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uh, wow. Derek Ryan is the former research director of Texas GOP and consultant who worked for Perry and KBH. 

 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova

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  • Hank Scorpio
    Hank Scorpio

    I'm sorry, look at all these old fucking goblins at this thing:  Let's go one by one:  Beatrice She has not missed a single city council meeting or church bingo in 35 years. S

  • Born to Run
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    I’ve heard this bullshit my entire life, hell I used to believe the myth that Republicans were all about “faith in the common man succeeding when unimpeded by the govt.” Left alone business and humani

  • austingirl
    austingirl

    I do volunteer work for Beto's campaign (surprise!). I get called a "libtard" on a regular basis and get a lot of responses that are just "#MAGA!" and the like, but I also hear a lot of "who is Beto?"

Can't we all just admit no one knows wtf is going to happen?  Current polling methods are completely outdated.

8.2 million would be ridiculous (that's his projection).  the NYT/Siena poll had a Beto +3 at 7.3 million.

16 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I can't imagine my church hosting a rally for a political candidate. Gross. 

 

12 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I can't imagine my church hosting a rally for a political candidate. Gross. 

This.

Our congregation doesn't even have an American flag in the sanctuary except for one single day of the year (scouting sunday, when the Boy Scout troop associated with the congregation participates in the service and comes in with their colors).  Theologically, that's 100% sound to me.

Hell, I remember the Sunday after 9/11, no flags, no patriotic tunes, none of the trappings of America.  Just a sermon.  And real-deal hymns.  I was pretty raw, when I complained about it to my wife, she said "well, the church's allegiance is to God and all his people, not the flag or a country."  And it resonated like hell with me.

8.2M total votes would be massive. 

We need this planned youth walkout tomorrow to be big in Texas. 

 

 

Edited by Bruh Man

was just coming to post that turnout projection.  from the head of the Trib

 

7 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

uh, wow. Derek Ryan is the former research director of Texas GOP and consultant who worked for Perry and KBH. 

 

giphy.gif

The wait on Friday afternoon in TX22 was longer than on election day in 2016.

Might have to attend this.

 

 

1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 

Steve seems on top of things.

 

Yes Steve, going to be 12 million midterm votes out of 15.6 million registered Texans.

Also 8.2 million would be about 52.5% of registered voters in Texas.  That would make me cry, I'd be so thrilled.

1 minute ago, Fozzz said:

Might have to attend this.

 

 

Ahh Michael Berry, the genius marketer and salesman redneck who loves gay bars too. 

2 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

Might have to attend this.

 

 

Gotta appeal to the aggy, errrr, I mean base.

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Yes Steve, going to be 12 million midterm votes out of 15.6 million registered Texans.

Also 8.2 million would be about 52.5% of registered voters in Texas.  That would make me cry, I'd be so thrilled.

8.2 Million would give Ted a fear boner. 

Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

8.2 Million would give Ted a fear boner. 

Do you even red wave bro?

That Derek Ryan bro says that he's relying on the same early vote/election day split as in 2016, which seems like a poor assumption. 

17 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

 

Holy shit that's good. Would love to send that to the parents, but they'd never speak to me again.

We had 5.8M in early votes. Looks like he's just looking at using the same ratio of Election Day to Early Votes as happened in 2016.

In 2016 in the Top 15 counties about 71.7% of votes were early in-person votes. If you use the same percentage for 2018 you end up with over 8.1M total votes. I honestly don't see that happening as I view the 2018 midterms as a battle of more motivated voters, which means we will lose some of the "oh yeah the election is today" voters that we get in Presidential election years.

I'm not an expert or anything but I think we'll have a total of 7.5-7.75M votes at the end of tomorrow.

 

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

We had 5.8M in early votes. Looks like he's just looking at using the same ratio of Election Day to Early Votes as happened in 2016.

In 2016 in the Top 15 counties about 71.7% of votes were early in-person votes. If you use the same percentage for 2018 you end up with over 8.1M total votes. I honestly don't see that happening as I view the 2018 midterms as a battle of more motivated voters, which means we will lose some of the "oh yeah the election is today" voters that we get in Presidential election years.

I'm not an expert or anything but I think we'll have a total of 7.5-7.75M votes at the end of tomorrow.

 

Agree.  That's what it looks like to me too.  Everyone's favorite word on EV this year is "cannibalizing."  He's not taking that into account at all.

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

We had 5.8M in early votes. Looks like he's just looking at using the same ratio of Election Day to Early Votes as happened in 2016.

In 2016 in the Top 15 counties about 71.7% of votes were early in-person votes. If you use the same percentage for 2018 you end up with over 8.1M total votes. I honestly don't see that happening as I view the 2018 midterms as a battle of more motivated voters, which means we will lose some of the "oh yeah the election is today" voters that we get in Presidential election years.

I'm not an expert or anything but I think we'll have a total of 7.5-7.75M votes at the end of tomorrow.

 

Idk man, if anything I see this year's election as even more energized and motivated than in 2016. There's no third party to steal votes and the dems aren't running a pantsuit as a candidate so the voters broadly actually like the candidate. I could see 8.2M votes easily. Literally everyone I know has voted so far, including folks who abstained in 2016. I really hope 8.2MM is an underestimate. 

9 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

8.2 Million would give Ted a fear boner. 

HeidiCruzKiss-300x200.jpg

 

7 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

That Derek Ryan bro says that he's relying on the same early vote/election day split as in 2016, which seems like a poor assumption. 

 

Yeah, I don't see that happening. Everyone I know on both sides of the aisle except for my brother has early voted and I suspect that's not unique to my social circle.

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

We had 5.8M in early votes. Looks like he's just looking at using the same ratio of Election Day to Early Votes as happened in 2016.

In 2016 in the Top 15 counties about 71.7% of votes were early in-person votes. If you use the same percentage for 2018 you end up with over 8.1M total votes. I honestly don't see that happening as I view the 2018 midterms as a battle of more motivated voters, which means we will lose some of the "oh yeah the election is today" voters that we get in Presidential election years.

I'm not an expert or anything but I think we'll have a total of 7.5-7.75M votes at the end of tomorrow.

 

I agree with all this, but I think the number is closer to 7.3 than 7.5.  

 

9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

That couldn’t be good for Cruz

Eh, not so fast my friend. In general, higher turnout helps Dems, but we have to recognize that higher turnout in the few populous red Texas counties will heavily benefit Cruz. My thesis on this race is that in a high turnout scenario, O'Rourke's chances hinge on whether he can outperform "generic dem" in Collin, Denton, Tarrant,  Wilco, Lubbock, McClennan, Brazoria, etc. 

We'll see.  I think there will be more cannibalization than they seem to be assuming, and the total vote will be less than 8M.  

Previous cycles:

 

 

Edited by Fozzz

Just now, thepop said:

 

No.  The likelihood that a particular voter will use early voting has increased every year since its inception.  Seems especially dumb in a year where voter enthusiasm is off the charts and people were begging to get to the polls.

23 minutes ago, theaveragejon said:

Ahh Michael Berry, the genius marketer and salesman redneck who loves gay bars too. 

Well actually a transgender bar but tomato, tomatoh

Edited by Mack Tripper

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I agree with all this, but I think the number is closer to 7.3 than 7.5.  

 

Eh, not so fast my friend. In general, higher turnout helps Dems, but we have to recognize that higher turnout in the few populous red Texas counties will heavily benefit Cruz. My thesis on this race is that in a high turnout scenario, O'Rourke's chances hinge on whether he can outperform "generic dem" in Collin, Denton, Tarrant,  Wilco, Lubbock, McClennan, Brazoria, etc. 

Yeah, I think I'd probably go 7.3-7.5M instead of my earlier range. As mentioned above, percentage of voters voting early has been on a steady incline, which is just one more thing to add to the list of reasons why 8.2M is too high.

On the other hand there is supposed to be pretty good weather overall statewide tomorrow.

42 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

8.2M total votes would be massive. 

We need this planned youth walkout tomorrow to be big in Texas. 

 

 

This is where social media can be a force for good.  

My recollection is that in 2016 the election day turnout in Texas was strongly Republican, so a somewhat weaker number with 7.5m total should be good for Democrats.

 

18 minutes ago, shnsajax said:

HeidiCruzKiss-300x200.jpg

 

God, these two are straight out of central casting when it comes to being fake, plastic, power-hungry politicians. The rest of the country will be dumbfounded if we give them another 6 years.

47 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

8.2 Million would give Ted a fear boner. 

DJf5op_UQAEFm_3.jpg

2 hours ago, Bruh Man said:
 

 

Sweet setup, Republican dudes. Is Petra playing later?

2 hours ago, Post Oak said:

This is the one thing I can't square with the polls.  

they're happy to vote for him, but they're not going to turn out to see him. they don't care THAT much

1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

 

Steve seems on top of things.

 

Come on, Steve.

18 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

they're happy to vote for him, but they're not going to turn out to see him. they don't care THAT much

I think this is part of it.  They are programmed to vote R from birth no matter what, so they don't pay attention.  They just go into that booth every 2 years, hit the R button, and move on.

A big cardboard R with a cartoon elephant would draw the same "crowd"

20 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

FWIW- I never thought Beto answered that question the right way. His answer should have been:

“No offense, ma’am, but how NFL players act on the sidelines doesn’t keep you safe, lower your taxes or get better wages for working people. It’s something politicians want you to worry about so you won’t hold them accountable.
I stand, and I’m running for the Senate, not NFL commissioner.”

You don't go viral with that answer.  

16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I think this is part of it.  They are programmed to vote R from birth no matter what, so they don't pay attention.  They just go into that booth every 2 years, hit the R button, and move on.

Yeah, I was pretty much one of those dumbasses for a long, long time. It's a shame. Mostly born of ignorance, intellectual laziness, religious, family and community influence and a lot of status quo thinking. Glad I've moved on from it.

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