Jump to content

Realignment talk not going away


The Tower

Recommended Posts

Big 12 expands or dies. 

Have to think it’ll be death. The B12 could put together a conference that does notably better financially than the current AAC between bigger football brands, elite basketball, and potential playoff expansion (into which it would still likely get a team more often than not).

That said, they won’t sniff current power 5 revenue levels, let alone what’s currently coming in from the B12. All it takes is a couple schools bolting for greener pastures and it all falls apart.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I don't think the Pac 12 needed to do anything just for the sake of expanding. If Oregon or USC goes 11-1, they have a great shot of getting into the playoff. They absolutely need to expand the playoff to ensure they'll always get it. Adding Tech, oSu, or TCU wasn't going to make the Pac 12 that much stronger. The Alliance is actually exactly what the Pac 12 needed. Get some ACC and Big 10 OOC opponents on each team's schedule while also not further watering down your conference. USC and Oregon weren't going to be happy adding reach teams.

Just like Texas and Oklahoma weren’t going to be happy to add teams in the Big 12.  A few years down the road when the Big Ten’s TV contract is up USC, Oregon, UCLA, and Colorado are going to get their invite and soon thereafter the rest of the AAU PAC schools will follow.

This is why the Big 12’s best option right now is to expand East.  Houston, Cincy, Memphis and UCF.  The AAC is the next best conference, so picking off its jewels is just good business sense plus it’s been proven Eastern viewers are more desirable/profitable.  The MWC is good but they have nowhere to go other than the PAC and they are contained in the Western half of the country.  After the PAC implodes the Big 12 can add a Western wing WSU, OrSU, ASU, Boise St, BYU, San Diego St, Colorado St, etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

It's somewhat interesting that some of the conference leadership and schools' leaders are trying to play the PR game against Texas and Oklahoma and seem to be counting on those two not wanting to be seen as the supervillains.

Guess what? You've made Texas out to be the supervillain for decades so I think you're going to find that doesn't work out as well as you'd hoped. You've bitched about Texas being evil and the bad guy for an entire generation. I think we can handle a little bit more of your bitter whining after playing the sovereign immunity card. I don't know about Oklahoma, but it's some of the greatest institutional schadenfreude I can imagine to watch all the years of shit-talking Texas to every media personality who would listen come back to bite these idiots in the ass.

TWO generations! 

As many of us older folks will attest, this "Texas is Nosferatu/the Devil/Evil" BS was happening since the early '70s at least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I think it's Grant of Rights lawsuit time for Texas and OU. 

The Big 12 isn't going away organically. 

UT/OU will just announce their intentions to leave and claim the GOR is not enforceable.  The Big 12 will be the one filing the lawsuit and UT will counter-sue for any money they owe us from 2021-22 season.  They’ll either quickly settle or test the GOR and sovereign immunity in court.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

UT/OU will just announce their intentions to leave and claim the GOR is not enforceable.  The Big 12 will be the one filing the lawsuit and UT will counter-sue for any money they owe us from 2021-22 season.  They’ll either quickly settle or test the GOR and sovereign immunity in court.

Who cares about eh GOR money?? It's pocket change over the long-term? 

However, if I was OK, I would enjoy my shot at the CFB Playoff now because it's those playoff appearances are going to be few and far between in the SEC. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"...With the announcement Thursday that the Pac-12 Conference will not explore expansion in the near future, the fracturing Big 12 will throw its energy into looking at potential new members, Kirby Hocutt said.

The Texas Tech athletics director is part of a four-person expansion subcommittee tasked with leading the effort, which starts immediately.

"Right now, our complete focus is to make the Big 12 as strong as it can possibly be," Hocutt said, "and I expect that Texas Tech will play a leadership role in that. We're going to continue to be part of the power-five structure in college athletics."

Williams column:Pac-12's decision latest body blow to Big 12

Hocutt said Baylor AD Mack Rhoades, Kansas Chancellor Doug Girod and Iowa State President Wendy Wintersteen are the others on the subcommittee. The Big 12 in the past few days has enlisted Oliver Luck, the former West Virginia AD and XFL commissioner, as a consultant to aide in working through realignment. 

 

Describing the group as already "active," Hocutt said they will meet with the Big 12 presidents early Friday and will have in-person meetings next week involving Big 12 athletics directors and media and television consultants...."

 

https://www.lubbockonline.com/story/sports/college/football/2021/08/26/college-sports-kirby-hocutt-says-big-12-expansion-plans-under-way/5607522001/

So the Big 12 is moving ahead.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

That's my point.

I fully expect ESPN to be working full-time to get OU/Texas into the SEC ASAP without having to pay exit fees. The quickest way to make that happen is to get the Big 12's best leftovers (likely OSU, WVU, KU, ISU, TTU) placed somewhere they find acceptable, thus the conference blows up on its own and nobody pays exit fees and everyone goes on their merry ways.

So the PAC or the B1G or the ACC may say we're not expanding "at this time" but that's just talk. As soon as the details are worked out and the money is there, the "time" will be correct.

I don't think it matters one way or another what the Big 12 "decides" to do, vis a vis expansion. The only way it makes sense to expand now is if OU/Texas exit the league via exit fees before most of the other leftovers have a place to land and the conference continues to exist through 2025 without OU/Texas and you literally just need warm bodies to limp to 2025. Because the entire CFB landscape will be different, one way or another, by 2025.

 

Yeah I think ESPNs miscalc was thinking they thought their best offer was joining AAC.   I mean, even in the worst scenario the remaining 8 are better than the AAC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/25/2021 at 9:13 PM, HornsofBevo said:

For survival, the irate 8 should add BYU, Cincinnati, Memphis and Houston. Go with divisions of

North

BYU-Iowa state-Kansas- KSU-Cincinnati-WVU

South

Texas Tech-Okie Lite-TCU-Baylor-Houston-Memphis 

 

aint nobody got time for that GIF

Nobody will watch

Edited by Bodhi
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does anyone really think the SECSECSEC is gonna stand at 16?

The SECSECSEC is pushing for a new league, not just a new improved conference.

The lame alliance presser yesterday and the PAC's announcement today says that they're perfectly happy to remain living in the past. 

I fully expect the SECSECSEC to go ahead and make the move to 20-24 rather quickly and it'll probably includes some of the leftover 8 which would also move the needle closer to getting out of the B12's GOR.

Grab Tech, oSu from B12 and FSU, Clemson from ACC to get to 20 and make overtures to SC, Oregon, Mich, tOSU to see how serious they are about their devotion to the Rose Bowl.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, BluTechsan said:

Does anyone really think the SECSECSEC is gonna stand at 16?

The SECSECSEC is pushing for a new league, not just a new improved conference.

The lame alliance presser yesterday and the PAC's announcement today says that they're perfectly happy to remain living in the past. 

I fully expect the SECSECSEC to go ahead and make the move to 20-24 rather quickly and it'll probably includes some of the leftover 8 which would also move the needle closer to getting out of the B12's GOR.

Grab Tech, oSu from B12 and FSU, Clemson from ACC to get to 20 and make overtures to SC, Oregon, Mich, tOSU to see how serious they are about their devotion to the Rose Bowl.

 

Question Marks GIFs | Tenor

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, BluTechsan said:

Does anyone really think the SECSECSEC is gonna stand at 16?

The SECSECSEC is pushing for a new league, not just a new improved conference.

The lame alliance presser yesterday and the PAC's announcement today says that they're perfectly happy to remain living in the past. 

I fully expect the SECSECSEC to go ahead and make the move to 20-24 rather quickly and it'll probably includes some of the leftover 8 which would also move the needle closer to getting out of the B12's GOR.

Grab Tech, oSu from B12 and FSU, Clemson from ACC to get to 20 and make overtures to SC, Oregon, Mich, tOSU to see how serious they are about their devotion to the Rose Bowl.

I think the SEC will be content at 16 for some time as long as the ‘alliance’ doesn’t do something stupid like block the playoff, limit the SEC’s access, or boycott playing the SEC.  This also assumes the Big Ten doesn’t raid or merge with the PAC12 making a 24 team league either.

If they do any of those things all bets are off. Inviting Florida State, Clemson, Nebraska, and Penn State would be the good first moves because those schools are big names (yes even Nebraska) that aren’t completely locked in on smelling their own farts like Michigan/tOSU or UNC/Duke/UVA.  If those jump you’ve just crippled your competition.  Then you can approach Ohio State, Notre Dame, and USC, if they still don’t come over the TV money will eventually force their hand even if it takes a decade. But if they do come over the rest will follow and the SEC will just be cherry picking who it wants for its new all sports college league.

Still I think staying at 16 is the most likely scenario for the next 10-15 years.

Edited by TKthunder2
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

You're obviously much smarter than me. Explain to me why the SEC needs Tech. 

 

They don't.

But the BIG/PAC just proved they are no longer interested in big boy football - well, the future of big boy anyway - they still want to hold onto the past.

The SECSECSEC would have been fine with 16 if everyone else moved that way too. Why? Because the Big12 would have been spread around and it would be officially dead. No GORs. No payouts. 

The news of this week shows that the BIG/PAC are unwilling to play their role in this re-imagining of CFB as we know it.

The SECSECSEC will move the needle forward on their own if they have to and it is at that juncture we now sit. ESPN is driving this as well as it is they who are writing the checks. If taking a couple more BIG12 teams does that (dissolving the conference) then yeah, that's exactly what they'll do.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Fuck You 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, BluTechsan said:

 

They don't.

But the BIG/PAC just proved they are no longer interested in big boy football - well, the future of big boy anyway - they still want to hold onto the past.

The SECSECSEC would have been fine with 16 if everyone else moved that way too. Why? Because the Big12 would have been spread around and it would be officially dead. No GORs. No payouts. 

The news of this week shows that the BIG/PAC are unwilling to play their role in this re-imagining of CFB as we know it.

The SECSECSEC will move the needle forward on their own if they have to and it is at that juncture we now sit. ESPN is driving this as well as it is they who are writing the checks. If taking a couple more BIG12 teams does that (dissolving the conference) then yeah, that's exactly what they'll do.

You’re worse than the Tech regards already counting PAC 12 wins. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Look, I'm not a fan of the new future of CFB either but I'm not sure I can deny that a massive downsizing is the further ala an NFL lite style league free from the shackles of the NCAA.

The SECSECSEC's move to add OU and Texas was the latest step in that direction.

Had the BIG/PAC/ACC all followed suit, the first culling of the herd would have occurred with 64 teams being the magic number in a neat and tidy 4x16 setup.

And it's theorized that after a few years another downsizing down to 32 would occur. Yikes! That leaves out a lot of good teams. Definitely not a fan of that but one thing to be certain of, if you want to be one of the 32, you best be one of the 64.

This would have, more than likely, given a landing spot to most of the remaining B12 and that league would be no more. So yeah, Tech and oSu were hoping for a landing spot in the PAC.

But if the 4x16 does not happen, then the push to 32 or perhaps 48 might happen sooner than later and it is that scenario in which Tech and oSu to the SECSECSEC is entirely possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, BluTechsan said:

Look, I'm not a fan of the new future of CFB either but I'm not sure I can deny that a massive downsizing is the further ala an NFL lite style league free from the shackles of the NCAA.

The SECSECSEC's move to add OU and Texas was the latest step in that direction.

Had the BIG/PAC/ACC all followed suit, the first culling of the herd would have occurred with 64 teams being the magic number in a neat and tidy 4x16 setup.

And it's theorized that after a few years another downsizing down to 32 would occur. Yikes! That leaves out a lot of good teams. Definitely not a fan of that but one thing to be certain of, if you want to be one of the 32, you best be one of the 64.

This would have, more than likely, given a landing spot to most of the remaining B12 and that league would be no more. So yeah, Tech and oSu were hoping for a landing spot in the PAC.

But if the 4x16 does not happen, then the push to 32 or perhaps 48 might happen sooner than later and it is that scenario in which Tech and oSu to the SECSECSEC is entirely possible.

 

92483da97c175c55011de69862acae9f-4.jpg

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
  • Haha 2
  • Fuck You 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Asu2215 said:

Who cares about eh GOR money?? It's pocket change over the long-term? 

However, if I was OK, I would enjoy my shot at the CFB Playoff now because it's those playoff appearances are going to be few and far between in the SEC. 

Imagine thinking the conferences will turn down added money from ESPN for the CFB Playoff expansion.

 

Pay whatever it takes to get out of the GOR with the Big 12 and lets all move on. People are just riding this wave and in a season it will be forgotten. Especially if a PAC or BIG team is left out.

Edited by BurntOrange&White
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bobby:

 

Quote

It seems like every day this week there has been “new” news surrounding conference realignment.

It started on Monday with the announcement of an “alliance” between the ACC, Big 10 and Pac-12 which reeks of desperation.

Then college football newsbreaker Dave Wannstedt somehow got the inside scoop that the Big 10, Pac-12 and ACC were all expanding.

And, finally, yesterday the Pac-12 officially announced it had no intention of expanding on the horizon, while Texas Tech’s AD said the Big 12 was focused on expansion.

**

First let me try to encapsulate what the various conferences in the Alliance agreed to in one sentence:

The conferences agreed to agree on future agreements.

That’s it. Nothing more. Nothing of any true substance.

When asked about the tenuous nature of such an “alliance”, new Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff said “it is an agreement between three gentlemen (the three commissioners) and 41 universities.”

Wow.

This alliance, for lack of a better term, reminds me of the so-called alliances between participants in a reality show like Survivor.


“Let’s be friends… until your interests no longer match with mine,” is a more accurate representation.

What’s more, the very the next day, the most notable football school in the Pac-12 agreed to play someone outside the alliance and inside the dreaded SEC. Hypocrisy and grand-standing at its finest.

**

The comments by Fox’s Wannstedt merit zero consideration. Why Fox continues to make a mockery of itself in college football coverage I will never understand.

**

The Pac-12’s current outlook on expansion and the Big 12’s apparent decision to expand were the two truly more worthwhile notes of the week.

The Pac-12 made itself clear. There are no slips available for any Big 12 school wanting safe harbor.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech AD Kirby Hocutt told reporters that he is one of four members of a sub-committee focused on Big 12 expansion.

More power to him, and them.

The Big 12 is rudderless without Texas and OU. They don’t and won’t command a seat at the table for major TV agreements. They just don’t have the following.

And even if the Big 12 lures away Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis and Central Florida, the conference will still be a shadow of its former self.

So what does this all news from this week mean?

Not much on the whole.


The “alliance” isn’t really much of anything. And, just as has been predicted, the remaining members of the Big 12 are going to have to scratch and claw for every dollar and ounce of legitimacy they can get.

100% agree with Bobby on all the bolded.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Big 12 bylaws require 8 votes for expansion. Texas and OU could do some horse trading or prevent Big 12 expansion/survival, but can they get another no vote? I would say yes. Any school that desperately wants to leave the conference would probably vote no. I'm looking at you Kansas and OK State. 

I'd think both UT and OU would abstain from participating in and voting on Big 12 expansion. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually, this gives UT and OU negotiating power. If the B12 wants to enforce buyout rules, we can force participation in voting rules. In effect, two “no” votes from UT and OU means any expansion candidate requires unanimity from the others. In other words, TCU, TT or BU can individually blackball UH (or any other candidate). 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, statsman said:

Actually, this gives UT and OU negotiating power. If the B12 wants to enforce buyout rules, we can force participation in voting rules. In effect, two “no” votes from UT and OU means any expansion candidate requires unanimity from the others. In other words, TCU, TT or BU can individually blackball UH (or any other candidate). 

Get Kansas or WVU to vote no and Big 12 expansion is dead.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Is It Though GIFs | Tenor

Yes. Dropping off Tulsa, ECU, Temple, and Tulane is good for Cincy, UCF, and Memphis. The same logic behind OUUT dropping off KU, KSU, and ISU for the SEC. The rumor mill is that those AAC schools would probably go from somewhere around $7M/yr to $15M/yr.

Edited by SimonBolivar
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, BluTechsan said:

But if the 4x16 does not happen, then the push to 32 or perhaps 48 might happen sooner than later and it is that scenario in which Tech and oSu to the SECSECSEC is entirely possible.

If the SEC expanded it would be with ACC schools.  Just about any ACC school (not named Wake Forest) from Miami to Pitt in the North would do more for the SEC than tripling down on the state of Texas or doubling down on the small state of Oklahoma.

If they expand, it would have to be to get to 20, 24, or more and the Big 12 doesn’t provide enough quality for them to take even 4 teams which limits how many times the SEC can showcase games between its top 8 fb schools, as none of the Big 12 expansion candidates would be of that caliber.

If they add schools like Neb/PSU then you might see them add a few Big 12 schools to round out the numbers but it would likely be Kansas (to pair with Neb, OU, and Mizzou) or West Virginia (to connect Penn St).  If they take FSU/Clemson then there are far more options readily available to the East that would be more desirable (UNC, Duke, UVA, VT…just imagine the basketball you could have with UK, KU, UNC, and Duke in the same conference)

Tech and Okie State’s best hope is the PAC re-evaluates their membership as they get closer to their next TV deal because putting any hope that the SEC comes calling is not a good bet.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

If the SEC expanded it would be with ACC schools.  Just about any ACC school (not named Wake Forest) from Miami to Pitt in the North would do more for the SEC than tripling down on the state of Texas or doubling down on the small state of Oklahoma.

If they expand, it would have to be to get to 20, 24, or more and the Big 12 doesn’t provide enough quality for them to take even 4 teams which limits how many times the SEC can showcase games between its top 8 fb schools, as none of the Big 12 expansion candidates would be of that caliber.

If they add schools like Neb/PSU then you might see them add a few Big 12 schools to round out the numbers but it would likely be Kansas (to pair with Neb, OU, and Mizzou) or West Virginia (to connect Penn St).  If they take FSU/Clemson then there are far more options readily available to the East that would be more desirable (UNC, Duke, UVA, VT…just imagine the basketball you could have with UK, KU, UNC, and Duke in the same conference)

Tech and Okie State’s best hope is the PAC re-evaluates their membership as they get closer to their next TV deal because putting any hope that the SEC comes calling is not a good bet.

 

I agree that Tech and oSu are not their top targets. But (a) they help solve the GOR issue with the Big12 and (b) they further solidify the huge Texas market (c) ESPN and the SECSECSEC aren't building a conference, they are building a league and somebody has to be the Detroit Lions of said league

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, BluTechsan said:

 

They don't.

But the BIG/PAC just proved they are no longer interested in big boy football - well, the future of big boy anyway - they still want to hold onto the past.

The SECSECSEC would have been fine with 16 if everyone else moved that way too. Why? Because the Big12 would have been spread around and it would be officially dead. No GORs. No payouts. 

The news of this week shows that the BIG/PAC are unwilling to play their role in this re-imagining of CFB as we know it.

The SECSECSEC will move the needle forward on their own if they have to and it is at that juncture we now sit. ESPN is driving this as well as it is they who are writing the checks. If taking a couple more BIG12 teams does that (dissolving the conference) then yeah, that's exactly what they'll do.

This entire post pre-supposes an endgame but doesn't explain WHY the SEC would move that direction.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do it! We can push our way out faster if BYU gets the ball rolling.
 

BYU is probably the single best football add available in terms of both prestige and brand. They just bring nothing else to the table and the Mormon thing is toxic to the PAC 12, which would be their natural P5 fit. This league has Baylor though so no one cares.

Boise State is a good add for football competitiveness but I’m not sure what they bring in terms of revenue.

Cincinnati is probably the next best add from an all around competitiveness/new market/WVU travel partner standpoint. Bring Memphis with them to juice basketball further and provide a geographic bridge.

It’s a weird 12 for sure, island of misfit toys vibe, but it’s a decently competitive football league. No worse than the ACC sans Clemson and probably not far behind the PAC 12. Probably get a playoff team pretty consistently in a 12 team model. Elite basketball league. It could sort of work, absurd as it is.

I’m sure it would improve on AAC revenue but not approach P5. So all it takes is a couple schools like KU or WVU deciding they don’t want to take that huge haircut and it all falls apart.
  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, statsman said:

Actually, this gives UT and OU negotiating power. If the B12 wants to enforce buyout rules, we can force participation in voting rules. In effect, two “no” votes from UT and OU means any expansion candidate requires unanimity from the others. In other words, TCU, TT or BU can individually blackball UH (or any other candidate). 

I thought that once a school notifies the conference of intent to leave that they're no longer a voting member for things like that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

UT and OU haven’t given any notice of an intent to leave before the GOR is up. 

Still can't vote once notification of intent to leave has been sent. Texas and Oklahoma are now officially Withdrawing Members.

image.png.cb232861e4b06c121964c35a7f8be688.png

image.png.dc74f7ed2cc4f2179ad6b87ae1ee6f12.png

Edited by Huckleberry
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just assume we are out 80M because it sounds like both schools are prepared to pay if that’s what it takes. If Ok State or Tech really do try to cobble together a 10 team Southwest Conference like setup for a few years to collect 20M a school instead of trying to find a permanent home ASAP, they deserve to be permanently relegated to a lower division. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Newy25 said:

Just assume we are out 80M because it sounds like both schools are prepared to pay if that’s what it takes. If Ok State or Tech really do try to cobble together a 10 team Southwest Conference like setup for a few years to collect 20M a school instead of trying to find a permanent home ASAP, they deserve to be permanently relegated to a lower division. 

I think the bigger issue is whether or not they have a choice. I think they're getting screwed by the Pac-12 being antiquated and myopic at this point.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...