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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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2 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

 

Man you guys really are some bitches. How about you guys stop "hoping" and "sighing" and actually get in the trenches. Here, I even did the work for y'all....below are phonebanking opportunities targeting PA. We're in crunch time, sign up or shut up.

 

Man I already got enough people blowing my phone, I don't need you assholes calling me up too now. If it makes anybody feel better, the previously Trumpyish pockets of my suburbs are sporting Biden signs these days.

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On 9/8/2020 at 8:32 AM, SubliminalHorn said:

Well of course the republicans make it difficult to even register. Having to print out a form and mail it in. I don’t even have a printer, but we expect unregistered, likely low income citizens to have a printer and mail it off? It’s almost as if republicans don’t want more people voting 

Actually, there is an app and website https://register2vote.org/ where you can go for yourself or someone else, fill out the base info and it will tell you if that person is in fact registered and to what address.  If not registered, it will take the given data and mail an application to the prospective voter.  All they need to do is complete it and send it in to their county clerk or election administrator.   It will be pre-addressed for that.     

2 hours ago, 6th Street said:

I think more effective than cold calling would be to set up voter registration drives and arrange transportation to the polls on Election Day via buses 

We are trying to start a program to where neighbors who can drive will try to get their neighbors who can't to ride with them to EARLY VOTING.   IF we wait until election day it's going to be a madhouse.   We are also looking to enlist some church buses to help with this.  

But you are right, the persuasive part of the campaign is past, now the cold calls are only trying to determine if someone might be a democrat that doesn't vote in primaries, or potentially votes R in primaries.

Many rural counties have no D candidates, so if you need to vote for a neighbor or friend for county commissioner, then you have to vote R in the primary.  But that won't stop you voting for whoever you want in the general.   Since there are no Democratic candidates for the most part, then those races are won in the primary, and votes for those neighbors and friends aren't as vital.

 

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14 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Have any of y’all done this before?  How does it work?  Is it safe?

Yes. it's safe. They use a dialer set up and your number doesn't go out.  I did it for Beto and the TDP.   I can't say what the nature of the phonebank is for, but if it's trying to clear up rolls on voters with unknown preferences, then you might get some rude responses.  If it's more a GOTV call, then not so much.    You probably will get less than 10% who answer.  

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8 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

This article from Politico seems to say Trump campaign pulling TV advertising is by design, and not because because the death star is imploding.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/06/trumpyoutube-election-comeback-408576

Quote

In 2016, Donald Trump’s campaign cracked the code on Facebook as a campaign tool — gaining an advantage over Hillary Clinton that was little noticed at the time but helped propel him to victory.

This time, the president is betting big on YouTube.

Most campaigns merely post their television spots on the site. Trump's YouTube channel, however, is a voluminous and unique collection of news, campaign ads and original web shows. Negative ads like "Don't let them ruin America" are paired with livestreamed series such as "Black Voices for Trump: Real Talk Online!" and "The Right View." The campaign uploads and then tests hundreds of short videos of the president speaking, while also posting news clips about things like the jobs report and the recent Serbia-Kosovo deal.

As Trump’s reelection effort pulled back on television advertising over the past month, it is pouring money and staff time into Google’s video platform. The campaign and its joint fund with the Republican National Committee have spent over $65 million on YouTube and Google — about $30 million of it since July. Joe Biden and the Democratic National Committee joint committee, by comparison, have spent about $33 million on YouTube and Google during the entire campaign. (Google doesn’t provide an exact breakdown of the spending, but the Trump campaign said most of the money was for YouTube as opposed to search ads.)

With Biden ahead in the polls and quickly catching up in overall fundraising, Trump’s campaign sees YouTube as a potential soft spot in the Democrat's effort and is trying to press its advantage. Trump's campaign has also devoted significant resources to generating organic content on YouTube — regular videos uploaded by supporters as opposed to ones it pays to promote. In August, the campaign posted nearly 900 videos, while the Biden campaign posted just over 100.

Many digital strategists say YouTube's algorithm is more likely to recommend to viewers channels that are updated regularly with new content. “The name of the game with algorithms is to flood the zones,” said Eric Wilson, a veteran Republican digital operative. “The Trump campaign is putting on a master class in advertising according to algorithms — it just rewards the side that will produce more content.”

Still, the Trump campaign says it sees YouTube as an underappreciated campaign asset, much like it viewed Facebook four years ago. YouTube is the most popular online platform in the country: More than 9 of 10 Americans age 18 to 29 uses it, according to Pew surveys, a higher share than Instagram, Snapchat or Facebook. And the Trump campaign said it has seen engagement with its YouTube channel rise significantly among 25- to 34-year-olds.

Trump campaign advisers said Facebook was almost always a better campaign tool than YouTube in 2016 given its powerful targeting abilities and the lack of public scrutiny around them. But as Democrats have caught up on Facebook and the platform's every move is dissected, Trump officials say YouTube has been more effective at times than Facebook at mobilization, fundraising and persuasion in 2020. YouTube has also become increasingly influential force on the internet generally.

That’s why the campaign has ramped up its spending so dramatically on YouTube after spending less than $10 million on it in 2016.

Still, Republican and Democratic strategists disagree over whether the expensive gambit will work. Some Democrats see the frenetic activity on YouTube as more Kabuki theater rather than anything meaningful for November. Other Democratic digital strategists say the power of YouTube shouldn’t be underestimated but they argue that Trump’s investment comes from a place a weakness.

“The conditions on the ground — record unemployment and 180,000 Covid deaths — strongly favor Biden. So the Trump campaign has to create a more positive narrative to keep their supporters engaged and energized,” said Nu Wexler, a Democratic strategist who has worked at Google, Facebook and Twitter. "YouTube hype videos is one way to do that, though their content is completely at odds with reality.”

The Trump campaign's YouTube strategy is also the latest example of it becoming its own news publisher, bypassing the established media. Many of the campaign’s videos are short news clips or snippets of the press secretary’s daily briefing.

Trump's focus on the platform was apparent during the party conventions. The campaign spent millions to dominate YouTube's homepage during all four days of the Democratic convention. Its ad blitz drew 40 million views to five new ads, and 93 percent of the watch-time came from nonsubscribers. The campaign told POLITICO that its videos had 509 million views over the past four months.

Trump's campaign was also more aggressive in how it used the platform. Whereas Democrats uploaded the former vice president’s entire convention speech, Trump's campaign spliced his into 28 clips, each posted to YouTube. Republicans did the same thing with nearly every other major speech, while Democrats uploaded their speeches in full.

A Trump campaign official said the post-heavy approach is important for testing, and argued that the increased volume is better for users and for sharing. The Biden campaign countered that Biden's full speech had more than 500,000 views while the 28 clips cumulatively had less than 100,000. The Biden team said they didn't put money behind their video to boost it.

Biden campaign officials downplayed the notion that Trump has outfoxed them on YouTube. “I don't see that as a silver bullet,” said Patrick Bonsignore, Biden's director of paid media. "It feels to me like their programs are more heavily weighted towards the direct response and fundraising side of things," rather than persuasion. In other words, communicating to Trump’s base rather than expanding it.

The recent investment has made Trump’s YouTube following the largest of any politician in the country, surpassing Bernie Sanders and Barack Obama, who had larger followings until a few months ago. Since April, the Trump campaign’s YouTube channel has grown from about 327,000 subscribers to nearly a million. Biden’s campaign, which spent a negligible amount on YouTube during the primary, has gone from 32,000 subscribers to 173,000. The campaign has been doing more on the platform recently and premiered a "socially distanced conversation" between Biden and Kamala Harris last week that had over 170,000 views.

Aware of the gap and the unlikeliness of closing it by Election Day, however, Biden’s campaign has been trying to appear on other popular social channels to leverage their large followings. Earlier this week, Harris made a cameo in a “Verzuz” battle between Brandy and Monica that streamed on Instagram and had over 4 million views. The Biden team also takes pride in the advertising it has been doing on less discussed platforms like Hulu and Pandora, where it believes it has an edge.

“I feel really confident that our program is more [varied] in terms of the number of places that we're running ads,” Bonsignore said. “That [YouTube] playbook is certainly not the whole game.”

The Biden campaign also has some backup on YouTube courtesy of the Priorities USA super PAC. It has spent an additional $5 million on the platform, much more than any Trump-affiliated super PAC so far.

Even with the tens of millions being thrown into the video platform, Republican and Democratic consultants are divided on how much of it will matter. Google last year began limiting political advertisers’ ability to target audiences: They can do so by age, gender and location, but are barred from using political affiliation or voter records to identify potential supporters.

Also, YouTube subscribers also haven’t always translated into wins at the ballot box — Sanders trounced Biden on YouTube, only to fall to him in the primary.

Still, the Trump campaign has already signaled it will maintain a robust presence on YouTube through November. The campaign has already reserved the most expensive digital ad space in the country on Election Day: YouTube’s homepage.

Long article, but makes a lot of sense. With a large percentage of the population only streaming shows, TV ads don't reach as big of an audience as before.

I think it's a smart move because who of us have never gone down the YouTube rabbit hole? I don't think it moves the needle for the people who already know who they'll vote for, but will it make a difference to the undecided folks between their 40s and 60s that get lost in Youtube?

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7 hours ago, bolverk said:

Time Magazine apparently.

Kelly Ferro (Intuitive Medium) https://www.facebook.com/kelly.a.ferro

Edit:

Marcella Frank (Truth Seeker) https://www.facebook.com/marcellaefrank

Tina Arthur https://www.facebook.com/tina.arthur9694

Why has this crowd latched onto pedophilia as their cause? Sure everyone is opposed to it but it’s weird how this is their thing. Did it all start with that DC pizza parlor lie?

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1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Why has this crowd latched onto pedophilia as their cause? Sure everyone is opposed to it but it’s weird how this is their thing. Did it all start with that DC pizza parlor lie?

We have some pizzagaters here. Maybe they can provide some insight. Oh wait they will just pretend they were “just asking questions”.

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Why has this crowd latched onto pedophilia as their cause? Sure everyone is opposed to it but it’s weird how this is their thing. Did it all start with that DC pizza parlor lie?

a combination of algorithms, people who are trying to make sense of an insane world, and people who care but don't have that funneled into the right channels

https://www.marketplace.org/shows/make-me-smart-with-kai-and-molly/is-it-too-late-to-stop-qanon/

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4 hours ago, Superhero said:

 

This article from Politico seems to say Trump campaign pulling TV advertising is by design, and not because because the death star is imploding.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/06/trumpyoutube-election-comeback-408576

Long article, but makes a lot of sense. With a large percentage of the population only streaming shows, TV ads don't reach as big of an audience as before.

I think it's a smart move because who of us have never gone down the YouTube rabbit hole? I don't think it moves the needle for the people who already know who they'll vote for, but will it make a difference to the undecided folks between their 40s and 60s that get lost in Youtube?

You know who watches terrestrial TV? Old people.  Who also happen to vote.

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We all know and have talked about and agree that if the Dem's win, but it's not a runaway on election night, it's going to make for funny business and built-in asterisks and crazy theories and people being dug-in on it being unfair.

But I'm starting to think the opposite is true as well. If Trump squeaks by, by some miracle, I think we are going to have an equal number from the other side of the aisle just not be able to understand it or accept it, in the same "melted brain" way.

I guess what I'm saying is, in 8 weeks or so, we are headed to a collision of two hyperloop trains doing 1000 mph type train-wreck and if we thought we've seen chaos and riots and fear-mongering, we ain't seen nothin' yet, baby.

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9 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

We all know and have talked about and agree that if the Dem's win, but it's not a runaway on election night, it's going to make for funny business and built-in asterisks and crazy theories and people being dug-in on it being unfair.

But I'm starting to think the opposite is true as well. If Trump squeaks by, by some miracle, I think we are going to have an equal number from the other side of the aisle just not be able to understand it or accept it, in the same "melted brain" way.

I guess what I'm saying is, in 8 weeks or so, we are headed to a collision of two hyperloop trains doing 1000 mph type train-wreck and if we thought we've seen chaos and riots and fear-mongering, we ain't seen nothin' yet, baby.

I fucking wonder why people won't accept Trump if he "squeaks by, by some miracle." God you are the worst. 

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3 minutes ago, trauma babe said:

I fucking wonder why people won't accept Trump if he "squeaks by, by some miracle." God you are the worst. 

I mean, he squeaked by, by some miracle in 2016. It's not as if there isn't precedent for this to happen outside of a bunch of tanks and army men and us becoming a dictatorship or something. And I'm not sure what personal vendetta you have or when or where I pee'd in your Cheerios, but you seem to read in to everything as some sort of attack on what is good and just or something. My goodness, even I'm worried what's going to happen once Ringo runs this outfit.

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5 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

I mean, he squeaked by, by some miracle in 2016. It's not as if there isn't precedent for this to happen outside of a bunch of tanks and army men and us becoming a dictatorship or something. And I'm not sure what personal vendetta you have or when or where I pee'd in your Cheerios, but you seem to read in to everything as some sort of attack on what is good and just or something. My goodness, even I'm worried what's going to happen once Ringo runs this outfit.

Kinda Shake-weighty

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18 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

 

MN: 50-41

WI: 48-43

NV: 46-42

NH: 45-42

People were expecting these polls to either show major tightening or Biden landslide. Instead, with the exception of NH, it's pretty much exactly what other polls have showed and very consistent with a Biden +7 national lead. Mostly just previously non-committal Republicans buying into POTUS' messaging and coming home to Team Red (as they always were going to), but true swing voters/indies/dems not buying it. Trump keeps bumping into ceilings around 43% and just ain't landing any new voters outside of the ones he already had.

Cohn himself said the NH is not what he was expecting and mentioned he'd never polled there before and found ti challenging and wouldn't be surprised with a different result next time. Regardless, NH was razor-thin margin in '16 and can't be taken for granted. I just have trouble imagining Trump doing better in a New England state than last time.

Reaction from all the other polling nerds on Twitter has basically been "meh, no shockers." None of the forecast models or betting markets shifted in any noticeable manner.

You can almost put MN in the "Safe Dem" category for now. Averaging like Biden +8 the last few weeks. 

WI seems to have settled into a +5 or +6 race. Biden's in the driver's seat but he and his running mate need to keep making appearances there and the campaign needs to keep the airwaves flooded. 

NV is hard to poll and consistently underestimate the Democratic vote there b/c, as Nate pointed out, the state's hispanic voters (see also "culinary union") tend to remain "undecided" until closer to election or simply can't be reached by pollsters. Clinton won by 2.5 despite Trump having a 0.8 lead according to RCP. 2018 Gov and Senate races were both off by 5. Biden's +4.5 in the only 2 recent polls.

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13 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Why has this crowd latched onto pedophilia as their cause? Sure everyone is opposed to it but it’s weird how this is their thing. Did it all start with that DC pizza parlor lie?

They had to come up with something that seemed like Trump would never be a part of.  It's a horrible crime against the innocent.   It's like accusing people of being communists.  It's a hot topic button that everyone fears or abhors like MS-13.  

And people love to suspect the worst of everyone else, so it's an easy thing to label people with simple accusations.  Especially to a gullible crowd looking for any justification for their conspiracy theories.  

But Trump and his association with Epstein, the teen beauty pageants and now the accusations of Cohen's daughter sure seem to show he has at least a predilection to ephebophilia (attraction to 15-19 year olds).  

 

 

 

 

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17 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Why has this crowd latched onto pedophilia as their cause? Sure everyone is opposed to it but it’s weird how this is their thing. Did it all start with that DC pizza parlor lie?

Because the whole thing was cooked up to distract people from the fact that trump was good buddies with pedo Epstein and trump raped underage girls as well, just not nearly as many as Jeffrey did. 
 

Just like what pizzagate was for although the trump raping underage girls and Epstein  story never gained any traction in 2016 so pizzagate turned out to be unnecessary.

That’s why.

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1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

Because the whole thing was cooked up to distract people from the fact that trump was good buddies with pedo Epstein and trump raped underage girls as well, just not nearly as many as Jeffrey did. 
 

Just like what pizzagate was for although the trump raping underage girls and Epstein  story never gained any traction in 2016 so pizzagate turned out to be unnecessary.

That’s why.

Every accusation is a confession, example eleventy-billion.

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2 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Yep. The trump party is basically the same thing as putin and the Russians. They lie about everything and always accuse their enemies of doing exactly what they themselves are doing. 

Yep. It’s effective with lazy dummies who want to follow their gut. Every legit criticism of their own candidate can be discarded as nothing worse than what the other guy does. Of course, the last part is based entirely on unfounded lies. But they don’t give a shit and don’t have any incentive to figure that out because it would only make them feel bad about supporting a lying piece of shit.

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Long article, but makes a lot of sense. With a large percentage of the population only streaming shows, TV ads don't reach as big of an audience as before.
I think it's a smart move because who of us have never gone down the YouTube rabbit hole? I don't think it moves the needle for the people who already know who they'll vote for, but will it make a difference to the undecided folks between their 40s and 60s that get lost in Youtube?

I’ve seen quite a few of Trump ads on YouTube.
I’m not the target audience, which makes it a little weird that I see so many of them. I looked at some left wing blogger talking about the Dem candidate I’m supporting, and got a Trump ad. Whatever targeting algorithm they use, it casts a huge fucking net. And the ad is this completely over the top, poorly produced, nonsense with Harris cackling as a city burns in the background. So I don’t think it is a good ad targeting even swing voters.
Maybe Biden is under-utilizing the platform, but it doesn’t appear to me that Trump is using it efficiently at all.
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1 minute ago, Tuco said:


I’ve seen quite a few of Trump ads on YouTube.
I’m not the target audience, which makes it a little weird that I see so many of them. I looked at some left wing blogger talking about the Dem candidate I’m supporting, and got a Trump ad. Whatever targeting algorithm they use, it casts a huge fucking net. And the ad is this completely over the top, poorly produced, nonsense with Harris cackling as a city burns in the background. So I don’t think it is a good ad targeting even swing voters.
Maybe Biden is under-utilizing the platform, but it doesn’t appear to me that Trump is using it efficiently at all.

I get those too. I listen to music on YouTube sometime when I'm cooking or doing chores and I'm too cheap to go ad-free. I also see them on Surly sometimes if I'm not logged in.

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Who the fuck falls for this shit?  Unbelievable. 

Pubs have a significant built in advantage since their base is uneducated , low IQ, lack critical thinking skills and easily frightened/manipulated.  Even the ones that understand it’s BS are ethically challenged as to not be offended at such transparent shittery.   Just imagine how easy your job would be if your clientele had purchasing power, but lacked any ability to analyze your sales pitch.

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To follow up on targeted ads, I just saw a Biden one on the side banner for RealClearPolitics.  It talked about the effect of Covid in Omaha, juxtaposing Trump speeches minimizing it with negative headlines, including one for the closing of a popular diner.  That's pretty solid. 

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Who the fuck falls for this shit?  Unbelievable. 

It’s almost a way of life or a cult for some people now. Nothing else matters besides beating the blue team to those folks.

they wake up, wash their truck, chew tobaccy, listen to rush limbaugh, go hunting, get shot down by pretty liberal women at bars or online, then angrily go to the polls to “ own the libs”.

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On 9/11/2020 at 4:10 PM, pyrohornIII said:

 

Actually, there is an app and website https://register2vote.org/ where you can go for yourself or someone else, fill out the base info and it will tell you if that person is in fact registered and to what address.  If not registered, it will take the given data and mail an application to the prospective voter.  All they need to do is complete it and send it in to their county clerk or election administrator.   It will be pre-addressed for that.     

We are trying to start a program to where neighbors who can drive will try to get their neighbors who can't to ride with them to EARLY VOTING.   IF we wait until election day it's going to be a madhouse.   We are also looking to enlist some church buses to help with this.  

But you are right, the persuasive part of the campaign is past, now the cold calls are only trying to determine if someone might be a democrat that doesn't vote in primaries, or potentially votes R in primaries.

Many rural counties have no D candidates, so if you need to vote for a neighbor or friend for county commissioner, then you have to vote R in the primary.  But that won't stop you voting for whoever you want in the general.   Since there are no Democratic candidates for the most part, then those races are won in the primary, and votes for those neighbors and friends aren't as vital.

 

Mine is the only yard with a Biden sign amongst a sea of dotard signage.  I’m thinking about setting up a massive barricade at the exit of our subdivision on election day to keep the lunatics from getting out.

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