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Venezuela Invasion of Guyana


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10 hours ago, F250 said:

Did you ever cover WWII in your history courses or was that considered current events.

The textbooks we used when I was an elementary & junior high school student in the 1940s & 50s only covered up to 1939.

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1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

The textbooks we used when I was an elementary & junior high school student in the 1940s & 50s only covered up to 1939.

My German history textbooks glossed over the 1930s and 40s.  Must not have been a very exciting time

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17 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I have a close friend who was directly involved with the work regarding the oil discovery and now, delivery. He's down there all the time. They were briefed, along with the Guyana government brass, by US & UK state officials a month ago on the latest thinking regarding what Venezuela will and won't do. At that time, the whole thing was viewed as a nothingburger with Maduro saber-rattling to drum up support ahead of an election. It was emphasized by US & UK officials and attending non-officials to the corporate and governmental brass that the US & UK had zero interest in seeing Venezuela make any attempt on Guyana land. 

China's also really involved on the natural resources side, so I doubt they're super-excited if Venezuela does something. 

Anyway, a lot of you guys dork out way, way hard on international diplomacy and warfare, so I'm sure there are flaws in what I'm saying that will be exposed, but it's the best I've got from half-listening to an O&G buddy bore me for 30 minutes over a manhattan while our wives gabbed before being seated at Hamsa in Houston some weeks ago. I'd be kind of stunned if Maduro actually went through with something.

I think you and I must have the same friends in Ultra Deep Water drilling and/or XOM. Basically, and I said this on the Venezuela thread:

From what I’ve read and heart it's all about Maduro keeping his job.

America has agreed to loosen sanctions if Venezuela engages in free elections and they desperately need the money. Sanctions work (well, when you don’t have India propping up Russia).

The opposition has been polling and doing well in local elections and Maduro knows that if free elections come to pass, he’s gone. But he can’t outright say he doesn’t want them because that’s malpractice as the country needs the sanctions loosened.

So this is a manufactured way to take emergency powers and postpone or cancel elections in the “interest of the wellbeing of Venezuela” and a distraction.

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8 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


It's almost exactly 1/3 as big as Texas.

image.png.07c3d50619e237bb58efa380ff08d8f4.png

 

To give context for how much Maduro is trying to take from Guyana-- which as Brisket mentioned, is functionally all of it.

It feels like we are increasingly back to the Might is Right phase and trend of geopolitics.

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8 minutes ago, Smax said:

 

Ukraine says HI!

I guess. I mean, Ukraine is ultimately going to lose and tons of money and lives will be wasted, but yes they are fighting the good fight and being a good proxy for the West.

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1 hour ago, BeardIP said:

I guess. I mean, Ukraine is ultimately going to lose and tons of money and lives will be wasted, but yes they are fighting the good fight and being a good proxy for the West.

Why do you think that? I don't see Russia taking over Ukraine. I see them fighting until Putin dies. But Russia won't take be successful in their stated goals.

Or the Russian army could collapse. This goes up if Putin dies. Please read some Eastern Front WW1 history to see how fast that can happen.

Now back to Guyana.

Full scale attack- They could not hold off Venezuela, except there is one caveat. Maduro cannot send his entire military on the attack. He needs them at home and to watch Colombia. So say he sends 20%. That is between 20,000 and 30,000 ground troops. Guyana can mobilize between 4-5K. What is needed now is a training program and the supply of light weapons. These do not have to be US or UK. They could be Brazilian, Argentine, or even South Korean. Establish the capacity for Guyana to conduct an insurgency and delaying actions.

Hybrid- Venezuela with external help (Cuba, Russia (mercenaries) undermine the government of Guyana. Start hitting the mining and O/G sector with sabotage. Spread out the small military and make them paranoid.

There has been a push within the OAS to have sanctions reduced. If Maduro attacks this is off the table. This is what I think it is about. Maybe he asks for a "cut" of the profits from the O/G finds claiming that it is territory Venezuela claims. And he needs the hard currency.

Edited by InkaUtexas
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1 hour ago, BeardIP said:

I guess. I mean, Ukraine is ultimately going to lose and tons of money and lives will be wasted, but yes they are fighting the good fight and being a good proxy for the West.

Wouldn't the same happen in Guyana? 

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1 hour ago, Viper said:

Wouldn't the same happen in Guyana? 

I would think not-- I would think we would be a lot more involved just based on XOM and the UDW interests (which are huge).

I haven't read anything current-- the international stuff I get in my inbox has all been Munich Security Council focused from last week and then US vetoing Algeria's anti-Israel resolution in the UN-- but I'm sure @Brian Fantanaknows next to nothing about the topics he opines on, per usual.

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26 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I’ve been listening to a lot of Joe Rogan as well, and I think his takes on this situation have been pretty informed and reasonable.  As we all know, ultimately the outcome is going to be determined by three items:

1. Which army has been vaxxed, and therefore weakened, more?  Does either country have low-t clinics to offset those effects, or at least do they know a guy with a hookup?

2. How adept at Muay Thai or Jiu-Jitsu is the Guyana civilian population?   If most of the Guyana women and children spar at a dojo a few times a week, then they could probably defeat the Venezuelan military in an invasion scenario even if they are outgunned.  But if they only train in boxing, Judo or Tae Kwon Do, I’d have to favor the army with guns in that matchup.

3.  Who does the Illuminati REALLY want to win?  

This is solid

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31 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I’ve been listening to a lot of Joe Rogan as well, and I think his takes on this situation have been pretty informed and reasonable.  As we all know, ultimately the outcome is going to be determined by three items:

1. Which army has been vaxxed, and therefore weakened, more?  Does either country have low-t clinics to offset those effects, or at least do they know a guy with a hookup?

2. How adept at Muay Thai or Jiu-Jitsu is the Guyana civilian population?   If most of the Guyana women and children spar at a dojo a few times a week, then they could probably defeat the Venezuelan military in an invasion scenario even if they are outgunned.  But if they only train in boxing, Judo or Tae Kwon Do, I’d have to favor the army with guns in that matchup.

3.  Who does the Illuminati REALLY want to win?  

Clapping Applause GIF

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From my recon (glancing at a map while on the shitter) it doesn't look like road maintenance is a huge item in the Guyanese budget, or that there are enough towns and farms for an invader to live off the land. So how are a mob of Venezoluchos even supposed to move or eat, especially once all the unknown spiders and insects and trained monkeys with poison dart blowguns start swarming?

I predict they grab a couple of oil wells walking distance from their own border, then it stalls out.

And for the umpteenth time, it's sad-funny when military juntas try to grab land because Spain once claimed it. Bitch you ain't part of Spain.

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3 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

From my recon (glancing at a map while on the shitter) it doesn't look like road maintenance is a huge item in the Guyanese budget, or that there are enough towns and farms for an invader to live off the land. So how are a mob of Venezoluchos even supposed to move or eat, especially once all the unknown spiders and insects and trained monkeys with poison dart blowguns start swarming?

I predict they grab a couple of oil wells walking distance from their own border, then it stalls out.

And for the umpteenth time, it's sad-funny when military juntas try to grab land because Spain once claimed it. Bitch you ain't part of Spain.

Exactly. It is guerilla territory. Venezuela has never fought against one of those. I like the trained monkey ideas. get them to infiltrate Caracas and fuck up baseball games. That will cause some havoc.

I predict they talk a big game and try and destabilize from inside. Fund and opposition group, homegrown type of disturbance. Cheap and every country has an opposition. Some Guyanese lawyer/doctor attended school at the Che Guevara College of Development and Political Thought.

Fortunately there are not that many border issues that could become a conflict in Latin America. One that is overlooked is Belize/Guatemala. Another is the ongoing BS between Peru and Ecuador. Yeah, they fought a war in the 1990's and display their borders different, but neither country can really afford a real war.

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1 minute ago, Sandman said:

I thought Venezuela was all starving snd shit. How can they hope to invade anyone without keeling over from hunger?

Give zero fucks. Maduro is not losing an election no matter how bad shit gets. Want food? vote this way.

And yeah, they are hurting, which is why he really needs hard currency since that bus driver has a fucked economy.

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1 hour ago, longhornmatt said:

I’ve been listening to a lot of Joe Rogan as well, and I think his takes on this situation have been pretty informed and reasonable.

 

Well... my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle.

Edit: goddammit, you got me, and got me good

Edited by Rimbo
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1 hour ago, longhornmatt said:

I’ve been listening to a lot of Joe Rogan as well, and I think his takes on this situation have been pretty informed and reasonable.  As we all know, ultimately the outcome is going to be determined by three items:

1. Which army has been vaxxed, and therefore weakened, more?  Does either country have low-t clinics to offset those effects, or at least do they know a guy with a hookup?

2. How adept at Muay Thai or Jiu-Jitsu is the Guyana civilian population?   If most of the Guyana women and children spar at a dojo a few times a week, then they could probably defeat the Venezuelan military in an invasion scenario even if they are outgunned.  But if they only train in boxing, Judo or Tae Kwon Do, I’d have to favor the army with guns in that matchup.

3.  Who does the Illuminati REALLY want to win?  

We could air drop some Alpha Brain and tilt the balance of power to the highest bidder!! 

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29 minutes ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

image.png.3b3c9cf6009dccb5edc4da5959a74a7f.png

 

I love that dark mode gives away all of you fuckers who have to use Google to spell words correctly.

I copied and pasted it. Some of us are working and need to save time, Pal!!!

 

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30 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Man, I thought this thread was morphing into a "hot Venezolanas" thing.  

Now we're back to poo flinging guerrilla monkeys?  

I haz disappoint.

It could be. Lead by example. stop flinging poo.

es-weather-composite-3-way1.webp.d7c02c2706b071583e876baaa6590681.webp

Edited by InkaUtexas
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US reinstates Venezuela oil sanctions.
The White House has announced it’s letting a Venezuela oil sanctions relief package expire, due to the Maduro regime’s lack of progress towards free and fair elections. Maduro committed last year to letting opposition figures run against him, but authorities went on to disqualify the leading candidate. The election is scheduled for Sunday July 28.

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17 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

US reinstates Venezuela oil sanctions.
The White House has announced it’s letting a Venezuela oil sanctions relief package expire, due to the Maduro regime’s lack of progress towards free and fair elections. Maduro committed last year to letting opposition figures run against him, but authorities went on to disqualify the leading candidate. The election is scheduled for Sunday July 28.

The US just loves tripping all over their own dick. Not like Saudi Arabia has any elections at all. Who the fuck are we to dictate how other nations rule themselves? I don't give a single flying fuck. Hypocritical dumbfucks all around. 

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