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Donald Trump 2019


Francisco 2.0

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8 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Dumb question amnesty.....for some time now we have seen the writing on the wall in regards to a coming recession. We see tweets like the ones above on a weekly basis..... 

Soooo......why does the stock market keep chugging along to higher levels? Remember, 

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Corporations used the tax breaks Trump gave to buyback record amounts of stock, not pay their employees more.  Shocking 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/business/economy/trumps-tax-cut-was-supposed-to-change-corporate-behavior-heres-what-happened.amp.html

This will only delay an inevitable recession according to most economists.  That’s as much as I can dumb it down.  It’s more complicated but this is a key part of why it’s humming now.  
 

Put another way, say you’re gonna crash from no sleep.  Everyone says you need sleep - you hitting a line of blow doesn’t fix shit...in the long term.  But it sure as hell delays the impending crash.  

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2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Corporations used the tax breaks Trump gave to buyback record amounts of stock, not pay their employees more.  Shocking 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/business/economy/trumps-tax-cut-was-supposed-to-change-corporate-behavior-heres-what-happened.amp.html

This will only delay an inevitable recession according to most economists.  That’s as much as I can dumb it down.  It’s more complicated but this is a key part of why it’s humming now.  
 

Put another way, say you’re gonna crash from no sleep.  Everyone says you need sleep - you hitting a line of blow doesn’t fix shit...in the long term.  But it sure as hell delays the impending crash.  

the myth of trickle down economics exposed.

corporations are not interested in paying their people. they are interested in share price. that's all. 

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1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Corporations used the tax breaks Trump gave to buyback record amounts of stock, not pay their employees more.  Shocking 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/business/economy/trumps-tax-cut-was-supposed-to-change-corporate-behavior-heres-what-happened.amp.html

This will only delay an inevitable recession according to most economists.  That’s as much as I can dumb it down.  It’s more complicated but this is a key part of why it’s humming now.  
 

Put another way, say you’re gonna crash from no sleep.  Everyone says you need sleep - you hitting a line of blow doesn’t fix shit...in the long term.  But it sure as hell delays the impending crash.  

I have been concerned that if the crash comes after the election and if that person is a Democrat, the party will be sunk for a very very long time, given the disarray there is now. It would take an enormous effort of belt tightening and fraternity among citizens to pull together that I just don't know is possible at this time in our history. It would not perhaps be surprising for Putin to make his move then. He's in Europe, the Middle East, and is now moving on Africa. Ugh, sorry, the rain has brought me a case of the dramas today. I better get back to work.

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I've been paying attention to the US economy for over 30 years, and if there's one thing I know for sure, it's that pundits are horrible at predicting an imminent _____.  

Yes, there is a recession in our future.  That's about as precise as anyone should get.  

As far as the stock market goes, the stock market is not the economy.

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

And we all pay for it, one way or another, regardless of what Trump's base thinks.

Why is this not brought up on the campaign trail?

Medicare for all is a loser. Seriously. But you know what isn’t? Free healthcare for children and pregnant women.

Who can argue about that? Yeah people may bring up cost. But it’s far cheaper to cover kids, babies, and pregos than to have this.

Also you can throw it back in Republican faces as they aren’t family values if you don’t want kids to have healthcare.

Free healthcare for kids and being able to buy into Medicare at 55 are winners that don’t upend the current system but will actually deliver real results in 1.) getting people covered and 2.) reducing costs

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1 hour ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I have been concerned that if the crash comes after the election and if that person is a Democrat, the party will be sunk for a very very long time, given the disarray there is now. It would take an enormous effort of belt tightening and fraternity among citizens to pull together that I just don't know is possible at this time in our history. It would not perhaps be surprising for Putin to make his move then. He's in Europe, the Middle East, and is now moving on Africa. Ugh, sorry, the rain has brought me a case of the dramas today. I better get back to work.

Only dumbasses think the sitting President has everything to do with the current state of the economy.   
And this country is chock full of dumbasses - worry away.  

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On 10/29/2019 at 7:14 AM, Lobo said:

What's he tweeting about?  I don't have that account or app, but please post a couple of his more poignant thoughts. 

I used to think, as much as I disliked him, that he at least seems to be up and at it very early for a fat guy his age.  Then somebody on here started posting his official calendar each day and I see that for the most part, other that tweeting, he doesn't do anything else before lunch.  So it's easy to get up when all you have to do is just spew rage.  I mean, isn't that we're doing right now?  But then most of us have to hit the grind here shortly and help with kids, etc.  

Anyway, I wonder which WH Staffer has to come into his bedroom to help him with these tweets.  Obviously Milania ain't in there to assist with spelling, word choice, etc.  Some poor communications staffer has to come in there and see him in his most undecent.  I can see him now talking to her, "Nevermind my massive tiny morning mushroom wood sweetheart.  We gotta get these tweets out."  

Honestly at 70 something, waking with morning wood is pretty uncommon.

On 10/29/2019 at 9:17 AM, Lobo said:

^

that's an interesting point, what's been the highest profile termination of an active-duty officer by a Commander-in-Chief?  I'm sure it's happened before.  I know his team is already looking for precedent.  Fucking traitors.  

Meanwhile, Pence is about to land in Austin, rent some assless chaps from Lucy-in-Disguise on South Congress and get to partying. 

 

On 10/29/2019 at 9:32 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Truman Firing MacArthur is the highest profile

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/truman-relieves-macarthur-of-duties-in-korea

Trump is too insecure to fire Vindman, just like he doesn’t fuck with Ted Lieu’s status as an Air Force Reserve officer   

Trump really is trying to piss the military off though.   He seems to feel about them the way he feels about the FBI.

 

I was thinking Lincoln and McClennan.

On 10/29/2019 at 10:32 AM, Captainant said:

it's actually very easy now, you just paste the link in the text editor and it automagically embeds 

the secret is giving the website time to do it's magic before hitting submit/save.  That's why you see empty quotes, because the link didn't load in time.  I think.

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31 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Why is this not brought up on the campaign trail?

Medicare for all is a loser. Seriously. But you know what isn’t? Free healthcare for children and pregnant women.

Who can argue about that? Yeah people may bring up cost. But it’s far cheaper to cover kids, babies, and pregos than to have this.

Also you can throw it back in Republican faces as they aren’t family values if you don’t want kids to have healthcare.

Free healthcare for kids and being able to buy into Medicare at 55 are winners that don’t upend the current system but will actually deliver real results in 1.) getting people covered and 2.) reducing costs

The current system is going to be upended whether they like it or not. The question is when.

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15 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

WINNING!

 

 

 

You know how sometimes you wonder if your own economic or political ideology is actually reflective of reality?   But then you see a guy like this who literally looks like a cold baron who’s been living underground in a mine for the last 20 years counting his cash.   And you realize, no the rest of us are not in sane

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2 hours ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Dumb question amnesty.....for some time now we have seen the writing on the wall in regards to a coming recession. We see tweets like the ones above on a weekly basis..... 

Soooo......why does the stock market keep chugging along to higher levels? Remember, 

spacer.png

The stock market is a poor indicator of the health of the economy.  Stock prices are largely controlled my market makers who use fear as a catalyst to make money, either fear of missing out, or fear of getting stuck on a sinking ship.  And just for clarity, I don't mean they control it in a conspiratorial way, but rather they use news stories to either buy or sell large quantities of stock which thereby move the prices up or down.

We all know the buy low, sell high rule, and that's basically what they do, only they have a big impact on whether it is high or low.  So, to maximize profits they take the prices up prior to a big down move and down before a big up movement.  It's known as accumulation and distribution.

Prior to the a big move there is typically a prior of consolidation.  The rule of thumb is that the longer the consolidation, the greater the move.  We've been in a period of consolidation since January 2018.  The Fed has kept it propped up pretty good, but they are running out of arrows in the quiver, so when the recession hits, it could be very bad.

Additionally, the average time between a bond curve inversion and a recession is 18 months.  If that holds true, we should enter a recession sometime in the 4th quarter of 2020.  My guess is just after Trump loses in November, and so the GOP will of course blame the Dems.

These movements happen at all time frames, so as a day trader, I try to recolonize what's happening and use that info to follow the smart money.  Obviously not always successfully, but if you can get it right 60% of the time you can make serious money.

Edit: Damn you Matt...using bullet points to finish earlier is cheating, lol

Edited by DixonHur
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1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

Why is this not brought up on the campaign trail?

Medicare for all is a loser. Seriously. But you know what isn’t? Free healthcare for children and pregnant women.

Who can argue about that? Yeah people may bring up cost. But it’s far cheaper to cover kids, babies, and pregos than to have this.

Also you can throw it back in Republican faces as they aren’t family values if you don’t want kids to have healthcare.

Free healthcare for kids and being able to buy into Medicare at 55 are winners that don’t upend the current system but will actually deliver real results in 1.) getting people covered and 2.) reducing costs

Because it's easy to ignore when poor people's hospital bills that go unpaid are covered by increased hospital bills for everybody else, because there's no line items in your hospital bill that say "fee to cover unpaid hospital bills from poor people".

You know, if Trump ran a hospital, he would probably bankrupt it faster than he could a casino.

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3 hours ago, hayden_horn said:

the myth of trickle down economics exposed.

corporations are not interested in paying their people. they are interested in share price. that's all. 

Corporations want a strong consumer.  So they believe and want trickle down to work, just not at the expense of themselves and their shareholders.  And in the end, they all behave badly.  
 

Truly shocking.  

As a concept, trickle down should pass muster...but reality?  LOL, only a real dumbass really believes in trickle down.  

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1 hour ago, pyrohornIII said:

I was thinking Lincoln and McClennan.

McClellan didn't have radio and TV news cycles to contend with.  And he didn't have MacArthur's long and distinguished record.

If you want something more recent, Stanley McChrystal.

But again, Trump doesn't have the balls to vindictively fire Vindman for doing nothing wrong, just as he doesn't with Ted Lieu, because that would be crossing yet another line, and even some Rs are getting tired of the line-crossing.

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4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

As a concept, trickle down should pass muster...but reality?  LOL, only a real dumbass really believes in trickle down.  

I disagree.  Trickle down is bad economics even in theory, because you're giving money to people who will save/invest it instead of spending it on material items...unless maybe if you're an athlete or entertainer.

Trickle up is much more likely to increase consumption because the incremental dollars at the bottom are more likely to be put back directly into the economy.

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3 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I disagree.  Trickle down is bad economics even in theory, because you're giving money to people who will save/invest it instead of spending it on material items...unless maybe if you're an athlete or entertainer.

Trickle up is much more likely to increase consumption because the incremental dollars at the bottom are more likely to be put back directly into the economy.

I didn’t say what they do with it - that I’d agree with.  Point is it doesn’t even trickle down.  

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Being a sucker for dog pics, when I first saw it, I was wondering if I could Photoshop out the idiot in the background.  Then upon further inspection it appears someone intentionally added the idiot.  Heinous act of a some demented fuckstick to create that thing.

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