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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

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My guess there is.  And I found it very interesting that Egypt has done a 180 on helping Russia.
Not helped that Egypt just lost some irreplaceable Mig-29s this past week and even though it's a small number, Russia ain't going to be helping with replacements for them anytime in the next decade or two. Egypt's largest number of aircraft types is 200+ F-16s, so if they go shopping for replacements, I'm guessing they'll look at those.
US defense industry is looking at all of 2023 as
200.gif

Which is why I think the whole thing with Egypt was just a negotiation tactic on their part. They want some love - or money.
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4 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Which is why I think the whole thing with Egypt was just a negotiation tactic on their part. They want some love - or money.

Unfortunately, a lot of countries can probably take advantage of the situation in Ukraine to get on our good side, even with just a hint of helping the Russians.

On the other hand, Russia's influence is diminishing rapidly, and their military hardware is turning out to be shit in a lot of cases, or the Western stuff is turning out to be so much better.

And Russia's defense industry won't recover and be able to provide masses of hardware for export for a helluva long time, so they can buy from us, the South Koreans, Swedes, Chinese, French, and a few others.  But the Europeans are busy supplying Ukraine, and Chinese stuff that is based on Russian stuff may not be what they want.

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Professor Bart Ehrman speaks with Ukrainian theologian Mikhail Abakumov, in exile in Poland and involved with humanitarian efforts dealing with other refugees, about how the book of Revelation is interpreted by conservative Ukrainian Christians, who believe that "the prophecies are now being fulfilled." That, of course, has long been the view of American evangelicals and fundamentalists, but standard Ukrainian understandings of what the "signs" are and where they are leading to (and America's role in the coming End) are radically different from what anyone would expect over here. This is fascinating material, coming from someone deeply affected by the Russian invasion and intimately familiar with the religious response of the Ukrainian church.

https://youtu.be/rdmXgEM5rgk

 

 

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12 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:


Which is why I think the whole thing with Egypt was just a negotiation tactic on their part. They want some love - or money.

Egypt is the third largest recipient of American military aid in the world. I imagine we might've pressed on them in that regard when we found out they were considering providing artillery ammunition to Russia.

Edited by KYHorn
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1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

Egypt is the third largest recipient of American aid in the world. I imagine we might've pressed on them in that regard when we found out they were considering providing artillery ammunition to Russia.

Yeah. They've still got 30-40 Mig-29s, wonder if they would donate them to Ukraine, and we ship/sell some F-16s to them at a discount, since anybody still flying Russian fighters at this point is probably not going to be getting much in the way of spare parts in the future.

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32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Florida (and Missouri) man fucking around, finding out.

And we take you to Hungary...the Florida or Missouri of Europe.

Excuse Me Wow GIF by Mashable

 

The text to that map translated:

image.png.1420370fa593c91ce9dd0f783cc5d9a8.png

 

How do we achieve peace and security for Hungary you might ask? A "greater" Hungary with a little Lebensraum.

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47 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i hope all these different weapon systems from all these different sources don't cause logistics issues.

They don't seem to have so far, and there are some shared components here and there.  The M109 (self-propelled howitzer the US makes/uses/exports) shares a chassis/engine/tracks with the Bradley for instance, so they've got some people with that experience that can maintain the Bradleys now. And thankfully Ukraine is full of diesel mechanics thanks to the agriculture.

But they can also rig stuff up - they were using a third-party tablet with third-party software in their Migs, with a wire running out to a pylon to help launch the American HARM missiles.

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 News seems awfully scarce right now. Either OPSEC is on overdrive or the Russians have stalled to the point that nothing is happening and the lines are now fully static.

I do find it interesting how often we now see info about hopping the Dniper on boats and how it is now a legitimate concern for the Russian troops. 
 

Since the planned offensive is narrowed down to most likely in one of two key areas, anyone have any interesting ideas of diversions or proving targets that make sense that would cause chaos during the early part of the spring planned offensive?

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5 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

 News seems awfully scarce right now. Either OPSEC is on overdrive or the Russians have stalled to the point that nothing is happening and the lines are now fully static.

I do find it interesting how often we now see info about hopping the Dniper on boats and how it is now a legitimate concern for the Russian troops. 
 

Since the planned offensive is narrowed down to most likely in one of two key areas, anyone have any interesting ideas of diversions or proving targets that make sense that would cause chaos during the early part of the spring planned offensive?

Yeah, every time I open this thread I cross my fingers and hope to find out news that the offense is underway.

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15 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

 News seems awfully scarce right now. Either OPSEC is on overdrive or the Russians have stalled to the point that nothing is happening and the lines are now fully static.

I do find it interesting how often we now see info about hopping the Dniper on boats and how it is now a legitimate concern for the Russian troops. 
 

Since the planned offensive is narrowed down to most likely in one of two key areas, anyone have any interesting ideas of diversions or proving targets that make sense that would cause chaos during the early part of the spring planned offensive?

I'm guessing we are still 2 to 3 weeks from the full fledged counter offensive. Weather in Zaporizhia is expected to be wet and/or overcast for next week or so. Until then this is going to be the longest halftime show ever. It's been painfully obvious that UA wasn't going to make any big moves until spring.

As for the counter offensive targets...I'm still guessing that the push south has the highest probability. Crimea is the crown jewel for Putin and any threat to that part of his legacy will have major ramifications. Not sure of the exact path but alot of speculation is that UA would target Tokmak since it's the end part of the rail line from mainland Russia into the region. Take Tokmak, surround Melitopol, push hard along the eastern part of the Dniepro, rebuild some bridging to shorten UA's logistic tail from Kherson, and push down to the Crimean peninsula. At that point you have Melitopol and Crimea almost on complete lock down (1 Kerch bridge kaboom away from a total siege).

At that point not sure how hard it wants to engage in urban combat in Melitopol and/or make that jump into Crimea proper. Getting stuck in the Perekop isthmus could be a real bottleneck if RU dedicates artillery and aerial assets to the area and making it a killzone. So I'm guessing that UA may try to siege out those areas, wear down material and morale before going full bore in those areas.

If Putin is seeing the rest of his land grab slipping away thru Q3 then I think he's in a maximum shit sandwich. Economic numbers will start looming large and has to be aware of the consequences if that runs into 2024. It's estimated that they have already blown thru 80% of their budgeted 2023 expenditures just thru Q1. One of Putin's purported strategic advantages has been counting on the miserability of his people being able to keep eating this shit sandwich than the West. If they are on their heels going into Q3 then I think there will be a lot more cracks showing.

Here's to hoping that UA takes the ball and goes on a 9-play 80-yard TD drive with a methodical dissection of the Russian defense to start this 2nd half.

 

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2 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Yeah, every time I open this thread I cross my fingers and hope to find out news that the offense is underway.

I'd hope that by the time we find out about it, we've been several days into it.

2 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Wow.  Putin as Qaddafi was not an image I was expecting there.  

How does putin feel about Condi Rice?

 

(and he can't have her; i got dibs)

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3 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

I'd hope that by the time we find out about it, we've been several days into it.

That's kinda what I was getting at. I keep hoping the reason that news is slow is because opsec and Ukrain has already made some major objective. But we would be hearing stuff from the Russian side if it were already underway. More likely they are trying to keep their cards close before they begin.

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5 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i hope all these different weapon systems from all these different sources don't cause logistics issues.

The guy in that video was shooting an AR type while his buddy on the right was using an AK derivative from what I could tell from the quick back and forth of the camera.   He kept calling for "Norman" magazines as well.  I am not that familiar with the weapons to know their exact make/model or caliber (.556 or .308 for the AR type?)

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3 minutes ago, Nivek said:

The guy in that video was shooting an AR type while his buddy on the right was using an AK derivative from what I could tell from the quick back and forth of the camera.   He kept calling for "Norman" magazines as well.  I am not that familiar with the weapons to know their exact make/model or caliber (.556 or .308 for the AR type?)

They'll always have some AK types so long as Russians keep dying a few yards from their positions.

ARs are 5.56mm

Edited by RDCanecutter
Decimal point, you win again.
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1 hour ago, vtaenz said:

Starting to see some reports of Ukrainian attacks on the southern front, probably not the counter offensive everyone is expecting, possibly probing attacks, maybe a trial run of what's coming in a few weeks.

Yeah, feels like when it happens, they'll be hitting rear areas hard and cutting off logistics (road/rail) with lots of HIMARS.

It's extremely telling that the Russians can't do shit to stop this - right now they need to open up some kind of offensive and force the Ukrainians to react/respond to them and try to keep the Ukrainians from being able to build up some large groups, but nope, they are just pissing away lives and equipment over a few blocks here and there in Bakhmut.

It also seems awfully quiet on Russia's missile front - they've gotten in some sporadic hits here and there, but either they finally ran as low as the analysts were predicting, or they are actually saving them and plan on using them against *gasp* the Ukrainian forces when they launch their counter-offensive.   I know, that's weird, Russia using their cruise missiles, etc., to actually benefit their troops instead of hitting apartment buildings, schools, and hospitals, deep inside of Ukraine, but it's possible - stranger things have happened in this war.

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5 hours ago, vtaenz said:

Starting to see some reports of Ukrainian attacks on the southern front, probably not the counter offensive everyone is expecting, possibly probing attacks, maybe a trial run of what's coming in a few weeks.

 

 

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