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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Nobody thought the Russians would be as incompetent as they were or that they had lost so much institutional knowledge over the past decade or two..

there were many who failed to predict even the invasion

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0T2MYXljL5o

 

The point is that Milley had access to every bit of military intelligence, cia intelligence, international intelligence etc.  I mean one of the main tenets of his job is to know this stuff.  There are likely hundreds of military people at the Pentagon and across the globe whose  job was to know what the state of the Russian military was as well as the Ukrainian military.  It is massive incompetence.  I get university officials making bad predictions or even politicians making bad predictions, but the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has to do better.  One mistake should have had him demoted but 2 spectacular failures is ridiculous.

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Posted

Oh, tariffs were just a figure of speech.

oh-sure-john-candy.gif

https://www.the-express.com/news/politics/151566/donald-trump-tariffs-figure-of-speech

Quote

Stumbling Trump says tariffs are 'figure of speech' after Fox News host slams his policy

The former president made a bizarre claim to the right-wing media outlet about his policy proposal shortly ahead of the election.

By Falyn Stempler

 

Donald Trump made bizarre claims after being pressed by Fox News about his economic policy proposals.

The former president said his plan to impose tariffs on foreign goods will spur economic growth and combat inflation – which is overall up 19.9% under the Biden administration – without imposing tariffs on citizens after being pressed by Fox News' Maria Bartiromo.

However, several economists, including The Committee for a Responsible Budget, have said his plans would increase the debt by $7.4 trillion, which they say is more than Kamala Harris' plan would.

"If I do this, you're gonna have car companies coming back to the country," he told Fox News.

Trump also claimed citizens would not absorb the costs if he imposed foreign tariffs despite pushback from economists.

 

Trump has suggested at several rallies and public appearances that he would impose a 200% tariff on imported goods.

Economists say this would result in jacking up prices for consumers, however Trump refuted the economic theory.

"No it's not - no no," he said. "It's gotta be passed on somehow."

He also suggested his remarks are theoretical, harkening back to his remarks during the September debate with Harris on CNN that he has "concepts of a plan."

"I'm using 200 percent tariffs just as a figure of speech," he added. "Well I'll say 100, 200, I'll say 500. I don't care."

His top campaign promise is to enforce the "largest deportation in US history," which he has raved about many rallies.

Trump has also vowed to tap 10,000 new border agents and incentivize them with $10,000 bonuses.

 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

The point is that Milley had access to every bit of military intelligence, cia intelligence, international intelligence etc.  I mean one of the main tenets of his job is to know this stuff.  There are likely hundreds of military people at the Pentagon and across the globe whose  job was to know what the state of the Russian military was as well as the Ukrainian military.  It is massive incompetence.  I get university officials making bad predictions or even politicians making bad predictions, but the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has to do better.  One mistake should have had him demoted but 2 spectacular failures is ridiculous.

Not to be rude, but where do you sit on the org chart at your work, and is it a large organization? 

The people at the top of the food chain are often the most vulnerable, because by the very nature of the pyramid, they are farthest away from the fact gathering and thus have the least ability to determine whether the information is true or not. To that end, they must rely on the information they receive from people who supposedly know what they were talking about.   i’ll give you that the person on top needs to have it ability to tell whether or not they are being bullshitted -  and to have their own people that they trust act to vet info.  that said, military people are really good at military stuff, but often seem to suck at the political and cultural ramifications of their military actions.

 If the intelligence community fed him the information that led to his ultimate conclusion and opinion, that is not on him. It is indeed on those under him who gave him that information. And if the buck stops with him, well, that’s as it should be. But it is no way says he is incompetent. It certainly indicates that other people may be. 

i’m limiting this to Afghanistan. your blaming him for the outcome of the Ukraine invasion is ridiculous.

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Posted
Again, it gives Fox some kind of credibility and they have none, as proven in a court of law.  Kamala shouldn't give them the opportunity.  But here we are again, running out the clock.

Pretending that the most watched news network in the country doesn’t exist is a Hillary-esque, loser move.

The goal isn’t to switch votes, it’s to convince voters that you winning isn’t the end of the world. If you let your opposition define you without pushback, then you cannot be surprised when the general public believes it.
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Posted
25 minutes ago, sheeeit said:

The point is that Milley had access to every bit of military intelligence, cia intelligence, international intelligence etc.  I mean one of the main tenets of his job is to know this stuff.  There are likely hundreds of military people at the Pentagon and across the globe whose  job was to know what the state of the Russian military was as well as the Ukrainian military.  It is massive incompetence.  I get university officials making bad predictions or even politicians making bad predictions, but the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has to do better.  One mistake should have had him demoted but 2 spectacular failures is ridiculous.

As @wildcat09 mentioned, if Hostomel falls, Kyiv likely falls within 72 hours.  In other words, if the Russians had more competence and luck on their side, things unravel fast.

You can visit us in the DT thread and I can dig up the videos discussing how dicey things got with the attack on the Hostomel airfield.  A lot point to the convoy stalling just north of Kyiv, but Hostomel was more important.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


Pretending that the most watched news network in the country doesn’t exist is a Hillary-esque, loser move.

The goal isn’t to switch votes, it’s to convince voters that you winning isn’t the end of the world. If you let your opposition define you without pushback, then you cannot be surprised when the general public believes it.

Also does not hurt to develop some type of relationship with them because when she wins, they will be at press briefings.

Plus I hope Pete gave her all the tips and tricks for how to handle this 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
14 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


Pretending that the most watched news network in the country doesn’t exist is a Hillary-esque, loser move.

The goal isn’t to switch votes, it’s to convince voters that you winning isn’t the end of the world. If you let your opposition define you without pushback, then you cannot be surprised when the general public believes it.

If the general public chooses to watch Fox for their "news", then they're willfully signing up to be brainwashed. 

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Posted
32 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Streisand Effect?

 

No one is going to a theatre to watch a Donald Trump movie.  People are Trump fatigued and paying $12 and spending 2 hours to watch a movie about Roy Cohn and Trump is a non-starter.

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Posted

image.png.947c874e59d5cc3403074f91828a58a8.png
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/13/opinion/polls-harris-trump.html

Quote

 

Here’s a bit of advice to help maintain your sanity over the next few weeks until Election Day: Just ignore the polls. Unless you’re a campaign professional or a gambler, you’re probably looking at them for the same reason the rest of us are: to know who’ll win. Or at least to feel like you know who’ll win. But they just can’t tell you that.

Back in 2016, Harry Enten, then at FiveThirtyEight, calculated the final polling error in every presidential election between 1968 and 2012. On average, the polls missed by two percentage points. In 2016, an American Association for Public Opinion Research postmortem found that the average error of the national polls was 2.2 points, but the polls of individual states were off by 5.1 points. In 2020, the national polls were off by 4.5 points and the state-level polls missed, again, by 5.1 points.

You could imagine a world in which these errors are random and cancel one another out. Perhaps Donald Trump’s support is undercounted by three points in Michigan but overcounted by three points in Wisconsin. But errors often systematically favor one candidate or the other. In both 2016 and 2020, for instance, state-level polls tended to undercount Trump supporters. The polls overestimated Hillary Clinton’s margin by three points in 2016 and Joe Biden’s margin by 4.3 points in 2020.

In a blowout election, an error of a few points in one direction or another is meaningless. In the California Senate race, for example, Adam Schiff, a Democrat, is leading Steve Garvey, a Republican, by between 17 and 33 points, depending on the poll. Even a polling error of 10 points wouldn’t matter to the outcome of the race.

But that’s not where the presidential election sits. As of Oct. 10, The New York Times’s polling average had Kamala Harris leading Trump by three points nationally. That’s tight, but the seven swing states are tighter: Neither candidate is leading by more than two points in any of them.

Imagine the polls perform better in 2024 than they did in either 2016 or 2020: They’re off, remarkably, by merely two points in the swing states. Huzzah! That would be consistent with Harris winning every swing state. It would also be consistent with Trump winning every swing state. This is not some outlandish scenario. According to Nate Silver’s election model, the most likely electoral outcome “is Harris sweeping all seven swing states. And the next most likely is Trump sweeping all seven.”

Which is all to say: The polls can’t tell you the way in which they’re going to be wrong, nor by how much. But that’s what matters now.

A race this tight is delightful for people who enjoy thinking about polling methodologies. My colleague Nate Cohn had a fascinating write-up last week of how polls are diverging based on whether pollsters are “weighting on recalled vote” or not. The short version is this: Pollsters are desperate to avoid the mistakes they made in 2016 and 2020, when they undercounted Trump supporters. So most pollsters are asking voters to recall who they voted for in 2020 and then using that information to make sure Trump voters are fully represented. Pollsters who do that are getting results that show a very 2020-like pattern in voting. Pollsters who don’t do that are seeing substantially different results.

But people are notoriously bad at recalling past votes. Using that data may just bias polls further. In a month or so, we’ll (hopefully) know which methodological choice was right. But until then, if you’re not a professional pollster, do you really need to be spending the fleeting minutes you have on this earth thinking about weighting on recalled votes? Call people you care about and tell them you love them. Take 10 deep breaths and watch where your mind wanders. Do literally anything else.

Here’s the other reason you can safely tune out the daily polling news: The polls are remarkably, eerily stable.

A week before the Harris-Trump debate in September, Harris led Trump by three points. Then came the debate, during which Trump turned in the second-worst debate performance in recent memory. Then came another attempted assassination of Trump, after the shooting at a campaign rally in July. Then the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Then Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon. Then came the vice-presidential debate. Then came a surprisingly strong jobs report. In this period, Harris released an 82-page booklet of policy proposals and Jack Smith, the special counsel prosecuting Trump in the Jan. 6 case, filed a 165-page brief adding new details of Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. After all that, Harris is now leading Trump by … three points.

There are voters who are still undecided, but they are, almost by definition, voters who pay less attention to political news and are either so uninterested in politics or so cynical about both candidates that nothing has yet caused them to make up their minds. There are many more voters whose minds are made up but may or may not actually fill out ballots by Election Day. These are the voters who will decide the election, and they’re not tipping their hands yet.

I suspect, if you’re reading this column, you’re not one of those voters. So give yourself a break. Step off the emotional roller coaster. If you want to do something to affect the election, donate money or time in a swing state — ideally to a state party or down-ballot race, where your efforts will go further — or volunteer in a local race. Call anyone in your life who might actually be undecided or might not be registered to vote or might not make it to the polls. And then let go. There’s nothing more you can do, and nothing more the polls can do for you.

 

 

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Posted
If the general public chooses to watch Fox for their "news", then they're willfully signing up to be brainwashed. 

The more Democrats ignore the channel, the further from reality those folks can position themselves.

It benefits no one to allow that channel to craft its own reality without pushback.
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Posted

Lol Gallup needs to stop doing polling. A month ago, everyone was flipping out because they had the national party ID at R+3 and that meant Dems were going to lose badly  

This month? D+4 

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:


The more Democrats ignore the channel, the further from reality those folks can position themselves.

It benefits no one to allow that channel to craft its own reality without pushback.

There’s a reason they send Pete on it and Walz has been on it 2 Sundays in a row 

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Posted
1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

If they hadn't fought the Russians off at the airfield near Kyiv and the Russian military hadn't pawned all its good tires for vodka it probably would've ended about that quickly.  

Man, I was very clearly asking what the fuck you were talking about thinking it's easy to prove citizenship.  

Try renewing your DL these days, as a native born white man.

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Posted
44 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Not to be rude, but where do you sit on the org chart at your work, and is it a large organization? 

The people at the top of the food chain are often the most vulnerable, because by the very nature of the pyramid, they are farthest away from the fact gathering and thus have the least ability to determine whether the information is true or not. To that end, they must rely on the information they receive from people who supposedly know what they were talking about.   i’ll give you that the person on top needs to have it ability to tell whether or not they are being bullshitted -  and to have their own people that they trust act to vet info.  that said, military people are really good at military stuff, but often seem to suck at the political and cultural ramifications of their military actions.

 If the intelligence community fed him the information that led to his ultimate conclusion and opinion, that is not on him. It is indeed on those under him who gave him that information. And if the buck stops with him, well, that’s as it should be. But it is no way says he is incompetent. It certainly indicates that other people may be. 

i’m limiting this to Afghanistan. your blaming him for the outcome of the Ukraine invasion is ridiculous.

It's sheeeit.

Posted
1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

If they hadn't fought the Russians off at the airfield near Kyiv and the Russian military hadn't pawned all its good tires for vodka it probably would've ended about that quickly.  

 

those ukraine troops at the airport that evening saved the country. epic fail by russia. 

 

https://warontherocks.com/2023/08/the-battle-of-hostomel-airport-a-key-moment-in-russias-defeat-in-kyiv/

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Posted
44 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

i’m limiting this to Afghanistan. your blaming him for the outcome of the Ukraine invasion is ridiculous.

While I agree with everything you wrote, I do admit to reading about generals of antiquity committing ritual suicide for losing battles and appreciating the integrity of the act.  

Posted
29 minutes ago, wood said:

oh. my. fucking. god.

 

I knew about that but I didn’t have that article bookmarked yet. I wonder which sub-folder under ‘Bookmarks\Politics\Donald Trump’ I should put it in: ‘Fraud,’ ‘Grift,’ or ‘Human Scum.’

I went with Human Scum. 

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Posted
15 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Try renewing your DL these days, as a native born white man.

LOL, yep. The amount of shit I have to bring with me for that is insane, and I've been licensed to drive in this state for 45 years.

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Wait, are you just now finding out about the charity scam?

Yeah. At least this one. I avoided most news for a significant stretch because I was sick of seeing, well, soul-crushing shit like this exact story.

Sorry not sorry for the old news, but at least maybe it'll get the word out to people who may have forgotten or never knew, like me.

Edited by wood
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Posted
7 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

I knew about that but I didn’t have that article bookmarked yet. I wonder which sub-folder under ‘Bookmarks\Politics\Donald Trump’ I should put it in: ‘Fraud,’ ‘Grift,’ or ‘Human Scum.’

I went with Human Scum. 

Sounds about right. And yeah, long but good article. Soulless fucking vampires, they are.

Posted

 

4 minutes ago, wood said:

LOL, yep. The amount of shit I have to bring with me for that is insane, and I've been licensed to drive in this state for 45 years.

 I took a debit card to pay for it and my passport and that was it.   This was 10 days ago.

(Sidenote I learned the Fletchers Corny Dog stand  on the east side of the Cotton Bowl will not sell you a beer if they can’t scan your ID no matter how old you look and they can’t scan the temporary one. Thankfully still had my clipped one in my wallet). 

Posted
15 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

While I agree with everything you wrote, I do admit to reading about generals of antiquity committing ritual suicide for losing battles and appreciating the integrity of the act.  

I guess they finally decided that - say - von Blucher’s cavalry was an hour late, Wellington did not really need to off himself. 

Posted
Just now, Surly Bevo said:

 

 I took a debit card to pay for it and my passport and that was it.   This was 10 days ago.

Cool. Maybe they've streamlined it. Mine was last summer and it was stupidly redundant and complex.

Posted
34 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

As @wildcat09 mentioned, if Hostomel falls, Kyiv likely falls within 72 hours.  In other words, if the Russians had more competence and luck on their side, things unravel fast.

You can visit us in the DT thread and I can dig up the videos discussing how dicey things got with the attack on the Hostomel airfield.  A lot point to the convoy stalling just north of Kyiv, but Hostomel was more important.

We will just have to disagree.  You act as if luck and competence have never been considered before when making predictions for military battles.  He didn't say it's 60/40 or even 80/20.  He said 3 days.  That means no amount of luck and/or incompetence can stall this.  It would probably take the tanks a few days just to get there unopposed.   I readily admit that luck played a big part.  It always does.  I think only an idiot would stick his neck out there and make a prediction like that to Congress and POTUS.  His judgement was terrible.  Couple that with his assessment of Afghanistan and he was not competent for his position.

Plus, these are not under the radar events where somehow the top people got fooled by their underlings.  The Russia invasion was the greatest geopolitical event in years.  The US, as well as every other first world country in the world, have been assessing Russia and their competencies for years.  I believe, just my opinion, that there were almost certainly  factions within the intelligence and military communities that had very different opinions on both Russia and Afghanistan.  Milley's job was to sort it out and find the reality.  He was comically wrong on both events.  

This is not political.  Some poster said Milley fucks.  I merely pointed out that for the 2 most significant events that happened under his watch, he failed miserably in his assessment.  

Posted
Just now, wood said:

Cool. Maybe they've streamlined it. Mine was last summer and it was stupidly redundant and complex.

Oh I don't know what happens if you don't have a passport, that seems to be THE master document that establishes both residency and identify.....I'm sure it's a slow slide into shit from there.

I do know that no matter whether you have a passport or not that when you are a 16-year-old kid trying to get a license for the first time they might as well be asking for a kidney.   

Posted
23 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


The more Democrats ignore the channel, the further from reality those folks can position themselves.

It benefits no one to allow that channel to craft its own reality without pushback.

Great, maybe she can go on the Daily Caller next. I mean, if Fox were to move to the center, then their shitty audience just goes to the Daily Caller or some other dark place that will wantonly carry their views. I hear what you're saying--there's an audience there that can only be reached through Fox, so meet them on their preferred medium.  The people who want to go back to the 50s aren't looking for equality and empathy. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

We have a couple of Ukraine War threads. One of them right here in Cloak Room. If you want to shit on Milley kindly take it there.

Dude, he's all-in on "nobody knows more about the military than me" from Trump.  Milley is a libtard dumbass because he....assessed Ukraine's military position relative to Russia EXACTLY as functionally every other military strategist of any significance in the world did ahead of the invasion.  And yeah, were it not for miracle plays like defending the airport and keeping Zelensky from being assassinated, it IS a few day war.

But again.  He's a member of the church of Mr. "Nobody knows more about ______ than me."  So, take what he says for exactly the IQ points it reflects.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

Great, maybe she can go on the Daily Caller next. I mean, if Fox were to move to the center, then their shitty audience just goes to the Daily Caller or some other dark place that will wantonly carry their views. I hear what you're saying--there's an audience there that can only be reached through Fox, so meet them on their preferred medium.  The people who want to go back to the 50s aren't looking for equality and empathy. 

Daily Caller is not in the WH press room. I do think she should find some sort of relationship with the members of  the WH press corp. 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:


Pretending that the most watched news network in the country doesn’t exist is a Hillary-esque, loser move.

The goal isn’t to switch votes, it’s to convince voters that you winning isn’t the end of the world. If you let your opposition define you without pushback, then you cannot be surprised when the general public believes it.

And for the record, Hillary won the popular vote by a landslide. Republicans can win elections with a minority, and each time Democrats win, they re-up their gaming the system. Well, if Kamala can just speak at some of the central, more prominent Klan rallies, maybe she can reach a segment of the population Democrats couldn't ordinarily reach.  

Edited by Mdhorn
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Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Daily Caller is not in the WH press room. I do think she should find some sort of relationship with the members of  the WH press corp. 

Fox News is on tv all day in like 90% of public places that have TVs, tons of private businesses, and every fucking military base in the country. 
 

Their “reporters” should be laughed right out of the press corps but the channel can’t just be totally ignored.

Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Daily Caller is not in the WH press room. I do think she should find some sort of relationship with the members of  the WH press corp. 

They're not looking for her support.  Their viewers aren't tuning in for an olive branch and reconciliation.  If FOX got bought out by Mark Cuban tomorrow, then their viewers migrate to a place like OAN or the Daily Caller, who with enough viewers, would get a person in the WH press corp.  Why not, they have relationships with Supreme Court Justices.   If Democrats can't win in the states they offered FEMA relief to, these people would be more willing to cut off their own life support than vote for a Democrat.  Logic has nothing to do with it--they vote against their interests.  If it weren't so, lowering prescription drugs should be a slam dunk, especially knowing that a Republican very much reverses it.  They don't care. I mean, if she undid the 18th Amendment, she'd hear a lot more agreement from their viewers, just not at the ballot box.  

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude, he's all-in on "nobody knows more about the military than me" from Trump.  Milley is a libtard dumbass because he....assessed Ukraine's military position relative to Russia EXACTLY as functionally every other military strategist of any significance in the world did ahead of the invasion.  And yeah, were it not for miracle plays like defending the airport and keeping Zelensky from being assassinated, it IS a few day war.

But again.  He's a member of the church of Mr. "Nobody knows more about ______ than me."  So, take what he says for exactly the IQ points it reflects.

I listened to an interview with McMaster that was an absolute beating.  It's hard to hear someone as bright as Preet try and find agreement with someone stating both sides, Democrats refused to meet Trump halfway bullshit for an hour.  Preet called him out several times and he wouldn't even stand by his own stances he stated in his own books.  Everybody that works in Trumps orbit is a shit bag.  

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Posted
34 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Oh I don't know what happens if you don't have a passport, that seems to be THE master document that establishes both residency and identify.....I'm sure it's a slow slide into shit from there.

I do know that no matter whether you have a passport or not that when you are a 16-year-old kid trying to get a license for the first time they might as well be asking for a kidney.   

I've had a passport almost as long as I've had  my license. IIRC that was one of the things I had to bring with me. Shouldn't need anything else, but I still had to bring all kinds of shit, and yeah, when my boys got their licenses, it was worse. I used to be able to renew by mail without even going in. I have no idea why I've had to go in the last 2 times. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

The “Harris is slipping support among Black men” is a fucking myth. It’s being put out there on purpose. 

If Harris loses, it will be solely because of the lack of the White vote. Her support among Blacks (and Black men) is fucking sky high.

 

Jesus Christ.

I'm willing to bet the same applies to most Muslims.  There's no way logically, that they could vote for someone or support another that would basically enable a presidency for someone that vocally states his disdain for Muslims.  That's akin to voting to potentially send your family back to the hell they escaped.  

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

I'm willing to bet the same applies to most Muslims.  There's no way logically, that they could vote for someone or support another that would basically enable a presidency for someone that vocally states his disdain for Muslims.  That's akin to voting to potentially send your family back to the hell they escaped.  

The media is amplifying the loudest voices willing to be attention whores and contrarians. Anyone whose first thought is it run to the media to shit talk Harris was never voting for her in the first place, for whatever reason. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Not to be rude, but where do you sit on the org chart at your work, and is it a large organization? 

The people at the top of the food chain are often the most vulnerable, because by the very nature of the pyramid, they are farthest away from the fact gathering and thus have the least ability to determine whether the information is true or not. To that end, they must rely on the information they receive from people who supposedly know what they were talking about.   i’ll give you that the person on top needs to have it ability to tell whether or not they are being bullshitted -  and to have their own people that they trust act to vet info.

I'm sorry, but this is so much horse shit.  I mean, if all you do is rely on those below you for information why do e level execs make 200x those they rely on for information?   For fucks sake!   E levels are like the weatherman... See I told you it might rain!

Posted
4 hours ago, David Dennison said:

That sucks, but it shouldn't be too difficult for a naturalized U.S. citizen to get back into the United States, never mind the fact that they shouldn't have to do it in the first place.

image.gif.5e7533238f8123c2ec672d07bb8b5852.gif

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