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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

^Good, the Swiss are still helping.

This might be among the best measures taken to de-escalate.  Pierce the "veil" of Russian controlled media.  I know many younger people have VPN, etc...but a mass, coordinated strategy of revealing what is really going on can have a dramatic impact on sentiment among the Russian population.  

 

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25 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Nobody was going to attack Russia with its 6,500 nukes and this had nothing to do with NATO expansion. Ukraine was also never going to be allowed to join as long as there were Russian troops on its territory.  

Putin has bitched for decades about the breakup of the USSR and that Ukraine is not a real nation and is a part of Russia.  Last summer he even publicly put out a bit of a manifesto about how Ukraine is really a part of Russia. 

Russia has reached a point demographics-wise where its military is in trouble going forward.  They didn’t have enough children in the 90s and it’s crippling them going forward. If they didn’t invade now, they sure as hell could not have invaded in 5-10 years.  Ukraine would have continued building its military while Russian manpower continued to decline.   

In addition to wanting to put back together the USSR, significant gas fields were discovered in Eastern Ukraine, Ukraine shut off water to Crimea creating an economic burden for Russia, and Russia needed help growing its economy.

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29 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Which is why Putin's chess game seems pretty shitty to me.

He played a masterful first 2/3 of the match, what with destabilizing the West, creating internal dissent, splitting apart the EU with Brexit, amping up political divisiveness in the US, etc.  He had his opposition in a less-than-ideal posture.

But then he blew most of that with an incredibly arrogant and ill-planned/prepared invasion of a real sovereign state in Europe.  With respect to Russia, most of the advantages he had cultivated went "poof," functionally overnight (e.g., the UK is working pretty much in lockstep with the EU on this one).

Then, if his REAL goal was "stable borders with no nearby NATO threat," he just put on a display that demonstrated in concrete and bloody terms that any western nation within reach of Russia would be a damned fool to NOT be a member of NATO if it had the option.  So, here come Sweden and Finland, giving Russia an ADDITIONAL border with a NATO nation.

The first 2/3 of the match were played masterfully.  And then Putin felt like he had the match in the bag, so he started playing like a drunken moron.  And the problem is, you only score the match at the end -- nobody cares how many pieces you took down, or how much you dominated most of the game.  The only question is who ends up in checkmate.  Putin has put himself and Russia in a place where it's very hard to see how they will come out ahead of even where they were before they started this mess, much less coming out even or ahead of where they wanted to end up.

 

This might also in part may be the reason why Putin is in the process of doing a Satlin-era style purge in the FSB that was supposed to be managing the infiltration of Ukraine and the lead up to the invasion. If I were Putin, I would be pissed at this point because up to the invasion, the plan was working, and all it took is the invasion to succeed quickly and everyone else would have been forced to play ball on this. Now the world is united against him and we are seeing NATO being pressed closer to him, not farther away. Anyone that helped plan the invasion is going to be put to the question to help save face internally.

He was literally on the cusp of achieving his plan, and most likely would have if this was done and over within 3 days like everyone expected it to be. Hard to have the continued outrage politically at home from a foreign leader's standpoint once done is done.

With this now dragging on and the west now being able to see the impact of the sanctions as well as the continued ability of the Ukrainians to not only fight to a stalemate but to now see Russia having to re-consolidate back to there strongholds in eastern Ukraine to rethink/rearm/reconstitute the various BTGs due to massive losses, there is now a viable coalition that is incentivized to actively oppose Russia on this. This now emboldens everyone because now the image of Russian military might is now in question and the inability/futility of the Russian industrial complex is now on center stage.

I do not condone Putin's attack on the Ukraine, but from a geopolitical standpoint, he pretty much had this played perfectly until the actual invasion itself.  The political divisions globally pre-invasion were set up to allow Russia to invade with limited longterm political ramifications if Ukraine would have crumbled quickly and a "treaty" could have been signed quickly to set up a puppet Ukrainian regime. We are now 6 weeks in and not only is that objective an impossibility, the political cover they had to do this is gone and worse has galvanized the other countries that would be viewed as buffer states between Russia and NATO to seek NATO membership.

 

So is this Putin failing by asking his military/intelligence services to do the impossible or his military/intelligence services to blame?

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This might also in part may be the reason why Putin is in the process of doing a Satlin-era style purge in the FSB that was supposed to be managing the infiltration of Ukraine and the lead up to the invasion. If I were Putin, I would be pissed at this point because up to the invasion, the plan was working, and all it took is the invasion to succeed quickly and everyone else would have been forced to play ball on this. Now the world is united against him and we are seeing NATO being pressed closer to him, not farther away. Anyone that helped plan the invasion is going to be put to the question to help save face internally.
He was literally on the cusp of achieving his plan, and most likely would have if this was done and over within 3 days like everyone expected it to be. Hard to have the continued outrage politically at home from a foreign leader's standpoint once done is done.
With this now dragging on and the west now being able to see the impact of the sanctions as well as the continued ability of the Ukrainians to not only fight to a stalemate but to now see Russia having to re-consolidate back to there strongholds in eastern Ukraine to rethink/rearm/reconstitute the various BTGs due to massive losses, there is now a viable coalition that is incentivized to actively oppose Russia on this. This now emboldens everyone because now the image of Russian military might is now in question and the inability/futility of the Russian industrial complex is now on center stage.
I do not condone Putin's attack on the Ukraine, but from a geopolitical standpoint, he pretty much had this played perfectly until the actual invasion itself.  The political divisions globally pre-invasion were set up to allow Russia to invade with limited longterm political ramifications if Ukraine would have crumbled quickly and a "treaty" could have been signed quickly to set up a puppet Ukrainian regime. We are now 6 weeks in and not only is that objective an impossibility, the political cover they had to do this is gone and worse has galvanized the other countries that would be viewed as buffer states between Russia and NATO to seek NATO membership.
 
So is this Putin failing by asking his military/intelligence services to do the impossible or his military/intelligence services to blame?

I think y’all are overestimating it. He moved his pawns around and then had his second row blasted by US pawns. Yeah we lost some as well, but now we have control of the board. Sure he can go all out and use his queen to take out another pawn or maybe even a knight, but that leaves him down another major piece.


Putin acted foolishly.
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2 minutes ago, Nivek said:


I think y’all are overestimating it. He moved his pawns around and then had his second row blasted by US pawns. Yeah we lost some as well, but now we have control of the board. Sure he can go all out and use his queen to take out another pawn or maybe even a knight, but that leaves him down another major piece.
 

Is this Wizard's Chess or regular chess?

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Russia has approved the abduction of Ukrainian children at the state level.

They decided to "teach" Ukrainian children who do not speak Russian to Russia. It is known that the occupiers took tens of thousands of Ukrainian children to death.

Imperial flag of Russia, St. George's ribbon and the flag of the USSR on one chevron. What's in these people's heads?

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Chernihiv region. Remains of the Rashi column.

Izyum direction, destroyed Russian equipment

The guards found a large storage of ammunition in Kyiv region

 The service continues in the liberated settlements of Kyiv region, where the occupiers left a large number of weapons, ammunition, as well as possible work of sabotage and reconnaissance groups.

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Russia increases military forces at Lipetsk-2 airfield in Lipetsk region

 ▫️ The number of fighters and bombers at the airfield has doubled since the end of March, according to satellite images.

This is what the base for the supply of occupation troops in the town of Dzhankoi in the occupied Crimea now looks like.

 From here the supplies go to about 50 battalion-tactical groups operating in the south and east of Ukraine.

Destroyed Russian pontoon bridge with equipment, probably raisins.

It is also possible that it is Moshchun.

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At the end of March, after numerous artillery shellings, Russian troops transferred helicopters from Chornobaivka to Chaplynka, but did not leave Kherson airport. Recent satellite images from Maxar on April 7 show that the enemy has established itself at the airport.

This is how I understand the repair zone and the cemetery of the destroyed equipment of the occupiers. There is a lot of work here for OSINT. And we are waiting for 300-30-3 😉

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46 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

 

This might also in part may be the reason why Putin is in the process of doing a Satlin-era style purge in the FSB that was supposed to be managing the infiltration of Ukraine and the lead up to the invasion. If I were Putin, I would be pissed at this point because up to the invasion, the plan was working, and all it took is the invasion to succeed quickly and everyone else would have been forced to play ball on this. Now the world is united against him and we are seeing NATO being pressed closer to him, not farther away. Anyone that helped plan the invasion is going to be put to the question to help save face internally.

He was literally on the cusp of achieving his plan, and most likely would have if this was done and over within 3 days like everyone expected it to be. Hard to have the continued outrage politically at home from a foreign leader's standpoint once done is done.

With this now dragging on and the west now being able to see the impact of the sanctions as well as the continued ability of the Ukrainians to not only fight to a stalemate but to now see Russia having to re-consolidate back to there strongholds in eastern Ukraine to rethink/rearm/reconstitute the various BTGs due to massive losses, there is now a viable coalition that is incentivized to actively oppose Russia on this. This now emboldens everyone because now the image of Russian military might is now in question and the inability/futility of the Russian industrial complex is now on center stage.

I do not condone Putin's attack on the Ukraine, but from a geopolitical standpoint, he pretty much had this played perfectly until the actual invasion itself.  The political divisions globally pre-invasion were set up to allow Russia to invade with limited longterm political ramifications if Ukraine would have crumbled quickly and a "treaty" could have been signed quickly to set up a puppet Ukrainian regime. We are now 6 weeks in and not only is that objective an impossibility, the political cover they had to do this is gone and worse has galvanized the other countries that would be viewed as buffer states between Russia and NATO to seek NATO membership.

 

So is this Putin failing by asking his military/intelligence services to do the impossible or his military/intelligence services to blame?

Authoritarian dictatorships often punish truth if it isn't what they want to hear. Early on there were reports that FSB agents felt telling accurate reports of Ukrainian sentiment towards Russia would only lead to them being investigated for being disloyal.

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17 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

If that's an actual Orlan-10, and they are using an old-ass camera when it's claimed the units cost over $80,000, what do you want to bet that somewhere in the supply chain some Russian is selling them that 7 year-old camera that's normally worth $300, for probably $10,000 or more?

You think like corrupted Westerner. I think like son of Mother Russia. Drone, including camera, cost $1,000 to build. Other $79,000 go to brother-in-law's cousin's school friend. Now drink.

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1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

So is this Putin failing by asking his military/intelligence services to do the impossible or his military/intelligence services to blame?

Killing everyone that gives him bad news is going to be near the top of list. Not wanting strong military leadership that could rise up would be up there as well. I believe all the RU Generals that were in Crimea were removed in one way or another. Then a culture of graft and everyone in the chain selling off what they could get away with.

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4 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

You think like corrupted Westerner. I think like son of Mother Russia. Drone, including camera, cost $1,000 to build. Other $79,000 go to brother-in-law's cousin's school friend. Now drink.

So on brand for you to always see the side hustle. 

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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9 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Killing everyone that gives him bad news is going to be near the top of list. Not wanting strong military leadership that could rise up would be up there as well. I believe all the RU Generals that were in Crimea were removed in one way or another. Then a culture of graft and everyone in the chain selling off what they could get away with.

4433a65b-a044-4da2-b402-d10f17accd3c_tex

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2 hours ago, TexPx said:


Sweden had Nazi sympathizers too.
National League of Sweden
New Swedish Movement
Svensk Socialistisk Samling. IKEA founder Ingvar Kamprad caught shit when it was revealed he was a member during WWII.

They did.  But unlike the Finns, they didn't actively and overtly wage war in German uniforms and equipment against the Russians.

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36 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

You think like corrupted Westerner. I think like son of Mother Russia. Drone, including camera, cost $1,000 to build. Other $79,000 go to brother-in-law's cousin's school friend. Now drink.

In Dubai, with Belorussian sluts. Now come to think of it.....  

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2 hours ago, MillerEP said:
 

This is a really interesting article. You IT geeks should appreciate it.

Here's a couple of good, pertinent paragraphs.

Quote

 

There are early signs that the efforts to break down the wall of propaganda may be working, said a senior Western intelligence official, who like other security officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified or sensitive government assessments.

And an American data analytics company, FilterLabs.AI, which has been tracking Russian sentiment on internet message boards and other online forums, says it has measured growing anxiety among Russians about the draft and war casualties. Mr. Putin recently signed a decree ordering up about 134,500 conscripts, though the Defense Ministry said they would not go to Ukraine.

Check out the Filter labs website to check their data: https://www.filter-russia.com/

 

Full article spoilered below:

Spoiler

U.S. and Ukrainian Groups Pierce Putin’s Propaganda Bubble
U.S.-backed news outlets and Ukrainian activists use Cold War techniques and high-tech tactics to get news about the war to Russians.

WASHINGTON — Using a mix of high-tech and Cold War tactics, Ukrainian activists and Western institutions have begun to pierce the propaganda bubble in Russia, circulating information about the Ukraine war among Russian citizens to sow doubt about the Kremlin’s accounts.

The efforts come at a particularly urgent moment: Moscow appears to be preparing for a new assault in eastern Ukraine that could prove devastatingly bloody to both sides, while mounting reports of atrocities make plain the brutality of the Kremlin’s tactics.

As Russia presents a sanitized version of the war, Ukrainian activists have been sending messages highlighting government corruption and incompetence in an effort to undermine faith in the Kremlin.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, a U.S.-funded but independent news organization founded decades ago, is trying to push its broadcasts deeper into Russia. Its Russian-language articles are published on copies of its websites called “mirrors,” which Russian censors seek out in a high-stakes game of whack-a-mole. Audience numbers have surged during the war despite the censorship.

American organizations are also promoting the use of software that allows Russian citizens to leap over the nascent firewall erected by the Kremlin to control internet access.

The efforts face high barriers as the Kremlin tightens controls on journalists and the internet, passing laws that have forced the closure of independent media outlets, like the Echo of Moscow. President Vladimir V. Putin is doing all he can to keep Russians in the dark about Europe’s largest land war since 1945, with casualties going largely unreported in Russian news media.

The Russian government has focused in particular on restricting reports of war casualties. In its most recent official announcement, in late March, Russia reported 1,351 military deaths, while the latest American intelligence estimate, which was shared with Congress in recent days, put the number at 4,000 to 5,000.

But cracks in Moscow’s facade are starting to show. On Thursday, the Kremlin’s spokesman acknowledged that Russia had suffered “significant losses.”

After the war started in February, Mr. Putin began erecting an internet firewall similar to China’s to block some Russian and Western news sites and social media networks. Russians can still visit Google and YouTube, but many Western sources of news are labeled “foreign agents.”

An authoritarian government does not have to maintain a perfect firewall to keep its public in a propaganda bubble. Many Russians get their news from state-controlled television and radio. And some Russian analysts argue that most citizens support the government for reasons beyond their news diet and want to believe the Kremlin’s lines.

American intelligence officials say that is why pushing information into Russia, and reaching the broadest population, is so difficult.

Nevertheless, American and European officials say that the attempt by outsiders to get facts about the war to Russians is important.

For now, Mr. Putin and the invasion remain popular in Russia, according to polls, though analysts caution that such measures of Russian attitudes are unreliable, mainly because many people fear making antiwar statements. The police have arrested thousands of protesters, and many people self-censor their remarks on Ukraine.

There are early signs that the efforts to break down the wall of propaganda may be working, said a senior Western intelligence official, who like other security officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss classified or sensitive government assessments.

And an American data analytics company, FilterLabs.AI, which has been tracking Russian sentiment on internet message boards and other online forums, says it has measured growing anxiety among Russians about the draft and war casualties. Mr. Putin recently signed a decree ordering up about 134,500 conscripts, though the Defense Ministry said they would not go to Ukraine.

Planting the Seeds of Doubt

The email to the 18-year-old Russian was, in some ways, subtle. It did not directly mention the invasion of Ukraine or allegations of war crimes against Russian soldiers.

Instead, it talked about the mistreatment of Russian soldiers by their own military and suggested the Russian government was lying to conscripts and, crucially, providing inadequate food and equipment to the country’s soldiers.

Over the last two weeks, a group of Ukrainian activists, government officials and think tanks, called the Information Strategies Council of Ukraine, has sent emails and social media messages to 15 million Russian men of draft age, between 18 and 27. It aimed other posts at older Russians, using historical references to prod them to discuss government-sanctioned news reports.

“The fundamental problem is that when you want to tackle the propaganda, you cannot just say what you are getting on TV is not true; it doesn’t work like that,” said Sophia Hnizdovska, an executive at the council. “We are trying to slowly, through our narratives, make people question the official sources.”

The most successful posts by the Ukrainian activists have built on this theme, focusing on the incompetence and corruption of Russian military leaders, members of the group say.

One image circulated by the group portrayed senior Russian military leaders, including Sergei K. Shoigu, the defense minister, with his head filled with question marks and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the senior military leader, with his head filled with an image of a superyacht.

Russians tend to dismiss messages highlighting Russian war crimes as American propaganda, according to activists, and pictures of Russian casualties run the risk of inciting anger at Ukraine, rather than the Kremlin.

Mr. Teubner’s company is trying to measure the Ukrainians’ success — and in recent days has tracked what appears to be growing negative sentiment across Russia toward a draft. If the Ukrainians can sow enough doubt about the truthfulness of the Russian government, Ms. Hnizdovska said, more Russians will seek out information from Western-supported Russian-language news media.

Radio Waves and Real News

During the Cold War, the U.S. government, and the C.I.A. specifically, helped found and fund independent media organizations with the mission to penetrate the Iron Curtain with fact-based news.

With the invasion of Ukraine, the organizations are once again operating with a sense of urgency as they push to get accurate information inside an authoritarian state.

The news organizations are using both old-school and 21st-century tactics, creating radio programs and complex digital information campaigns.

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the main private, independent news organization in the region with U.S. government financing, is producing journalism on the war from reporters on the front lines in Ukraine and working quietly in Russia.

Commonly known as RFE/RL, the group has a Russian-language news site and a 24-hour Russian-language television network, Current Time, as well as websites aimed at regional audiences in a wide range of languages, including Tatar, Chechen and Belarusian.

Like some other news organizations and U.S.-based social media companies, its websites were blocked in Russia starting in late February. And it suspended its main operations in Russia last month.

RFE/RL opened offices in Lithuania and Latvia as new bases for its reporting on Russia. The group also has a medium-wave radio transmitter in Lithuania to send broadcasts into Russia that can be picked up on an AM frequency. Officials said they hoped to expand the signal’s strength.

The group uses Telegram, a chat app, to disseminate some of its reporting and to send out the web addresses of its new “mirror” sites.

A Washington-based sister organization that also gets funding from the U.S. government, the Open Technology Fund, sets up the mirror sites and constantly creates new ones to stay a step ahead of Russian government censors.

“In the context of new censorship, the mirror program has grown rapidly and Russian censors are proving to be a very active adversary,” said Nat Kretchun, the organization’s senior vice president for programs. “Our partners are setting up a more automated system where once the Russian censors block them, new sites are set up.”

The technology group arranges for some of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s sites to be hosted by Tor, a digital communications network that helps shield ordinary internet users from surveillance. And it gives financing to companies and groups developing virtual private network apps, software known as VPNs, that help citizens get around internet firewalls. Owners of smart TVs in Russia can also download an app for Current Time.

And Current Time is among the RFE/RL networks and programs with channels on YouTube, which, unlike Facebook and Instagram, has not been blocked by Russian censors. RFE/RL said the number of video views on its YouTube channels more than tripled in the first three weeks of the war, to 237.6 million, from the three weeks prior.

“We’re seeing higher audience numbers for Russians inside the country and also for Russians outside,” said Jamie Fly, the president and chief executive of RFE/RL. “The challenge is: Can we maintain that over time? Will interest fade?”

In mid-March, Russian news outlets began running stories saying that Russian casualties in Ukraine were low, in contrast to much higher Western estimates. Those reports, according to an analysis by FilterLabs, came just as concern about the country’s war dead was starting to rise on local internet message boards — and as soldiers’ coffins began returning home.

Stories about Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine and Russian prisoners of war are among the most popular across RFE/RL platforms, said Patrick Boehler, the head of digital strategy for the news organization. The news agency’s reporters in Ukraine who learn the identities of Russians killed or taken prisoner pass that information to colleagues in Russia, who then try to find and interview the families.

The software developed by FilterLabs began tracking changes in public sentiment and shifts in how Russian news outlets talk about wartime casualties. Some skeptics question this kind of artificial-intelligence-driven sentiment analysis, and FilterLabs acknowledges that the technology has limits.

But the group says the broad trends it identifies are reliable and show that concern about the draft is increasing, as discussions on message boards appear to indicate that Russians are growing more worried that their children will be conscripted into the military to fight in Ukraine, Mr. Teubner said.

“The overall sentiment when talking about the draft is trending very negatively in the popular forums,” he said. “This shows us what is likely one of the greatest vulnerabilities for those trying to maintain support for the war over the long term.”

 

Edited by bolverk
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Not verified, but interesting list. M-113's? Damn they are old and proven to get blown up. But good for auxiliary support. Coastal vessels is interesting. Artillery and counter battery radars are going to be fun to watch. Will be able to eat up some Ruskie batteries. Shit is going to look like the Western Front when done. Now it looks like WW2. 

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, bolverk said:

And an American data analytics company, FilterLabs.AI, which has been tracking Russian sentiment on internet message boards and other online forums, says it has measured growing anxiety among Russians about the draft and war casualties. Mr. Putin recently signed a decree ordering up about 134,500 conscripts, though the Defense Ministry said they would not go to Ukraine.

Wait.....they're monitoring message board posts?  Ummmmm......

yG6-OB.gif

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

DAMN..... So the UA does listen to the Surl. 

 

Fuck.  YES.

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The Neptune missiles are launched from a truck-mounted mobile launcher and in tests have hit targets up to 100 Km away.  It looks like they were designed for use against smaller ships up to 5,000 tons.  The Moscow has a displacement of 12,490 tons.  It would be interesting to see what two Neptune hits did to it.  I'm sure the there are pictures of the damage floating around the Pentagon

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