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justhookit

COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only (no politics)

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19 hours ago, NAVY said:

I realize it’s Sunday and everything, but Austin/Travis sub-100. Hell yeah! 
 

https://www.traviscountytx.gov/news/2020/1945-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-information

 

85B2E89A-F8E1-43E2-BB65-AB2F0B0CBF53.jpeg

Yup, Corpus went sub 100 for the first time in about a month. Only the 3rd time below 200 in 3 weeks. Curious about today and the rest of the week but we are definitely headed the right direction. Finally.

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36 minutes ago, justhookit said:

This. And I have a feeling a bunch of states will take our place by mid-August and September. Look for the next Texas spike in October.

Also in October. 
 

ou sucks 

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1 hour ago, justhookit said:

This. And I have a feeling a bunch of states will take our place by mid-August and September. Look for the next Texas spike in October.

pretty much everybody is going to spike in October.

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Nah, whoever spikes in August and September will “lock back down” and have it back under control in October. We are in the lather, rinse, repeat cycle of covid now with each state on its own timeline.

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Posted (edited)
On 7/24/2020 at 3:08 PM, Johnny Sack said:

I am not saying don't count illegals who live here.  I am saying don't count Mexican residents who just came over for treatment.  I have no idea how many are doing so.  I know it is greater than zero.  We might find out it is only a small percentage of our border county deaths.  Or it could be half of them.  I would like to know.

hildalgo county's chief admin officer for health & human services said they haven't seen an influx in people coming over on houston matters on friday.  it's the first interview on the show, question is about 10 minutes in.   the valley is bad because people haven't been masking/distancing and have had social gatherings with extended family, also it's a poor and un/underinsured area.

Edited by elfenix

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2 hours ago, justhookit said:

Nah, whoever spikes in August and September will “lock back down” and have it back under control in October. We are in the lather, rinse, repeat cycle of covid now with each state on its own timeline.

That has always been my point once TX started blowing up.  We'd have it burn through the state like it did NY/NJ in March/April then it would start trending down.  Of course I was neg bombed for the insinuation that it needed to burn through the populace at this juncture.  Thankfully TX hospitals have proven to be orders of magnitude better at managing care than the northeastern counterparts.

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15 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

That has always been my point once TX started blowing up.  We'd have it burn through the state like it did NY/NJ in March/April then it would start trending down.  Of course I was neg bombed for the insinuation that it needed to burn through the populace at this juncture.  Thankfully TX hospitals have proven to be orders of magnitude better at managing care than the northeastern counterparts.

That not at all what I am saying. I’m not surprised you were neg-bombed

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On 7/20/2020 at 12:27 PM, BonzoMontreaux said:

Son-in-law was positive a couple of weeks back.  He has to have two negative results before going back to work.  Still waiting on second negative result.  I am just glad he is getting paid on his time off.  On a side note, because of contact with SIL and daughter and grand kids, we have been locked down during that time as well.  Wife got tested - negative.  She was running low grade fever and dealing with allergies but didn't want to just assume that's what it was.  We were actually wanting a positive result if her mild allergy symptoms were indeed from Covid-19. 

 

 

 

Good luck.  I just found out today that we still have 2 employees out for extended periods of time, both still testing positive.  One has been out 12 weeks, the other 16 weeks.  I think there are still a lot of unknowns when it comes to the sneaky little bastard known as Covid19.

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27 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Good luck.  I just found out today that we still have 2 employees out for extended periods of time, both still testing positive.  One has been out 12 weeks, the other 16 weeks.  I think there are still a lot of unknowns when it comes to the sneaky little bastard known as Covid19.

Damn. My grandfather tested positive for 9.5 weeks without symptoms before he got three negative tests in 48 hours and was admitted back into assisted living. 

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1 hour ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Good luck.  I just found out today that we still have 2 employees out for extended periods of time, both still testing positive.  One has been out 12 weeks, the other 16 weeks.  I think there are still a lot of unknowns when it comes to the sneaky little bastard known as Covid19.

Man, this fucking thing. 

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1 hour ago, LebongJames said:

Another good day in Austin. 240 cases finally dropped below 100 on vents down to 140 in ICU and 390 hospitalizations 

love the good news. But just sound of Travis our numbers are way off. We went from 100+ a day to about 40-45, and then today rebounded back up to 70+. 

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Trends are good but we have a long way to go.  If you look at other examples around the world, the outbreak rise time is shorter than the fall time.  In Travis we have to eliminate 80% of the today's disease level we have now just to get back to April/May levels.  And April/May levels set us up for June when things got out of hand.

Hopefully we get back to April/May levels (about 50 cases per day for Travis Co).  Hopefully people keep their masks on and avoid crowds.  Hopefully some folks now have antibodies to help out.  Then, we have a chance to contain it and be rid of it.  Take your foot off the brake too soon and we will be right back here again.  Transmission may jump with cooler weather and there is no guarantee of a vaccine.

I know that's a bunch of gloom but we do see trends turning in our direction.  We have the power to make this go away, but we need to maintain the will.

 

 

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Travis county breakout by age. 50+ brackets for yesterday has a slight uptick vs their share of total cases overall.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 7/27 vs 7/26 0 4 11 66 50 40 34 17 7 11 240
% of Daily Change 0.00% 1.67% 4.58% 27.50% 20.83% 16.67% 14.17% 7.08% 2.92% 4.58%  
% of Total Cases 0.53% 2.73% 7.78% 27.23% 21.61% 16.32% 11.50% 6.37% 3.31% 2.62%   19,718

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9 hours ago, Texas Jeff said:

 

Hopefully we get back to April/May levels (about 50 cases per day for Travis Co).  

How much of those early levels was due to low testing in Austin?  I know in Dallas as testing picked up end of April into May cases increased but positivity rate stayed low.  In Dallas, I think the real baseline is around 200/day.   The numbers in the low 100's we were reporting in March and April were due to slow ramp up of testing.  

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Posted (edited)

It wasn't spreading as much in March and April.  Hospitalizations would have been at the same level back then it was as widespread.

Edited by kevwun

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, kevwun said:

It wasn't spreading as much in March and April.  Hospitalizations would have been at the same level back then it was as widespread.

In Dallas, hospitalizations were higher in late March/early April than they were in late April/early May.  I think the hospitalization data shows Dallas was actually on the verge of a pretty widespread outbreak when we shut things down in March.  We just didn't know it because we weren't testing anyone.   There was a noticeable increase in cases once testing capacity ramped up in mid-April without a similar rise in hospitalizations.

This is highlighted by the fact that in mid April data indicated 28% of known cases were hospitalized (i.e., we were primarily testing the very sick and their known contacts).  Now that stat is down to 12%.

Edited by Skipper

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2 hours ago, Skipper said:

How much of those early levels was due to low testing in Austin?  I know in Dallas as testing picked up end of April into May cases increased but positivity rate stayed low.  In Dallas, I think the real baseline is around 200/day.   The numbers in the low 100's we were reporting in March and April were due to slow ramp up of testing.  

Yeah, Corpus stayed at 3% or less positive rate until June when it started creeping up. Mid July we hit 25.5% and then we stopped reporting it. Last I saw in the daily task force brief it was well over 30% but starting to drop as of about a week ago. They are now estimating 1/7 of the county population has an active infection. I can’t believe that is actually right but at this point who the fuck knows.

https://www.cctexas.com/sites/default/files/7-24-20-TAMUCC-COVID-19.pdf

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On 7/26/2020 at 9:58 AM, Walte464 said:

RGV is going to be in a very very very bad place in 2-3 weeks with hurricane Hanna tracking this way. There is going to be major flooding and random people helping others in the flood without mask.

 

was busy with Hanna to post this last night, Hidalgo doesn’t post on saturdays. 341 people tested positive in Cameron with 8 deaths.

0DA6209F-AB2A-4D61-8DAD-803F27121DE2.jpeg

Been talking a lot with my family down there. Hardly any flooding at all so far. Was much worse 2 summers ago.

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26 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Yeah, Corpus stayed at 3% or less positive rate until June when it started creeping up. Mid July we hit 25.5% and then we stopped reporting it. Last I saw in the daily task force brief it was well over 30% but starting to drop as of about a week ago. They are now estimating 1/7 of the county population has an active infection. I can’t believe that is actually right but at this point who the fuck knows.

https://www.cctexas.com/sites/default/files/7-24-20-TAMUCC-COVID-19.pdf

Maybe if you all get herd immunity ya'll can have the NFL bubble this season.

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6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Maybe if you all get herd immunity ya'll can have the NFL bubble this season.

I've been to a game at Buccaneer Stadium, it'll make a fine place to host the NFL!

 

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Posted (edited)

Man that’s just evil so very appropriate for 2020. I hate the NFL.

Edited by justhookit

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1 hour ago, Helobious said:

Been talking a lot with my family down there. Hardly any flooding at all so far. Was much worse 2 summers ago.

There was still major flooding, just not as bad as last June. The wind and rain collapsed the La Plaza Mall roof AEP stated today that all the power won’t be totally fixed until Friday.

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https://www.kxan.com/news/education/texas-ag-ken-paxton-only-school-officials-can-decide-to-keep-schools-closed-not-health-authorities/

Quote

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton says that local health authorities can make some rules as schools reopen, but that they don’t have the power to keep schools closed.

In a statement on Tuesday, Paxton issued guidance for the 2020-21 school year, which has led districts statewide with many decisions about when and how to open during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Quote

Paxton’s office states that health authorities can address specifics about outbreak of diseases, but that doesn’t include, in his opinion, closing schools for the sole purpose of preventing future infections.

That decision, Paxton says, lies with school officials only.

“Education of our children is an essential Texas value and there is no current statewide order prohibiting any school from opening,” Paxton said. “While local health authorities may possess some authority to close schools in limited circumstances, they may not issue blanket orders closing all schools on a purely preventative basis. That decision rightfully remains with school system leaders.”

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https://www.kxan.com/investigations/hhsc-finally-releases-detailed-covid-19-nursing-home-data/

Quote

After refusing to release the names of senior facilities with cases of COVID-19 for the past four months, the Texas Health and Human Services Commission has publicly released that data on nursing homes, assisted living facilities and state supported living centers.

HHSC initially said the information was protected by health privacy laws, but a ruling by the Attorney General’s Office on July 6 said the agency should disclose it.

Quote

The sought-after data offers perhaps the most comprehensive look at COVID-19 cases in Texas’ long-term care facilities. Nursing homes have been slammed by the virus, and deaths in those facilities have accounted for more than a third of the state’s total fatalities from the virus.

Quote

The latest data shows five facilities have had more than 100 resident cases, including 157 residents infected at River City Care Center in San Antonio.

In the Austin area, West Oaks Nursing and Rehabilitation Center had 79 resident cases and 22 deaths. Riverside Nursing and Rehabilitation had resident 69 cases and 14 deaths.

 

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Going to see a slight bump in deaths, or rather revised counts.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/27/texas-coronavirus-deaths/

Quote

After months of undercounting coronavirus deaths, Texas’ formal tally of COVID-19 fatalities grew by more than 600 on Monday after state health officials changed their method of reporting.

The revised count indicates that more than 12% of the state’s death tally was unreported by state health officials before Monday.

Quote

The Texas Department of State Health Services is now counting deaths marked on death certificates as caused by COVID-19. Previously, the state relied on local and regional public health departments to verify and report deaths.

Quote

Public health experts have said for months that the state’s official death toll is an undercount. State health officials said Monday that the policy change would improve the accuracy and timeliness of their data.

Texas law requires death certificates to be filed within 10 days.

Quote

“This method does not include deaths of people who had COVID-19 but died of an unrelated cause,” the Texas Department of State Health Services said in a news release.

Hispanic Texans are overrepresented in the state's updated fatality count, making up 47% of deaths, according to health officials, while they make up about 40% of the state's population. White Texans account for 35% of deaths while Black Texans make up 14% of deaths. Before Monday, the state's racial and ethnic breakdown of deaths had large gaps, with up to 18% of deaths last month recorded as "unknown."

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, relapse98 said:

You mean the states that got hit hard with a novel virus first were less capable of taking care of patients than states that got hit later?
Amazing info!

No states that didn't objectively try to kill the poor outright.  It's ok you can still go lick the government's boot even in a daily Texan thread.

Please find me any place in the world that did worse than New York/New Jersey

Edited by Pimphand

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1 hour ago, Pimphand said:

Please find me any place in the world that did worse than New York/New Jersey

New York - 79 deaths per 100k

New Jersey - 177 deaths per 100k

Lombardy Italy  - 168 deaths per 100k

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Niece tested positive for Cv-19 a week ago, asymptomatic.  My S-I-L is trying to schedule follow-up testing to get the "all-clear" for niece, expecting the follow-up to be after the 14 day quarantine.

Doc#1: Quarantine through this Friday,  if no further symptoms, no further testing and resume life as usual

Doc #2- quarantine for two more weeks before retesting

Doc#3- If she is asymptomatic, why did she test to begin with?

Doc#4- Retest this coming Monday, Day 14 of initial quarantine

 

 These are legitimate responses from real docs.   I would have guessed the response from Doc#4 would be the more common theme.   That is who they are going with.

Just sharing the variation in doctors' opinions is pretty staggering. Crazy times...

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18 minutes ago, slorch said:

Niece tested positive for Cv-19 a week ago, asymptomatic.  My S-I-L is trying to schedule follow-up testing to get the "all-clear" for niece, expecting the follow-up to be after the 14 day quarantine.

Doc#1: Quarantine through this Friday,  if no further symptoms, no further testing and resume life as usual

Doc #2- quarantine for two more weeks before retesting

Doc#3- If she is asymptomatic, why did she test to begin with?

Doc#4- Retest this coming Monday, Day 14 of initial quarantine

 

 These are legitimate responses from real docs.   I would have guessed the response from Doc#4 would be the more common theme.   That is who they are going with.

Just sharing the variation in doctors' opinions is pretty staggering. Crazy times...

Retesting of an improving or asymptomatic patient is stupid. Although not PC, this is also a legitimate response. I would like doc #2 and 4 to explain their responses.

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2 hours ago, Pimphand said:

It's ok you can still go lick the government's boot even in a daily Texan thread.

Yeah, that's kinda our complaint....

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For reference, I have heard that some of the MLB players who tested positive have taken a month to finally test negative.  It can linger for a long time.

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9 minutes ago, kevwun said:

It can linger for a long time.

Detectable virus particles can linger for a long time. Some patients will have lasting illness but most residual positive tests are on asymptomatic and non contagious people.

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20 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Retesting of an improving or asymptomatic patient is stupid. Although not PC, this is also a legitimate response. I would like doc #2 and 4 to explain their responses.

  Genuinely asking:  would it not be important to retest an asymptomatic patient before they reentered the workforce?  If we're concerned about everyone involved, how do they know when they are clear?

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1 hour ago, kevwun said:

For reference, I have heard that some of the MLB players who tested positive have taken a month to finally test negative.  It can linger for a long time.

And they said a few days ago that if symptom free after 10 days, no need to retest.
I imagine that may take some time to trickle down to some employers. I know of at least 1 county that I follow that said if you were positive and now 10 days free of symptoms, come see us and I guess they write a get out of jail free card so maybe your employer will let you back in.

Once again, thankful my employers is allowing us to work from the house so I don't have to deal with the disaster that would be waiting for a free test in a long ass line and then waiting days to hear positive or negative, that would probably not be good for me mentally.

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3 hours ago, Pimphand said:

No states that didn't objectively try to kill the poor outright.  It's ok you can still go lick the government's boot even in a daily Texan thread.

Please find me any place in the world that did worse than New York/New Jersey

2 weeks! Italy!

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I got an email from my PCP’s office this afternoon that they have been chosen to participate in the vaccine trial. They are currently seeking volunteers. I put my name in the hat as interested. We’ll see where it goes, but hopefully I can get the vaccine soon. What the worst that can happen?

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11 minutes ago, Hate said:

I got an email from my PCP’s office this afternoon that they have been chosen to participate in the vaccine trial. They are currently seeking volunteers. I put my name in the hat as interested. We’ll see where it goes, but hopefully I can get the vaccine soon. What the worst that can happen?

2b26ff3ec34ac0b46340d1290d3c6433.jpg

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10 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Great day in Austin especially for a Tuesday. Only 232 new cases. Down to 370 hospitalizations. 133 in ICU and 97 vents

nice and bonus Tuesday.  got about 3 weeks to go.

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19 minutes ago, Hate said:

I got an email from my PCP’s office this afternoon that they have been chosen to participate in the vaccine trial. They are currently seeking volunteers. I put my name in the hat as interested. We’ll see where it goes, but hopefully I can get the vaccine soon. What the worst that can happen?

You die?  Or get brain chip controlled by bill gates. 

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I got an email from my PCP’s office this afternoon that they have been chosen to participate in the vaccine trial. They are currently seeking volunteers. I put my name in the hat as interested. We’ll see where it goes, but hopefully I can get the vaccine soon. What the worst that can happen?

Your never never gonna marry?


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