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Posted
4 minutes ago, elfenix said:

on to the next plan

MontyPythonAndTheHolyGrail-idvUF2p9-subtitled.jpg.60d6f1e561f4b941dba264b96d39b994.jpg

That really is a wonderful pull lolol thank you for putting a smile on my face. A bunch of goobers going on a boondoggle crusade is not a bad description of where this is all headed.

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Posted

I sure hope there’s more intel to come because if this is true… I don’t know how Trump can convince Israel to call off the dogs. Especially since we’ll likely never see Iran this weak again. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I sure hope there’s more intel to come because if this is true… I don’t know how Trump can convince Israel to call off the dogs. Especially since we’ll likely never see Iran this weak again. 

Israel calling off the dogs, or sending the dogs in, isn't the play you have to worry about.

The only next military step left is a ground invasion, and Israel simply can't pull that off in force (sure, they could send in some special ops troops maybe, but they won't be able to accomplish the goals in play here).  Only one possible actor can....

91LZasjGUAL._UF894,1000_QL80_.jpg

 

 

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Posted
22 minutes ago, bluto said:

So what’s the play, have the assessments rewritten and then publish?

Keep lying and call the media that corrects his lies liars? I mean what other play is there except the one that works for 80 million American voters? If it ain't broke why fix it?

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I don’t know how Trump can convince Israel to call off the dogs.

Easily. Threaten to stop the money and weapons spigot, and fucking mean it. Israel is incapable of sustaining a campaign against anyone without our money and weapons, period.

Why do you think they threw such a shit fit and Bibi got on the first plane to America to come scold Congress when Biden threatened to reduce military aid by an effectively marginal amount last year if Israel invaded Rafah?

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Israel calling off the dogs, or sending the dogs in, isn't the play you have to worry about.

The only next military step left is a ground invasion, and Israel simply can't pull that off in force (sure, they could send in some special ops troops maybe, but they won't be able to accomplish the goals in play here).  Only one possible actor can....

91LZasjGUAL._UF894,1000_QL80_.jpg

 

 

Believe it or not, he’s actually been effective at restraining Israel. Their original plan involved going after Iran’s ports and potentially starving them into submission. The ceasefire seems to be holding for now, so maybe the gloves won’t come off after all. 

Posted
26 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I think @956 Worldwide's post yesterday is right. Iran's ability to both project force and to defend itself have been seriously impacted, their proxies they thought would help have shown themselves unreliable partners, as have Russia and China. The status quo isn't the same.

However, it seems that all we've accomplished is a small delay in their nuclear program. In exchange for that delay, we've made them much likelier to pursue a bomb ASAP, have essentially destroyed international nonproliferation, gave Russia and China some new info on the B-2's capabilities and shown them that our bunker busters may not get the job done.  Oh, and we've made it much likelier that Iran will be ruled by even more hardliners going forward.

You can see how Israel sees all of this as a victory for them. But it's hard to see how it's a victory for us.  

I can pretty easily be talked into this being a strategic success, and the world being a better place with a weaker Iran. I'd argue our track record of Middle East intervention to create less terrorists is less than stellar, but still.

I just push back on the notion that, in the last two weeks leading up to the bombing, the dynamic has shifted and new intelligence has come to light, forcing us to act to achieve stability in the region. We did it because Bibi told us to. Period. He's been pushing the NUKES! button for 30 years. I'm not even blaming the administration for doing it. He's certainly not the first President that been at Israel's--who is perfectly capable of decimating any country in the region on their own--beckon call, and being seen as even remotely "anti" Israel is still political suicide (though, nothing is political suicide for Trump). But can we just call a spade a spade?

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Believe it or not, he’s actually been effective at restraining Israel. 

This is like an owner thinking they control their cat while they scoop shit out of a box 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Hank_Hill said:

This is like an owner thinking they control their cat while they scoop shit out of a box 

Israel wanted to take out the supreme leader and Trump said no as well. For all his faults, he does seem to really hate war. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Easily. Threaten to stop the money and weapons spigot, and fucking mean it.

No, he asked how TRUMP could convince Israel to call off the dogs.  The leader of a dominionist fundagelical death cult (sure, he doesn't actually believe any of that stuff, but needs all those believers to love him) is never, ever going to "restrain" Israel.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

No, he asked how TRUMP could convince Israel to call off the dogs.  The leader of a dominionist fundagelical death cult (sure, he doesn't actually believe any of that stuff, but needs all those believers to love him) is never, ever going to "restrain" Israel.

Yeah I mean obviously he's never going to do it but he could, easily.

Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

The fact of the matter is, any nation operating a nuclear reactor can pretty easily breed plutonium out of U238 and then chemically separate it, rather than dealing with the comparatively extremely difficult isotope separation. That's how we ended up with Little Man - it's far easier to breed plutonium from depleted uranium via neutron bombardment than to separate and enrich U235. 

Journey Of Course GIF

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Believe it or not, he’s actually been effective at restraining Israel. 

Believe it or not, all Trump cares about regarding the Middle East is getting a Nobel Prize. Literally every thing he's done the last couple of weeks has been all about that. 

First, Israel convinced Trump to bomb Iran. When that seemingly was a success, he floated the idea of Regime Change. Then he posted multiple victory laps claiming WORLD PEACE after announcing the ceasefire.  This morning he got all pissy after Israel's attacks made him look like a dumbass. It only took Iran behaving for 5 minutes for Trump to announce China can buy Iranian oil, and he is now against regime change. 

 

 

 

Edited by Hank Kingsley
Posted
23 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

No, he asked how TRUMP could convince Israel to call off the dogs.  The leader of a dominionist fundagelical death cult (sure, he doesn't actually believe any of that stuff, but needs all those believers to love him) is never, ever going to "restrain" Israel.

It's not even that complicated. 

Miriam Adelson Goes Searching for More Trump Donors - The ...

 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Believe it or not, all Trump cares about regarding the Middle East is getting a Nobel Prize. Literally every thing he's done the last couple of weeks has been all about that. 

First, Israel convinced Trump to bomb Iran. When that seemingly was a success, he floated the idea of Regime Change. Then he posted multiple victory laps claiming WORLD PEACE after announcing the ceasefire.  This morning he got all pissy after Israel's attacks made him look like a dumbass. It only took Iran behaving for 5 minutes for Trump to announce China can buy Iranian oil, and he is now against regime change. 

 

He is a child trying to manipulate everyone to get his favorite toy. Wake up. 

 

 

Look, Iran has absolutely no defenses at the moment and this thing could get really ugly for them. And fast. Trump not being a hawk is a good thing imo. 

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

It's not even that complicated. 

Miriam Adelson Goes Searching for More Trump Donors - The ...

 

Can he fire Nico by executive order? Would she sell the team if he agrees to ground groups in Iran? If so, make it happen already asshole.

Edited by 'stache
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Posted
5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Trump is whatever he needs to be for Trump. No more, no less. There is no ideology, outside of what is good for himself. 

 

Maybe. Either way, he seems to want peace and that’s a good thing. 

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Posted
53 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Israel calling off the dogs, or sending the dogs in, isn't the play you have to worry about.

The only next military step left is a ground invasion, and Israel simply can't pull that off in force (sure, they could send in some special ops troops maybe, but they won't be able to accomplish the goals in play here).  Only one possible actor can....

91LZasjGUAL._UF894,1000_QL80_.jpg

 

 

I love the idea of a 70-ton Abrams rolling out the ocean onto a beach, and the water is deep enough for what looks like one or more large Navy ships in the background.  And the 70s-era Huey firing rockets towards the beach instead of a Cobra or Apache or A-10.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I love the idea of a 70-ton Abrams rolling out the ocean onto a beach, and the water is deep enough for what looks like one or more large Navy ships in the background.  And the 70s-era Huey firing rockets towards the beach instead of a Cobra or Apache or A-10.

I mean....it's like you totally missed the eagle strapped with a gatling gun.  It's like I don't even know you, man.

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Trump is whatever he needs to be for Trump. No more, no less. There is no ideology, outside of what is good for himself. 

 

I do not and will not understand how anyone still believes Trump has principles, beliefs or values outside of "Trump"

He doesn't care about the American people, this country or anyone but himself, making more money and showing up Barack Obama for making fun of him. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, bluto said:

So what’s the play, have the assessments rewritten and then publish?

he doesn't care what they say, they're wrong!

Posted
1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

I think @956 Worldwide's post yesterday is right. Iran's ability to both project force and to defend itself have been seriously impacted, their proxies they thought would help have shown themselves unreliable partners, as have Russia and China. The status quo isn't the same.

However, it seems that all we've accomplished is a small delay in their nuclear program. In exchange for that delay, we've made them much likelier to pursue a bomb ASAP, have essentially destroyed international nonproliferation, gave Russia and China some new info on the B-2's capabilities and shown them that our bunker busters may not get the job done.  Oh, and we've made it much likelier that Iran will be ruled by even more hardliners going forward.

You can see how Israel sees all of this as a victory for them. But it's hard to see how it's a victory for us.  

I agree with most of this except that I do not think that this shattered non-proliferation.  If Iran deploys a bomb, that will be more of a threat to non-proliferation than limited strikes against clearly defined nuclear targets. 
 

The question of B2 effectiveness is a bit of an open question.  China and Russia have a large, dispersed, three pillar deterrent and we know about it. There isn’t a critical hardened site like Fordow except for their actual strategic commands and if we are targeting those, the B2s are not deploying conventional weapons but are operating in their nuclear strike role.  It would be fascinating to “know what Russia and China knew” as this was taking place and that’s something that will be pure speculation. For Russia and China the capability of the strategic bomber and support package itself is more interesting than the performance of the MOP. 

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Posted
9 minutes ago, burnt beanz said:

This story was broken by someone with a history of breaking high profiles stories that turn out to be disinfo. 

source.gif

Remind me of the last Trump-related story that you were Helobius-like wrong on and then never came back to the thread?

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Posted
24 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I mean....it's like you totally missed the eagle strapped with a gatling gun.  It's like I don't even know you, man.

Just as believable as anything I mentioned.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

Who to believe? A known drunkard who speaks in bold, absolutist language like this?

“Based on everything we have seen — and I’ve seen it ALL — our bombing campaign OBLITERATED Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons,” [Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth] said. “Our MASSIVE bombs hit EXACTLY THE RIGHT SPOT at each target and worked PERFECTLY.”

Or these guys who are more cautious and careful with their language?

Despite claims of the sites’ obliteration by Mr. Trump and Mr. Hegseth, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has been more careful in describing the attack’s effects.

“This operation was designed to severely degrade Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure,” General Caine said that at the Sunday news conference.

The final battle damage assessment for the military operation against Iran, General Caine said on Sunday, standing next to Mr. Hegseth, was still to come. He said the initial assessment showed that all three sites “sustained severe damage and destruction.”

General Caine added that it was “way too early” to assess how much of Iran’s nuclear program remained.

Gen. Joseph L. Votel, the former commander of Central Command, said in an interview, that he had “a lot of confidence in the weapons systems used.” But he added: “I’m not surprised that elements survived. That’s why you do battle damage assessments, because everything can go as planned but there are still other factors.”

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Posted
2 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Iran's ability to both project force and to defend itself have been seriously impacted, their proxies they thought would help have shown themselves unreliable partners, as have Russia and China.

That or they're keeping their powder dry after recognizing the strikes for the farce that they were. I say wait at least a month after a major event before drawing any conclusions about victory, success, strength, or weakness. We've gone from "complete and total obliteration" to "minor setback" in a matter of hours. Not everything deserves an Israel-style overreaction.

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Posted
28 minutes ago, burnt beanz said:

Politicians lie all the time. Journalists are not supposed to. 

Surely you've abandoned all of your sources who have repeatedly lied to you, then. Shirley.

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Posted
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I love the idea of a 70-ton Abrams rolling out the ocean onto a beach, and the water is deep enough for what looks like one or more large Navy ships in the background.  And the 70s-era Huey firing rockets towards the beach instead of a Cobra or Apache or A-10.

I, too, watched GI Joe as a child.

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Posted
57 minutes ago, burnt beanz said:

That wasn’t all known at the very beginning of that story. 
 

If they’re all trustworthy journalists with impeccable sources then it was a mistake to have Natasha break it. It casts doubt on it. 
 

Politicians lie all the time. Journalists are not supposed to. 

You are right there. Sooo close. Keep following the logic and see where you end up.

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Posted
9 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

I haven't seen it mentioned, but Northrop Grumman says the B-2 has a capacity of >40,000lbs. Apparently six of them dropped 12 30,000lb bombs. I guess the >40,000lbs is accurate, but now our adversaries are probably wondering about the true capabilities of all our other assets. 

It was mentioned the morning after the strike, and the suggestion is that the published bomb load might be a space available problem and not an actual payload issue problem. 
 

I just hope none of the B2 pilots binged on Taco Bell before the mission brief or Operation Mid Flight Hammer may have gone down.  

Posted
5 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

I think even the laymen can look at the picture of the facilities bombed by the US and understand that none of them are going to be up and humming in 30-60 days even if it’s just a matter of digging out the tunnels leading to allegedly unharmed delicate nuclear facilities. 
 

If that assessment is true then Iran already has the fuel on hand, is working to create the nuclear device itself and the suggestion that they are/were very close to having a working weapon is valid.
 

Trump claims total destruction. Unnamed sources alleged to be familiar with the damage assessment say 30 days to the status quo. It would be wise to split the difference and suggest that total destruction did not occur, but that their program has been knocked on it’s ass for some time to come.  
 

Again, activity around those sites in the comes days and weeks will be very revealing about the destruction involved, and first blush leaked battle assessments for the purpose of grabbing headlines won’t be needed. 

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Posted
35 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

I think even the laymen can look at the picture of the facilities bombed by the US and understand that none of them are going to be up and humming in 30-60 days even if it’s just a matter of digging out the tunnels leading to allegedly unharmed delicate nuclear facilities. 
 

If that assessment is true then Iran already has the fuel on hand, is working to create the nuclear device itself and the suggestion that they are/were very close to having a working weapon is valid.
 

Trump claims total destruction. Unnamed sources alleged to be familiar with the damage assessment say 30 days to the status quo. It would be wise to split the difference and suggest that total destruction did not occur, but that their program has been knocked on it’s ass for some time to come.  
 

Again, activity around those sites in the comes days and weeks will be very revealing about the destruction involved, and first blush leaked battle assessments for the purpose of grabbing headlines won’t be needed. 

Dirt is still a very good protector. And when the facilities are buried under hundreds of feet of dirt and rock, even the very best bunker buster is going to have difficulty. There is a reason we used a dozen of these things on the facility Top Gun Maverick style (aiming for the same hole). I recall the initial Israeli assessment was similar to the recent reporting: entrances to the facilities were buried, but the critical material was likely not destroyed. Digging can happen quickly. With modern equipment, it doesn't necessarily take that long to move a lot of dirt. That said, I think the delay caused by this strike is on the order of months. Significant, but not a real long-term impediment.  

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Dirt is still a very good protector. And when the facilities are buried under hundreds of feet of dirt and rock, even the very best bunker buster is going to have difficulty. There is a reason we used a dozen of these things on the facility Top Gun Maverick style (aiming for the same hole). I recall the initial Israeli assessment was similar to the recent reporting: entrances to the facilities were buried, but the critical material was likely not destroyed. Digging can happen quickly. With modern equipment, it doesn't necessarily take that long to move a lot of dirt. That said, I think the delay caused by this strike is on the order of months. Significant, but not a real long-term impediment.  

That suggests that it’s just dirt that needs to be moved. They’re probably going to have to make an in depth assessment of the structural integrity of the buildings underneath even it all looks 5 foot good on the first pass. And it also suggests that none of the equipment inside suffered damage from blast/pressure waves. I recall that the centrifuges, for example, are supposed to be very delicate. Again, if it’s just dirt work then it will be evident based on activity once the tunnels are cleared.  

Attacking the ventilation shafts would seem to make a lot of sense. I guess it gives you an extra few feet of penetration, but I’m sure the first thing any bunker designer worth his salt would do would be to put multiple kinks in the routing of those air shafts to deter just such an attack. 

Edited by Bobby_Batronic
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Posted
25 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Dirt is still a very good protector. And when the facilities are buried under hundreds of feet of dirt and rock, even the very best bunker buster is going to have difficulty. There is a reason we used a dozen of these things on the facility Top Gun Maverick style (aiming for the same hole). I recall the initial Israeli assessment was similar to the recent reporting: entrances to the facilities were buried, but the critical material was likely not destroyed. Digging can happen quickly. With modern equipment, it doesn't necessarily take that long to move a lot of dirt. That said, I think the delay caused by this strike is on the order of months. Significant, but not a real long-term impediment.  

Will be a while before the full picture emerges and also we will likely need them to first dig out and then do collection to confirm the condition of centrifuges and where/whether some of them were moved. 
 

A single DIA assessment that leaked this early deserves massive grains of salt. Its a real fucking terrible problem that the highest levels of the admin have announced what they want to hear from future analyses.  That will poison the process. 

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

That suggests that it’s just dirt that needs to be moved. They’re probably going to have to make an in depth assessment of the structural integrity of the buildings underneath even it all looks 5 foot good on the first pass. And it also suggests that none of the equipment inside suffered damage from blast/pressure waves. I recall that the centrifuges, for example, are supposed to be very delicate. Again, if it’s just dirt work then it will be evident based on activity once the tunnels are cleared.  

Attacking the ventilation shafts would seem to make a lot of sense. I guess it gives you an extra few feet of penetration, but I’m sure the first thing any bunker designer worth his salt would do would be to put multiple kinks in the routing of those air shafts to deter just such an attack. 

I'm not sure whether you read the NYTimes article link that was posted above bor what is being reported in other outlets, including cable news, so I'm posting a relevant passage from it where there'sa little more detail:

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

American warplanes did hit the same spots at least twice on Saturday. B-2s dropped 12 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs — often referred to as “bunker busters” — on Fordo, and six aboveground entry craters are now visible, according to Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute.

But many military bomb experts believed that more than one day of strikes would be needed to complete the job.

I definitely recall reading last week that experts believed it would take several waves of bombings to get the job done. Hopefully, those assessments were wrong, but this maybe wasn't sufficient. Plus, if a lot of the stuff was moved, then well I don't know.

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

That suggests that it’s just dirt that needs to be moved. They’re probably going to have to make an in depth assessment of the structural integrity of the buildings underneath even it all looks 5 foot good on the first pass. And it also suggests that none of the equipment inside suffered damage from blast/pressure waves. I recall that the centrifuges, for example, are supposed to be very delicate. Again, if it’s just dirt work then it will be evident based on activity once the tunnels are cleared.  

Attacking the ventilation shafts would seem to make a lot of sense. I guess it gives you an extra few feet of penetration, but I’m sure the first thing any bunker designer worth his salt would do would be to put multiple kinks in the routing of those air shafts to deter just such an attack. 

Oh, I don't think we were necessarily aiming for a vent shaft or anything like that. But we were definitely aiming to have each pair of bombs follow the other to maximize the overall penetration. 

Posted

What if they bombed them with less than reported MOPs and then sprinkled in more of the smaller ordinance. Now they are awaiting them to dig some shit up before unleashing more MOPs?  Nono I am regarded. They absolutely telegraphed their move and then failed. Fuck me, we used to be great. Before the adults were in charge.

/giving waaayyy too much credit to their mental capacity

 

Posted
3 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

What if they bombed them with less than reported MOPs and then sprinkled in more of the smaller ordinance. Now they are awaiting them to dig some shit up before unleashing more MOPs?  Nono I am regarded. They absolutely telegraphed their move and then failed. Fuck me, we used to be great. Before the adults were in charge.

/giving waaayyy too much credit to their mental capacity

 

I don't think it is fair to call it a failure even if it didn't result in complete destruction of the facility. I also don't know what the purpose of randomly dropping smaller bombs are dirt would be. By all accounts, this was an extraordinary tactical success and a well coordinated strike. I doubt any of the military planners seriously expected there to be a high chance of complete destruction of the facility. 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I'm not sure whether you read the NYTimes article link that was posted above bor what is being reported in other outlets, including cable news, so I'm posting a relevant passage from it where there'sa little more detail:

Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots.

American warplanes did hit the same spots at least twice on Saturday. B-2s dropped 12 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs — often referred to as “bunker busters” — on Fordo, and six aboveground entry craters are now visible, according to Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute.

But many military bomb experts believed that more than one day of strikes would be needed to complete the job.

I definitely recall reading last week that experts believed it would take several waves of bombings to get the job done. Hopefully, those assessments were wrong, but this maybe wasn't sufficient. Plus, if a lot of the stuff was moved, then well I don't know.

I just take it as a fact that as assuredly as Trump will claim total victory that a news outlet will find someone to say we barley scratched their anchor. 
 

The MOP is designed to penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete. It doesn’t explode until it comes to a stop. No mean feat of engineering imoho. So 6 in a row isn’t nothing. I am curious as to how much those holes filling back in after the blast mitigated the penetration of the next bomb. 

13 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Oh, I don't think we were necessarily aiming for a vent shaft or anything like that. But we were definitely aiming to have each pair of bombs follow the other to maximize the overall penetration. 

They were definitely aiming for ventilation shafts. And hit them repeatedly. 

Edited by Bobby_Batronic
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

The MOP is designed to penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete. It doesn’t explode until it comes to a stop. No mean feat of engineering imoho. So 6 in a row isn’t nothing. I am curious as to how much those holes filling back in after the blast mitigated the penetration of the next bomb. 

12 in a row. 6 holes, 2 MOPS each plus one or two more at Natanz. Again, very impressive execution.  But, to be clear,  the public penetration rating for them is 200 feet of earth or 60 feet of reinforced concrete. Being able to penetrate 200 feet of reinforced concrete would be absolutely bonkers. And the MOP definitely can't do that. 

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