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CR: COVID-19 --Political Talk


Mrs Whiggins

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8 minutes ago, brakeman said:

 

Sure, I like to point out that covid officially got started on or around St. Patrick's day 2020 in the USA. This was the day I went to Home Depot and got my 1st respirator.

You said it had been a year or so but 18 months is the correct answer. 

you missed that the fucknuts have been saying it's been delta for a year or so. 

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Delta has only been dominate for three months in the U.S.

July 7, 2021 -- The contagious Delta variant has become the dominant form of the coronavirus in the United States, now accounting for more than 51% of COVID-19 cases in the country, according to new CDC data updated on Tuesday. The variant, also known as B. 1.617.Jul 7, 2021

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1 hour ago, brakeman said:

Delta has only been dominate for three months in the U.S.

 

Jesus Christ, that's the whole point of my post.  The new right-wing false flag bullshit is that we've been dealing with delta for virtually the entire pandemic.  It's obviously not true, but for some reason the pinhead brigade seems to think that saying otherwise is a "gotcha".

Let me know if I need to spell it out any more clearly for you.

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3 hours ago, PsychMike said:

With these vaccines, we have built a mighty wall against Covid-19. That wall is a bit leakier in the face of Delta. How best to fix the problem is an important question that urgently requires answers. But we are not being flooded by vaccinated breakthrough cases. We have enough time to gather the information we need to act smartly and achieve the best systemic outcomes that take all of these considerations into account. We don’t need to scramble and throw up another wall without the right safety checks in place. That’s how people get hurt.

 

We, I mean, the CDC, stopped collecting data on breakthrough infections in May. We should have been capturing the data all along the way. 

I follow Faust and like his perspective, but we have to be more fucking agile. We have multiple layers of safety checks in place. If he has real safety concerns he should lay them out, otherwise he is just doing his drama thing.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

we have to be more fucking agile

The entire nation needs to become more agile.

The early plans suggested we would be handling outbreaks, not continuing waves sweeping the globe. Contact tracing would identify outbreaks and the CDC Army would sweep in to contain and isolate the infected. So much for that pipe dream.

We live in a tepid pot of Covid stew. And aggy-caliber imbeciles are deep-throating tubes of deworming spunk.

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5 hours ago, brakeman said:

 

Sure, I like to point out that covid officially got started on or around St. Patrick's day 2020 in the USA. This was the day I went to Home Depot and got my 1st respirator.

You said it had been a year or so but 18 months is the correct answer. 

So, you are a special kind of regard.

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3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

 

 

We, I mean, the CDC, stopped collecting data on breakthrough infections in May. We should have been capturing the data all along the way. 

I follow Faust and like his perspective, but we have to be more fucking agile. We have multiple layers of safety checks in place. If he has real safety concerns he should lay them out, otherwise he is just doing his drama thing.  

 

 

Eh, I don’t think he’s wrong and I didn’t get the impression he had serious safety concerns about a booster. I think you are reading into that.

also, why in the fuck am I getting ads at the bottom of the page for Kendra Scott?

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7 hours ago, brakeman said:

Delta has only been dominate for three months in the U.S.

July 7, 2021 -- The contagious Delta variant has become the dominant form of the coronavirus in the United States, now accounting for more than 51% of COVID-19 cases in the country, according to new CDC data updated on Tuesday. The variant, also known as B. 1.617.Jul 7, 2021

 

You can't possibly be this stupid.

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12 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

This is definitely NOT fake news.  This man is an actual critical care doctor in St. Louis. 

 

 

In other words, it’s exactly how Trumpublicans define “Fake News!” Don’t want to hear it, don’t want to know it, therefore it must be false. 

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39 minutes ago, brakeman said:

it's the  rest of you fucksticks,wtf.

It's wild how a majority of olds/boomers are so offended at the idea of wearing a facemask or getting vaccinated. All my boomer coworkers, that are all coincidentally in sales, bitch incessantly about it, and a good chunk of my older family are still acting like it's NBD and that "even if they get sick, they can take ivermectin". 

Maybe COVID is just gonna fix the glitch

Edited by Captainant
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21 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

paywall. Spoiler plz?

 

Spoiler

The C.D.C. reported a terrifying fact in July: Vaccinated people with the Delta variant of the Covid virus carried roughly the same viral load in their noses and throats as unvaccinated people.

The news seemed to suggest that even the vaccinated were highly vulnerable to getting infected and passing the virus to others. Sure enough, stories about vaccinated people getting Covid — so-called breakthrough infections — were all around this summer: at a party in Provincetown, Mass.; among the Chicago Cubs; on Capitol Hill. Delta seemed as if it might be changing everything.

In recent weeks, however, more data has become available, and it suggests that the true picture is less alarming. Yes, Delta has increased the chances of getting Covid for almost everyone. But if you’re vaccinated, a Covid infection is still uncommon, and those high viral loads are not as worrisome as they initially sounded.

How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting Covid? Probably about one in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community.

Or maybe one in 10,000

The estimates here are based on statistics from three places that have reported detailed data on Covid infections by vaccination status: Utah; Virginia; and King County, which includes Seattle, in Washington state. All three are consistent with the idea that about one in 5,000 vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid each day in recent weeks.

The chances are surely higher in the places with the worst Covid outbreaks, like the Southeast. And in places with many fewer cases — like the Northeast, as well as the Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco areas — the chances are lower, probably less than 1 in 10,000. That’s what the Seattle data shows, for example. (These numbers don’t include undiagnosed cases, which are often so mild that people do not notice them and do not pass the virus to anyone else.)

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Here’s one way to think about a one-in-10,000 daily chance: It would take more than three months for the combined risk to reach just 1 percent.

“There’s been a lot of miscommunication about what the risks really are to vaccinated people, and how vaccinated people should be thinking about their lives,” as Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University told my colleague Tara Parker-Pope. (I recommend Tara’s recent Q. and A. on breakthrough infections.)

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For the unvaccinated, of course, the chances of infection are far higher, as Dr. Jeffrey Duchin, the top public-health official in Seattle, has noted. Those chances have also risen much more since Delta began spreading:

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Credit...Source: Washington State Department of Health

Another way to understand the situation is to compare each state’s vaccination rate with its recent daily Covid infection rate. The infection rates in the least vaccinated states are about four times as high as in the most vaccinated states:

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Data as of Sept. 2; cases are the 7-day daily average.Credit...The New York Times

If the entire country had received shots at the same rate as the Northeast or California, the current Delta wave would be a small fraction of its current size. Delta is a problem. Vaccine hesitancy is a bigger problem.

The science, in brief

These numbers help show why the talking point about viral loads was problematic. It was one of those statements that managed to be both true and misleading. Even when the size of the viral loads are similar, the virus behaves differently in the noses and throats of the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.

In an unvaccinated person, a viral load is akin to an enemy army facing little resistance. In a vaccinated person, the human immune system launches a powerful response and tends to prevail quickly — often before the host body gets sick or infects others. That the viral loads were initially similar in size can end up being irrelevant.

I will confess to one bit of hesitation about walking you through the data on breakthrough infections: It’s not clear how much we should be worrying about them. For the vaccinated, Covid resembles the flu and usually a mild one. Society does not grind to a halt over the flu.

In Britain, many people have become comfortable with the current Covid risks. The vaccines make serious illness rare in adults, and the risks to young children are so low that Britain may never recommend that most receive the vaccine. Letting the virus continue to dominate life, on the other hand, has large costs.

“There’s a feeling that finally we can breathe; we can start trying to get back what we’ve lost,” Devi Sridhar, the head of the global public health program at the University of Edinburgh, told The Times.

Image

Theater employees checking vaccination cards as people returned to Broadway last week.Credit...Jutharat Pinyodoonyachet for The New York Times

I know that many Americans feel differently. Our level of Covid anxiety is higher, especially in communities that lean to the left politically. And there is no “correct” response to Covid. Different people respond to risk differently.

But at least one part of the American anxiety does seem to have become disconnected from the facts in recent weeks: the effectiveness of the vaccines. In a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, nearly half of adults judged their “risk of getting sick from the coronavirus” as either moderate or high — even though 75 percent of adults have received at least one shot.

In reality, the risks of getting any version of the virus remain small for the vaccinated, and the risks of getting badly sick remain minuscule.

In Seattle on an average recent day, about one out of every one million vaccinated residents have been admitted to a hospital with Covid symptoms. That risk is so close to zero that the human mind can’t easily process it. My best attempt is to say that the Covid risks for most vaccinated people are of the same order of magnitude as risks that people unthinkingly accept every day, like riding in a vehicle.

The bottom line

Delta really has changed the course of the pandemic. It is far more contagious than earlier versions of the virus and calls for precautions that were not necessary a couple of months ago, like wearing masks in some indoor situations.

But even with Delta, the overall risks for the vaccinated remain extremely small. As Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco, wrote on Friday, “The messaging over the last month in the U.S. has basically served to terrify the vaccinated and make unvaccinated eligible adults doubt the effectiveness of the vaccines.” Neither of those views is warranted.

What about children? I’ll dig into that question in a coming newsletter.

 

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Yes.  I don't have the link handy, but I recall reading a similar argument regarding viral load:  even though the initial load might be similar in a vaccinated and unvaccinated person, the viral load diminishes much quicker in the vaccinated person.  This reduces their chance of spreading the disease, estimated at roughly a 50% lower chance of transmission.

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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yes.  I don't have the link handy, but I recall reading a similar argument regarding viral load:  even though the initial load might be similar in a vaccinated and unvaccinated person, the viral load diminishes much quicker in the vaccinated person.  This reduces their chance of spreading the disease, estimated at roughly a 50% lower chance of transmission.

But you're using logic and real science.   We can't have that.

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So If I'm fully vaccinated with robust protein spike levels and am tall adult with a large head...I can project a larger viral load into public and inflict unnecessary suffering upon unvaxxed adults in my general vicinity? 

Jeez...is there anything I can wear on my large face that would help me not infect my fellow man?  Some simple measure I can take?  

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I’m sure the math checks out, but anecdotally, my social circle has had way more than 1% breakthrough in the past few months. My house is at 100% (July), I know several others within the past month, and a friend’s vaccinated dad died of it just last week.

I’m guessing that I’m at the unlucky end of the bell curve, but it’s really something how your perception can be colored by what you experience — my assumption has been that breakthroughs will be pretty common.

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29 minutes ago, Lobo said:

So If I'm fully vaccinated with robust protein spike levels and am tall adult with a large head...I can project a larger viral load into public and inflict unnecessary suffering upon unvaxxed adults in my general vicinity? 

Jeez...is there anything I can wear on my large face that would help me not infect my fellow man?  Some simple measure I can take?  

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1 hour ago, Mole said:

I’m sure the math checks out, but anecdotally, my social circle has had way more than 1% breakthrough in the past few months. My house is at 100% (July), I know several others within the past month, and a friend’s vaccinated dad died of it just last week.

I’m guessing that I’m at the unlucky end of the bell curve, but it’s really something how your perception can be colored by what you experience — my assumption has been that breakthroughs will be pretty common.

See, I don’t live that kind of statistical approach to risk here because it’s not really descriptive of the specific risk in any one person’s situation. Is the risk of a breakthrough in the abstract 1/10000? Sure, I’ll buy that. 

But if your particular wife works next to an unvaccinated, maskless person infected with Coronavirus at the meatpacking plant, her chances are way higher than 1/10000. And if she gets a breakthrough infection, you are at a much higher risk than even she was at the plant. And if you get it and you are contagious right after her, the rest of your and household are all at a much, much. higher risk. 

I totally agree that vaccinated people need to live our lives. I’m just pointing out that the distribution of outcomes for vaccinated people is not even across the population.
 

 

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@Dontshootrude

Come on over here. You're going to disturb the DT denizens. 

The problem with letting the idiots avoid vaccines is that it causes people to die that otherwise wouldn't. If it were only the vaccine resistant dying I might not be so pissed off about it, but the normal every day BS that kills us is being left untreated because they can't get to them for the idiots in the way.

On your list of vaccine hesitant countries France was pretty close to the US in numbers. What did Macron do? Damn near made it mandatory if you want to be a functioning person. We are having to depend on business requiring its employees to get the reluctant and recalcitrant to get in line.

This was our response in 1919. We didn't have a problem with throwing them in quarantine. Now we have parents ready to zip tie an elementary school principal.

Education ain't gonna work. They absolutely refuse to believe anything contrary to their well thought out research from Randy Rebar that he got from someone on Youtube.

They are the marks in a con. You are going to have an impossible task of educating them out of the con.

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Dontshootrude said:

I don't typically frequent the cloak room, even when I was much more active in this community back when it was on the old scat board.

My personal opinion is that in order to get our vaccination rates jacked up while avoiding a lot of violence we need another round of stimulus that is tied to your vaccination status.  If everyone got $500+ for every household member that can prove vaccination I think you'd see a lot of hesitancy disappear overnight.  We've spent so much money, what's another couple hundred billion to fully crush the pandemic and get our economy back on track?   

I have thought this from the start. Best I can tell from a quick Google search is there are 15% of Americans hesitant about the vaccine. Even if you could get half of them over the line, that would have made a big ass difference. 

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1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

See, I don’t live that kind of statistical approach to risk here because it’s not really descriptive of the specific risk in any one person’s situation. Is the risk of a breakthrough in the abstract 1/10000? Sure, I’ll buy that. 

But if your particular wife works next to an unvaccinated, maskless person infected with Coronavirus at the meatpacking plant, her chances are way higher than 1/10000. And if she gets a breakthrough infection, you are at a much higher risk than even she was at the plant. And if you get it and you are contagious right after her, the rest of your and household are all at a much, much. higher risk. 

I totally agree that vaccinated people need to live our lives. I’m just pointing out that the distribution of outcomes for vaccinated people is not even across the population.
 

 

This.  Had I not traveled after begin vaccinated, it's much less likely I would've gotten my breakthrough infection.  As it stands, I went to a very crowded conference in Chicago where mask usage was less than 25%.  Came back and 5 days later started feeling symptoms.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/09/07/sturgis-covid-delta-variant/

 

Quote

The annual Sturgis motorcycle rally in South Dakota is America’s largest bike rally, a 10-day blowout, with attendance this year exceeding 250,000. It was also a serious pandemic stress test. By bringing together hundreds of thousands of people, Sturgis helps answer a simple yet critically important question: Are we at a point in the pandemic where we can safely stage big-crowd events?

 

 

Quote

If there were a place where this could have happened, it should have been Sturgis. The best data suggests that at least 75 percent of the entire South Dakota population has some degree of immunity against the virus: About half of South Dakotans have immunity because they’ve been infected by covid-19, and about half of the population has been vaccinated — some of whom have already had covid-19 when they got their shot, so there is some overlap between these two groups. South Dakota, despite its middling vaccination rates, probably has among the highest levels of population immunity in the nation, driven largely by horrifying winter outbreaks.

 

Quote

That’s what makes Sturgis an important test. If it had gone off without big spikes in covid cases, it would have provided strong evidence that this level of population immunity — around 75 percent — would allow us to get back to the way we did things in 2019. But unfortunately, that’s not what happened. In the weeks since the rally began in early August, infection numbers have shot up more than 600 percent in South Dakota. We can expect to see big increases in other states, too, since bikers returned home from the event. Last year, after Sturgis, we saw massive outbreaks across the Dakotas, Wyoming, Indiana, even Nevada. Much of the region was aflame because of Sturgis, probably causing thousands of deaths.

 

 

Spoiler

Does the large Sturgis outbreak this year mean we can’t stage large gatherings? The answer affects things far beyond bike rallies: music festivals, state fairs, large concerts and so much more. The good news is that the outbreak doesn’t have to mean we rule all of that out. We can begin to get things back to a new normal. And here we can look to other examples where high levels of vaccinations or other tools helped prevent a lot of illness and death.

The first example is what happened in Provincetown, Mass., over the July 4 weekend. Provincetown unfortunately also led to a spike in cases — but the infection numbers peaked quickly, dwindled and were gone three weeks later. There were very few hospitalizations and no deaths. Why? Because most of the people in Provincetown were vaccinated. That may be an indicator that population immunity from vaccinations is better and more protective than immunity from infections.

Consider also this summer’s Lollapalooza music festival in Chicago. All those attending were required to provide proof of vaccination or a negative coronavirus test. Anyone unvaccinated was required to wear masks throughout, even though the festival was outdoors. And those attending were asked to accept a “Lollapalooza Fan Health Pledge” promising they had not tested positive or been exposed to covid within two weeks or experienced any covid symptoms within 48 hours. The result? Of the hundreds of thousands of fans who attended the festival, only a few hundred have subsequently tested positive — and it is unclear whether any of them were infected at Lollapalooza.

Eighteen months into the pandemic, we’ve learned that outdoor gatherings are reasonably safe — it’s the indoor activities that invariably follow that are deadly. At Sturgis, it is unlikely that the outdoor bike rallies were a problem. Most of the spread likely happened in the evenings, when people crowded into bars and restaurants, most unvaccinated, all unmasked. Large gatherings that work on keeping indoor spaces safe through vaccinations, masking, ventilation and other techniques can keep the entire gathering safer.

Over the past year, every time we have tried to defy the virus by scorning precautions, the virus has won, and people have suffered and died: significant outbreaks, a lot of hospitalizations, too many deaths. Large gatherings like rallies, festivals and fairs are the biggest test of what our society can do in a pandemic.

The simple interpretation of the large outbreak after Sturgis is that big gatherings are just not possible during a pandemic. But that is the wrong lesson. It’s important for Americans to find ways to come together. So we should ask how we can make gatherings safer.

Here, the pandemic playbook is straightforward: Ensure you have a highly vaccinated population. Verify people’s vaccination status. Require rapid and frequent testing, especially for the unvaccinated. Improve indoor air quality, and use masking intermittently when needed.

None of these are difficult to achieve. And none of them should be particularly inconvenient. If we do all that, we can safely get back to the things we love and the events that bring us together, like music festivals, concerts and motorcycle rallies.

 

Edited by Francisco 2.0
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2 hours ago, Dontshootrude said:

I don't typically frequent the cloak room, even when I was much more active in this community back when it was on the old scat board.

My personal opinion is that in order to get our vaccination rates jacked up while avoiding a lot of violence we need another round of stimulus that is tied to your vaccination status.  If everyone got $500+ for every household member that can prove vaccination I think you'd see a lot of hesitancy disappear overnight.  We've spent so much money, what's another couple hundred billion to fully crush the pandemic and get our economy back on track?   

If people are willing to inject themselves with horse paste to make a point, $500 won’t make a fuck.

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14 minutes ago, Dontshootrude said:

In some cases. But it would convert a lot of people. Money talks. 

Truth.  You'll find that a lot of this bullshit yapping about spoons sticking to your forehead and other nonsense evaporate when the public benefits, all refundable tax credits, and deductions are tied to ability to prove up vaccination. 

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re: money and the like. if money can provide as cover for someone to still be acceptable in their social circles, then yes i think that can work

I think - as @cactusflinthead is reminding us above - educating them out of the con is probably not possible. its a social and emotional issue to try and workaround

hope you homies are well. down here in Oz we still have zero rights as fully vaccinated people. vaxed or unvaxed - we are all herded into our homes and scared of everything. fucking madness down here with all levels of this shitty government. 

 

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Carrot or stick. Don't care. 

If it takes giving a couple of hundred to everyone like donuts after giving blood. Get it going. 

I've been on record around here that if you don't want your kid to be vaxxed for the same stuff as the rest of us because you have some objection other than medical then you don't get to have a license.

for anything. No plumbing, fishing, driving, hunting, flying, hair cutting, doctor, banker, lawyer ANYTHING that requires a license you are now blacklisted until you relent. Go live in the fucking boonies off the grid. Take the money or don't, but everyone that can medically withstand it gets stuck. 

I give absolutely no fucks about your moral, ethical or any other objections. Get out.

Full on Levitical. Get your ass out of the camp sicko. 

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