on his way to the US to meet with Biden this week, he gives a final interview with German state media, ARD, where he is asked about NS2. Early last week Jake Sullivan said that NS2 “would not be going forward” if Russia attacks Ukraine. That would be a huge development here, and to date it was simply treated as an throw-away statement coming out of the US and has not been confirmed by one single member of the Govt. They have been asked about it multiple times, to which they dutifully answer the way they have for months: “As always, all options are on the table", but none of them have been willing to confirm or to commit to what Sullivan said, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out tomorrow in DC, as Olaf is certainly going to be pressed on it.
 

I can tell you that the phrasing that he uses in German in his answer is an exercise in significant wordsmithing: “Wir haben sehr konkrete Vorbereitungen mit unseren Verbündeten in der EU, mit den USA sind wir im engsten Gespräch über die möglichen Sanktionen, die wir ergreifen können.” This translates roughly to “We have very concrete preparations with our allies in the EU, and we are in close conversations with the USA about possible sanctions that we can take.” The way this is phrased in German is “yeah, we have prepared with our allies in the EU, and we are talking with the Americans about what we can do.” He then goes on to specifically say, “we have agreed that we WILL decide together when the time is right”. Very, very noncommittal language here that indicates that nothing has been agreed to date. 

 

He also announced that he is going to Moscow next Monday, as well as Kiev. 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/olaf-scholz-travel-kyiv-february-14-moscow/

 

https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/vor-seiner-usa-reise-interview-gipfel-mit-dem-kanzler-ein-wort-meidet-scholz-wie-der-teufel-das-weihwasser_id_49619911.html

 

 

Finally, German Minister of Defense doubles down once again saying no weapons to Ukraine, but that they will consider sending additional troops to Lithuania.

 

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-considers-bolstered-troop-presence-in-lithuania/a-60676609

So still the status quo. We’re waiting on Putin to make his move one way or another and we’ll react to it. A big wildcard to me is how relationship with Germany evolves through this. 

Edited by Immaculate Vibes
  • Fuck You 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/5/2022 at 5:36 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don’t understand the comparison that some reporter makes between Alex Jones and the State dept.  I don’t recall Alex Jones breaking the story of an upcoming false flag operation with a school shooting. He finds real events and then stirs up the conspiracy crowd to sell products. Both use the same terms but in different context.

it’s possible that the govt is releasing questionable evidence or even conjecture with the false flag ops stories about Russia. But it’s in support to predict how Putin could attempt to sell an invasion to the world. He would look foolish even to his own citizens if he uses the same playbook that the US announces a week earlier.

Jones has his listeners continuously expecting false flag attacks and Jones insinuates than any and all terrorist events that implicate his side or him personally were one of those attacks he predicted. Seriously, he predicts that one will be "coming soon" about once every two weeks, like clockwork. When there is an attack, he finds ways to spin it as false flag and thereby adds more paranoia for the next one. No right-wing terrorist attack is genuine, ever, his audience believes. Just like the larger GOP has made evil and hard times synonymous with the Democratic party. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Russia still pushing that it was just war games with Belarus, but mysteriously they have a bunch of those troops slotted for war games in other areas well away from the war games.

Kind of like if aggy was scheduled to play football against LSU at LSU, but they are at a basketball court up in Oklahoma, and they are scrimmaging against players dressed in red and white.  Sure, both are sports, and technically they are still in The South, but you know.

Oh, and they've really upped the propaganda within Russia.  So the Ukrainians have that going for them.

Edited by atomheartbevo
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Putin is going to load the border up with troops to the point of no return.

He’s moving a damned tank division from Moscow apparently.


The west isn’t matching his forces at all, and at some point he’s going make a move, and there won’t be shit we can do but lie back, and take it. Unless there’s some political angle he has or something he wants that the west finally caves in to that causes him to pull back. Ukraine is looking like it’s going to be a battlefield.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Putin is going to load the border up with troops to the point of no return.
He’s moving a damned tank division from Moscow apparently.

The west isn’t matching his forces at all, and at some point he’s going make a move, and there won’t be shit we can do but lie back, and take it. Unless there’s some political angle he has or something he wants that the west finally caves in to that causes him to pull back. Ukraine is looking like it’s going to be a battlefield.
 
A news article I saw today said the German PM along with Biden would shut down Nord Stream 2 if Russia invaded. Whether that will stop Putin remains to be seen.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Orale said:

A news article I saw today said the German PM along with Biden would shut down Nord Stream 2 if Russia invaded. Whether that will stop Putin remains to be seen.

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, I've seen lots of these articles. I wonder if economic sanctions keeps him from invading. It would be great if that stopped him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Yeah, I've seen lots of these articles. I wonder if economic sanctions keeps him from invading. It would be great if that stopped him.

Considering that China just made a big deal to buy Russian gas, I'm thinking Western sanctions regarding NS2 would hurt Russia less now

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Considering that China just made a big deal to buy Russian gas, I'm thinking Western sanctions regarding NS2 would hurt Russia less now

China-Russia and other non-democratic governments have been backing each other for some time now, to lessen the blow of sanctions. It's like the anti-NATO.

Edited by pacman
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, pacman said:

China-Russia and other non-democratic governments have been backing each other for some time now, to lessen the blow of sanctions. It's like the anti-NATO.

New bosses are the same as the old bosses, nothing changes.  They're just better connected, and have more subtle tricks at their disposal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/6/2022 at 2:28 PM, 956 Worldwide said:

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-vows-for-de-escalation-and-dialogue-ahead-of-russian-trip-putin-ukraine/
 

It sure looks like Macron is getting out over his skis here.  It is almost always a mistake to promise breakthroughs with Putin ahead of time, he takes almost a perverse glee in humiliating leaders who come to court him. The skeptic in me says that he is going to accept almost anything Putin offers, knowing full well it won’t be accepted either across the EU or within NATO— and then it provides France and Germany an out to blame obstreperous Eastern Europe and America who won’t take a deal.

I think it’s a strategic error to use this to try and advance the common EU foreign policy cause and federalization. The states he’s likely to piss off the most also happen to be home to the most EU skeptic populations and leaders.  

So, revisiting this after it happened.  I am posting three different English language articles with a readout of the meeting.  By far the most friendly is the France 24 summary, Politico.eu dogpiles onto Macron, and The Guardian is somewhere in the middle trending more to the "Politico" take.  I think it's pretty relevant that France 24 left out the part where Putin threatened a French journalist with war--reminding him that Russia was a nuclear superpower and that France could be dragged into war "against your will." A few atmospherics (remember I said that Putin delights in humiliating leaders) that I haven't found in English sources but that are in reputable European outlets: 

- Macron's plane arrived about 45 minutes later than scheduled and the Russians put on no official greeting.  There wasn't even a car to take him to the terminal so he had to walk.

- Throughout the meeting and in the press conference, Putin used the informal version of "you."  This is a delicate balancing act in Russian-- it can demonstrate either warmness and familiarity or it can demonstrate a lack of respect.  He used the informal form with Merkel a lot--- with Macron, it's difficult to believe that he chose it to demonstrate warmth.  His choice of pronoun was noted in the Russian and Slavic-language press, I haven't seen it in English language or English-language French press. 

- At one point Putin said that Macron was "tormenting him" by talking too much. 

I will let @ShadyRay analyze the Germany-Washington talks.  With Macron, I will expect the friendly French press to seize on the few glimmers and praise the promise of more dialogue.  Rationally-- it's hard to see this as anything other than Macron getting roundly whipped by a far more formidable interlocutor on his home turf.  In the Slavic-language extremist/pro-Kremlin/disinformation press the meeting is being spun as a huge victory for Putin and Macron is framed as having caved to a more righteous, stronger opponent.  

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220208-putin-says-ready-for-compromise-with-west-after-talks-with-macron-on-ukraine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/07/macron-warns-dont-expect-miracles-in-talks-with-putin-over-ukraine

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-welcomes-emmanuel-macron-france-into-his-lair-kremlin-ukraine/

 

 

 

Edited by 956 Worldwide
  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Homercles said:

I feel like one measly rep isn’t enough here to show my appreciation for Shady, 956 and a few others who legit rain down nuanced, local and applicable knowledge on the rest of us here.  This is fascinating stuff and I hugely appreciate the time you guys take to write article-quality analysis, careful to separate what you know as fact from your personal anecdotes. 
 

On a side note it also helps me explain why this is my ‘home’ on the Internet despite me being a Poke, and needle my wife who thinks it’s all Dickbutt and football.  InstaFaceTok has nothing on this place. 

What he said.  

 

And don't let her think anything else.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Homercles said:

On a side note it also helps me explain why this is my ‘home’ on the Internet despite me being a Poke, and needle my wife who thinks it’s all Dickbutt and football.  InstaFaceTok has nothing on this place. 

We're simply the best.  Better than all the rest.

  • Hook 'Em 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Homercles said:

I feel like one measly rep isn’t enough here to show my appreciation for Shady, 956 and a few others who legit rain down nuanced, local and applicable knowledge on the rest of us here.  This is fascinating stuff and I hugely appreciate the time you guys take to write article-quality analysis, careful to separate what you know as fact from your personal anecdotes. 
 

On a side note it also helps me explain why this is my ‘home’ on the Internet despite me being a Poke, and needle my wife who thinks it’s all Dickbutt and football.  InstaFaceTok has nothing on this place. 

To be fair, this place is about 97.2% dickbutt.  But the remainder is pure gold, Jerry.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

So President Biden has drawn a line in the sand re: NS2.  If Russia invades, the pipeline is off.  My question is this: Does the US have the juice to shut it down?  How can we influence a pipeline halfway around the World?

This is the ultimate question. The German speaking reporter from Reuters followed up with Biden after he said "If Russian tanks cross the border, there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it" by asking him, "but how will you do this since this is a German project under German control?" to which he said "I promise you we will be able to do that."

 

And he may be correct...sanctions from the US are certainly powerful deterrents. But how will that play here? My guess is not very well.

 

If the US starts to sanction German companies associated with NS2, who have invested billions in German infrastructure, to benefit German companies and German taxpayers, it is going to be politically very difficult for German citizens to support German politicians who fail to take an active, hostile position to the US. Particularly if rolling blackouts occur. It will be open season for anti-Americanism here...well, at least more open season than it already is, which is, of course, always en vogue to some degree.

 

This has a major risk of being seen as heavy handed interventionism and if that happens, it won't be good. 

 

The Americans need the Germans to get on board, but if they do, they run the risk of committing electoral suicide if war kicks off and the power goes out, which no politician will do.

 

spacer.png

 

spacer.png

Edited by Shady Ray
  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

So President Biden has drawn a line in the sand re: NS2.  If Russia invades, the pipeline is off.  My question is this: Does the US have the juice to shut it down?  How can we influence a pipeline halfway around the World?

I will try to break it down, sanctions get super complicated.  There are actually two instruments here-- Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) and the Protecting Europe's Energy Security Act (PEESA).  CAATSA is the one we use to target people like the Norks and Iranians and Russians and others, while PEESA is more targeted.

Until now, the U.S. has walked a tightrope-- we have sanctioned the various Russian vessels and entities doing work on the pipeline but have waived sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG (NS2AG) -- the German company that "owns" NS2.  It's important to note that the word "waived."  These sanctions are in place under federal law, but a provision in the law allows the president to waive sanctions in the interest of national security.  The agreement to continue to waive sanctions on NS2AG was the big breakthrough of Biden-Merkel last summer and even then, there was the indirect threat that if Putin decided to Fuck Around, then Germany might Find Out.

Sanctioning NS2AG is the nuclear option (will explain below why the U.S. wanted to avoid it).  Implementing those CAATSA or PEESA sanctions brings the usual heat that U.S. sanctions do-- any assets in the U.S. are blocked, controlling officers get visa sanctions and their assets in the U.S. blocked, they are cut off from the U.S. financial system, etc., etc.  But it is the knock-on effects that really make this a problem, because you and your businesses have now joined the Iranian Revolutionary Guards as a "difficult to bank" customer for financial institutions around the globe.  Want to get a loan from a company with lots of U.S. business? Fuck you.  Want to do a dollar denominated transaction? Fuck you.  Want to get underwritten by companies with big U.S. businesses? Fuck you. Want to do business with other companies that might want to do work with American companies? Fuck you. You are getting the point, I trust. 

You can see how this presents a problem.  And while Iran and the Norks have set up a whole system to get around this stuff, it still makes life hard and they aren't trying to operate openly in the EU which is and will remain the biggest trading partner of the United States.  There might be some way to jerry rig things, but the full heat of CAATSA or PEESA against any going concern in the Western world means the death of that concern. You're basically radioactive and not worth the trouble for any financial institution or other partner big enough to be worth partnering with.  

The U.S. really doesn't want to do this for all the reasons @Shady Ray mentioned but also for a bigger reason.  Our European friends have only half-heartedly made efforts to decouple from the U.S.-centered financial and business system because stuff like this has never been a big concern for them.  We've slapped some corrupt oligarchs in new member states and some shady arms dealers and the like, but we have never specifically gone after a big European company engaged in important business.  And if we do, that will be a warning bell even for people who don't want NS2 to go forward.  It's sort of a rift in the BFF relationship that you can't recover from, and it will spark a more concerted effort for the Europeans to stake out more "strategic autonomy."  Again, that will be true even among our friends.  So the preferable action all around is for Putin to back down and for all this to go away. Second best would be for Ole' Olaf to blink and take the hit himself and turn the fucking thing off if Russia invades.  But the nuclear U.S. threat is hanging out there.  

As I said, Germany is right at the edge of "Russia fucks around and you find out" territory.  This could not have come at a worse time.  First of all, the U.S. gave some significant ground and Biden spent some political capital by waiving these things to begin with, and the understanding was that Germany would nut up if Russia stepped out of line over the next few months.  And that's what happened, and it can't be missed that it happened right as Merkel left.  Second, Russia has behaved almost exactly as the U.S. insisted it would and has treated NS2 as a geopolitical tool to create a wedge and give cover for its aggression.  This is one case where the pessimists in Washington were exactly right about what this thing was. 

 

Edited by 956 Worldwide
  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Six Russian battleships now in the Black Sea for "drills:"

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-six-warships-heading-093509498.html

Important to note what those ships were.  They are six landing vessels, along with another attack submarine.  This is the type of asset mix you would expect if the aim is either to launch an amphibious assault or make it look like you are planning to.  Even if not used, they are sort of an amphibious fleet in being that means Ukraine will constantly have to worry about their deployment against Mariupol, elsewhere along the Sea of Azov, or even Odessa. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Picture of Macron and Putin sitting down to talk kinda tells us all we need to know I think...

 

That while taller than Putin, Macron is basically a midget like most world leaders?  And that we can draw a conclusion from this that all short people should probably be put in their place to avoid this chaotic world they've created?

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

That while taller than Putin, Macron is basically a midget like most world leaders?  And that we can draw a conclusion from this that all short people should probably be put in their place to avoid this chaotic world they've created?

Merkel is said to be 5'3", so using the Merkel Measurement, neither Putin, Scholz, or Macron appear to be over 5'4"...and hell, Zelensky isn't even a full Merkel.

 

So yeah, we are probably fucked.

 

spacer.png

 

spacer.png

 

 

 

spacer.png

 

spacer.png

 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, crash_davis said:

Ukraine’s Army Is Underfunded, Outgunned and Not Ready to Stop a Russian Invasion
The Defense Ministry had proposed spending money on pricey waffle towels when basic supplies were more urgently needed.
ByMarc Champion , Daryna Krasnolutska, and Nick Wadhams
January 5, 2022, 6:10 AM GMT+1

...

When the Defense Ministry came to parliament in December with its shopping list for 2022, news of the Russian troop build-up had long since broken. But the number of bulletproof vests it wanted to buy was just half the amount needed for current troop numbers, let alone the reserves that would be called up should a Russian invasion materialize, according to Serhiy Rakhmanin, an opposition lawmaker and member of the parliamentary committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence.

 

Due to a lack of funds, there weren’t enough rifles or helmets on the list either, said Rakhmanin, a former journalist who has been critical as a lawmaker of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his government. There was however a request for remarkably pricey waffle towels and Soviet-era radiation detection equipment that’s no longer of obvious utility.

“I had a question: OK, let’s say war starts tomorrow, do you really need this stuff?” Rakhmanin said. The towels and detectors were removed from the list.

The Defense Ministry has pledged to upgrade its procedures, blaming delays in procurement on bureaucracy and promising to reduce classified contracts in order to reduce corruption. Multiple requests for a response to Rakhmanin’s claims did not elicit a comment. 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-05/ukraine-news-army-underfunded-not-ready-to-stop-a-russia-invasion

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • immamac changed the title to Russia declares independence on behalf of the Ukraine so it can protect the Ukraine or something like that
  • immamac changed the title to Русский корабль - иди нахуй

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...