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Good use of media as usual. The ISW folks said that Russian soldiers are extremely worried about the upcoming offensive. Videos like this, and others we've seen, can help instill further fear

 

Edited by KYHorn
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26 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Good use of media as usual. The ISW folks said that Russian soldiers are extremely worried about the upcoming offensive. Videos like this, and others we've seen, can help instill further fear

They look like a Western army that's well-equipped.

Most of the Russian videos we've seen lately...somewhere between something out of WWII and 1980s Afghanistan.

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3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I want to know more about this shit-stain’s parents and his upbringing.

Did he start out worthless after lots of training - or did he become worthless on his own?

 

It's pretty easy to find.

https://nypost.com/2023/04/14/who-are-arrested-air-national-guardsman-jack-teixeiras-parents/

Spoiler

Who are arrested Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeira’s parents?

April 14, 2023 11:54am 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0 of 40 secondsVolume 0%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Jack Teixeira, the 21-year-old Air National Guardsman who was arrested Thursday over the leak of classified US intelligence documents, hails from a patriotic family with a history of military service.

Teixeira, who was taken into custody at his mother’s home in North Dighton, Mass., followed his stepfather into the Air National Guard’s 102nd Intelligence Wing.

His mother has dedicated herself to a slew of nonprofit organizations serving veterans over the years.

For Teixeira’s family, his shocking arrest for allegedly leaking highly sensitive intelligence records online appears to clash with their decades of military service and patriotic zeal.

Here’s what we know so far about the Guardsman’s parents and family:

Who are Jack Teixeira’s parents?

Teixeira’s mom, Dawn Dufault, and his stepdad, Thomas Dufault, live in the single-family home in North Dighton, east of Providence, RI, where the the Guardsman was nabbed by federal agents.

It wasn’t immediately clear how long Dawn and Thomas have been married.

Dawn and Thomas Dufault Jack Teixeira’s mom, Dawn Dufault (center), and stepdad, Thomas Dufault (right), have a history of military ties. Department of Defense/Staff Sgt. Thomas Swanson Jack Teixeira Teixeira, who was taken into custody at his home in North Dighton, Mass., on Thursday, followed his stepfather, Thomas Dufault, into the military. via REUTERS

Thomas Dufault retired from the military in April 2019 after 34 years of service, including a stint as master sergeant in the same 102nd Intelligence Wing that his stepson ended up joining months later. Dufault was pictured snapping off a salute at a retirement ceremony at Joint Base Cape Cod, where Teixeira was also stationed.

Teixeira’s stepdad also has pilot, mechanic and real estate licenses, according to online records.

Here's what we know about Jack Teixeira and the leaked docs

Who is Teixeira?

A 21-year-old Massachusetts Air National Guardsman, an enlisted member of the 102nd Intelligence Wing located at Joint Base Cape Cod.

Why was he arrested?

The arrest came after Teixeira was identified as a person of interest in the case, which was opened last week when some of the shared documents were discovered on Russian Telegram channels.

Reports indicate Teixeira was a prominent figure in the “Thug Shakers Central” Discord group, where the documents initially appeared.

What information is in the leaked documents?

The classified documents from the Department of Defense contained key information about America’s espionage efforts against Russia, as well as details about Ukraine’s military planning.

How were the documents leaked?

The classified pages were disseminated on the small Discord channel Thug Shaker Central, linked to fans of the YouTuber Oxide.

Learn more about the leaks and the channel Thug Shaker Central 

Teixeira’s mom, Dawn, has long supported veteran-oriented nonprofit organizations, including the Massachusetts Military Heroes Fund and Home for Our Troops. She also briefly worked for the Massachusetts Department of Veterans Services between 2014 and 2015, according to her LinkedIn profile.

Since 2017, Dawn has been running a florist business — Bayberry Farm & Flower Company — out of the home where Teixeira was picked up Thursday.

A Veteran's Day Facebook post by Jack's mom Teixeira’s mom, Dawn, has posted Veterans Day tributes for her son, husband, stepson and father-in-law on her flower shop’s Facebook page.

Dawn regularly took to her flower shop’s Facebook page to praise her son’s achievements and post photos of her military family members on Veterans Day.

“Jack is on his way home today, tech school complete, ready to start his career in the Air National Guard!” she wrote alongside a photo of a welcome-home balloon on June 3, 2021.

What do we know about Jack’s biological father?

Little is known about Jack Michael Teixeira — the Guardsman’s biological dad.

He is believed to have separated from his ex-wife when their son was younger, but it wasn’t immediately clear when.

The elder Teixeira still lives in the same town as his ex-wife, according to online records.

A welcome home balloon Jack's mom posted for him Dawn also regularly takes to her flower shop’s Facebook page to praise her son’s achievements.

Have Teixeira’s parents said anything about his arrest?

Teixeira’s parents haven’t commented publicly since the 21-year-old was hauled away in handcuffs from the family home.

In the hours before her son was publicly identified as a suspect by the feds, Dawn spoke to a New York Times reporter outside her home to confirm that Teixeira was a member of the Air National Guard.

She only said that he had been recently working overnight shifts at the Cape Cod base and had changed his phone number in the last few days.

After Teixeira was spotted arriving at the home and heading inside, an unidentified man standing outside the home told reporters that the Guardsman would need to lawyer up.

Thomas Dufault Teixeira’s stepfather, Thomas (right), retired from the military after 34 years of service. His ceremony was held at Cape Cod in 2019. Department of Defense/Staff Sgt. Thomas Swanson Teixeira being arrested His parents haven’t commented publicly since he was spotted being hauled away from their family home by federal investigators on Thursday afternoon. via REUTERS

“He needs to get an attorney if things are flowing the way they are going right now. The feds will be around soon, I’m sure,” the man said.

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Does Jack Teixeira have any siblings?

It is unclear exactly how many siblings Teixeira has, but it appears he has at least two half-brothers or stepbrothers, according to online records.

The New York Times reported Teixeira also has a sister who would post photos of him on Facebook each year for his birthday.

Dad was a veteran. Not much known about him. Separated when the son was young. Still lives in the same town.

Mom runs a floral shop out of their home. Does a lot of volunteer work for veterans organizations.

The key one is the step dad. Retired after 34 years out of the same 102nd intelligence group the son was active in. 

I'm sure part of the issue with discovering this stuff was the vector. Counter intelligence is trained to look for giving the information to the enemy, not for bragging purposes on a small Discord server, and then having the teens on that server spread the docs to win various arguments on other Discord servers. 

A lonely kid with a messed up perspective who wanted to be a big shot in some way, with no understanding of what the consequences are for not being able to keep a secret. I'm sure he was confident in his own way that the documents he was sharing were going to stay within his small Discord group, but that's not how it works. Not trying to defend him. I hope they throw the book at him.

I'm in full agreement it's fortunate the Russians didn't find out about this, nip it in the bud in some way, then use it to blackmail the kid into sharing more information. 

It's crazy to me that an E-3 had access to so much material, but I'm sure being the stepson of a 34 year air force veteran who had recently retired from that same unit played a huge role. 

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8 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Good use of media as usual. The ISW folks said that Russian soldiers are extremely worried about the upcoming offensive. Videos like this, and others we've seen, can help instill further fear

 

Twitter's recent change makes longer tweets less obvious and accessible on Surly, so some of you might've missed the full text of this tweet:

This will be a case study in international relations for years to come. 

 

A few days ago, US Treasury sanctioned a Russian-controlled bank (@IIB_Press) that Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán personally invited to relocate to Budapest. Subsequently, news broke about a possible next round of US sanctions - now directly targeting Orbán's circles. 

 

Orbán's reaction? First, after spending years of defending it, he immediately threw the Russian-led bank under the bus. Then, after months of increasingly anti-American rhetorics, he suddenly realised that Hungary and the US are strong allies and share the same fundamental beliefs! 

 

Well, this is a good reminder of the power of US sanctions, the dominance of US dollar in international finance - and how carrots and sticks work in diplomacy.

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12 hours ago, 686 said:

Another protest video from a mobik saying he/they are tired of this front line shit when they’re supposed to be in the rear; and they’re not getting combat pay.
 

1/1 00:18 Skip Ad Continue watching after the ad Visit Advertiser websiteGO TO PAGE
 
 
 
 
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1/1 Skip Ad Continue watching after the ad Visit Advertiser websiteGO TO PAGE
 
 
 
2.png

Anybody else being served up a video ad instead of the actual tweet here?

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10 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

It's pretty easy to find.

https://nypost.com/2023/04/14/who-are-arrested-air-national-guardsman-jack-teixeiras-parents/

  Reveal hidden contents

Who are arrested Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeira’s parents?

April 14, 2023 11:54am 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0 of 40 secondsVolume 0%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Jack Teixeira, the 21-year-old Air National Guardsman who was arrested Thursday over the leak of classified US intelligence documents, hails from a patriotic family with a history of military service.

Teixeira, who was taken into custody at his mother’s home in North Dighton, Mass., followed his stepfather into the Air National Guard’s 102nd Intelligence Wing.

His mother has dedicated herself to a slew of nonprofit organizations serving veterans over the years.

For Teixeira’s family, his shocking arrest for allegedly leaking highly sensitive intelligence records online appears to clash with their decades of military service and patriotic zeal.

Here’s what we know so far about the Guardsman’s parents and family:

Who are Jack Teixeira’s parents?

Teixeira’s mom, Dawn Dufault, and his stepdad, Thomas Dufault, live in the single-family home in North Dighton, east of Providence, RI, where the the Guardsman was nabbed by federal agents.

It wasn’t immediately clear how long Dawn and Thomas have been married.

Dawn and Thomas Dufault Jack Teixeira’s mom, Dawn Dufault (center), and stepdad, Thomas Dufault (right), have a history of military ties. Department of Defense/Staff Sgt. Thomas Swanson Jack Teixeira Teixeira, who was taken into custody at his home in North Dighton, Mass., on Thursday, followed his stepfather, Thomas Dufault, into the military. via REUTERS

Thomas Dufault retired from the military in April 2019 after 34 years of service, including a stint as master sergeant in the same 102nd Intelligence Wing that his stepson ended up joining months later. Dufault was pictured snapping off a salute at a retirement ceremony at Joint Base Cape Cod, where Teixeira was also stationed.

Teixeira’s stepdad also has pilot, mechanic and real estate licenses, according to online records.

Here's what we know about Jack Teixeira and the leaked docs

Who is Teixeira?

A 21-year-old Massachusetts Air National Guardsman, an enlisted member of the 102nd Intelligence Wing located at Joint Base Cape Cod.

Why was he arrested?

The arrest came after Teixeira was identified as a person of interest in the case, which was opened last week when some of the shared documents were discovered on Russian Telegram channels.

Reports indicate Teixeira was a prominent figure in the “Thug Shakers Central” Discord group, where the documents initially appeared.

What information is in the leaked documents?

The classified documents from the Department of Defense contained key information about America’s espionage efforts against Russia, as well as details about Ukraine’s military planning.

How were the documents leaked?

The classified pages were disseminated on the small Discord channel Thug Shaker Central, linked to fans of the YouTuber Oxide.

Learn more about the leaks and the channel Thug Shaker Central 

Teixeira’s mom, Dawn, has long supported veteran-oriented nonprofit organizations, including the Massachusetts Military Heroes Fund and Home for Our Troops. She also briefly worked for the Massachusetts Department of Veterans Services between 2014 and 2015, according to her LinkedIn profile.

Since 2017, Dawn has been running a florist business — Bayberry Farm & Flower Company — out of the home where Teixeira was picked up Thursday.

A Veteran's Day Facebook post by Jack's mom Teixeira’s mom, Dawn, has posted Veterans Day tributes for her son, husband, stepson and father-in-law on her flower shop’s Facebook page.

Dawn regularly took to her flower shop’s Facebook page to praise her son’s achievements and post photos of her military family members on Veterans Day.

“Jack is on his way home today, tech school complete, ready to start his career in the Air National Guard!” she wrote alongside a photo of a welcome-home balloon on June 3, 2021.

What do we know about Jack’s biological father?

Little is known about Jack Michael Teixeira — the Guardsman’s biological dad.

He is believed to have separated from his ex-wife when their son was younger, but it wasn’t immediately clear when.

The elder Teixeira still lives in the same town as his ex-wife, according to online records.

A welcome home balloon Jack's mom posted for him Dawn also regularly takes to her flower shop’s Facebook page to praise her son’s achievements.

Have Teixeira’s parents said anything about his arrest?

Teixeira’s parents haven’t commented publicly since the 21-year-old was hauled away in handcuffs from the family home.

In the hours before her son was publicly identified as a suspect by the feds, Dawn spoke to a New York Times reporter outside her home to confirm that Teixeira was a member of the Air National Guard.

She only said that he had been recently working overnight shifts at the Cape Cod base and had changed his phone number in the last few days.

After Teixeira was spotted arriving at the home and heading inside, an unidentified man standing outside the home told reporters that the Guardsman would need to lawyer up.

Thomas Dufault Teixeira’s stepfather, Thomas (right), retired from the military after 34 years of service. His ceremony was held at Cape Cod in 2019. Department of Defense/Staff Sgt. Thomas Swanson Teixeira being arrested His parents haven’t commented publicly since he was spotted being hauled away from their family home by federal investigators on Thursday afternoon. via REUTERS

“He needs to get an attorney if things are flowing the way they are going right now. The feds will be around soon, I’m sure,” the man said.

209
What do you think? Post a comment.

Does Jack Teixeira have any siblings?

It is unclear exactly how many siblings Teixeira has, but it appears he has at least two half-brothers or stepbrothers, according to online records.

The New York Times reported Teixeira also has a sister who would post photos of him on Facebook each year for his birthday.

Dad was a veteran. Not much known about him. Separated when the son was young. Still lives in the same town.

Mom runs a floral shop out of their home. Does a lot of volunteer work for veterans organizations.

The key one is the step dad. Retired after 34 years out of the same 102nd intelligence group the son was active in. 

I'm sure part of the issue with discovering this stuff was the vector. Counter intelligence is trained to look for giving the information to the enemy, not for bragging purposes on a small Discord server, and then having the teens on that server spread the docs to win various arguments on other Discord servers. 

A lonely kid with a messed up perspective who wanted to be a big shot in some way, with no understanding of what the consequences are for not being able to keep a secret. I'm sure he was confident in his own way that the documents he was sharing were going to stay within his small Discord group, but that's not how it works. Not trying to defend him. I hope they throw the book at him.

I'm in full agreement it's fortunate the Russians didn't find out about this, nip it in the bud in some way, then use it to blackmail the kid into sharing more information. 

It's crazy to me that an E-3 had access to so much material, but I'm sure being the stepson of a 34 year air force veteran who had recently retired from that same unit played a huge role. 

Good find. Thanks for sharing. I was not aware that antisemitism and racist garbage was what you needed to be popular in some teen chat rooms.

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https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/this-is-what-bradley-fighting-vehicles-will-bring-to-the-fight-in-ukraine

This is a really good detailed article presented with both pros and cons about our use of the Bradley fighting vehicle in Ukraine, and especially a comparison of it versus the MP3.

60 Bradleys bring 360 soldiers (6 in each BFV, excluding 3 man crew) quickly (to 38 mph) to anywhere the offensive needs to go.  If 2 of those 6 have javelins - that task force should be able to wipe out any Russian armor opposing them.  The cavalry version carries a few less men but more tow missiles.  Not sure what we sent, although it looks to be modernized versions. 

Since the Russians seem to have adopted World War I tactics and trenches, I could see those bad boys, flanking the entrenched positions and the chain cannons making life in the trenches a very uncomfortable position.   Since Russia is reduced to mostly mobiks who have a little ammunition, and probably less will to fight, I’m hoping the spring offensive results in large numbers of surrendered Russians.

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17 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Good find. Thanks for sharing. I was not aware that antisemitism and racist garbage was what you needed to be popular in some teen chat rooms.

I also can’t imagine the shit his stepdad is getting from everyone he served with for 34 years.  Just a fucked up situation all around.  No winners here.

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Quote

There are 134 military pilots among KIA. These are specialists took years to prepare and millions of dollars to train.

At this point in the war the above quote probably has more to do with Russia‘s inability to secure air superiority in Ukraine than the current state of Ukrainian air defenses.  

They might be able to get more birds serviceable, but who can fly them?  

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21 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I also can’t imagine the shit his stepdad is getting from everyone he served with for 34 years.  Just a fucked up situation all around.  No winners here.

Senior Master Sergeants in the Air Force are pretty respected given their duties as a senior NCO and less than 10% that are eligible normally make it - I had an uncle who retired as a SMS, and he mentioned that any SMS is going to know a lot of people up through the general ranks and that guy has ruined his stepdad's reputation.

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11 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It’s the closest thing to time travel that we’ve seen, as they keep marching backwards towards ww1. 

Well, Russia has been trying to take Bakhmut, a city the size of San Marcos, for over 8 months now, and the whole place is surrounded by trenches. If that ain't some WWI shit, I don't know what is.

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1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Good find. Thanks for sharing. I was not aware that antisemitism and racist garbage was what you needed to be popular in some teen chat rooms.

Loved playing CoD and other games ten years ago. Even while being called names over the mic by a homophobic racist 7 year old.

I'm too slow to compete any more. 

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50 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

 

They might be able to get more birds serviceable, but who can fly them?  

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/25/despite-modernization-drive-russias-air-force-struggles-for-superiority-in-ukraine-a79158

According to the above article, there are over 7000 pilots in the Russian Air Force.  So yet again, my ignorant ass is wrong.

I also have no idea how many of those 7K pilots can fly or particular air platform with any degree of skill.   7000 pilots who know how to fly helicopters and cargo planes would not help Russia’s ability to use attack aircraft. It is universally recognized that Russian pilots get very little air time, no matter the platform. 

It is probably not too far-fetched to assume that thousands of those pilots were given Kalashnikovs and told to storm Bakhmut.   In any event, 134 dead pilots does not look to be a back breaker unless a very small number of them know how to fly SU 24 and 35 attack aircraft.   

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On 4/15/2023 at 6:35 AM, GoPokes83 said:


Polonium kills you in a few days, maybe a week or two. This guy’s been sick for months. At least that was the reasoning behind my comment

It can, but you can survive it too. Severity depends on dosage and method of administration. 

Litvenenko died after 3 weeks. The Skirpals are both still alive.

Putin frequently issues "warnings" by poisoning people that survive. 

Recently, Abramovich was reportedly poisoned at a peace conference.

“The idea behind poisoning is to intimidate and delay,” said Rebekah Koffler, a Russian-born US intelligence expert and author of “Putin’s Playbook: Russia’s Secret Plan to Defeat America,” published last year. “They don’t care if the public knows. The Russians want the target to know, and the opposing government to know, about the poisoning to instill fear and doubt. In Abramovich’s case, it’s probably Putin’s view that he went off the reservation and that his allegiance should have been exclusively to Putin.”

https://nypost.com/2022/03/31/what-its-really-like-to-be-poisoned-in-russia-and-survive/

Navalny was previously poisoned in 2020 and survived. We don't know what with.

Former Ukraine President Yushchenko opposed Putin and was poisoned with dioxin. He lived and is now disfigured. 

image.png.b0e129837056e5bcc0186992450db82d.png

There's a fair number of others. Non-lethal poisonings are definitely part of Putin's M.O. 

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18 hours ago, Armybrat said:

I have seen firsthand the elevator shaft at Leavenworth where they hanged the condemned. 
This current asshole traitor should have a date with that rope .

Or, sex slave for the Aryan Brotherhood 

Edited by nbmishoid
Splchk no handle aryan
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19 hours ago, Armybrat said:

I have seen firsthand the elevator shaft at Leavenworth where they hanged the condemned. 
This current asshole traitor should have a date with that rope .

 

56 minutes ago, nbmishoid said:

Or, sex slave for the Aryan Brotherhood 

I think there's time for both.

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NYT talking about Russian atrocities remaking NATOs mindset.  Relevant to our discussions of stuff like: why are they fighting so hard for Bahkmut?  Answer - because your countrymen will be raped and murdered if you don’t.  
 

Quote

With Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, NATO Readies for Combat on Its Borders

Shocked by Russian atrocities, NATO is becoming the war-fighting alliance it was during the Cold War, committed to defending “every inch” of its territory from Day 1.

April 17, 2023, 5:00 a.m. ET

American soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division firing artillery during an exercise at the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base, near the Black Sea port of Constanta, Romania, last month.Vadim Ghirda/Associated Press

BRUSSELS — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the costliest conflict in Europe since World War II, has propelled the North Atlantic Treaty Organization into a full-throttled effort to make itself again into the capable, war-fighting alliance it had been during the Cold War.

The shift is transformative for an alliance characterized for decades by hibernation and self-doubt. After the recent embrace of long-neutral Finland by the alliance, it also amounts to another significant unintended consequence for Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, of his war.

NATO is rapidly moving from what the military calls deterrence by retaliation to deterrence by denial. In the past, the theory was that if the Russians invaded, member states would try to hold on until allied forces, mainly American and based at home, could come to their aid and retaliate against the Russians to try to push them back.

But after the Russian atrocities in areas it occupied in Ukraine, from Bucha and Irpin to Mariupol and Kherson, frontier states like Poland and the Baltic countries no longer want to risk any period of Russian occupation. They note that in the first days of the Ukrainian invasion, Russian troops took land larger than some Baltic nations.

To prevent that, to deter by denial, means a revolution in practical terms: more troops based permanently along the Russian border, more integration of American and allied war plans, more military spending and more detailed requirements for allies to have specific kinds of forces and equipment to fight, if necessary, in pre-assigned places.

Mr. Putin has long complained about NATO encirclement and encroachment. But his invasion of Ukraine provoked the alliance to shed remaining inhibitions about increased numbers of Western troops all along NATO’s border with Russia.

The intention is to make NATO’s forces not only more robust and more capable but also more visible to Russia, a key element of deterrence.

“The debate is no longer about how much is too much,” for fear of upsetting Moscow, “but how much is enough,” said Camille Grand, until recently NATO’s assistant secretary general for defense investment, and now with the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Two MIG 29 fighter jets taking part in the NATO military exercises near an air force base in Lask, central Poland in October.Radoslaw Jozwiak/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The countries of Central and Eastern Europe insist that it is “no longer enough to say we’re ready to deter by promising to reconquer, but that we need to defend every inch of NATO territory from day one,” said Mr. Grand. “It’s not okay to be under Russian control for a few months until the cavalry arrives.”

NATO now has deployed a battalion of multinational troops to eight countries along the eastern border with Russia. It is detailing how to enlarge those forces to brigade strength in those frontline states to enhance deterrence and be able to push back invading forces from the start. And it is also tasking thousands more forces, in case of war, to move quickly in support, with newly detailed plans for mobility and logistics and stiffer requirements for readiness.

“NATO is an organization that took a holiday from history,” said Ivo H. Daalder, a former American ambassador to NATO. Mr. Putin, he said, “reminded us that we have to think about defense and think about it collectively.”

The alliance will put more troops under the direct control of NATO’s top military officer, the supreme allied commander Europe, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, who also commands American forces in Europe.

Under a new rubric of “deter and defend,” General Cavoli is for the first time since the Cold War integrating American and allied war-fighting plans, a senior NATO official said, speaking anonymously because of the topic’s sensitivity. Americans are back at the heart of Europe’s defense, he said, deciding with NATO precisely how America will defend Europe.

For first time since the Cold War, the official said, East European countries will know exactly what NATO intends to do to defend them — what each country should be able to do for itself and how other countries will be tasked to help. And Western countries in the alliance will know where their forces need to go, with what and how to get there.

NATO is also aligning its longer-term demands from allies with its current operational needs. If in the past NATO countries might be asked to send some lightly armed expeditionary forces with helicopters to Afghanistan, for instance, now they will be tasked to defend particular parts of NATO territory itself.

For Britain, just one example, that will mean that it provide more heavy armor to defend NATO’s eastern flank, even if the British government would prefer to continue to field a lighter, more expeditionary army, requiring less money, fewer people and less expensive heavy equipment.

The planning in NATO is already intrusive but will become more demanding and specific. Countries answer questionnaires about their capacities and equipment; NATO planners tell them what’s missing or could be cut or thinned.

In one case, said Robert G. Bell, defense adviser to the American mission at NATO until 2017, Denmark was told to stop wasting money building submarines. Canada was told it must provide air-refueling planes.

Countries can push back — for years some nations with frigates refused to put air-defense missiles on them for fear of seeming escalatory — but they must defend their plans before all NATO members. If the other allies all agree that a country’s plan is inadequate, they can vote to force adaptation in what is known as “consensus minus one.” Such a demand is rare, but happened with Canada, Mr. Bell said.

Now the demands will be tougher and more rigorous to bring the alliance back to a war-fighting capacity in Europe and make deterrence credible — to ensure that NATO can fight a high-intensity war against a rival, Russia, from the first day of conflict.

The change at NATO began slowly in 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea, igniting insurrection in the eastern Donbas. At their summit that year in Wales, NATO allies agreed on a goal for military spending of 2 percent of gross domestic product by 2024. At the moment, only eight of 31 countries, including new member Finland, met that goal, but military spending has increased significantly, up $350 billion since 2014.

At the next NATO summit this July, a new spending plan will be agreed, with 2 percent of G.D.P. regarded as a minimum. Given Russia’s difficulties in Ukraine, if major countries spend between 2.5 percent and 3 percent of G.D.P. on the military over the next decade, that should be sufficient, the senior NATO official said.

After 2014, NATO also agreed to put four small battalion-sized forces in the Baltic States and Poland. The idea was to engage invaders and hope to get reinforcements in place a week or two after an invasion.

After Russia’s invasion last year, NATO added four more forward-based battalions, to make eight such forces along NATO’s eastern edge, now including Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria. But the total troop number for all eight battle groups is only 10,232, NATO says.

NATO now is planning how to scale up to brigade-sized forces, meaning putting about 4,000 to 5,000 troops in each country to make NATO’s enhanced deterrence “a more robust tripwire,” Mr. Bell said.

That will also mean improving NATO’s air defenses — a major shortcoming from the shrinking militaries of the last 30 years, when few imagined Russian missiles raining down on Europe — and more numerous and elaborate troop exercises, visible to Moscow.

Previously, the annual exercises of NATO’s nuclear forces, known as Steadfast Noon, were kept quiet. But last year, after Russia’s invasion, the exercise went ahead openly. It was important, a NATO official said, to show Moscow that the alliance wasn’t deterred by nuclear threats.

NATO’s military headquarters, the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe, is also being strengthened.

The thousands of allied soldiers working there are being transformed into a major strategic and war-fighting command, charged with drawing up the alliance’s plans to integrate and deploy allied troops — including cyber, space and maritime forces — in various contingencies. Those can range from planning a hybrid war to a regional war that spirals out of control to an all-out conflict involving nuclear weapons.

The NATO command needs to figure out how to incorporate Finland and likely Sweden, and decide where their forces must commit to collective defense. For instance, should Finland be part of the headquarters that covers the Baltics or the one that covers the Arctic routes and the High North, or both?

In principle, NATO’s leadership can call on 13 corps of 40,000 to 50,000 troops each to fight if necessary. But NATO’s actual, deployable strength is nowhere near that, senior NATO officials concede. So General Cavoli and his team must figure out how best and where to deploy what is really available in a crisis, while trying to ensure that countries continue to improve their readiness.

One of the least glamorous challenges is, simply speaking, mobility and logistics: getting troops and tanks and guns where they need to be as quickly as they need to be there, and sustaining them.

Right now there are major post-Cold War roadblocks that include lack of storage, lack of suitable rail cars, lack of emergency rights of way to cross borders and use of roadways, issues that involve decisions by civilian authorities.

But even supplying Ukraine from a peaceful Poland is proving a major logistical headache, said another NATO official, who also spoke on the topic under condition of anonymity. Trucks are backed up with supplies, there’s a shortage of railway cars that can carry heavy equipment like tanks, and permissions must be obtained at every European border. Doing it in a shooting war, he said, with missiles flying, bombs dropping, the internet crashing and refugees racing in the other direction, is another challenge entirely.

“NATO didn’t think seriously about defending its own territory and now it must,” said Mr. Daalder, president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. It did that for 40 years, and even if the muscles have atrophied, the muscle memory is there, he said. “The key is to have people and governments who never lived through this, learning how to do it.”

 

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2 hours ago, Bevo said:

Don't know what you are trying to say in Portuguese but google translate says:

Squid is going to suck a cane field

Lol! It's the equivalent of "eat a bag of dicks" - "suck a canefield of dicks" in this case. Google Translate does not always do well with slang. 

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5 minutes ago, dimyh said:

More reports about the Wagner butchers. Not exactly sure why they would admit to this but ex mercs explaining orders to terminate everyone...civilians, women, teenagers, and even 5 year old girls. Just fucking brutal.

 

 

So Lula, you feckless cockmunch--explain precisely how you talk peace with that.

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12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So Lula, you feckless cockmunch--explain precisely how you talk peace with that.

I'm pretty sure Lula is taking the positions he is because Brazil's agriculture is incredibly dependent on fertilizer from Russia. Also, the Chinese are by far the main buyer of Brazilian ag commodities.

Edited by Schulz2.0
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5 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

I'm pretty sure Lula is taking the positions he is because Brazil's agriculture is incredibly dependent on fertilizer from Russia. Also, the Chinese are by far the main buyer of Brazilian ag commodities.

This.  All politics is realpolitik.  Lula has to look out for Brazil's interests.  Which are rather intertwined with Russia's.

It makes him a cockmunch, but at least a "Brazil above all others" cockmunch, which is his job.

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14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  All politics is realpolitik.  Lula has to look out for Brazil's interests.  Which are rather intertwined with Russia's.

It makes him a cockmunch, but at least a "Brazil above all others" cockmunch, which is his job.

He's also not above taking bribes.  Being better than Bolsonaro isn't a high bar to clear.

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