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2019 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread


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As for Dorian, the high in the Western Atlantic that's been steering Dorian mostly west around it has collapsed this morning.  That's why Dorian has stopped, and if anything I've seen the eye wobble a bit NW even N.  Probably the turn... although there is nothing at this moment "steering" hurricanes, if no guiding force is acting on its course, the hurricane itself will tend to steer a bit NW/N as the actual spinning of the storm provides friction to propel it the opposite direction of its circulation, which usually wants to go northward.  However the water provides very little friction (land a lot more), but maybe enough to push it... even the small patches of land it's spinning over give it enough resistance to at least stop it, and that's what I think's happened and why it's slowed.

The next feature that's going to act on it is a small low pressure trough (I've circled it in red, off the NC/SC/GA coast - I've ciricled it in red here):

sep2map.png.f50f0d0e77251ab7eaa53e622ffd1e1c.png

Dorian will start moving N/NE toward this trough today, although slowly.  Timing is critical... if those highs NW of the trough can push it a bit SE Dorian might steer a bit more off coast.  If those highs go slow or weaken, Dorian might stick near or (worse of course) past the coast inland.   There are lots of things mixing together to push/pull this thing, and no one can say exactly how they'll shake out.

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6 minutes ago, Hate said:

I guess the Atlantic received the memo that it's the peak of the hurricane season.

two_atl_2d0.png

2 (as posted above) won't get too strong, and will dive well south of Texas, might affect S. Texas with some rain.  Not a worrier.
3 is kinda high in the Atlantic, they almost always turn N/E there, and that one's forecast to.
1 is worth watching, fur shore...

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24 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:
2 hours ago, 6th Street said:
Is there going to be anything left of the Bahamas after this? The storm is basically stalled out there

 

Unless it's a concrete structure...I'm gonna guess no. Just hope the people have good structural safety and the death total is low

So you are saying no more Fyre Fest housing?

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3 hours ago, Jhawk said:

I’ve been to Freeport. Place looks like it’s been hit by many hurricanes. Total shithole except for a few beaches. 

15 years ago we stayed at a nice resort on Our Lacaya Beach for our son’s wedding. The area was still trying to recover from hurricane damage that occurred a year or two before.

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1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:
2 hours ago, 6th Street said:
Is there going to be anything left of the Bahamas after this? The storm is basically stalled out there

 

Unless it's a concrete structure...I'm gonna guess no. Just hope the people have good structural safety and the death total is low

Referring back to my trip to Freeport, lot of concrete structures. The problem is everything in and around them gets destroyed and they get abandoned. Then you just have an abandoned spray painted shithole concrete structure that grass and trees are wildly growing in and around. Outside of the beach I was at for a day the place was seriously miserable looking. 

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5 hours ago, phdhorn said:

The first models had Harvey staying way south and making landfall in Central America.  In fact, up to 72 hours before it even made landfall in Texas, almost no one was giving it much thought... it was supposed to be a weak storm that flamed out mildly somewhere around Belize/Costa Rica.

So those early models were, shall we say, a tad off.


As for the Bahamas, it's quite possible that this storm will permanently alter the shape of a few of those islands enough to force map updates.

Sure, but I don't think that's analogous to the situation we're in now, with a fully developed storm.

I'm thinking more about things like this NHC statement just before Harvey made landfall as a major hurricane, while anticipating a similar breakdown in steering currents:

Quote

The initial motion is 325/6, a little slower than before. The eye of Harvey should continue this general motion for the next several hours, which would bring it inland over southeastern Texas. After 12 h or so, the hurricane should become embedded in an area of weak steering currents and become nearly stationary. The track guidance is in good agreement that Harvey will move slowly through at least 72 h, and the new forecast track shows a slow cyclonic loop during that time. After 72 h, an equally slow motion toward the north or northeast appears likely.

I remember seeing it drift northwest towards San Antonio, wondering if the city could withstand low-end Cat 1 wind speeds.  But even local meteorologists never even mentioned it as a possibility.

 

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1 hour ago, Welch said:

I remember seeing it drift northwest towards San Antonio, wondering if the city could withstand low-end Cat 1 wind speeds.  But even local meteorologists never even mentioned it as a possibility.

 

I remember being a little scared about Rita.  That one was barreling NW up the Gulf straight into the Corpus area, and looked to be moving at about 15 mph or faster up 37 and curve right above the Austin/San Marcos corridor.  I was a little scared because if you get a Cat 5 or strong 4 and it moves at a good clip (and can even speed up once on land), even 150 miles inland, at that speed the hurricane, even while breaking up, would still be able to pack 100 mph winds at its core some 8 hours later.

Rita turned at the last minute and made a hard right up the upper Texas coast and laid waste to a good part of Beaumont, while we got virtually nothing.  Same to a lesser degree with Ike.  But for a few hours about a day before Rita's landfall, I was seriously considering boarding up and leaving.  90-100 mph winds (w/sustained gusts to 130) are not something I'd like to ride out.

Austin and points along 35 are not immune to severe hurricane destruction, although it's not nearly as likely as the coast (and of course Austin is vulnerable to copious rain and flooding with the right storm).  But under the right conditions (storm strength, speed, direction), we could suffer up to low Cat 3 damage, which is pretty bad.

Added:  Harvey came pretty close to devastating the Austin area.. it was moving at us with all that rain, and of course was moving very slow and stalled a bit.  If you remember, Harvey's most NW point was Bastrop - a mere 25 miles from Austin's eastern suburbs.  We saw what damage and flooding it did to Bastrop, a relatively small town... if all that rain had come just another 45 minutes NW, Austin's damage might have been in ten figures.  I remember sweating it out wondering if Harvey was going to pick up again and continue its movement, but it kind of stalled, then went a bit south, then finally NE out of Texas - sparing Austin by the thinnest of margins.

Edited by phdhorn
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Holy fuck! 

Part of me wants to be there on the third floor of a concrete building with 500 gallons of water, 500 MREs, several cases of canned stew and soup, and some meat for a grill when it all passes. A case of liquor. Ten cases of beer. 

I'd distribute most of the water and MREs. Maybe have a big BBQ for me and the survivors when the sun comes out to improve morale.

The good deeds would make me feel better about my desire for disaster thrills porn.

I hope were loading navy amphibious ships with food, water, necessities, and whatever may be needed after an island goes under water. They're going to need it.

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Man, I'm used to being pretty comfortable with knowing what to look for in these storms -- living on the Gulf Coast for 50 years, I hadn't realized how much I'd absorbed subconsciously about the timing and directional trends of storms out in the Gulf. Living in North Carolina, it's a whole other ball of wax, and I don't know which locals to trust, either. There's freakout queens worrying that power will be out for 2 weeks because of falling trees, and others who tell me that we're not liable to get more than a few hours of 35 mph wind, if even that much, out of this thing. It's not like they've got short memories, either. Fran tore the shit out of Cape Fear back in the late 90s, and they've had plenty of others.

Here in the Triangle, though, my expectation is that we'll just be spectators. If I'm wrong, hey, maybe land prices will come down and I can get my farm for a steal.

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1 hour ago, BLKNSTY said:

That video was taken 8 hours ago...wonder if they're still with us. 

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1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

I remember being a little scared about Rita.  That one was barreling NW up the Gulf straight into the Corpus area, and looked to be moving at about 15 mph or faster up 37 and curve right above the Austin/San Marcos corridor.  I was a little scared because if you get a Cat 5 or strong 4 and it moves at a good clip (and can even speed up once on land), even 150 miles inland, at that speed the hurricane, even while breaking up, would still be able to pack 100 mph winds at its core some 8 hours later.

Rita turned at the last minute and made a hard right up the upper Texas coast and laid waste to a good part of Beaumont, while we got virtually nothing.  Same to a lesser degree with Ike.  But for a few hours about a day before Rita's landfall, I was seriously considering boarding up and leaving.  90-100 mph winds (w/sustained gusts to 130) are not something I'd like to ride out.

Austin and points along 35 are not immune to severe hurricane destruction, although it's not nearly as likely as the coast (and of course Austin is vulnerable to copious rain and flooding with the right storm).  But under the right conditions (storm strength, speed, direction), we could suffer up to low Cat 3 damage, which is pretty bad.

Added:  Harvey came pretty close to devastating the Austin area.. it was moving at us with all that rain, and of course was moving very slow and stalled a bit.  If you remember, Harvey's most NW point was Bastrop - a mere 25 miles from Austin's eastern suburbs.  We saw what damage and flooding it did to Bastrop, a relatively small town... if all that rain had come just another 45 minutes NW, Austin's damage might have been in ten figures.  I remember sweating it out wondering if Harvey was going to pick up again and continue its movement, but it kind of stalled, then went a bit south, then finally NE out of Texas - sparing Austin by the thinnest of margins.

 Austin/San Antonio or basically anyone from San Antonio to Waco along I-35 is very vulenerable to tornados spawn off by a landfalling storm under the right circumstances which means they  basically barrel on west or west northwest bound  track and don't do what Harvey did which is hang around the coastal areas.    In fact, many of the storms that hit the coast in 50's, 60' and 70's caused havoc in that part of the state as well.   And of course landfalling storms have made it up to that part of the state and stalled  which caused some memorable flooding events.  More so than the rain received in the coastal areas from the same storm.

I was a kid  in 1980 when Hurricane Allen hit the coast and that storm was a monster.   The cloud shield basically filled up the entire Gulf of Mexico and it was a Cat 5 coming across the Yucatan Peninsula.  Evacuations were ordered from Galveston to  Brownsville because of the size of the storm which if we had to do that today with the growth in all the coastal areas and inland,  it would make the Rita and Ike evacuations look like chicken feed.   Fortunately it stalled out in the Gulf and weakened to a Cat 3 before landfall and the eye went over the King Ranch where only cows, deer, rattlesnakes,  and a few ranch hands lived and catastrophic damage was avoided in Corpus and the RGV.    We evacuated to Waco and stayed with some family and I do recall we had tornado warnings blaring out on TV as the storm made it's way inland.   

If Harvey had not slowed down once it hit inland, it possibly could have done some significant wind damage to the San Antonio area and in fact if I recall, some forecasters feared such a scenario and were even advising maybe not evacuating to San Antonio.   I look at some of the damage done inland around the Refugio area were the storm slowed down and stalled to see what could have been for at least some the San Antonio metro area.   Being almost 50 miles inland didn't do much to minimize the damage there and I hope it was a wake up call to some of think you just have to live a certain distance inland to avoid the catastrophic winds.   Not so by a long shot.  

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On a call today.  30% of the gas stations in FL are out of fuel at this point and that number is expected to climb.
They got lots of gas in Tampa and Canaveral and are having FHP escort the trucks to replenish the stations. Only 30% out of gas is pretty good. Lots of gas stations have emergency generators so can still pump when elec is out. Lines were bad a couple of days ago. When I was out yesterday lines wern't bad. Only peeps in lines now are dumb yankee noobs who don't have a fucking clue.

Local news in Orlando have gone to all evacuate or DIE! 24 hours mode.

They just moved the cone farther east. Good shit.

Anyway I'm ready.

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1 hour ago, Nueces River Rat said:

 Austin/San Antonio or basically anyone from San Antonio to Waco along I-35 is very vulenerable to tornados spawn off by a landfalling storm under the right circumstances which means they  basically barrel on west or west northwest bound  track and don't do what Harvey did which is hang around the coastal areas.    In fact, many of the storms that hit the coast in 50's, 60' and 70's caused havoc in that part of the state as well.   And of course landfalling storms have made it up to that part of the state and stalled  which caused some memorable flooding events.  More so than the rain received in the coastal areas from the same storm.

I was a kid  in 1980 when Hurricane Allen hit the coast and that storm was a monster.   The cloud shield basically filled up the entire Gulf of Mexico and it was a Cat 5 coming across the Yucatan Peninsula.  Evacuations were ordered from Galveston to  Brownsville because of the size of the storm which if we had to do that today with the growth in all the coastal areas and inland,  it would make the Rita and Ike evacuations look like chicken feed.   Fortunately it stalled out in the Gulf and weakened to a Cat 3 before landfall and the eye went over the King Ranch where only cows, deer, rattlesnakes,  and a few ranch hands lived and catastrophic damage was avoided in Corpus and the RGV.    We evacuated to Waco and stayed with some family and I do recall we had tornado warnings blaring out on TV as the storm made it's way inland.   

If Harvey had not slowed down once it hit inland, it possibly could have done some significant wind damage to the San Antonio area and in fact if I recall, some forecasters feared such a scenario and were even advising maybe not evacuating to San Antonio.   I look at some of the damage done inland around the Refugio area were the storm slowed down and stalled to see what could have been for at least some the San Antonio metro area.   Being almost 50 miles inland didn't do much to minimize the damage there and I hope it was a wake up call to some of think you just have to live a certain distance inland to avoid the catastrophic winds.   Not so by a long shot.  

Yup. re Harvey I didn’t leave Port A until almost noon the day it hit. Ended up evacuating to South Padre because I wanted to avoid the potential rain in San Antonio or Austin. The weather down there was great and we got a cheap hotel on the beach, but it sucked watching the news and seeing what was happening at home.

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Yup. re Harvey I didn’t leave Port A until almost noon the day it hit. Ended up evacuating to South Padre because I wanted to avoid the potential rain in San Antonio or Austin. The weather down there was great and we got a cheap hotel on the beach, but it sucked watching the news and seeing what was happening at home.

Yes I should’ve gone south bound as well.
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8 hours ago, tjhooker said:

I'm sure it is absolutely beautiful right now in the Keys.  The media is trying their best to make this US miss as if it is going to hit the US.  There will be some beach erosion. The horror! 

Go fuck yourself. Seriously.

I still don’t have a home, 2 years after Harvey and a bunch of my friends lost literally everything they owned.

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