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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/donald-trump-kamala-harris-attack-ads-truth-test-keller/

Quote

The opinions expressed below are Jon Keller's, not those of WBZ, CBS News or Paramount Global.

BOSTON - In the race for president, the attack ads are coming fast and furious.

"It's hard to believe, but it's true," says the voice-over in a Trump for President ad that's airing nationwide. "Even the liberal media was shocked - Kamala supports taxpayer-funded sex changes for prisoners and illegal aliens."
Trump ad on Harris, transgender inmates  

That would be Vice President Kamala Harris they're referencing. And yes, it's hard to believe because it's very misleading.

The Trump ad uses a 2020 interview clip, in which Harris says she supports gender-affirming surgery for transgender prisoners who can demonstrate that their mental health depends on it. "Every transgender inmate in the prison system would have access," she said.

But they edit out the rest of her statement: "Every transgender inmate in the prison system would have access to the medical care that they desired and need."

That's what the Eighth Amendment to the Constitution requires, multiple courts have ruled. And there are just a few known cases of prisoners and none of "illegal aliens" receiving gender-affirming surgery.
Harris ad on Trump, Putin ties

Meanwhile, Harris is out with an attack ad of her own.

"Trump will always choose Putin over the American people, and now we have evidence," says the narrator over citations of reporter Bob Woodward's new book, "War."

"He secretly sent Putin COVID tests while withholding them from sick and dying Americans." Then the ad cuts to footage of then-President Trump saying, "so I said to my people, slow the testing down, please!"

Woodward also claims in his book that Trump has spoken with Putin multiple times since leaving the White House. But that's based on a single unnamed source and is - along with the COVID test claim - vehemently denied by the Trump campaign. For now, at least, it's Woodward's word against Trump's.

The Trump campaign is spending millions to air that ad because gender identity is a topic that galvanizes the right and, they believe, can raise doubts about Harris in the minds of other voters. It's so touchy the Harris campaign has refused to say that she's running on the same positions she took in that interview four years ago.

And as for the Harris ad, polls show a huge majority of Americans have a very negative view of Putin, so refreshing voters' suspicions about the ties between him and Trump also makes political sense.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, I think polling is pretty broken when 2 polls release within days and one says Trump +13 in FL and one says Trump +4 in FL

Like that shouldn’t happen. +4 and +6, yeah. But a 9 point difference says something is fundamentally wrong with the industry. 

I think it just shows the limits of this tool.  We are using a hacksaw to cut things that have to be measured in micrometers.  We live in a 50.1% world, and polls are made for 55-45s.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Mypillows selling for 1488 is I'm sure just a total coincidence.

 

MyPillow guy is apparently negotiable on the 14 words part, but he's all-fucking-in on the "Heil Hitler (Trump)" / 88 part.

Edited by Gap03
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Posted

https://apnews.com/article/trump-campaign-donations-small-donors-decline-f1a6b238d15edb3f72260e4c86d2c552

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Trump’s small-dollar donor fundraising is beset by confusion and fatigue

Quote

GOP operatives said the trend could portend trouble for the broader party. Trump’s fundraising dip raises questions about the party’s ability to continue tapping its aging base for funds. Such voters often live on fixed incomes and don’t have the extra cash to contribute to candidates, and polls have consistently found that the Republican base is growing older.

 

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Posted
35 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I see the ad about trans inmates probably 15-20 times every football game. 

There are only two types of ads he plays up here. That one and a variety about illegals destroying everything. Raping, murdering, spreading fentanyl everywhere, but also taking up all of the jobs and houses. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, heso said:

I see the ad about trans inmates probably 15-20 times every football game. 

There are only two types of ads he plays up here. That one and a variety about illegals destroying everything. Raping, murdering, spreading fentanyl everywhere, but also taking up all of the jobs and houses. 

Well he has a point, fentanyl used to be a poor white trash business, so they’re taking those jobs and forcing them to deal meth instead. It’s a tough time for the whites.

Edited by 'stache
Posted
Just now, 6th Street said:

When is the Trump N word tape coming out?

No one I know who is planning on voting for Trump would change their vote if a recording of him saying the N word was released.  It might energize Dem turnout but he’s not losing any votes saying the N word.

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Posted (edited)

Ok so this is what an engagement farming tweet looks like. I'm just posting the screen shot so it doesn't get any more interaction:

image.thumb.png.201e9d1babe4fcb466b1894ce5ef28fd.png

Now on face value you'd think that this means Nevada is overwhelmingly going to the GOP, right?

But guess what?

CLARK COUNTY HASN'T EVEN SENT OUT THEIR BALLOTS YET.

Why even post this other than to panic troll Democrats?

Edited by The Dog
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Posted
53 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, to be fair, that's the screenshot from Truth. Which has like no users. Tell me what the views were when that screenshot was posted on whatever Twitter handle passes it along to the masses on twitter.

See but that just proves the point. Trump has to use other people's popularity to pass along his message because he really doesn't have much outside of his core base of weirdos. People didn't follow him to truth social, because he has "low ratings."

Posted
1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Ok so this is what an engagement farming tweet looks like. I'm just posting the screen shot so it doesn't get any more interaction:

image.thumb.png.201e9d1babe4fcb466b1894ce5ef28fd.png

Now on face value you'd think that this means Nevada is overwhelmingly going to the GOP, right?

But guess what?

CLARK COUNTY HASN'T EVEN SENT OUT THEIR BALLOTS YET.

Why even post this other than to panic troll Democrats?

It’s def for clicks

Ralston even joked LANDSLIDE and then was like “lol no, that’s a joke, Clark hasn’t done anything yet”

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Posted
Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Also the total is 4000. So it’s net 600 to R excluding Other.  Maybe those % are about right for Nevada minus Vegas?  But it’s still a tiny delta at present. 

Usually outside of Clark, it’s overwhelmingly R. Except Reno is like 50/50 the last few cycles 

Ralston will usually do his analysis where Dems and GOP win 92-95% of those ballots and then if the indie vote is 55/45 either way and 50/50. But way too soon to read anything into these numbers 

Again, looking at the data without Clark is like analyzing Georgia without Atlanta or Wisconsin without Milwaukee. It’s pointless click bait engagement. 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

No one I know who is planning on voting for Trump would change their vote if a recording of him saying the N word was released.  It might energize Dem turnout but he’s not losing any votes saying the N word.

Fair. It might actually end up being a positive for him

Posted
39 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

 

MyPillow guy is apparently negotiable on the 14 words part, but he's all-fucking-in on the "Heil Hitler (Trump)" / 88 part.

I had to look that up, and now I'm ragey for the rest of the day with the knowledge that not only does this moronic shit exist, but also that this imbecile is somehow still selling those awful, nazi-pillows.

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Posted
27 minutes ago, heso said:

I see the ad about trans inmates probably 15-20 times every football game. 

There are only two types of ads he plays up here. That one and a variety about illegals destroying everything. Raping, murdering, spreading fentanyl everywhere, but also taking up all of the jobs and houses. 

This data (and the results from 2022) tells me that focusing on transphobia is a very dumb strategy. Maybe the ads tested well with focus groups.

Posted
26 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Ok so this is what an engagement farming tweet looks like. I'm just posting the screen shot so it doesn't get any more interaction:

image.thumb.png.201e9d1babe4fcb466b1894ce5ef28fd.png

Now on face value you'd think that this means Nevada is overwhelmingly going to the GOP, right?

But guess what?

CLARK COUNTY HASN'T EVEN SENT OUT THEIR BALLOTS YET.

Why even post this other than to panic troll Democrats?

I thought voting by mail was fraud? They should probably just invalidate the republican ballots.

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Posted (edited)

Wild won that 51-49 in 2022 and 49.7-49.1 Biden in 2020 under current lines

More good district level polling 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I mean, I think polling is pretty broken when 2 polls release within days and one says Trump +13 in FL and one says Trump +4 in FL

Like that shouldn’t happen. +4 and +6, yeah. But a 9 point difference says something is fundamentally wrong with the industry. 

I said it before but it bears repeating state polling is fucking crazy, that is why I pay attention to national polls that have way less variance but are fucked by the stupid EC.

Posted

These hurricanes are really big deals.  I bet there are millions spread between FL, GA, and NC -- all important states in this election -- that simply won't vote because they are too busy getting their lives back together.  We talk about whatever Muslim group in MI or whatever.  These two weather events will outpace them all.

Posted
2 minutes ago, linux said:

I said it before but it bears repeating state polling is fucking crazy, that is why I pay attention to national polls that have way less variance but are fucked by the stupid EC.

District polls and national polls are telling a very diff story from state level polling - unless Harris is going to hit 2016 levels of WWC support and shed 10% of non-white voters and pick up zero additional suburb/college voter support.

Posted
10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

District polls and national polls are telling a very diff story from state level polling - unless Harris is going to hit 2016 levels of WWC support and shed 10% of non-white voters and pick up zero additional suburb/college voter support.

It's just wild that the national's show she is popular, liked, and people are feeling better about the economy, while Trump remains as divisive and generally unliked as ever.....and the states show undecideds almost uniformly breakng to Trump.  Like one or the other is totally wrong in judging the mood of the electorate. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It's just wild that the national's show she is popular, liked, and people are feeling better about the economy, while Trump remains as divisive and generally unliked as ever.....and the states show undecideds almost uniformly breakng to Trump.  Like one or the other is totally wrong in judging the mood of the electorate. 

Yeah I don’t get it either. I don’t want to say they are intentionally over sampling Trump voters but the NYT did admit they were adding in extra Trump voter demographics (if Trump voters were red M&Ms, they are intentionally adding extra red ones to the bowl) and that’s all I can come up with

National polls show a 3-5 point Harris race, district polls show her doing better in the suburbs than Biden and when you have state polls saying he’s going to sweep a majority of the swing states.  

Posted
1 hour ago, miguelito said:

Didn't Putin come out and corroborate Woodward's story?

I am waiting for the other shoe to drop on this.  I doubt Trump snuck into a warehouse, stole some machines, and Fedex'ed it to Putin.  There has to be a paper trail on it.  Maybe it's covered by executive privilege which would prevent getting it through FOIA.  But Biden has access to it and can release it.  If it is exists.  It's possible the story is wrong.  It is also possible that they are waiting for Trump to deny it directly. It's also possible they have it and won't release it, due to some deference for executive privilege. 

18 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

This data (and the results from 2022) tells me that focusing on transphobia is a very dumb strategy. Maybe the ads tested well with focus groups.

 

I don't think we are reading the polling the same way.  

  • Banning government insurance from covering the costs of gender-affirming surgeries and therapies (+9)

So, most Americans don't believe government insurance should cover it.  I imagine that number goes up when you add "....for prisoners."

Still, I don't think this is something that would push independents to the polls. Who knows.  We are a stupid people. 

Posted
22 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

These hurricanes are really big deals.  I bet there are millions spread between FL, GA, and NC -- all important states in this election -- that simply won't vote because they are too busy getting their lives back together.  We talk about whatever Muslim group in MI or whatever.  These two weather events will outpace them all.

The R's seem to be worried as hell about NC.  Sure, Asheville is a liberal outpost but if you know anything about Western NC, you know it's hard red.  David Axelrod took heat for saying it but he pointed out the Asheville crowd is wealthier and more educated and as a result, they'll still likely vote.  The rest?  Maybe, maybe not.

Now you throw in conservative parts of Florida and who knows?

I find it ironic that the Republicans have spent the last four years making it harder to vote are now going to get fucked by it.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It's just wild that the national's show she is popular, liked, and people are feeling better about the economy, while Trump remains as divisive and generally unliked as ever.....and the states show undecideds almost uniformly breakng to Trump.  Like one or the other is totally wrong in judging the mood of the electorate. 

And I have yet to see anyone mention that damn near every single key election country-wide since 2021 has had actual results to the left of the polls.  I get that this is an election year, but to completely ignore that reality is wild.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I am waiting for the other shoe to drop on this.  I doubt Trump snuck into a warehouse, stole some machines, and Fedex'ed it to Putin.  There has to be a paper trail on it.  Maybe it's covered by executive privilege which would prevent getting it through FOIA.  But Biden has access to it and can release it.  If it is exists.  It's possible the story is wrong.  It is also possible that they are waiting for Trump to deny it directly. It's also possible they have it and won't release it, due to some deference for executive privilege. 

 

I don't think we are reading the polling the same way.  

  • Banning government insurance from covering the costs of gender-affirming surgeries and therapies (+9)

So, most Americans don't believe government insurance should cover it.  I imagine that number goes up when you add "....for prisoners."

Still, I don't think this is something that would push independents to the polls. Who knows.  We are a stupid people. 

I have no doubt people are against using tax dollars for gender reassignment surgery (honestly I expected it to do much worse than -9) but trans issues are definitely not something that cracks the top ten most important issues for anyone except trans Americans or people with loved ones who are transgender, so the heavy focus on transphobia is a real head-scratcher.

Like, I get the xenophobic stuff because immigration is a top-five issue (and close to #1 for Trump's base) and Democrats have been talking about the border, too. They could be talking about the economy instead of fearmongering about women's sports. I think it's a losing strategy and I hope they keep it up.

Posted
9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It's just wild that the national's show she is popular, liked, and people are feeling better about the economy, while Trump remains as divisive and generally unliked as ever.....and the states show undecideds almost uniformly breakng to Trump.  Like one or the other is totally wrong in judging the mood of the electorate. 

They can both be true, because of who the undecideds are and where they live, but there aren’t many. The opinion cake is baked, and this election really comes down to

1) how much of an electoral advantage the Republicans still have as more states have urbanized and 

2) GOTV

Posted
3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

They can both be true, because of who the undecideds are and where they live, but there aren’t many. The opinion cake is baked, and this election really comes down to

1) how much of an electoral advantage the Republicans still have as more states have urbanized and 

2) GOTV

Good thing the GOP has zero ground game. Republicans have been screaming that they don’t see any canvassers and the “field offices” are empty storefronts in strip malls 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah I don’t get it either. I don’t want to say they are intentionally over sampling Trump voters but the NYT did admit they were adding in extra Trump voter demographics (if Trump voters were red M&Ms, they are intentionally adding extra red ones to the bowl) and that’s all I can come up with

National polls show a 3-5 point Harris race, district polls show her doing better in the suburbs than Biden and when you have state polls saying he’s going to sweep a majority of the swing states.  

 

9 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

And I have yet to see anyone mention that damn near every single key election country-wide since 2021 has had actual results to the left of the polls.  I get that this is an election year, but to completely ignore that reality is wild.

These are the two things I’m struggling with. Even chucking extra M&M’s in, she remains much more favorable than him. Plus some of the extra M&M’s they are adding (black men, young white men, and Hispanics) are notoriously unreliable likely voters. But I guess this is modern polling when 80% of people will only answer a call from their mom/dad/kid. 
 

The fact that Gallego is winning bigly, abortion is on the ballot, and Harris is losing is one of those “Magnetism is magic and you can’t convince me otherwise” Wtf.

Edited by Bateshorn
Posted
1 hour ago, Gap03 said:

 

MyPillow guy is apparently negotiable on the 14 words part, but he's all-fucking-in on the "Heil Hitler (Trump)" / 88 part.

uuuuuh you're not supposed to be proud of the boot camp scenes in Full Metal Jacket, that shit drove a man to murder-suicide. Of fucking course Trump misses the entire point of that half of the movie.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I have no doubt people are against using tax dollars for gender reassignment surgery (honestly I expected it to do much worse than -9) but trans issues are definitely not something that cracks the top ten most important issues for anyone except trans Americans or people with loved ones who are transgender, so the heavy focus on transphobia is a real head-scratcher.

 

Agreeing to gender affirmation surgery for prisoners or govt-issued insured recipients, is a loser issue for Dems. Most Americans struggle with this issue and believe it's not a life saving treatment especially for prisoners. Dems should be clear that tax dollars won't go to federal prisoners for these treatments.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

PA firewall jumped 31k to 162k. 40% of the way to 390,000 

I do think Dems could surpass it

Can someone explain the firewall? I keep hearing this and I don’t understand it 

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Agreeing to gender affirmation surgery for prisoners or govt-issued insured recipients, is a loser issue for Dems. Most Americans struggle with this issue and believe it's not a life saving treatment especially for prisoners. Dems should be clear that tax dollars won't go to federal prisoners for these treatments.

Just defy the courts?

https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/federal-court-orders-first-gender-affirming-surgery-trans-prisoner-rcna25377

Posted
1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Can someone explain the firewall? I keep hearing this and I don’t understand it 

Joshua Smithley is PA's version of Jon Ralston.  His estimate is Dems need a 390,000 vote firewall (solely Dem returns - Rep returns, not including indies) to feel good heading into Election Day on the presidential side and 350,000 to feel good on the Senate side.  Obviously if the indies break 55-45 for Harris, it builds the firewall a little more, but you don't want to project independents like that. 

 

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

See but that just proves the point. Trump has to use other people's popularity to pass along his message because he really doesn't have much outside of his core base of weirdos. People didn't follow him to truth social, because he has "low ratings."

This is a flawed concept. Before Trump got permanently suspended from Twitter, he had like 100 million followers. He still has over 91 million followers on Twitter, but they de-platformed him. Just becuase he's a narcissist and only posts on Truth Social, doesn't mean that his message isn't attractive to vast amounts of people, or that or that his message isn't getting to massive amounts of people. It just means Truth Social is small. 

If he had "low ratings" he wouldn't be a lock for 46% of the electorate. 

Posted
11 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Agreeing to gender affirmation surgery for prisoners or govt-issued insured recipients, is a loser issue for Dems. Most Americans struggle with this issue and believe it's not a life saving treatment especially for prisoners. Dems should be clear that tax dollars won't go to federal prisoners for these treatments.

I struggle with, I guess, standard of care issues with the prison population when the question comes up for whatever reason. Stuff like should they have eligible for organ transplants. Is there a level of medical care that is forfeited by virtue of being incarcerated?  Is it sentence dependent?  Age dependent?  
 

Even food quality is a conversation- is bare minimum low quality food ok?  Is it cruel?  Is the cheapest allowed food the only financially responsible thing to do?

but unlike food, I’d guess that organ transplants and gender affirmation surgery is rare and therefore not a large number on the expense line.  And then unlike organ replacement, a gender affirmation surgery isn’t taking opportunity away from another person. 
 

So I guess in summation, gender affirmation surgery for the incarcerated doesn’t seem like something worth being concerned about in the financial sense.  Within the context of how inmates treat each other, maybe that’s a problem.  I don’t know, I only see depictions on tv and movies. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I struggle with, I guess, standard of care issues with the prison population when the question comes up for whatever reason. Stuff like should they have eligible for organ transplants. Is there a level of medical care that is forfeited by virtue of being incarcerated?  Is it sentence dependent?  Age dependent?  
 

Even food quality is a conversation- is bare minimum low quality food ok?  Is it cruel?  Is the cheapest allowed food the only financially responsible thing to do?

but unlike food, I’d guess that organ transplants and gender affirmation surgery is rare and therefore not a large number on the expense line.  And then unlike organ replacement, a gender affirmation surgery isn’t taking opportunity away from another person. 
 

So I guess in summation, gender affirmation surgery for the incarcerated doesn’t seem like something worth being concerned about in the financial sense.  Within the context of how inmates treat each other, maybe that’s a problem.  I don’t know, I only see depictions on tv and movies. 

If your side "lost" in prison practice, you get burnt toast and cold runny eggs. 



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