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2024 Presidential Election Thread


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3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Really we are putting all our money on:

polling systematically broken in unexplainable ways, and broken all in the same direction, and that broken direction is the opposite of the last errors when polling Trump; and/or

still a long time to election.  
 

Anything that doesn’t acknowledge that is copium.  

Yeah, but what are you gonna do?

Besides vote, of course.

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4 hours ago, safe sex said:

It's not baffling. Lots of people, I'm sure, are in the mindset of "oh it's not good for one party to have all the power even tho the other party is insane and traitorous"

I know literally zero people that vote like this.  

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Really we are putting all our money on:
polling systematically broken in unexplainable ways, and broken all in the same direction, and that broken direction is the opposite of the last errors when polling Trump; and/or
still a long time to election.  
 
Anything that doesn’t acknowledge that is copium.  
 

Either polling is wrong or every single thing that we “know” about how to run a presidential candidate is null and void. I understand that the polling stuff is more front and center to us commoners, but the campaign stuff would be equally unbelievable and just as unprecedented.

And the polling isn’t indicating something easy to explain like moderates slipping back red, it is showing the single greatest demographic shift of our lifetimes - in a low enthusiasm, rematch election. A shift that has not materialized even a little bit in any ACTUAL election over the past three years.

It’s not copium to acknowledge that the polls make no fucking sense.
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5 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


Either polling is wrong or every single thing that we “know” about how to run a presidential candidate is null and void. I understand that the polling stuff is more front and center to us commoners, but the campaign stuff would be equally unbelievable and just as unprecedented.

Elections are what matters.  Not polls.  And since 2020, elections have been showing that the polls are wrong.  

Or the country has completely lost its mind in the past 2 years and we are uber fucked.  

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12 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

He is, but a fuck ton of people in his orbit that have horrifying goals way different from him, are not.

I have a feeling the extent of their influence will depend on how good or bad those goals are for business.

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2 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

So at what point do we stop getting loaded on our supply of copium and realize Biden is heading for a loss?

At what point do you stop posting moronic shit.

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5 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Just baffling. So many ballot splitters. 
 

 


 

 

The 18 point delta between Gallego and Biden is ridiculous but possible due to Kari Lake's abysmal popularity (won't be shocked if she loses the primary). 

That said, I think more than half of those ticket spillers are reachable for Biden. On the flipside, I think Trump is close to the height of his popularity right now and has little to no room for further growth.

The Biden campaign IMO correctly believes that running an actual campaign will help close the gap in AZ and other states over the next 5 months.

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They might be overselling this a bit.  Look like he's shut his yap for a moment but maybe it's for dramatic effect (music rises).  It's not exactly a Moscow Mitch-level glitch.  

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

 

They might be overselling this a bit.  Look like he's shut his yap for a moment but maybe it's for dramatic effect (music rises).  It's not exactly a Moscow Mitch-level glitch.  

Been addressed. The prompter  froze and he just waited, instead of using his razor sharp mind to fill the time. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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8 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I really wonder what is causing Rubio’s shift toward Trump’s nutsack.  He was somewhat sane thru at least the beginning of 2022.  Maybe he’s been promised Sec of State.  I can’t imagine him wanting to be VP.

8 hours ago, Js1 said:

Yeah there’s a lot of crazy in FL and Trump’s endorsement would unseat him in a second 

Rubio doesn’t want to be in a primary with a Trump.

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6 hours ago, TDunk said:

Tik tok seems to play more favorable trump shit for "some" reason. Social media is awesome and sucks. 

Almost as if it is being done on purpose by a foreign entity to sow discord? Tik Tok is doing for the young this cycle what Facebook did for the olds in 2016. 

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Almost as if it is being done on purpose by a foreign entity to sow discord? Tik Tok is doing for the young this cycle what Facebook did for the olds in 2016. 

And both groups are too stupid and stubborn to admit they’ve been played.
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13 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

So at what point do we stop getting loaded on our supply of copium and realize Biden is heading for a loss?

How stupid. We control the voting process, the ballots and the software. On top of that, the biggest political donors are all Democrats, and that's not even close. Maga Moron doesn't have a chance in hell.

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Trump isn’t winning the election.  Do I say that with 100% certainty? No. Only death, taxes and OU sucks is 100% guaranteed.  Come Election Day, those on the fence will come to their senses and vote Biden. 

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54 minutes ago, Underdog said:

Trump isn’t winning the election.  Do I say that with 100% certainty? No. Only death, taxes and OU sucks is 100% guaranteed.  Come Election Day, those on the fence will come to their senses and vote Biden. 

Agreed.  But Trump does have Putin backing him.

 

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Posted (edited)

It's always fair to say that you are unhappy with the results of someone that you previously gave your vote but it's something else to throw the vote to the other candidate based on that disappointment. 

 

On another note, the S&P 500 is up 58% from the last election date. Anyone with money in the stock market is a fool to not continue with Biden. Why rock the boat.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't understand that chart at all. 

Biden leads with black voters 62-15. Rest didn’t state a preference, will vote third party or won’t vote. 

He’s winning 85% of his black voters from 2020 and Trump is only retaining 70% of his. Of those who voted third party in 2020, Biden is winning 32-8

The data says of those who didn’t vote in 2020, Biden would win them 38-20. Those 20% of non-2020 voters are what’s skewing the polling with Trump’s number with black voters. They are low propensity/unlikely to turn out (same with non-2020 young voters) so unsure why they are leaking into likely voter screen since usually the first Q is did you vote in 2020/2022

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

And how are these people getting through likely voter screens??? 

Am I misreading this chart or is it saying that 22% of black voters who voted Trump in 2020 are planning on voting Biden this year (compared to 4% of the inverse)?  That seems like quite the opposite of the national narrative?

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1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Am I misreading this chart or is it saying that 22% of black voters who voted Trump in 2020 are planning on voting Biden this year (compared to 4% of the inverse)?  That seems like quite the opposite of the national narrative?

That’s what it says. Because the tiny samples in the polls are usually really bad and not accurate 

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That’s what it says. Because the tiny samples in the polls are usually really bad and not accurate 

So, to be clear, we are all being told that we need to believe polling that shows certain demographics slipping away from Biden towards Trump and yet THE POLLS DON'T EVEN SHOW THAT?!  What is happening?  

(And a minor quibble, but what the hell kind of poll offers "Not Sure" and "Don't Know" as two distinct options for "who do you plan to vote for?")

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2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

So, to be clear, we are all being told that we need to believe polling that shows certain demographics slipping away from Biden towards Trump and yet THE POLLS DON'T EVEN SHOW THAT?!  What is happening?  

(And a minor quibble, but what the hell kind of poll offers "Not Sure" and "Don't Know" as two distinct options for "who do you plan to vote for?")

  1. Biden
  2. Trump
  3. Not Sure
  4. Don't Know
  5. Eh, ask me again in November.
  6. Dotard
  7. Biden haha just kidding
  8. Still Not Sure
  9. The Old Guy
  10. Gary Johnson For Old Times Sake
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11 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

So, to be clear, we are all being told that we need to believe polling that shows certain demographics slipping away from Biden towards Trump and yet THE POLLS DON'T EVEN SHOW THAT?!  What is happening?  

(And a minor quibble, but what the hell kind of poll offers "Not Sure" and "Don't Know" as two distinct options for "who do you plan to vote for?")

hey man, don't discount this motherfucker.
nawc5pihg5p81.png

 

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It's always fair to say that you are unhappy with the results of someone that you previously gave your vote but it's something else to throw the vote to the other candidate based on that disappointment. 

 

On another note, the S&P 500 is up 58% from the last election date. Another with money in the stock market is a fool to not continue with Biden. Why rock the boat.

 

 

The stock market is up because of Trump not Biden.  Everything good that happens is because of Trump and everything bad is because we didn't let Trump make it good.  Now if the stock market were down then that would be Biden's fault.  

Trading Places Meme.gif

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2 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

 

 

The stock market is up because of Trump not Biden.  Everything good that happens is because of Trump and everything bad is because we didn't let Trump make it good.  Now if the stock market were down then that would be Biden's fault.  

Trading Places Meme.gif

and idiots hear/read that and go, "Yup."

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6 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

and idiots hear/read that and go, "Yup."

Idiots have finally become the dominant and most empowered constituency in American politics.  Once that happened, it was all over.

e19463c0-c7ec-4730-9902-9268b06c7a8d_tex

And you never could.  The idea that we could was an illusion, and it always was.  A lie we told ourselves so we could sleep at night.

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38 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I’m not sure why these keep getting posted. It’s fucking ridiculous. 

We have 161 million registered voters in the US, so a poll of 1,600 people who have the time and are dumb enough to answer unknown phone calls (or emails) to base the whole country's political future on makes perfect sense these days.

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What a piece of shit. In a normal world this should end the election. But our dumb fucking electoral college is keeping his hopes alive. Has there ever been a more clear need to scrap the EC.

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4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Very serious campaign 

It’s people who really aren’t all that serious that keep pumping Trump in these polls.  Those people usually don’t vote.  Of course I’m not as happy as I should be because there’s still a nonzero chance orange shitstain wins.  

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

It’s people who really aren’t all that serious that keep pumping Trump in these polls.  Those people usually don’t vote.  Of course I’m not as happy as I should be because there’s still a nonzero chance orange shitstain wins.  


his whole plan is to contest every lost state and hopes the house steps in

zero reason to spend money now 

Edited by tx 3 putt
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