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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Coelenterate Fuccboi said:

My advice, disconnect your economics education from your short-term trading.

Already did.  I can be right long term and wrong short term, it's happened before and it cost me.  Can't fight momentum and exuberance, despite what I see coming. My Dad just told me with all the fantastic news with tariffs, along with impending peace in the Middle East and Ukraine the market is going on a multi-year run to the moon! 

For me I will likely give back about double what I made on PLTR, this AM in all likelihood. Or worse depending on the drop.   I'm still mostly cash, but FOMOing today.  

Longer term I still see inflation hamstringing the fed, and rates not receding to where they will need to be to add another big chunk onto the debt/deficit.  It will be interesting to see the appetite for US retailers to bite off 30% in additional expenses on china imports.  You have to assume some retailers are going to have to start paying the fees, or potential have the problem of empty shelves and no income.  The costs will be passed on to US consumers, and this is going to take more time. But it's coming, and inevitable. 

PS- seeing some of the surges in retailers may give me an opportunity shortly to the downside.

 

 

Edited by horn4life
Posted
40 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Walmart down on the day, which surprises me.  Seems like they'd be buoyed by Chinese deal more than anyone.

30% is still an insanely high tariff rate.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

the krassenstein brothers are retarded.  they are the left's version of joe rogan.

Good to know. it popped up, and lately it has been difficult to tell Onion articles from the daily news. 

Posted
5 hours ago, horn4life said:

Anyone know why Soundhound (SOUN) is spiking today? +20% on the day?

Discourse comimg out of Geneva is that China will be more favorable to opening their markets..  These guys have business in China is my guess.  AI voice space is right up the China alley.

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Posted
10 hours ago, horn4life said:

My Dad just told me … peace in … Ukraine

Your dad is as delusional as orange makeup man

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Posted
On 5/16/2025 at 6:51 PM, Trenchtown said:

Not sure where to put this. It would potentially affect multiple markets so I guess it can go here. Haven’t seen it discussed at all but would be massive. 
 

My surface reading of this is it will be used to offset extending the existing tax cuts. The politics of that aside, it should hurt demand for Treasuries for sure and perhaps equities. At the same time it’s an unusual carve out that no one else around the world gives. We’ll see what happens. 
 

 

I’m no economist, but this bullshit does not seem good for rates. Assuming, I suppose, that one would prefer them lower as I do. 

Posted (edited)

I tend to think that over heated rhetoric around debts and deficits is exactly that: overheated. Our nation's status as global reserve fund grants us a lot of leeway other countries don't have. 

But I don't think passing a huge debt fueled tax cut when there is already a lot of upward long term interest rate pressure is... super prudent. Particularily if that tax cut doesn't structurally change much, since it's really just an extension of a previous tax bill. 

Edited by Bateshorn
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Posted
50 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I tend to think that over heated rhetoric around debts and deficits is exactly that: overheated. Our nation's status as global reserve fund grants us a lot of leeway other countries don't have. 

But I don't think passing a huge debt fueled tax cut when there is already a lot of upward long term interest rate pressure is... super prudent. Particularily if that tax cut doesn't structurally change much, since it's really just an extension of a previous tax bill. 

Until it doesn't. You can literally watch other nations seeking to actively chip away at that status, and we sit around and do nothing. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Until it doesn't. You can literally watch other nations seeking to actively chip away at that status, and we sit around and do nothing. 

I wouldn't say we're doing exactly nothing...

image.gif.8b0801e3de0679cc32341197d09105dd.gif

 

image.gif.ec7a07eb0f93df3cebbaee3a5b3f67c7.gif

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

I tend to think that over heated rhetoric around debts and deficits is exactly that: overheated. Our nation's status as global reserve fund grants us a lot of leeway other countries don't have. 

That’s true, and if you were designing an incentive strategy to encourage other nations to dedollarize the global trade economy, you would unilaterally impose a broad based tariff regime that reduces imports and enlarge the deficit and weaken the dollar via domestic tax stimulus. 
 

46 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Until it doesn't. You can literally watch other nations seeking to actively chip away at that status, and we sit around and do nothing

If only!

Posted

You think ten yr is fun, the 30 yr closed at highest since 2007. 
 

stable geniuses running shit… right into the mountainside. 

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Posted

Well finally starting to see some of the unemployment trickle upwards.  Only a 5% increase over predicted, but a rise.  

Interesting to see the market digest the muting of Trump's tariff powers.  Surge initially was over 500 points last night on the Dow futures. Now... about unchanged.

"The markets can only focus on the shark nearest the boat," was a phrase I heard recently.  Tariffs ahve been the closest shark.  Now the inflation is coming most certainly, and the unemployment is beginning to rise.  And focus will move towards normal fiscal risks.  Like massive deficits to be funded when the 10 year is at most often close to 4.5%... Anyhow it will be interesting to see if the inflation will start to show up in tomorrows numbers or not. 

 

Posted (edited)
On 5/29/2025 at 10:21 AM, horn4life said:

Well finally starting to see some of the unemployment trickle upwards.  Only a 5% increase over predicted, but a rise.  

Interesting to see the market digest the muting of Trump's tariff powers.  Surge initially was over 500 points last night on the Dow futures. Now... about unchanged.

"The markets can only focus on the shark nearest the boat," was a phrase I heard recently.  Tariffs ahve been the closest shark.  Now the inflation is coming most certainly, and the unemployment is beginning to rise.  And focus will move towards normal fiscal risks.  Like massive deficits to be funded when the 10 year is at most often close to 4.5%... Anyhow it will be interesting to see if the inflation will start to show up in tomorrows numbers or not. 

 

If unemployment goes up , rates will come down, markets will rally as autos and mortgages will get less pricey and the machine will once again keep running along.  
 

Inflation may jump a little but with lower rates people will take the trade off I imagine.
 

 IF and it’s a big IF, inflation stays calm combined with growing unemployment as rates ease across the board, Katie bar the door the market will pop

Edited by jdhorn92
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Posted
22 minutes ago, jdhorn92 said:

If unemployment goes up , rates will come down, markets will rally as autos and mortgages will get less pricey and the machine will once again keep running along.  
 

Inflation may jump a little but with lower rates people will take the trade off I imagine.
 

 IF and it’s a big IF, inflation stays calm combined with growing unemployment as rates ease across the board, Katie bar the door the market will pop

At what point does unemployment impact the economy from the pov that those ppl have no income. 

Posted
1 hour ago, jdhorn92 said:

If unemployment goes up , rates will come down, markets will rally as autos and mortgages will get less pricey and the machine will once again keep running along.  Inflation may jump a little but with lower rates people will take the trade off I imagine.
 

 IF and it’s a big IF, inflation stays calm combined with growing unemployment as rates ease across the board, Katie bar the door the market will pop

It's impossible not to.  Tariff taxes on imports cannot be absorbed by manufacturer and US importing company.  Unless you think all companies have a shit ton of excess profits they can shed to absorb the new tax.  Ultimate whoever buys the product will absorb the majority of the cost increase.  It's just math.

Market will indeed take off like a rocket if there is no inflation.  But we are going to get both unemployment and inflation.  And the Fed will simply not know which is the bigger shark until more data comes in.  Unless brutal unemployment numbers can overwhelm inflation concerns... hopes for Fed, or Bond market pushing rates downward is a bad bet.

 

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Posted
12 hours ago, scottsins said:


I was able to get some shares in the IPO at $31/each. No clue how it will do long term, but I just wanted to try out some IPO action and happened to get some of RH’s allocation.

Congrats! 

I have no idea how it will perform either. Seems overvalued, but it is the public markets only exposure to emerging stablecoin industry.

Crazy to think what Tether would be worth if IPO'd. Will never happen though.

 

 

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