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2022 Transfer Thread - It's the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)


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8 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

There will be at least 3 guys just as good or better than Johnson who enter the portal over the next week before the May 1st deadline.

I'm not sure how many quality players will be hitting the portal between now and 5/1. I think a lot of the new entries will be guys getting pushed out, but I do agree Johnson isn't a huge loss. It would've been nice to have some more depth at ILB, but he wasn't going to be a big difference maker. I'm skeptical he would've started over Overshown and Ford. It would have been nice to have him if one of them gets hurt. 

7 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

We have a free for all free agency in college football, but unlike every pro sport, no guardrails at all on team salaries. I don’t think this ends well. 

Yep. It's going to be full chaos unless/until some of the major conferences decide there needs to be clear rules and an enforcement authority they all agree to. And even if that happened, the legal side would still make enforcement very complicated. 

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23 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

We have a free for all free agency in college football, but unlike every pro sport, no guardrails at all on team salaries. I don’t think this ends well. 

Soooo it's just European soccer. All the way down to the overhyped, overpriced 17 year olds.

Let's hope aggy isn't able to turn their Qatar campus into a wing of the PSG sportswashing machine.

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17 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

We have a free for all free agency in college football, but unlike every pro sport, no guardrails at all on team salaries. I don’t think this ends well. 

The only benefit that salary caps have in pro sports are to ensure that billionaire owners keep a higher percentage of profits than they otherwise would, thus ensuring some level of parity. Otherwise, some schmuck like Jerry Jones would gladly spend $10 billion of his own money if it would guarantee a Super Bowl victory. Other owners, like Woody Johnson or Jimmy Haslam would no longer field competitive teams, because they are more interested in milking profits than wins.

In the current college landscape, there's nothing preventing the billionaire from spending ungodly amounts of money to see his favorite team win. It probably "ends well" for the players, and the for teams that have extremely rich patrons willing to spend it to win. It probably doesn't end well for teams that don't. And as for parity? There hasn't been anything remotely resembling parity in College Football in a long, long, time. 

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21 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

The only benefit that salary caps have in pro sports are to ensure that billionaire owners keep a higher percentage of profits than they otherwise would, thus ensuring some level of parity. Otherwise, some schmuck like Jerry Jones would gladly spend $10 billion of his own money if it would guarantee a Super Bowl victory. Other owners, like Woody Johnson or Jimmy Haslam would no longer field competitive teams, because they are more interested in milking profits than wins.

In the current college landscape, there's nothing preventing the billionaire from spending ungodly amounts of money to see his favorite team win. It probably "ends well" for the players, and the for teams that have extremely rich patrons willing to spend it to win. It probably doesn't end well for teams that don't. And as for parity? There hasn't been anything remotely resembling parity in College Football in a long, long, time. 

Please help us Michael and Elon!

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1 hour ago, tokamak said:

I think it’s technically against the rules, but I assume there’s plenty of coordination happening between coaching staffs and NIL machines? Like, “hey this is a guy we really need this year”?

 This is all evolving so quickly. It’s like each program has it’s own salary cap, but the number is secret. 

Tennessee just passed a law that makes such coordination legal. 

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58 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

I do agree Johnson isn't a huge loss. It would've been nice to have some more depth at ILB, but he wasn't going to be a big difference maker. I'm skeptical he would've started over Overshown and Ford. It would have been nice to have him if one of them gets hurt. 

Exactly this. He would have improved the position overall but we shouldn’t be getting in a bidding war over him or promising him a starting job, which he would definitely want for his last year. 

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I had reservations about adding a guy that quit on some of our current players in the middle of a season. Yeah, I get that Herman was probably the reason, but still. I'm ok with him going to Miami. 

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Breakfast Bites: Ochaun Mathis back on campus this weekend, Caleb Johnson decision day

Mike Roach

 

Spoiler

 

Breakfast Bites: Ochaun Mathis back on campus this weekend, Caleb Johnson decision day

Mike Roach
 

— Texas needs a bona fide pass rusher and the Longhorns have been working on TCU transfer target Ochaun Mathis. A source close to the talented EDGE transfer tells us that Mathis will be back on campus this weekend for an official visit starting today. The Longhorns have been viewed as a favorite since Mathis made the decision to enter the portal. A Nebraska visit two weeks ago made this a tight race as the Cornhuskers made a huge impression, but Mathis has been to Austin several times, including a trip last weekend. It says a lot that Mathis will use what is conceivably his last official visit to return to the 40 Acres with a decision expected at the end of the month. Nebraska's presence is real, but a source near Mathis expects Texas to be the pick as of today. The Longhorns have a great shot at slamming the door with his trip this weekend and add a vital piece to the team at a position of great need.

— Speaking of transfers, UCLA linebacker Caleb Johnson will make his decision today. This recruitment has been odd with the potential storyline of Johnson possibly returning to Texas where he was once on the roster before transferring to UCLA. Johnson has been a tough read for multiple people involved in the recruitment. I don't have a strong read on the situation and am not confident enough in anyone to register a Crystal Ball, but two separate sources I spoke with feel that Miami will have the edge. Texas felt like it made an impact on the visit, but Miami seems to have a better path after recently landing friend and former UCLA teammate Mitchell Agude. Like I said, it's a tough read all the way around, but the little amount of buzz I've heard indicates more confidence in Miami at this point.

— I checked with some sources regarding Arizona State transfer linebacker Eric Gentry. While Brian Dohn reported that there has been some contact from Texas, I don't see the Longhorns being a major player. It sounds like USC and Miami are the main schools to watch for the former four-star prospect. I do expect us to see one more flurry in the portal with the May 1 portal deadline approaching. That will be the last day players can enter the portal and still be eligible this fall. As spring ball ends, we should see more entrants from guys who have a better idea of where they stand following spring ball.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

Awesome.  The two schools I least want to be successful - Vols and aggy - are all over this NIL stuff.

I think it’s been made clear that aggy has been handing out money without any real NIL programs in place. Consequently, they’re trying to cover their tracks by creating NIL programs after the fact. 
 

Whether they face any consequences for these actions is anyone’s guess… 

Edited by Junior Bonner
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16 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

Awesome.  The two schools I least want to be successful - Vols and aggy - are all over this NIL stuff.

Vols, sure.  Aggy? The Houston Chomicle can try shoving it up everyone else's ass about how aggy is leading the way in NIL, but you can't fool most of us. They're not doing anything special with NIL...

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3 minutes ago, UncleBuck said:

Vols, sure.  Aggy? The Houston Chomicle can try shoving it up everyone else's ass about how aggy is leading the way in NIL, but you can't fool most of us. They're not doing anything special with NIL...

But…Jimbo said NIL was something they didn’t rely on.

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3 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

There will be at least 3 guys just as good or better than Johnson who enter the portal over the next week before the May 1st deadline.

Be hilarious if Miami trapdoors Johnson after better options become available 

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2 hours ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

Awesome.  The two schools I least want to be successful - Vols and aggy - are all over this NIL stuff.

You're historically a solid poster so please don't take this the wrong way, but this is just a terrible, lazy, uninformed take for which you should be ashamed.

1 hour ago, NorLa Horns said:

Be hilarious if Miami trapdoors Johnson after better options become available 

What would be "hilarious" about that happening to Johnson?

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24 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

You're historically a solid poster so please don't take this the wrong way, but this is just a terrible, lazy, uninformed take for which you should be ashamed.

What would be "hilarious" about that happening to Johnson?

Is it the two teams I mentioned, or something else?

If it's the former, you haven't been subjected to "We're the real UT" half a million times like me.

If it's the latter, what am I missing besides incorrectly giving aggy credit for NIL prowess over blatant cheating?

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1 minute ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

Is it the two teams I mentioned, or something else?

If it's the former, you haven't been subjected to "We're the real UT" half a million times like me.

If it's the latter, what am I missing besides incorrectly giving aggy credit for NIL prowess over blatant cheating?

I think it's the confusing NIL with bags aspect.

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4 hours ago, texifornia said:

Soooo it's just European soccer. All the way down to the overhyped, overpriced 17 year olds.

*Disclaimer* Non-Olympic or World Cup soccer is boring imo, so I don't follow it. 

It's obvious the direction this is all going, and a football divorce from the NCAA is coming for half of the P5. That's maybe overstated, but I think it's more than one conference and within this decade. The dynamics are a bit different, but wasn't the ESL's primary issue that they didn't actually get FIFA onboard in a meaningful way? The NCAA's reach and enforcement ability is dwarfed in comparison to what FIFA does. It seems an ideal time to leak some sort of framework for the "American Super League: CFB Edition" to gauge public reaction, and I wonder if the people having these conversations are spooked by the ESL clusterfuck and/or are doubling down on fostering NCAA cooperation.

I just think you're exactly right here, and the sooner we can get these "deals" properly referred to as "contracts", the better for everyone involved. 

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32 minutes ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

*Disclaimer* Non-Olympic or World Cup soccer is boring imo, so I don't follow it. 

It's obvious the direction this is all going, and a football divorce from the NCAA is coming for half of the P5. That's maybe overstated, but I think it's more than one conference and within this decade. The dynamics are a bit different, but wasn't the ESL's primary issue that they didn't actually get FIFA onboard in a meaningful way? The NCAA's reach and enforcement ability is dwarfed in comparison to what FIFA does. It seems an ideal time to leak some sort of framework for the "American Super League: CFB Edition" to gauge public reaction, and I wonder if the people having these conversations are spooked by the ESL clusterfuck and/or are doubling down on fostering NCAA cooperation.

I just think you're exactly right here, and the sooner we can get these "deals" properly referred to as "contracts", the better for everyone involved. 

That was half of it. The other half was that the local fans instantly and viscerally hated it across every team. That led clubs like Chelsea, Man City, and PSG, whose entire purpose as a business is to be a giant PR billboard for whatever autocrat/oligarch they're owned by, to pull out almost immediately, because if they're not emotionally resonant for European voters than what's the point?

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1 hour ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

If it's the former, you haven't been subjected to "We're the real UT" half a million times like me.

I lived in Nashville from 98 to ‘06. Listening to those convict orange wearing hillbillies slobber on themselves about being the real “UT”, I can totally relate to this statement.

And as for aggy. Fuck em. 
 
Carry on sir. I concur with your earlier statement.

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6 hours ago, Hornlover said:

The only benefit that salary caps have in pro sports are to ensure that billionaire owners keep a higher percentage of profits than they otherwise would, thus ensuring some level of parity. Otherwise, some schmuck like Jerry Jones would gladly spend $10 billion of his own money if it would guarantee a Super Bowl victory. Other owners, like Woody Johnson or Jimmy Haslam would no longer field competitive teams, because they are more interested in milking profits than wins.

In the current college landscape, there's nothing preventing the billionaire from spending ungodly amounts of money to see his favorite team win. It probably "ends well" for the players, and the for teams that have extremely rich patrons willing to spend it to win. It probably doesn't end well for teams that don't. And as for parity? There hasn't been anything remotely resembling parity in College Football in a long, long, time. 

There is a lack of parity but the current path is likely to make it much worse. And it is not yet a slam dunk that this all shakes out with Texas near the top, although it should. Our administration has shown a significant lack of competence at times. 

The parity level right now isn’t so bad that it has ruined the yearly chase for titles, but a further narrowing of candidate teams would make it far less interesting. I think that’s where it’s going. 

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22 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

There is a lack of parity but the current path is likely to make it much worse. And it is not yet a slam dunk that this all shakes out with Texas near the top, although it should. Our administration has shown a significant lack of competence at times. 

The parity level right now isn’t so bad that it has ruined the yearly chase for titles, but a further narrowing of candidate teams would make it far less interesting. I think that’s where it’s going. 

The administration has shown a significant lack of competence for decades and decades and decades. It will continue to be much of the same until the alumni make it known.

Parity level isn't so bad that it has ruined the yearly chase for titles? You need to wake up on this one. That ended when payments met the internet. Parity left the door a long time ago. We can easily predict the very small pool of teams capable of winning a championship in today's college football. There will never be less parity than there has been the past decade.

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6 minutes ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

The administration has shown a significant lack of competence for decades and decades and decades. It will continue to be much of the same until the alumni make it known.

Parity level isn't so bad that it has ruined the yearly chase for titles? You need to wake up on this one. That ended when payments met the internet. Parity left the door a long time ago. We can easily predict the very small pool of teams capable of winning a championship in today's college football. There will never be less parity than there has been the past decade.

I said there is a lack of parity. What you want me to do, add hyperbolic adjectives on top?

The current NIL path is most likely going to make it worse. If you think parity is already so bad that it’s ruined college football, then do you think somehow the current path is going to make it better? What point are you trying to make? 

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2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I said there is a lack of parity. What you want me to do, add hyperbolic adjectives on top?

The current NIL path is most likely going to make it worse. If you think parity is already so bad that it’s ruined college football, then do you think somehow the current path is going to make it better? What point are you trying to make? 

maybe his username is checking out, or maybe it's not. I haven't decided, yet. 

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2 hours ago, texifornia said:

That was half of it. The other half was that the local fans instantly and viscerally hated it across every team. That led clubs like Chelsea, Man City, and PSG, whose entire purpose as a business is to be a giant PR billboard for whatever autocrat/oligarch they're owned by, to pull out almost immediately, because if they're not emotionally resonant for European voters than what's the point?

European Super League didn’t fail because FIFA wasn’t on board.  FIFA has little sway with club football.  It failed because the fans didn’t want it

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2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I said there is a lack of parity. What you want me to do, add hyperbolic adjectives on top?

The current NIL path is most likely going to make it worse. If you think parity is already so bad that it’s ruined college football, then do you think somehow the current path is going to make it better? What point are you trying to make? 

It literally can't get any worse. That's all I'm saying. It may help some like ATM join the list, but it can't get any worse. It may actually bring more parity than the past ten years. Yes, smaller schools will be eliminated but they were never winning it all. Texas was never winning another title in the old system, and it's going to take a mini alumni revolt (already happening IMO) for them to win in this era.

The below isn't directed at you but just an overview of the situation. (The below also isn't an excuse for Mack's laziness, which also hurt)

Mack was able to recruit in the late 90's and early 00's because Texas (w/ the assist of a journalist) had shutdown the gravy train by ATM and the rest of the SWC. In that era, assistants on college campuses were just paying high school coaches, parents, and recruits in person: "Here ya go. Have some money." When that ended, there was a decade stretch where teams were hesitant about cheating in the state of Texas. SEC slowly started creeping back into the state with a new strategy of 3rd party payments made thru lawyers to evade any possible sanctions. And ATM bought a DE (can't remember his name) in the early 00's and slowly built their way back. By the turn of the next decade, it was legal to pay players while following these guidelines. Add in the advancement of the internet and social media to advance national recruiting and no one but the programs willing to pay top dollar were ever going to win a championship. Over the past decade those programs are: Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, LSU, Oregon, Clemson, and USC (they are an unorganized mess, though). There are others playing this game, but they aren't paying top dollar.

With the addition of NIL, there's actually been more teams willing to enter and compete for these five-star players. It is making it more competitive.

Texas administration better wake the F up. But I've been saying that my entire life and I'm mid-40's now. 

For over 100 years, many elite recruits have been receiving way more than most want to admit. It's printed in the history books. Go read them. College football was never an amateur sport. It was once significantly larger than pro football back in the day and elite recruits were getting paid. The 200th ranked recruit in the country isn't an elite recruit, BTW. They don't move the needle. The 200th ranked recruit usually needs major development on campus and many of them don't even have the talent to develop. We humans are terrible evaluators and predictors of the future.

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33 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I said there is a lack of parity. What you want me to do, add hyperbolic adjectives on top?

The current NIL path is most likely going to make it worse. If you think parity is already so bad that it’s ruined college football, then do you think somehow the current path is going to make it better? What point are you trying to make? 

It's possible that with the way this is going, all of the teams that currently are viable CFP contenders will continue to be viable, plus maybe 5-10 teams like Texas, USC, Stanford that were afraid to play dirty, or teams like Ole Miss, A&M, or Tennessee that probably wouldn't make the CFP without paying can now pay enough to be competitive.

In the 8 year history of the CFP (so 32 possible teams), these are the teams that have made it. Basically, ten of the teams you would expect to have a shot, and 3 teams (Cincy, Washington, Mich St) that are unlikely to be frequent participants.

Alabama    13
Clemson    10
Ohio State    6
Oklahoma    4
Georgia    4
LSU    2
Notre Dame    2
Oregon    2
Cincinnati    1
Florida State    1
Michigan    1
Michigan State    1
Washington    1

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33 minutes ago, UncleBuck said:

maybe his username is checking out, or maybe it's not. I haven't decided, yet. 

He said the parity wasn't so bad  but could get worse. He's wrong. The new system has more teams scrambling to compete and pay players in order to make a run at titles. Before NIL, Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, LSU, USC, tOSU..may have missed one or two but the list of teams really competing to buy the top players was very small.

Now, the new system will eliminate the leech programs that don't belong at this level and that's going to healthy for the sport. 

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7 hours ago, texifornia said:

Soooo it's just European soccer. All the way down to the overhyped, overpriced 17 year olds.

Let's hope aggy isn't able to turn their Qatar campus into a wing of the PSG sportswashing machine.

Austin’s richest teenager plays soccer, Giovanni Reyna. I can only imagine the uproar if people would make if college kids got that kind of money. (Parents live here, probably not technically an Austin resident)

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20 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

It's possible that with the way this is going, all of the teams that currently are viable CFP contenders will continue to be viable, plus maybe 5-10 teams like Texas, USC, Stanford that were afraid to play dirty, or teams like Ole Miss, A&M, or Tennessee that probably wouldn't make the CFP without paying can now pay enough to be competitive.

In the 8 year history of the CFP (so 32 possible teams), these are the teams that have made it. Basically, ten of the teams you would expect to have a shot, and 3 teams (Cincy, Washington, Mich St) that are unlikely to be frequent participants.

Alabama    13
Clemson    10
Ohio State    6
Oklahoma    4
Georgia    4
LSU    2
Notre Dame    2
Oregon    2
Cincinnati    1
Florida State    1
Michigan    1
Michigan State    1
Washington    1

Math must actually be harder than I think it is.

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22 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

It's possible that with the way this is going, all of the teams that currently are viable CFP contenders will continue to be viable, plus maybe 5-10 teams like Texas, USC, Stanford that were afraid to play dirty, or teams like Ole Miss, A&M, or Tennessee that probably wouldn't make the CFP without paying can now pay enough to be competitive.

In the 8 year history of the CFP (so 32 possible teams), these are the teams that have made it. Basically, ten of the teams you would expect to have a shot, and 3 teams (Cincy, Washington, Mich St) that are unlikely to be frequent participants.

Alabama    13
Clemson    10
Ohio State    6
Oklahoma    4
Georgia    4
LSU    2
Notre Dame    2
Oregon    2
Cincinnati    1
Florida State    1
Michigan    1
Michigan State    1
Washington    1

Hm. A total of 48 appearance.

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9 minutes ago, Atticus said:

Math must actually be harder than I think it is.

 

5 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

Hm. A total of 48 appearance.

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He's counting total slots, including the 2 for the teams in the championship game.  So 6 per year.

 

 

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  • closetojumping changed the title to 2022 Transfer Thread - It's the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)

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