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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I'm not having this argument about 2 polls that will probably be near the bottom of the averages in a week after we get 5 more of them of varying margins between now and next week. 

There's also the Slotkin story from last week.

Posted
2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I think the campaign event in Wisconsin making a big deal of the Cheney endorsement was a waste of time. She could have accepted the endorsement with a short video. Wasting a whole campaign day is bad strategy.

So you think she should have spent her time that one day differently. Great. Noted. Let's move on.

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Posted
Just now, Red Five said:

So you think she should have spent her time that one day differently. Great. Noted. Let's move on.

We'll see if the podcasts and interviews have any impact. I wish she had more disciplined messaging about the policy proposals, especially the Medicare stuff. It plays.

Posted
14 minutes ago, kevwun said:

It should be if this country was filled with smart people, but it's not.  She can't magically conjure voters up.

It can only be half filled with smart people.

Posted
2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

By what metric. Please show the supporting data that this should be a blowout. Sadly, as we often have to point out to republicans, their fucking feelings aren't Data, and neither are yours. 

There is no data to support a blowout election. The country is split: 33% Democratic, 31% Leaners, and 32% GQP.

image.png.9e647fb55e0bf21803fde9856d381b5e.png

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Posted
32 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Well like it or not, this race is much closer than it should be. So, yeah, I'm going to criticize her strategy. This kind of performance is unacceptable.

She started out way behind, because Biden.  She may or may not win, but that may have nothing to do with her "strategy" or some sort of strategic shortcomings.

Posted
Just now, jimmyjazz said:

She started out way behind, because Biden.  She may or may not win, but that may have nothing to do with her "strategy" or some sort of strategic shortcomings.

At the time he dropped out, polls showed Generic D beating Trump by 3, and Shapiro beating Trump by about 11 in PA. I'd like to see her exceeding those numbers.

Posted
1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

At the time he dropped out, polls showed Generic D beating Trump by 3, and Shapiro beating Trump by about 11 in PA. I'd like to see her exceeding those numbers.

Link please.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, kevwun said:

This is like when your wife wakes up mad at you for something you did in her dream.

Last night, I got us into a car crash and tried to cover her up with dirt when someone came to investigate.

Fortunately, I was with the toddler while she was with the newborn, so she had cooled off by the time I heard of my misdeeds an hour after she woke up. Close call.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

At the time he dropped out, polls showed Generic D beating Trump by 3, and Shapiro beating Trump by about 11 in PA. I'd like to see her exceeding those numbers.

On the flip side, if she hadn't caved to Progressive wing and instead picked Shapiro I think she'd be in a stronger position overall.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Conqueeftador said:

On the flip side, if she hadn't caved to Progressive wing and instead picked Shapiro I think she'd be in a stronger position overall.

In PA you're probably right. In Wisconsin/Michigan though Walz had higher favorables. There were other liabilities with Shapiro including his support for school vouchers and the scandal with that suicide investigation

Posted
3 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

A day spent in Wisconsin, a swing state. People bitch about Hillary’s strategy, but then here’s Kamala doing the exact opposite and it’s still wrong. 

No, she should do a rally in Kansas soon and then a big closing weekend at Lucas Oil stadium! 

(The equivalent of Trump's rallies in Coachella and MSG)

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Posted
2 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

A day spent in Wisconsin, a swing state. People bitch about Hillary’s strategy, but then here’s Kamala doing the exact opposite and it’s still wrong. 

The problem I see is her priorities. She was in a 96% white county that Trump won in 2020 by 15k votes.

Posted
Just now, SubliminalHorn said:

Ok? You don’t see the strategy in slicing off some of that %? 

I do see it, and I think it's as stupid as a Greg Davis slow-developing sideways pass.

Much better to drive turnout in Detroit and Milwaukee.

Posted
1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

I do see it, and I think it's as stupid as a Greg Davis slow-developing sideways pass.

Much better to drive turnout in Detroit and Milwaukee.

They might also be doing that.

Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Red Five said:

They might also be doing that.

I hope so. My point about priorities is that Kamala can only be in one place at one time, so for the campaign to say "send her to Ripon WI" says a lot about the mentality it has adopted. Give the damn ball to Bijan and keep doing it until they make you stop. That's what I think.

Edited by chainsaw
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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Conqueeftador said:

On the flip side, if she hadn't caved to Progressive wing and instead picked Shapiro I think she'd be in a stronger position overall.

So should she be energizing the base or appealing to the center?

I guess the answer to both is yes and no

Edited by Valmy77
Posted
44 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

FTFY.

I think the campaign event in Wisconsin making a big deal of the Cheney endorsement was a waste of time. She could have accepted the endorsement with a short video. Wasting a whole campaign day is bad strategy.

Agreed.

I cringed when she gave a shout-out to Dick at that rally. Nobody likes Dick Cheney and all Democrats HATE him. Unforced error.

Posted
1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

I just want to see the data that supports the strategy of pretending Dick Cheney wasn't a complete piece of shit.

I want to see where she has promised Liz Cheney or Dick Cheney fuck all. She’s basically out there saying “these people don’t agree with me on anything and are voting for me. What does that tell you?”  I don’t see a lick of quid pro who.  Quit hand wringing

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Posted
6 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

Quit hand wringing

Qpac is a good pollster, and those are bad numbers. I'd rather see Kamala win than see the Longhorns win CFP, so yeah I'm going to be concerned. Conservatives are not to be trusted and usually come home in November. I am not comfortable with a strategy that places any amount of trust in them as a voting bloc.

Posted
3 hours ago, heso said:

Adding some numbers to that. If 36% of the 158,672 people that voted for Haley in the PA primary vote for Harris, that’s 57,121 votes. Biden’s margin of victory in 2020 was 80,555. 

 it would be over 100,000 votes in Michigan. 90,000 votes in NC. 

Problem with Michigan is the Arab American diaspora is sitting this one out. I have a coworker who's family lives in Michigan, and they HATE the Biden Administration. Of course they also HATE Trump. So that's why there's the uncommitted movement in Michigan.

In 2020, the more of the Muslims in Michigan voted for Biden instead of Trump. If they sit out this one, it could hurt Harris more than Trump.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Superhero said:

In 2020, the more of the Muslims in Michigan voted for Biden instead of Trump. If they sit out this one, it could hurt Harris more than Trump.

Leopards.

Eating.

People's.

Faces.

 

The dumbest fucking strategy.  "I'll make everyone, INCLUDING ME AND MINE, ingest deadly poison!  That'll show em!"

The outcome:

jonestowntdih.jpg

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Leopards.

Eating.

People's.

Faces.

 

The dumbest fucking strategy.  "I'll make everyone, INCLUDING ME AND MINE, ingest deadly poison!  That'll show em!"

The outcome:

jonestowntdih.jpg

 

 

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Problem with Michigan is the Arab American diaspora is sitting this one out. I have a coworker who's family lives in Michigan, and they HATE the Biden Administration. Of course they also HATE Trump. So that's why there's the uncommitted movement in Michigan.

In 2020, the more of the Muslims in Michigan voted for Biden instead of Trump. If they sit out this one, it could hurt Harris more than Trump.

It’s definitely going to be a factor. Registered Muslim voters in 2020 was 206,050. Turnout in 2020 was 145,620 (71%). Up from 108,419 in 2016 where the MOV for Trump was 10,704. 

I can’t wrap my head around a protest non-vote that could give the win to a party that despises you.

Writing in uncommitted in the primary, ok, send your message. Sitting out the general election to help Trump sends no message and moves the country away from policies that would be beneficial to the things that are important to you. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, heso said:

I can’t wrap my head around a protest non-vote that could give the win to a party that despises you.

Because Trumpkins aren't the only people for whom hatred and rage are more important than voting for your interests, and actually support voting AGAINST your interests.

It's stupid and counter-productive in the extreme, so, yeah....that's kinda what we do 'round here these days.  Fucking idiots.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Because Trumpkins aren't the only people for whom hatred and rage are more important than voting for your interests, and actually support voting AGAINST your interests.

It's stupid and counter-productive in the extreme, so, yeah....that's kinda what we do 'round here these days.  Fucking idiots.

They are American citizens, who have been afforded the opportunities to be successful, raise families, and not be under constant threat every single day of their lives.

And they want to throw it all away as a temper tantrum.  They "WHAT ABOUT???" everything - American women will be safer under a Harris presidency.  WHAT ABOUT THE WOMEN IN GAZA AND LEBANON?  Kamala Harris and a Dem congress will codify Roe v Wade and ensure women have the right to choose their own reproductive healthcare outcomes.  WHAT ABOUT THE WOMEN AND BABIES IN GAZA BEING MURDERED BY KAMALA HARRIS?????

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Posted

 Centrists punching left is not helpful to the cause. 

Harris has the centrists and never-trumpers locked up. While there is no reason to alienate the Dick Cheney for Kamala voters, there is also no reason to treat Dick Cheney as an angel.  I welcome his support.  I laud his daughter for standing up to Trump.  But no intelligent Republican can possibly defend a vote for Trump in 2024, after the Supreme Court removed any guardrails on his power as President  

As this election winds down, getting out the vote is crucial. The Stalinists weren’t voting for Kamala anyway, but the progressives (who are neither commie nor Stalinist) need to turn out. 

I urge centrists to punch right and draw attention to the lack of guardrails if Trump is elected—rather than minimizing the concerns of progressives. 
 

IMG_1394.thumb.jpeg.1b8bd2294cccbf9c02791223bb872408.jpeg

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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

They are American citizens, who have been afforded the opportunities to be successful, raise families, and not be under constant threat every single day of their lives.

And they want to throw it all away as a temper tantrum.  They "WHAT ABOUT???" everything - American women will be safer under a Harris presidency.  WHAT ABOUT THE WOMEN IN GAZA AND LEBANON?  Kamala Harris and a Dem congress will codify Roe v Wade and ensure women have the right to choose their own reproductive healthcare outcomes.  WHAT ABOUT THE WOMEN AND BABIES IN GAZA BEING MURDERED BY KAMALA HARRIS?????

It's dumber, and more malevolent than that.  It's "people are being harmed in Gaza, so we're going to act in a way to harm people here in the US.  That'll show you."

It's political terrorism, it's not much more complicated than that.

Way to make me sympathetic to your cause (sarcasm).  I have to give you everything you want, or you'll hurt me and my family?  Fuck YOU.

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Posted
1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

We'll see if the podcasts and interviews have any impact. I wish she had more disciplined messaging about the policy proposals, especially the Medicare stuff. It plays.

I mean, the Medicare at home shit is great. She's been playing the hell out of it. How much more can she play out of it?

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

At the time he dropped out, polls showed Generic D beating Trump by 3, and Shapiro beating Trump by about 11 in PA. I'd like to see her exceeding those numbers.

You expected her to exceed the numbers of a popular governor IN his state? That seems reasonable to you?

Posted
1 minute ago, washparkhorn said:

 Centrists punching left is not helpful to the cause. 

Harris has the centrists and never-trumpers locked up. While there is no reason to alienate the Dick Cheney for Kamala voters, there is also no reason to treat Dick Cheney as an angel.  I welcome his support.  I laud his daughter for standing up to Trump.  But no intelligent Republican can possibly defend a vote for Trump in 2024, after the Supreme Court removed any guardrails on his power as President  

As this election winds down, getting out the vote is crucial. The Stalinists weren’t voting for Kamala anyway, but the progressives (who are neither commie nor Stalinist) need to turn out. 

I urge centrists to punch right and draw attention to the lack of guardrails if Trump is elected—rather than minimizing the concerns of progressives. 

Peeling away an R to vote for Harris is the same electoral value as getting out two D voters to vote for her who otherwise wouldn't have. 

That's how it works. Let's say there are 22 possible voters, 20 who will vote and are split 10 R and 10 D and 2 unmotivated D voters. Changing one of those from R to D is the same value as getting both unmotivated Ds to the polls. One makes it 11-9 D, one makes it 12-10.

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Posted
1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

At the time he dropped out, polls showed Generic D beating Trump by 3, and Shapiro beating Trump by about 11 in PA. I'd like to see her exceeding those numbers.

I only have one person blocked on this website, but I gotta be honest - this post, in the context of your complaints, is really making me consider doubling that total.

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Posted

Green Party supporters have always been idiots, and Jill Stein is trying to court them but for what it's worth she's had very little success in that.

This article is from today (they're using European Day Month Year notation)

https://thearabweekly.com/michigan-uncommitted-come-out-against-trump-boosting-harris-fortunes-among-arab-americans

Quote

The Uncommitted shift to openly opposing Trump, who is perceived as close to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, will come as some relief to Harris, the vice president.

However, Abandon Harris, another group of anti-war voters, has endorsed fringe Green Party candidate Jill Stein, potentially turning her into a spoiler that would help elect Trump in swing states decided by just a few thousand votes.

I looked for evidence of that group's size, and it's pretty much just that guy from the video.



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