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Joe Biden 2023: The Dark Brandon Rises


StassneyHorn

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19 minutes ago, Captainant said:

 

 

Lulz id love to see the venn diagram of yalls outrage over this vs your outrage over when the last guy you voted for saluted a North Korean general in front of a communist dictator. 

Exactly.

”Our chief concern is whether our leaders show decorum to others and whether they display any evidence of mental illness!!”

—GOP voter 2023

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1 hour ago, GopherRock said:

 

 

1) owned the libs

2) primal MAGA yells 

3) prevent the dems from doing anything to improve non-rich folks lives

4) take away access to needed programs that help the poor

oh yeah……how do GOP candidates get more than 10% of the nationwide vote again? 

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8 hours ago, mchookem said:

i mean... is someone arguing he's not a dictator? we are talking about chinese China, right?

8 hours ago, aggie08 said:

Wait, I thought Biden was in China's back pocket?

Well, you see, with Republicans, Biden is not doing enough to stand up to China and to support Taiwan and he won't defend Taiwan, but then if he pushes for more funding for Taiwan or for closer ties with Taiwan, or legislation that helps encourage American companies to move some of their operations out of China, or calls Xi a dictator, then he's trying to get us in a war with China.

Because you see, this is what a proper leader does when faced with adversarial Asian leaders

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I'm only going to say one thing about polling and then I'm probably done with it until summer.

It is bad. 

There's something completely broken with it right now, and I have a hunch it is non-response bias, but the opposite direction of 2020.  In 2020, more likely than not, Dem-leaning voters were staying home, avoiding COVID and were around to answer the phone. Hence why Biden had much better polling numbers than his 2020 results. 

2022 and 2023 and 2024? I just don't think Dems are answering the phone, period. Poll after poll showing Trump/GOP winning young voters, even against non-Biden candidates, and 1/3 of black voters?  Fundamentally wrong. It is not going to happen.  

Anecdotally, my AT&T spam app on my phone shows it has blocked 7 political calls in the last 5 days. I don't even get notification these were blocked, so I sure as hell am not going to answer them. They could be fundraising, they could be polling - either way, they're blocked and my phone doesn't even make a noise. 

Polling is just a tool - feed bad data in, you get bad data out of it.  2022 midterms + 2023 special elections are much more indicative of 2024 than polling.  It is a business that needs to just be put out to pasture. 

Edited by Js1
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5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I'm only going to say one thing about polling and then I'm probably done with it until summer.

It is bad. 

There's something completely broken with it right now, and I have a hunch it is non-response bias, but the opposite direction of 2020.  In 2020, more likely than not, Dem-leaning voters were staying home, avoiding COVID and were around to answer the phone. Hence why Biden had much better polling numbers than his 2020 results. 

2022 and 2023 and 2024? I just don't think Dems are answering the phone, period. Poll after poll showing Trump/GOP winning young voters, even against non-Biden candidates, and 1/3 of black voters?  Fundamentally wrong. It is not going to happen.  

Anecdotally, my AT&T spam app on my phone shows it has blocked 7 political calls in the last 5 days. I don't even get notification these were blocked, so I sure as hell am not going to answer them. They could be fundraising, they could be polling - either way, they're blocked and my phone doesn't even make a noise. 

Polling is just a tool - feed bad data in, you get bad data out of it.  2022 midterms + 2023 special elections are much more indicative of 2024 than polling.  It is a business that needs to just be put out to pasture. 

NO ONE under 40 answers their phone, not even for people they know.  And they don’t respond to spam texts.  I am not sure how you accurately poll people under 40 but it isn’t over the phone or via email.  Most people in their 40s are the same way.  Polling via phone is only going to accurately gauge the over 50 vote.

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10 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

NO ONE under 40 answers their phone, not even for people they know.  And they don’t respond to spam texts.  I am not sure how you accurately poll people under 40 but it isn’t over the phone or via email.  Most people in their 40s are the same way.  Polling via phone is only going to accurately gauge the over 50 vote.

I would amend that to under 60.  My old job had a customer demo of mainly age 40-70 and it was like pulling teeth to get someone to answer a call.  Email or text?  A lot better.  Yet the higher ups couldn't understand it just kept wanting us to hammer people with calls.  

Meanwhile, in Europe, where they actually have laws about spam calls, they answer their phones all the time.  This is an American problem.

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1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

Meanwhile, in Europe, where they actually have laws about spam calls, they answer their phones all the time.  This is an American problem.

FCC don't give a FUCK about protecting communications and forcing telcoms to actually implement the STIR/SHAKEN framework to prevent the rampant phone number spoofing that's really the main issue with the spam calls.

Good 'ol regulatory capture

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5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I would amend that to under 60.  My old job had a customer demo of mainly age 40-70 and it was like pulling teeth to get someone to answer a call.  Email or text?  A lot better.  Yet the higher ups couldn't understand it just kept wanting us to hammer people with calls.  

Meanwhile, in Europe, where they actually have laws about spam calls, they answer their phones all the time.  This is an American problem.

I think 40-70 is a grey area where the tendency is correlated with rural vs urban.  Rural people in their 40s probably answer their phones a lot more than city folk in their 50s, and city folk in their 60s probably don’t answer their phones much at all.  That is just my observation of my own social network so it could be way off.  But I think it’s something that has changed significantly since 2016.

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16 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

NO ONE under 40 answers their phone, not even for people they know.  And they don’t respond to spam texts.  I am not sure how you accurately poll people under 40 but it isn’t over the phone or via email.  Most people in their 40s are the same way.  Polling via phone is only going to accurately gauge the over 50 vote.

I would agree with @Biff Tannen that the age is up into the 50s - I don’t know anybody under the age of 60 that answers unknown calls anymore, unless they are expecting a callback or something.  Caller ID was a thing in the 80s and 90s so even the boomers have long been used to knowing who is calling, but some of the them are still of the mindset of “oh my gosh somebody actually wants to talk to me!”

 I recently had to use customer support for a company, and I wanted a human and didn’t want chat, so the website literally did a countdown of sorts letting me know within 60 seconds that I’d be getting a call and what the number would be. I would bet that was because too many people ignored unknown or random calls.  

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33 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I'm only going to say one thing about polling and then I'm probably done with it until summer.

It is bad. 

There's something completely broken with it right now, and I have a hunch it is non-response bias, but the opposite direction of 2020.  In 2020, more likely than not, Dem-leaning voters were staying home, avoiding COVID and were around to answer the phone. Hence why Biden had much better polling numbers than his 2020 results. 

2022 and 2023 and 2024? I just don't think Dems are answering the phone, period. Poll after poll showing Trump/GOP winning young voters, even against non-Biden candidates, and 1/3 of black voters?  Fundamentally wrong. It is not going to happen.  

Anecdotally, my AT&T spam app on my phone shows it has blocked 7 political calls in the last 5 days. I don't even get notification these were blocked, so I sure as hell am not going to answer them. They could be fundraising, they could be polling - either way, they're blocked and my phone doesn't even make a noise. 

Polling is just a tool - feed bad data in, you get bad data out of it.  2022 midterms + 2023 special elections are much more indicative of 2024 than polling.  It is a business that needs to just be put out to pasture. 

I can't see how the overwhelming increase in spam and scam calls over the past 7-10 years (not sure when it really started but it seems like it really boomed under Ajit Pai, before carriers and phone manufacturers began implementing better blocking tech) could be anything other than catastrophic for the reliability of phone polling. 

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5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I can't see how the overwhelming increase in spam and scam calls over the past 7-10 years (not sure when it really started but it seems like it really boomed under Ajit Pai, before carriers and phone manufacturers began implementing better blocking tech) could be anything other than catastrophic for the reliability of phone polling. 

I am on the "do not call" list and have been since it came out.  It don't make a shit. I get a constant parade of such calls, probably 75% or more are spoofed numbers.  FCC don't care.  Carriers don't care.

The helluvit is, I often have to answer, because it will be an unknown number from a town where I actually have a client contact.  Are they calling me from a number I don't know yet (I don't have the cell of every one of my client contacts)?  So, I answer.  If it's spam, I just say "Fuck off" and hang up.  I don't answer polls, I block their number.  And I ain't young.

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44 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I'm only going to say one thing about polling and then I'm probably done with it until summer.

It is bad. 

There's something completely broken with it right now, and I have a hunch it is non-response bias, but the opposite direction of 2020.  In 2020, more likely than not, Dem-leaning voters were staying home, avoiding COVID and were around to answer the phone. Hence why Biden had much better polling numbers than his 2020 results. 

2022 and 2023 and 2024? I just don't think Dems are answering the phone, period. Poll after poll showing Trump/GOP winning young voters, even against non-Biden candidates, and 1/3 of black voters?  Fundamentally wrong. It is not going to happen.  

Anecdotally, my AT&T spam app on my phone shows it has blocked 7 political calls in the last 5 days. I don't even get notification these were blocked, so I sure as hell am not going to answer them. They could be fundraising, they could be polling - either way, they're blocked and my phone doesn't even make a noise. 

Polling is just a tool - feed bad data in, you get bad data out of it.  2022 midterms + 2023 special elections are much more indicative of 2024 than polling.  It is a business that needs to just be put out to pasture. 

Michael-scott-thank-you GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

 

Motion to insta-neg anyone who posts any polling because it's all junk and clickbait. Do you second?

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46 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

NO ONE under 40 answers their phone, not even for people they know.  And they don’t respond to spam texts.  I am not sure how you accurately poll people under 40 but it isn’t over the phone or via email.  Most people in their 40s are the same way.  Polling via phone is only going to accurately gauge the over 50 vote.

Us olds are going to cringe at this, but I think the answer is TikTok / Instagram, etc. We have to "meet them where they are at" as the old saying goes.

Consider:

Nearly a third (32%) of Americans ages 18–29 regularly get news from TikTok.

And 43% of TikTok users overall say they get news on the platform, up from 33% last year.

 https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/15/more-americans-are-getting-news-on-tiktok-bucking-the-trend-seen-on-most-other-social-media-sites/

A bar chart showing that about a third of U.S. adults under 30 now regularly get news on TikTok.

 

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Shit, the more polls that come out with Trump ahead, the better. I think a lot of people have readjusted to something resembling their political normalcy pre-Trump, where they can ignore it for the most part, and it doesn't dominate their daily news feeds. Which is a good thing for everyone's sanity, but it probably breeds complacency. A couple reminders that we're dangerously close to electing these idiots again can't hurt.

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6 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

I'm not an old, but also not on TikTok. How do you get news from there?

Independent journalists and reporters who have accounts and get "stitched" by their followers and influencers. Or it can be traditional journalists whose articles get discussed by TikTokers. It's no different from how twitter and youtube were used in the 10s

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28 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

No one under 50 is taking the time to fill out a survey/poll/questionnaire. It doesn't mater what format. Phone/email/TikTok

People are constantly overwhelmed by information in this world. Most people are fatigued by it. No one is filling out a poll

 

I did a text one the other day.  It was the first political poll I've ever been asked to participate in in my life.  It turned out to be right wing bullshit questions, but still. 

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4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I did a text one the other day.  It was the first political poll I've ever been asked to participate in in my life.  It turned out to be right wing bullshit questions, but still. 

And there’s your other portion - right wing spam. Flood the zone, set the narrative. (See: 2022)

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10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And there’s your other portion - right wing spam. Flood the zone, set the narrative. (See: 2022)

I agree polls are becoming less reliable, but I also believe Joe Biden has become less popular with the left and with moderates. Whether that hurts him in the general election depends mainly on the particular states that matter (GA, MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ) and if Biden's 2020 voters plan to stay home, vote third party, or even vote Trump. It's wishful thinking to assume his drop in popularity won't hurt him. He needs to turn this around. "Dark Brandon" has been absent of late.

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I’ve responded STOP to every single fundraising text I’ve gotten the past couple of months. All democratic fundraising. Media would probably run with omg Democratic enthusiasm is down and they’re headed for catastrophe!! Nah, I just don’t need to be bombarded with texts telling me the world is ending. We’ve got all next year for anxiety. Imma chill right now

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4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I agree polls are becoming less reliable, but I also believe Joe Biden has become less popular with the left and with moderates. Whether that hurts him in the general election depends mainly on the particular states that matter (GA, MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ) and if Biden's 2020 voters plan to stay home, vote third party, or even vote Trump. It's wishful thinking to assume his drop in popularity won't hurt him. He needs to turn this around. "Dark Brandon" has been absent of late.

Actually about 4 diff polls have his approval around 45% as of this week. But that doesn’t get reported. 

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10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Actually about 4 diff polls have his approval around 45% as of this week. But that doesn’t get reported. 

I hope you are right but I don't need a weatherman to know where the wind blows. My opinion don't make a shit and quite frankly neither do national polls. It's all about those six states.

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2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

NO ONE under 40 answers their phone, not even for people they know.

Correct... and in fact I saw a person post a video whining about getting cold called.  Their definition of cold call?  A friend calling out of the blue without sending a text.  

Always Sunny Eye Roll GIF

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3 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Correct... and in fact I saw a person post a video whining about getting cold called.  Their definition of cold call?  A friend calling out of the blue without sending a text.  

If a friend or relative calls me out of the blue without a text, I assume something bad has happened…

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1 hour ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I’ve responded STOP to every single fundraising text I’ve gotten the past couple of months. All democratic fundraising. Media would probably run with omg Democratic enthusiasm is down and they’re headed for catastrophe!! Nah, I just don’t need to be bombarded with texts telling me the world is ending. We’ve got all next year for anxiety. Imma chill right now

This is a good way to get put on every spam call list there is.  Responding in any way lets them know there is a real person on your line reading their shit and leads to proliferation.  Report as spam then block is your best remedy. 

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1 minute ago, Horn Dog said:

This is a good way to get put on every spam call list there is.  Responding in any way lets them know there is a real person on your line reading their shit and leads to proliferation.  Report as spam then block is your best remedy. 

🤷🏽‍♂️ I haven’t been getting any since I did that 

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1 hour ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I’ve responded STOP to every single fundraising text I’ve gotten the past couple of months. All democratic fundraising. Media would probably run with omg Democratic enthusiasm is down and they’re headed for catastrophe!! Nah, I just don’t need to be bombarded with texts telling me the world is ending. We’ve got all next year for anxiety. Imma chill right now

Dem strategy seems to be:

"See? SEE?! Look how bad the Rs are, please give us money so we can continue being somewhat less bad and do absolutely nothing for you in return."

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21 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Dem strategy seems to be:

"See? SEE?! Look how bad the Rs are, please give us money so we can continue being somewhat less bad and do absolutely nothing for you in return."

"somewhat less bad"?  "do absolutely nothing for you in return"?  I mean, not sure what you are looking for exactly, but keeping a functioning democracy and not openly grifting the dumbest people in America out of all of their money seems pretty ok to me.

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

"somewhat less bad"?  "do absolutely nothing for you in return"?  I mean, not sure what you are looking for exactly, but keeping a functioning democracy and not openly grifting the dumbest people in America out of all of their money seems pretty ok to me.

Yes, I'm just saying that the D strategy is now to just point at the GOP and say "see how much they suck?", which of course they do, and then just effectively do nothing but maintain the status quo while coming up with excuses as to why nothing can get done, GOP obstructionist politics notwithstanding.

Of course, with how quickly this country is spiraling into fascism, maybe that's the best we can do.

Everyone loses.

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