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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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14 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Interest Rates are one of the Fed's tools in managing the two main economic indicators they track, Inflation and Unemployment. 

My observation may be wrong but it seems they weigh Inflation as the more important of the two and would tolerate slightly elevated unemployment over high inflation. Raising rates was a move to make borrowing more expensive to get people to spend cash instead of borrowing, this would reduce demand and lower demand would help bring prices down.

The balance is to slow spending enough to get inflation in check but not enough to spur mass layoffs from demand falling too much. Driving the economy is more like a boat than a car, you can't stop or turn on a dime, you have to use momentum and velocity changes to make gradual moves to stay in the right ranges.  Timing is critical.

Both indicators have hit a point where they have to act now or the opportunity to avoid recession will pass.  Inflation is near the target 2% and job growth has slowed to where it could get dangerous.

From a pessimist POV the 50 point cut could be a signal that they waited too long, they see recession coming and they are trying to overcorrect.

I'm not an economist, but I think they did wait too long to start cutting.

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1 minute ago, 4th&Five said:

 

Well I'm sure that this will be handled with logic and restraint from those on the right.

2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

The Teamsters majority wanting to vote for Trump is so typical. These people can’t even figure out that Trump in office is bad news for them. All the information is out there, but they are just mesmerized by the disinformation and bullshit. 

They like the hatred of those not lilke them.  They're too dumb to realize Trump would outlaw unions if he could, though.

30 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

If it’s good for America then MAGA is against it when Trump isn’t president. 

As I said…

 

16 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Interest Rates are one of the Fed's tools in managing the two main economic indicators they track, Inflation and Unemployment. 

My observation may be wrong but it seems they weigh Inflation as the more important of the two and would tolerate slightly elevated unemployment over high inflation. Raising rates was a move to make borrowing more expensive to get people to spend cash instead of borrowing, this would reduce demand and lower demand would help bring prices down.

The balance is to slow spending enough to get inflation in check but not enough to spur mass layoffs from demand falling too much. Driving the economy is more like a boat than a car, you can't stop or turn on a dime, you have to use momentum and velocity changes to make gradual moves to stay in the right ranges.  Timing is critical.

Both indicators have hit a point where they have to act now or the opportunity to avoid recession will pass.  Inflation is near the target 2% and job growth has slowed to where it could get dangerous.

From a pessimist POV the 50 point cut could be a signal that they waited too long, they see recession coming and they are trying to overcorrect.

This is a solid description of the situation. The Republicans complaints about the timing of them is the same disinformation bullshit we always hear today out of the party.  

43 minutes ago, G650 said:

The funnier part is who the hell does he think is upset by rate cuts.

Dotard. 

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Teamsters decline to endorse -

what fucking gutless pussies. 

There's an interesting point here with the Teamsters--probably more than any of the other major unions, the Teamsters are impacted by federal regulations that are not directly linked to the NLRA or the RLA.  The Teamsters' membership is disproportionately in the trucking, rail, and airline industries--three industries that are (1) heavily regulated by the federal government and (2) that have seen (and are likely to continue seeing) declines in employee counts from automation.

The teamsters represent a bunch of truckers.  But long-haul truckers are going to find themselves out of work if their employers can switch to autonomous vehicles.  But to do that, they're going to need approval from FHWA.

The teamsters represent a bunch of railway signal workers.  But Norfolk Southern and others are lobbying the FRA to let a lot of that work be automated.

I mean, if the Teamsters think they can strike a deal with Trump on these issues and that Trump will keep his word, maybe that makes sense.

But damn--a Harris administration could make corporate friends and at the same time injure the one union that didn't support her by just making a few tweaks to some regulations that nobody would ever notice.  And is that something you'd want to risk when she's up five points in the polls?

Fox News (national)

Harris 50, Trump 48 (+2)

Last poll was Trump +1

24 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

They like the hatred of those not lilke them.  They're too dumb to realize Trump would outlaw unions if he could, though.

UPS drivers are also skewed towards being rural people. Kinda like senators; Mineral Wells gets 3-4 drivers every day because of the miles involved in servicing the territory. Downtown Fort Worth only has 3-4 drivers despite a much higher population (maybe less now that Sasha Bass has run everyone off).

Drivers also tend to live on their routes and in small towns like Sulphur Springs or Palestine, driving for UPS is one of the only jobs left that an uneducated small town dipshit can show up and make 100,000 a year while going home and seeing his family every night. We know how those guys vote

1 minute ago, Pancho said:


 

 

Love that they're calling it "Trump's Project 2025" keep it up

58 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Interest Rates are one of the Fed's tools in managing the two main economic indicators they track, Inflation and Unemployment. 

My observation may be wrong but it seems they weigh Inflation as the more important of the two and would tolerate slightly elevated unemployment over high inflation. Raising rates was a move to make borrowing more expensive to get people to spend cash instead of borrowing, this would reduce demand and lower demand would help bring prices down.

The balance is to slow spending enough to get inflation in check but not enough to spur mass layoffs from demand falling too much. Driving the economy is more like a boat than a car, you can't stop or turn on a dime, you have to use momentum and velocity changes to make gradual moves to stay in the right ranges.  Timing is critical.

Both indicators have hit a point where they have to act now or the opportunity to avoid recession will pass.  Inflation is near the target 2% and job growth has slowed to where it could get dangerous.

From a pessimist POV the 50 point cut could be a signal that they waited too long, they see recession coming and they are trying to overcorrect.

I think I they where actually happy with where inflation was and the trend to keep rates high. They were worried about softening labor markets and this is essentially a gift to megacorps to not do layoffs and keep on track. 

43 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

I'm not an economist, but I think they did wait too long to start cutting.

I think I they were late to first cut, but right on track to where the rate should be above the natural rate. 

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4 hours ago, otisdog said:

 

On another note, our new pup was exceptional on his first pheasant hunting trip. Waaaay beyond my expectations. He was worth the drive to Wisconsin.

 

Congratulations on not having to shoot him

4 hours ago, otisdog said:

Well, kinda....

As my wife and I drove home yesterday from the palouse back to our island on the coast, she asked me why the wheat farmers showed such strong support for trump. After trying to come up with contrasting examples to non-trumpers,  I had to settle  for 'lack of education'.

On another note, our new pup was exceptional on his first pheasant hunting trip. Waaaay beyond my expectations. He was worth the drive to Wisconsin.

 

pictures of pup not loading

2 hours ago, kevwun said:

At the debate I'm pretty sure Trump called Kamala a communist, socialist, marxist in the same sentence.

He didn’t work fascist in there too?

54 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

As I said…

 

They are making moves to lower interest  rates and correct inflation!

Booo!

They wanted to pass a border bill!

Booo!

They want to protect invitro fertilization!

Booo!

I have sex through the pee pee hole in my pajamas.

Boooo! Huh? Boo!

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

Cracking Up Lol GIF by HULU

What is Dickie Bennett doing in NYC?

27 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

UPS drivers are also skewed towards being rural people. Kinda like senators; Mineral Wells gets 3-4 drivers every day because of the miles involved in servicing the territory. Downtown Fort Worth only has 3-4 drivers despite a much higher population (maybe less now that Sasha Bass has run everyone off).

Drivers also tend to live on their routes and in small towns like Sulphur Springs or Palestine, driving for UPS is one of the only jobs left that an uneducated small town dipshit can show up and make 100,000 a year while going home and seeing his family every night. We know how those guys vote

Wait UPS drivers make 100k, have benefits, fresh air and exercise and sex up lonely wimenz?  My UT career counselor has some explaining to do.

To no surprise, Trump says the teamsters endorsed him. Because not endorsing Harris is automatically an endorsement for him 

22 minutes ago, immamac said:

I think I they were late to first cut, but right on track to where the rate should be above the natural rate. 

Yeah, doing 50 bps and signaling another cut is coming before EOY gets us where we should be.

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

To no surprise, Trump says the teamsters endorsed him. Because not endorsing Harris is automatically an endorsement for him 

Seeing a lot of teamsters union chapters endorsing Harris-Walz on Twitter regardless of what Sean o’brian has said nationally. Guy is just salty he didn’t get to speak at the DNC.

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

The Teamsters majority wanting to vote for Trump is so typical. These people can’t even figure out that Trump in office is bad news for them. All the information is out there, but they are just mesmerized by the disinformation and bullshit. 

I work among a plethora of Teamsters. They are not the brightest bunch of folks. 

5 minutes ago, mooseoutfront said:

I work among a plethora of Teamsters. They are not the brightest bunch of folks. 

They are people of the land

Hey, I just remembered that during the debate, Dotard said that Tim Walz wants to kill babies. Not via abortion mind you. He said he wants to kill babies after they are born. I'm sure there has been push back on that since then, but I haven't seen it. That may be the worst lie ever uttered about another person in a televised debate. 

Also, lulz, the dems really need to tone down their rhetoric. 

17 minutes ago, Covri said:

Seeing a lot of teamsters union chapters endorsing Harris-Walz on Twitter regardless of what Sean o’brian has said nationally. Guy is just salty he didn’t get to speak at the DNC.

There was zero chance he was going to speak at the DNC after speaking at the RNC.

33 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Yeah, doing 50 bps and signaling another cut is coming before EOY gets us where we should be.

You underwriting that in models?

3 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

You underwriting that in models?

I don't underwrite shit, just saying that is where I think we should be since they should have started cuts earlier.  Inflation has been low for months now.

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51 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Wait UPS drivers make 100k, have benefits, fresh air and exercise and sex up lonely wimenz?  My UT career counselor has some explaining to do.

When I was driving for UPS me and my buddies would meet for pizza and beer almost every night after our runs. In two months I lost 15 pounds drinking beer and eating pizza because they kicked our ass so much. I had a lot of strip malls on my route and was expected to do 19.2 stops per hour.   I don’t know what they’re making now but they sure as shit earn it.

2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

The Teamsters majority wanting to vote for Trump is so typical. These people can’t even figure out that Trump in office is bad news for them. All the information is out there, but they are just mesmerized by the disinformation and bullshit. 

SIAP it wasn't a majority of the union it was the majority who responded to some poll, per the head of the Union. He seems to be the only one who knows the results of the poll and didn't divulge how many people responded.

16 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

I like that guy!  They live under the bus.  They don't want to drive.

11 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

When I was driving for UPS me and my buddies would meet for pizza and beer almost every night after our runs. In two months I lost 15 pounds drinking beer and eating pizza because they kicked our ass so much. I had a lot of strip malls on my route and was expected to do 19.2 stops per hour.   I don’t know what they’re making now but they sure as shit earn it.

The guy that serves our office does 150-200 stops a day and I’ve never seen him in a bad mood. Dude just loves driving for UPS. His dad was a lifer too. Anytime he picks up on a hot ass day and he’s still laughing I realize how cushy my day is. 

2 minutes ago, Chopper said:

SIAP it wasn't a majority of the union it was the majority who responded to some poll, per the head of the Union. He seems to be the only one who knows the results of the poll and didn't divulge how many people responded.

I have no doubt that many, if not a majority, are reactionary. But I don't think the margin is as large as O'Brien suggests.

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JFC

 

Just now, TexEx15 said:

JFC

 

He made the r--- threat while on drugs, or is he threatening to take drugs and then r--- them?

1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

JFC

 

He should have left the U.S. when Biden won like he said he would. 

18 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

When I was driving for UPS me and my buddies would meet for pizza and beer almost every night after our runs. In two months I lost 15 pounds drinking beer and eating pizza because they kicked our ass so much. I had a lot of strip malls on my route and was expected to do 19.2 stops per hour.   I don’t know what they’re making now but they sure as shit earn it.

Counterpoint:  we have a regular UPS driver who comes in, makes small talk with the secretaries up front, then proceeds to spend about 10 minutes taking a shit in our public bathroom, then will fetch himself a bottle of water from our breakroom.  

9 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

JFC

 

 

He had 1 hit song years ago and hasn’t been relevant since. He’s just trying because he realizes he has to get a real job or grift.

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Lil Pumps off-colored social media comments about Taylor Swift is further proof that the Harris campaign must tone down the rhetoric 

-NY TIMES

Edited by Ted Lange

3 hours ago, locodos said:

Fuck those old establishment clowns.

I wore my Rolling Stones T-shirt to the Church of Christ to vote the first time for this reason. 

Now I want to see millions of angry women go to the voting booth. 

Edited by cactusflinthead

In other news - Marist poll of Pennsylvania dropping tonight.

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LOL

 

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

LOL

 

now we wait and see if he is true to his words and not sell 

Edited by Haphap

2 minutes ago, Haphap said:

now we wait and see if he is true to his words and not sell 

HenryHillLaughing.gif

 

6 minutes ago, Haphap said:

now we wait and see if he is true to his words and not sell 

image.gif.526b5ddc426384c55f99e4c075d1cc72.gif

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