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Joe Biden 2021


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On 10/13/2021 at 11:03 AM, Satoshi said:

https://theweek.com/business-news/1005970/treasury-secretary-yellen-says-consumers-shouldnt-panic-about-christmas?amp&__twitter_impression=true
 

There may be isolated shortages of goods and services in the coming months”

Not a good sign that they’re saying this imo. Let’s hope her prediction of “isolated shortages” holds up better than her “transitory inflation” 

Just curious: what exactly do you think is the cause of this?  Did it all start in late January of this year?  Or maybe sometime last year?

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Doesn't that make sense, though? During the recession years, the area I was in began to consolidate, so it was not a good time to take the chance. It was like that for a lot of people. When you have low unemployment which started during the latter part of Obama's second term, continued through Trump's until the pandemic, it seems folks are looking for greener pastures.

In addition, the employable (ages around 25-64 is the category the gov uses I believe) percentage of the population (total pop) is something like 64% which is down by several percentage points, likely due to the aging retirees mentioned above.

So many factors and few of them are related to the President in office right now.

Edited by Mrs Whiggins
Sorry Bullneck, my reply was to the post above yours
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12 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Just curious: what exactly do you think is the cause of this?  Did it all start in late January of this year?  Or maybe sometime last year?

The initial spark was last year’s Covid shutdown of economy and subsequent government stimulus. I put it here because right or wrong it’s falling at his feet in the eyes of the public. And there’s not a CR economy thread that I’m aware of. 

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18 minutes ago, Satoshi said:

The initial spark was last year’s Covid shutdown of economy and subsequent government stimulus. I put it here because right or wrong it’s falling at his feet in the eyes of the public. And there’s not a CR economy thread that I’m aware of. 

No, it's "falling at his feet" in the eyes of right wing fucktards.

Like you.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

Isn't this kind of the thing conservatives have been preaching for decades when arguing against minimum wages?  "If you don't like your job or pay, find a better one."

Turns out people don't want to work for a wage where they can't afford a one bedroom apartment on their own while getting treated like shit by customers every day.  So they are quitting.

 

Conservatives now:  "BuT nOw I hAvE tO wAiT lOnGeR aT aPpLeBeEs AnD tHe SeRvIcE iS wOrSe!"

Seriously, this. Am I just oversimplifying things? Since when is people quitting jobs a bad thing?

You can't apply for UI if you quit your job, so it's not like they're quitting to play Playstation on the government's dime. They're likely finding more desirable jobs. What's more free market than that?

Edited by aggie08
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Here's another graph or two:

Note the recessions (shaded areas) and compare to the graph Mr. Anon Bitcoin posted.

First graph is long range, second is a ten year span. Keep in mind the population demographics and which large age group is retiring, which demographic is moving into that tier and where the next large demographic age group is in the career path.

Fred1.thumb.png.00b1f6b5fe722f6fff916c408ff617ba.png

Fred2.thumb.png.415b824e8b9cb9b01a989bf96bc1e952.png

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

No, it's "falling at his feet" in the eyes of right wing fucktards.

Like you.

The President gets credit or blame for the economy no matter if it’s right or wrong. This isn’t a new phenomenon.

The administration is aware of this and it’s why they’re trying to address the problem and adjust expectations. 

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14 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Seriously, this. Am I just oversimplifying things? Since when is people quitting jobs a bad thing?

You can't apply for UI if you quit your job, so it's not like they're quitting to play Playstation on the government's dime. They're likely finding more desirable jobs. What's more free market than that?

Shit gets real when people have to wait 5 extra minutes for a sweet tea refill.

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2 minutes ago, Satoshi said:

The President gets credit or blame for the economy no matter if it’s right or wrong. This isn’t a new phenomenon.

The administration is aware of this and it’s why they’re trying to address the problem and adjust expectations. 

Is there something wrong with the economy?  

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10 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Is there something wrong with the economy?  

Inflation is running the hottest in decades at 5.4%. Q3 GDP slowing quite a bit with growth predicted at 1.3% by the Atlanta Fed. Big jobs report miss last month. The sec of Treasury acknowledging there will be some shortages of goods and services in the near future. There are some concerning data points. 
 

Inflation though is the big headline number that resonates with voters as it affects their day to day lives. 

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4 minutes ago, Satoshi said:

Inflation is running the hottest in decades at 5.4%. Q3 GDP slowing quite a bit with growth predicted at 1.3% by the Atlanta Fed. Big jobs report miss last month. The sec of Treasury acknowledging there will be some shortages of goods and services in the near future. There are some concerning data points. 
 

Inflation though is the big headline number that resonates with voters as it affects their day to day lives. 

no it fucking doesn't

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13 minutes ago, Satoshi said:

Inflation is running the hottest in decades at 5.4%. Q3 GDP slowing quite a bit with growth predicted at 1.3% by the Atlanta Fed. Big jobs report miss last month. The sec of Treasury acknowledging there will be some shortages of goods and services in the near future. There are some concerning data points. 
 

Inflation though is the big headline number that resonates with voters as it affects their day to day lives. 

Nice narrative you've constructed there.

People with brains comprehend that 1) there's always something not perfect going on, 2) things could be a HELL of a lot worse, and 3) since we can't keep consuming and burning fossil fuels like we have there will be changes.  

So, people with brains are taking it in stride and looking for Biden's big, beautiful infrastructure package.  

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The sudden pearl-clutching about economic data from the right is as predictable as it is sad. 

This is reminiscent of the early days of the Obama administration.  Shit hit the fan -- fault or no -- under the previous Republican administration, and the newly elected Democrat is left to deal with the aftermath.  

Hey @Satoshi, nobody buys your concern.  Frankly, the current economic numbers are not all that startling given a GLOBAL PANDEMIC and any sense of history.  The idea that extracting our economy from this trainwreck would be easy exists only in the minds of dumb partisan hacks like yourself.  Negged.

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One of you big brained folks school me because I didn't take business classes with my degree beyond the 100 level I need an elective category.

Inflation is either demand/shortage or demand/cost to manufacture (materials and labor costs) or tariffs or all of them working together in some form or fashion or am I off base here? Because it does seem like with the pandemic, it created some of the first two and combined with the already low unemployment put things a little in a rush so that everything went up up up. The tariffs by the time January 2020 rolled around were at 16.7 % of all goods imported into the US (CBO source). Pandemic briefing was in January and the former president was working on the big beautiful trade deal with China and not really interested in learning more about a virus.

So a perfect storm of conditions and people are looking for someone to blame? I think getting the infrastructure package going might be a decent enough way to assist with that, but it would require understanding and a modicum of patience by Americans that: construction during this time would be painful in some ways due to the higher costs, but the benefits to shoring up our inadequate facilities and roads and educational systems would pay off in the long run.

So yeah, we're screwed, aren't we?

 

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47 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Is there something wrong with the economy?  

The Dow jumped another 500 points today.  My 401k is up 10%.  

That was the standard from January 20, 2017 to January 19, 2021 so it's the greatest economy in world history! 

Edited by Js1
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6 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

One of you big brained folks school me because I didn't take business classes with my degree beyond the 100 level I need an elective category.

Inflation is either demand/shortage or demand/cost to manufacture (materials and labor costs) or tariffs or all of them working together in some form or fashion or am I off base here? Because it does seem like with the pandemic, it created some of the first two and combined with the already low unemployment put things a little in a rush so that everything went up up up. The tariffs by the time January 2020 rolled around were at 16.7 % of all goods imported into the US (CBO source). Pandemic briefing was in January and the former president was working on the big beautiful trade deal with China and not really interested in learning more about a virus.

So a perfect storm of conditions and people are looking for someone to blame? I think getting the infrastructure package going might be a decent enough way to assist with that, but it would require understanding and a modicum of patience by Americans that: construction during this time would be painful in some ways due to the higher costs, but the benefits to shoring up our inadequate facilities and roads and educational systems would pay off in the long run.

So yeah, we're screwed, aren't we?

 

No. The next presidential election is over three years away.

Everything that is happening now is mainly because the Washington press corps is bored.

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1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

No. The next presidential election is over three years away.

Everything that is happening now is mainly because the Washington press corps is bored.

Bored?

Would they like me to send them a list of topics from which they can select? It's what I used to do with my children when they were "bored." There was no debate that one would be doing one of them, the decision was all theirs, but opting out was not an option unless they wished to simply chill and look at clouds for awhile.

For example, why don't they check in with the USPS board and see what they're up to lately. Or give Ellen Weintraub a call. She's the Federal Elections Commissioner and probably has some interesting things to talk about. Or dig deeper into what the future holds for these pesky voting machines now that Dominion is tainted and the audits have been exposing voter information to private companies. What ever happened with Ivanka Trump's patent? Was it as @TwiceHorn says and is just a catch all term or are there plans to back route some machines into the US through an untraceable LLC? Explore a little more into the talking point that the RW media had about the Chinese spy and Eric Swalwell which ended up being a nothing burger with respect to him, but how much do we know about spies in general? War isn't being waged the same way anymore, so how many spies from how many countries are embedded here? Do a 'whatever happened to piece' on Lev Parnas and the other bit players we came to know during the days of the 'phone call.' How did Lev's relationship (fraternal not romantic) with Pam Bondi in 2020 end up with her being named not only to Trump's impeachment team, but also now head of his super PAC. Maybe dig a little more into her being registered as a foreign agent on behalf of Qatar and during the time when her firm was involved with the Turkish owned bank (Halkbank) being investigated  by the DOJ for evading Iran sanctions. Parnas was paid a sum by her firm for referring business from the Turkish government.

Lots of loose ends to tie up on some old stuff that is being swept under the rug. None of those topics are new, but sometimes old news and legwork leads to new stories that are new news.

If all that fails, ask Jen Psaki about the White House cat.

 

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4 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Bored?

Would they like me to send them a list of topics from which they can select? It's what I used to do with my children when they were "bored." There was no debate that one would be doing one of them, the decision was all theirs, but opting out was not an option unless they wished to simply chill and look at clouds for awhile.

For example, why don't they check in with the USPS board and see what they're up to lately. Or give Ellen Weintraub a call. She's the Federal Elections Commissioner and probably has some interesting things to talk about. Or dig deeper into what the future holds for these pesky voting machines now that Dominion is tainted and the audits have been exposing voter information to private companies. What ever happened with Ivanka Trump's patent? Was it as @TwiceHorn says and is just a catch all term or are there plans to back route some machines into the US through an untraceable LLC? Explore a little more into the talking point that the RW media had about the Chinese spy and Eric Swalwell which ended up being a nothing burger with respect to him, but how much do we know about spies in general? War isn't being waged the same way anymore, so how many spies from how many countries are embedded here? Do a 'whatever happened to piece' on Lev Parnas and the other bit players we came to know during the days of the 'phone call.' How did Lev's relationship (fraternal not romantic) with Pam Bondi in 2020 end up with her being named not only to Trump's impeachment team, but also now head of his super PAC. Maybe dig a little more into her being registered as a foreign agent on behalf of Qatar and during the time when her firm was involved with the Turkish owned bank (Halkbank) being investigated  by the DOJ for evading Iran sanctions. Parnas was paid a sum by her firm for referring business from the Turkish government.

Lots of loose ends to tie up on some old stuff that is being swept under the rug. None of those topics are new, but sometimes old news and legwork leads to new stories that are new news.

If all that fails, ask Jen Psaki about the White House cat.

 

No one has made any allegations about Ivanka Trump patents, as opposed to trademarks.

There was some loose talk about one of her foreign trademarks reciting "voting machines" as a good to which the mark is applied.  I made an educated guess that that was a translation error.

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2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

No one has made any allegations about Ivanka Trump patents, as opposed to trademarks.

There was some loose talk about one of her foreign trademarks reciting "voting machines" as a good to which the mark is applied.  I made an educated guess that that was a translation error.

My bad. I was lazy and didn't remember the specifics. I forget you are the details guy and I can't be slipshod or you'll catch me out!

It could very well be a translation error, but why not look a little further if one is bored?

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20 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

My bad. I was lazy and didn't remember the specifics. I forget you are the details guy and I can't be slipshod or you'll catch me out!

It could very well be a translation error, but why not look a little further if one is bored?

No big deal.  The whole trademark thing was one of the early media excesses on Trump.

Your mention did cause me to search for Trump-related patents.  The only two I could find were from "Trump Taj Mahal Operations" and were gaming-related and 15 years old.

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1 hour ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Bored?

Would they like me to send them a list of topics from which they can select? It's what I used to do with my children when they were "bored." There was no debate that one would be doing one of them, the decision was all theirs, but opting out was not an option unless they wished to simply chill and look at clouds for awhile.

For example, why don't they check in with the USPS board and see what they're up to lately. Or give Ellen Weintraub a call. She's the Federal Elections Commissioner and probably has some interesting things to talk about. Or dig deeper into what the future holds for these pesky voting machines now that Dominion is tainted and the audits have been exposing voter information to private companies. What ever happened with Ivanka Trump's patent? Was it as @TwiceHorn says and is just a catch all term or are there plans to back route some machines into the US through an untraceable LLC? Explore a little more into the talking point that the RW media had about the Chinese spy and Eric Swalwell which ended up being a nothing burger with respect to him, but how much do we know about spies in general? War isn't being waged the same way anymore, so how many spies from how many countries are embedded here? Do a 'whatever happened to piece' on Lev Parnas and the other bit players we came to know during the days of the 'phone call.' How did Lev's relationship (fraternal not romantic) with Pam Bondi in 2020 end up with her being named not only to Trump's impeachment team, but also now head of his super PAC. Maybe dig a little more into her being registered as a foreign agent on behalf of Qatar and during the time when her firm was involved with the Turkish owned bank (Halkbank) being investigated  by the DOJ for evading Iran sanctions. Parnas was paid a sum by her firm for referring business from the Turkish government.

Lots of loose ends to tie up on some old stuff that is being swept under the rug. None of those topics are new, but sometimes old news and legwork leads to new stories that are new news.

If all that fails, ask Jen Psaki about the White House cat.

 

Yes, bored. All they care about is the horse race. That other stuff is for nerds.

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5 hours ago, Satoshi said:

Inflation is running the hottest in decades at 5.4%. Q3 GDP slowing quite a bit with growth predicted at 1.3% by the Atlanta Fed. Big jobs report miss last month. The sec of Treasury acknowledging there will be some shortages of goods and services in the near future. There are some concerning data points. 
 

Inflation though is the big headline number that resonates with voters as it affects their day to day lives. 

So you don't think multiple years of zero interest combined with stimulus through corporate tax cuts under trump have anything to do with current inflation?

Fuck me, you're such an intellectually dishonest troll. 

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A little inflation doesn’t affect the poor. They’re fucked either way. (Unless they get more benefits aka the dirty socialism infrastructure package). The only people who give a shit about a little inflation are rich people. Won’t somebody think of my portfolio

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26 minutes ago, Captainant said:

So you don't think multiple years of zero interest combined with stimulus through corporate tax cuts under trump have anything to do with current inflation?

Fuck me, you're such an intellectually dishonest troll. 

Please refer to my username if you’re having trouble figuring out how I might feel about long term ZIRP.
 

Are you saying the corporate tax cuts lead to inflation through wage growth or more re-investment? Or do the larger deficits lead to more inflation? You’d have some disagreement from some of your allies on one or both of those points I think.
 

There’s nothing dishonest about my posting. The inflation/deficit situation is a bipartisan effort. The reason the inflation rate is relevant to this thread and forum is the POTUS is looking to push through many trillions more stimulus and “reshaping of the economy” while we have inflation at 30 year highs.  Some actual infrastructure spending without the fluff at the current low interest rates would be useful. Otherwise I think he’s tempting fate trying to push the pedal to the metal at this time. 
 

30 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

A little inflation doesn’t affect the poor. They’re fucked either way. (Unless they get more benefits aka the dirty socialism infrastructure package). The only people who give a shit about a little inflation are rich people. Won’t somebody think of my portfolio

How much is a little inflation?

 

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39 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Totally,  food and fuel inflation are essential rounding for the poor.  Not a total face fucking when weekly groceries go from $200 to $400 and filling up the Camry goes from $25 to $50.  

Your intellectual dishonesty destroys your own point.  When has the price of food doubled in any time span not measured in decades?  You can find points in time where gas prices have plummeted so far that a quick recovery might constitute a "doubling", but it's a very odd situation.  The current price of gas is roughly at the 10-year average.

Try better arguments.

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2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Your intellectual dishonesty destroys your own point.  When has the price of food doubled in any time span not measured in decades?  You can find points in time where gas prices have plummeted so far that a quick recovery might constitute a "doubling", but it's a very odd situation.  The current price of gas is roughly at the 10-year average.

Try better arguments.

Don’t make Jimmy get his HEB receipts 

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5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I encourage you to find a post where I showed HEB receipts.  In fact, I'll donate $1,000 to Mobile Loaves & Fishes if you can do so.

I just paid less than $3.00 for a bag of lemons. They haven't changed a lot. I get why meat is up and there was even an article recently about the ranchers getting squeezed by the meat producers (cue @Royalfan5 I think that's who I'm thinking of) who've been charging a lot for meat to consumers but not paying much for the cattle. And the packers were the ones who sped up their lines (IIRC) and didn't do much for their employees during the pandemic. So, there's a little taking advantage vigorish going on as well, perhaps?

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13 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I just paid less than $3.00 for a bag of lemons. They haven't changed a lot. I get why meat is up and there was even an article recently about the ranchers getting squeezed by the meat producers (cue @Royalfan5 I think that's who I'm thinking of) who've been charging a lot for meat to consumers but not paying much for the cattle. And the packers were the ones who sped up their lines (IIRC) and didn't do much for their employees during the pandemic. So, there's a little taking advantage vigorish going on as well, perhaps?

The packers especially beef packers have made a killing but numbers are starting to shift to the cattleman’s favor. Pork guys have done better recently but it’s tighter. Beef and pork wholesale has been backing up seasonally and production is good so if your store doesn’t have any it’s trucking. Certain specialty processing has some labor issues and Smithfield had a walkout in Sioux City, but no major issues like Kellogg and Deere with their strikes.

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32 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I encourage you to find a post where I showed HEB receipts.  In fact, I'll donate $1,000 to Mobile Loaves & Fishes if you can do so.

It was a joke, not literal.
 

But you sure as fuck went in depth on the prices of your HEB shopping Mr Supermarket Sweep. 

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Economic headwinds 
 

Lmao you really thought this was some kind of slam dunk lolololol

On the rainbows and unicorns side, I think we can all agree on the $600+ bank account information issue. Fortunately I doubt that particular provision would survive Congress.
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1 minute ago, gmr548 said:


Lmao you really thought this was some kind of slam dunk lolololol

On the rainbows and unicorns side, I think we can all agree on the $600+ bank account information issue. Fortunately I doubt that particular provision would survive Congress.

Well until they’re hired somewhere else they’re not working. Last jobs report was poor. 
 

Can we all agree on the $600 issue? I haven’t seen any discussion of it here, but it’s a massive increase in financial surveillance of our entire population. They’re going after the big tax evaders with their $1000 accounts. Crickets pretty much here and on Tv. And I include Republican politicians. 
 

It also moves us a little closer to eventual financial censorship power for the government. 

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27 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Lmao you really thought this was some kind of slam dunk lolololol

On the rainbows and unicorns side, I think we can all agree on the $600+ bank account information issue. Fortunately I doubt that particular provision would survive Congress.

 

21 minutes ago, Satoshi said:

Well until they’re hired somewhere else they’re not working. Last jobs report was poor. 
 

Can we all agree on the $600 issue? I haven’t seen any discussion of it here, but it’s a massive increase in financial surveillance of our entire population. They’re going after the big tax evaders with their $1000 accounts. Crickets pretty much here and on Tv. And I include Republican politicians. 
 

It also moves us a little closer to eventual financial censorship power for the government. 

gmr has the gist of it, which is the Treasury cannot unilaterally change that law, so the proposal wouldn't likely survive Congress. I don't agree with it, although it was never about the ticky tacky individual transactions that social media made it out to be--it was the overall money flowing in and out of accounts--in order to grab the over $166 billion dollar tax gap. However much I would like for tax avoiders to be taken to account, this amount of surveillance is not good for the People.

I've seen news accounts of it, I surmised that most folks shrugged that it was dead in the water and moved on. We'll see if it gets any more traction.

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2 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

 

gmr has the gist of it, which is the Treasury cannot unilaterally change that law, so the proposal wouldn't likely survive Congress. I don't agree with it, although it was never about the ticky tacky individual transactions that social media made it out to be--it was the overall money flowing in and out of accounts--in order to grab the over $166 billion dollar tax gap. However much I would like for tax avoiders to be taken to account, this amount of surveillance is not good for the People.

I've seen news accounts of it, I surmised that most folks shrugged that it was dead in the water and moved on. We'll see if it gets any more traction.

This is pretty accurate, I think.  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/09/29/fact-check-post-treasury-tax-proposal-partly-false/8411799002/

Right now, it's a proposal that does seem to be part of the 1.5T infrastructure bill.  It requires the vote of congress.

It reports the inflow and outflow from accounts with a balance over $600 or when the inflow or outflow is more than $600.  It does not report individual transactions.  So it would be a bit of a check on reported income.  $600 seems far too low a threshold for this purpose, though.

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35 minutes ago, Satoshi said:

Well until they’re hired somewhere else they’re not working. Last jobs report was poor. 
 

Can we all agree on the $600 issue? I haven’t seen any discussion of it here, but it’s a massive increase in financial surveillance of our entire population. They’re going after the big tax evaders with their $1000 accounts. Crickets pretty much here and on Tv. And I include Republican politicians. 
 

It also moves us a little closer to eventual financial censorship power for the government. 

What the hell is financial censorship?

Employers of all stripes report your income to the government.  Financial institutions are supposed to do the same.  All of mine do.  I don't know to what extent that gets abused.

I don't love the idea of the government having a window into my finances beyond what it already does, but the aforementioned reporting has gone on for decades without substantial abuse by the gubmint, while taxpayers substantially abuse the gubmint.

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2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

This is pretty accurate, I think.  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/09/29/fact-check-post-treasury-tax-proposal-partly-false/8411799002/

Right now, it's a proposal that does seem to be part of the 1.5T infrastructure bill.  It requires the vote of congress.

It reports the inflow and outflow from accounts with a balance over $600 or when the inflow or outflow is more than $600.  It does not report individual transactions.  So it would be a bit of a check on reported income.  $600 seems far too low a threshold for this purpose, though.

I swear when this news first broke, the first image in my brain was the scene from The Accountant (Ben Affleck, Anna Kendrick) where agent Medina (Cynthia Addai-Robinson) is in the office of her boss, Ray King (J.K. Simmons), saying "we got him. We got him, Ray." She then goes on to show how Ben Affleck is laundering money through small cash businesses in a strip mall.

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2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

What the hell is financial censorship?

Employers of all stripes report your income to the government.  Financial institutions are supposed to do the same.  All of mine do.  I don't know to what extent that gets abused.

I don't love the idea of the government having a window into my finances beyond what it already does, but the aforementioned reporting has gone on for decades without substantial abuse by the gubmint, while taxpayers substantially abuse the gubmint.

https://www.eff.org/issues/financial-censorship
 

More common around the rest of the world, but our benevolent government has dabbled. Not hard to see things moving more in this direction given the worsening political climate. 
 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Choke_Point

 

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5 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I swear when this news first broke, the first image in my brain was the scene from The Accountant (Ben Affleck, Anna Kendrick) where agent Medina (Cynthia Addai-Robinson) is in the office of her boss, Ray King (J.K. Simmons), saying "we got him. We got him, Ray." She then goes on to show how Ben Affleck is laundering money through small cash businesses in a strip mall.

That‘ll fill the tax gap! 

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