Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Bosco 56]

4 hours ago, Armybrat said:

1

[DDD Dad 14060]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

Obviously there are risks in your extreme examples but we know primary (not the only, but primary) method of transmission is close, sustained person to person contact.   We know virus particles disburse more quickly outside vs. inside, we know UV light kills virus particles, we know high heat kills virus particles and we know high humidity kills virus particles.   With that, most outdoor activities are relatively low risk.  Not zero risk, but low risk.  

I'll add that in your example of kids at the park while parents stand around talking, risk not eliminated in any event but I think a safe assumption that that the same scenario at 10AM on a hot, sunny, June morning vs. a cool, cloudy dry February morning would have materially different risks of virus transmission.

Disburse?

[Dbeasy 14733]

I want to make sure I’m thinking about these statistics correctly. You can’t really look at just the number of new cases, because the amount of testing may be going up.

So the statistics that matter most are: the trend line of percent positive tests, and number of hospitalizations?

The trend of percent positive is the best indication of a spread, right? Where are those stats posted?

For hospitalizations, any rise would be bad because its also an indication of spread? I’m not sure about how to interpret increases in hospitalizations.

[workswithseed 2012]

4 hours ago, Armybrat said:

For being about as old as Cane's kids, you have a lot of hair.

[Anastasis 23191]

1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

I want to make sure I’m thinking about these statistics correctly. You can’t really look at just the number of new cases, because the amount of testing may be going up.

So the statistics that matter most are: the trend line of percent positive tests, and number of hospitalizations?

The trend of percent positive is the best indication of a spread, right? Where are those stats posted?

For hospitalizations, any rise would be bad because its also an indication of spread? I’m not sure about how to interpret increases in hospitalizations.

I think that all the data points are useful, but I would argue that the most relevant ones in my opinion are: 1) daily new admissions; 2) daily ICU census versus capacity; and 3) daily fatalities. 

Daily new cases are a good leading indicator, but as you note there are too many factors influencing.  Hospitalization is real, and driven by fairly objective criteria. New admits rather than total hospital census, because census can be influenced by other factors such as longer length of stay (which might be a good thing in some cases). ICU census versus capacity is arguably the most important factor related to healthcare capacity.  And fatalities because that is the hardest endpoint there is. 

 

I am not dogmatic about any of these ideas, just throwing out where my head is at. Push back welcome. 

[dcbc 14179]

8 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

The trend of percent positive is the best indication of a spread, right? Where are those stats posted?

Read an article on KHOU's website yesterday that stated as of 6/16/20, testing rate for Texas was 4.91% and positive tests were around 5.67%.  Didn't have a timeline, but maybe a place to start.

Edited June 18, 2020 by dcbc

[Shaggybevo 353]

17 hours ago, Paper_jam said:

Kind of a tangent, but does anyone have a link or tip where to get decent quality masks? On Amazon there are tons of listings for masks, but the reviews generally are very poor (most common complaint being that the elastic breaks and/or the masks are much too small). Most of the "good" reviews are obvious plants (poor English, odd phrasing, etc.)

A new company based in Pflugerville is making medical masks locally.   I ordered some a couple of weeks ago, and received them today.  They look pretty good.  They are authorized by FDA under emergency use authorization (EUA).

https://buy.armbrustusa.com/

Edited June 18, 2020 by Shaggybevo

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

48 minutes ago, dcbc said:

I like to picture my Armybrat as having angel's wings and singin' lead vocals for Lynyrd Skynyrd.  And I'm in the front row, hammered drunk . . .  .

[MNLonghornFUKM 8780]

So the longhorns football team has 13 positives and 4 with antibodies. Are they doing Covid parties, not giving a fuck or both?

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

3 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So the longhorns football team has 13 positives and 4 with antibodies. Are they doing Covid parties, not giving a fuck or both?

Yes.

[Brisketexan 103141]

Sigh.  I'm back to being discouraged as hell.

We're obviously not capable of stemming the tide of cases in the US.  We're just not.  It's beyond us.  We're either stupid, selfish, or a toxic cocktail of both, at a high enough level to ensure that plenty of folks are going to continue to get sick, increasing steadily.

The potential news that we may not get post-infection immunity is really fucking discouraging.  That it may also translate to a vaccine not working well is really discouraging.

The news as to the speed of a vaccine being mass-produced is likewise discouraging -- even if it cranks through, maybe only 2 billion doses by the middle of 2021?  That leaves 5 billion people still susceptible.

We're not getting back to anything near normal for not weeks or months, but maybe YEARS.  Physically, mentally, and economically, we're just at the BEGINNING of the suffering, with no end in reasonable sight.  

I am going to get really drunk this weekend.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4956]

Correct me if I am wrong, but if we don't get post infection immunity, then the vaccine will be worthless, won't it?

[drt 631]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The potential news that we may not get post-infection immunity is really fucking discouraging.  That it may also translate to a vaccine not working well is really discouraging.

I'd pump the brakes on those 2 points, the evidence so far is not very robust.

And if it makes you feel better, the US is definitely going to take the lion's share of the initial doses of any vaccine.  So things will be back to normal for us far sooner than the rest of the world.  Even if that isn't for another year+

[MNLonghornFUKM 8780]

Sigh.  I'm back to being discouraged as hell.
We're obviously not capable of stemming the tide of cases in the US.  We're just not.  It's beyond us.  We're either stupid, selfish, or a toxic cocktail of both, at a high enough level to ensure that plenty of folks are going to continue to get sick, increasing steadily.
The potential news that we may not get post-infection immunity is really fucking discouraging.  That it may also translate to a vaccine not working well is really discouraging.
The news as to the speed of a vaccine being mass-produced is likewise discouraging -- even if it cranks through, maybe only 2 billion doses by the middle of 2021?  That leaves 5 billion people still susceptible.
We're not getting back to anything near normal for not weeks or months, but maybe YEARS.  Physically, mentally, and economically, we're just at the BEGINNING of the suffering, with no end in reasonable sight.  
I am going to get really drunk this weekend.

Oh calm down. It’ll be years the longer we stay locked in. The more younger the next wave,surge, spike you want to call it...and the less it’ll spread months from now.


Let’s not forget almost 50% of our deaths are LTC people. I think id rather be dead than live there, with no visitors and wait for the inevitable

[utee94 15671]

ballgame

brisket's back in end-of-the-world mode.  

Hey bt, I like you, I really do.  Which is why I'm going to suggest to you that you should probably just ditch surly-- and really all media of any kind-- for a long time.  Like, a couple of months.  Check back in August.  For your own sake.  We'll all still be here, which might not be such a good thing but it is the thing.

 

[Incredulity 11141]

39 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Read an article on KHOU's website yesterday that stated as of 6/16/20, testing rate for Texas was 4.91% and positive tests were around 5.67%.  Didn't have a timeline, but maybe a place to start.

but there is only a 30% chance of that.

[Somnio 751]

I thought it was pretty commonly accepted that there was no stopping the spread of this virus, and we were just trying to slow the spread so the hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed.

So far it seems we've done really well, and I say this as someone that was Team Ballgame back in March and April.

[NorthLoop 13906]

44 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

The potential news that we may not get post-infection immunity is really fucking discouraging.  That it may also translate to a vaccine not working well is really discouraging.

 

Huh? Millions of people worldwide have gotten it and there isn't a single proven case of any of them getting it twice. I think we're good on that part. 

[Hpara759 1777]

44 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Sigh.  I'm back to being discouraged as hell.

We're obviously not capable of stemming the tide of cases in the US.  We're just not.  It's beyond us.  We're either stupid, selfish, or a toxic cocktail of both, at a high enough level to ensure that plenty of folks are going to continue to get sick, increasing steadily.

The potential news that we may not get post-infection immunity is really fucking discouraging.  That it may also translate to a vaccine not working well is really discouraging.

The news as to the speed of a vaccine being mass-produced is likewise discouraging -- even if it cranks through, maybe only 2 billion doses by the middle of 2021?  That leaves 5 billion people still susceptible.

We're not getting back to anything near normal for not weeks or months, but maybe YEARS.  Physically, mentally, and economically, we're just at the BEGINNING of the suffering, with no end in reasonable sight.  

I am going to get really drunk this weekend.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

I want to make sure I’m thinking about these statistics correctly. You can’t really look at just the number of new cases, because the amount of testing may be going up.

So the statistics that matter most are: the trend line of percent positive tests, and number of hospitalizations?

The trend of percent positive is the best indication of a spread, right? Where are those stats posted?

For hospitalizations, any rise would be bad because its also an indication of spread? I’m not sure about how to interpret increases in hospitalizations.

Daily new cases aren't totally worthless. If daily new cases and percentage of tests positive is also going up, then it's a pretty safe bet that it's spreading. But they're definitely the most volatile and prone to being swayed by irrelevant factors (more testing or just reporting delay). 

Hospitalizations are fairly reliable. But even those have issues. I mentioned on the Texas re-opening thread that as of yesterday we may be seeing hospitalizations decrease or plateau which hopefully means the surge from Memorial Day was just that - a brief surge. But we're seeing a spike in new cases, which I'd attribute to the protests. I don't expect we'll see as many hospitalizations (because demographics). But that doesn't  mean the protests won't create more spread.

Point being - hospitalizations can even be a result of who is getting it (young active people vs. fat/old people). I'd expect a lower percentage of protesters to be hospitalized than if the spike was at, say, a BBQ cookoff. So it's not always a perfect way to figure out community spread.

You sort of have to look at everything together and make only halfway-insane guesses based off of imperfect data. 

Or just bust out your Magic 8-Ball.

Edited June 18, 2020 by BradInATX

[atomheartbevo 88750]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So the longhorns football team has 13 positives and 4 with antibodies. Are they doing Covid parties, not giving a fuck or both?

Made the national news.  Wonder if they were at the protest earlier this month, because some of those guys were arm-in-arm.   

Also, (foot)ballgame.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

I want to make sure I’m thinking about these statistics correctly. You can’t really look at just the number of new cases, because the amount of testing may be going up.

So the statistics that matter most are: the trend line of percent positive tests, and number of hospitalizations?

The trend of percent positive is the best indication of a spread, right? Where are those stats posted?

For hospitalizations, any rise would be bad because its also an indication of spread? I’m not sure about how to interpret increases in hospitalizations.

Not an expert, but here's where I get it from Johns Hopkins.

https://myemail.constantcontact.com/COVID-19-Updates---June-17.html?soid=1107826135286&aid=yq9yi7vWOqc

Excerpt:

A number of US states are reporting increased daily COVID-19 incidence, but most are also reporting increased testing, which could potentially be responsible for a proportion of the increase in reported cases. As part of its analysis, ProPublica compiles state-level test positivity rates and indicates whether each is currently increasing, decreasing, or holding steady. In total, at least 15 states are reporting increasing test positivity (out of 47 states with available data). Among these states, 2 states, Alabama and Arizona, are reporting positive results in more than 10% of all tests, and an additional 5 states—Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Texas—are reporting test positivity greater than 5% (the benchmark recommended by the WHO ). Three (3) states—Louisiana, North Carolina, and Utah—are reporting steady test positivity greater than 5%. Another expert analysis shows 20 states with increasing test positivity (out of 50), including 3 states greater than 10%—Alabama, Arizona, and South Carolina—and another 7 greater than 5%.

 

[sunset87 235]

13 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Daily new cases aren't totally worthless. If daily new cases and percentage of tests positive is also going up, then it's a pretty safe bet that it's spreading. But they're definitely the most volatile and prone to being swayed by irrelevant factors (more testing or just reporting delay). 

Hospitalizations are fairly reliable. But even those have issues. I mentioned on the Texas re-opening thread that as of yesterday we may be seeing hospitalizations decrease or plateau which hopefully means the surge from Memorial Day was just that - a brief surge. But we're seeing a spike in new cases, which I'd attribute to the protests. I don't expect we'll see as many hospitalizations (because demographics). But that doesn't  mean the protests won't create more spread.

Point being - hospitalizations can even be a result of who is getting it (young active people vs. fat/old people). I'd expect a lower percentage of protesters to be hospitalized than if the spike was at, say, a BBQ cookoff. So it's not always a perfect way to figure out community spread.

You sort of have to look at everything together and make only halfway-insane guesses based off of imperfect data. 

Or just bust out your Magic 8-Ball.

Daily new cases have gone up significantly in the last two to three weeks, where I live, but hospitalizations have not increased much. Certainly not relative to new cases.  Most of the new cases are younger people which is the most obvious explanation for the relatively low hospitalizations numbers. But, is it possible that the severity of the virus is lessening?

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

50 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

but there is only a 30% chance of that.

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, sunset87 said:

Daily new cases have gone up significantly in the last two to three weeks, where I live, but hospitalizations have not increased much. Certainly not relative to new cases.  Most of the new cases are younger people which is the most obvious explanation for the relatively low hospitalizations numbers. But, is it possible that the severity of the virus is lessening?

That's way out of my expertise range. I'm an analytics guy, not a medical professional. Some other guys here have done more reading on that and maybe can chime in on whether it's weakening or not.

Edited June 18, 2020 by BradInATX

[JBJ 3591]

2 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

Disburse?

Diffuse.

The best illistration I can come up with to explain his point is that it is like cigarette smoke.  You can smell a smoker from a pretty good distance, but it's not real bothersome to just walk by one or sit a fair distance away.  If you sit next to one all evening inside or are outside in group of them, it's overwhelming.

Odds of corona virus taking root from the light version is very low.  You get coronavirus from the overwhelming version.

Edited June 18, 2020 by JBJ

[DDD Dad 14060]

9 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Diffuse.

The best illistration I can come up with to explain his point is that it is like cigarette smoke.  You can smell a smoker from a pretty good distance, but it's not real bothersome to just walk by one or sit a fair distance away.  If you sit next to one all evening inside or are outside in group of them, it's overwhelming.

Odds of corona virus taking root from the light version is very low.  You get coronavirus from the overwhelming version.

Disperse.  

Carry on.

[Armybrat 40464]

I would think the FE* should factor in the infectious range.

*Fart Equation..... if you can smell it, you’re getting too close. If you’re starting to gag, you got it.

[BabaYaga 15115]

1 hour ago, sunset87 said:

Daily new cases have gone up significantly in the last two to three weeks, where I live, but hospitalizations have not increased much. Certainly not relative to new cases.  Most of the new cases are younger people which is the most obvious explanation for the relatively low hospitalizations numbers. But, is it possible that the severity of the virus is lessening?

Many, many more people are going back to work - of which there is a condition of being tested.  So we are seeing cases going up, but cases requiring more advanced medical aid dropping precipitously 

[Brisketexan 103141]

2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

So we are seeing cases going up, but cases requiring more advanced medical aid dropping precipitously 

Ummm.....that's literally the OPPOSITE of what's happening.  Cases requiring "more advanced medical aid" that is, admission into a hospital for treatment, are going UP, significantly.

And as several folks have posted, the number of cases is not a good metric for us to monitor in any direction, because it can be a function of increased testing.  Hospitalizations, though....those tell us that the number of serious cases are going up, in absolute terms.

[StruggleBus 3922]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Ummm.....that's literally the OPPOSITE of what's happening.  Cases requiring "more advanced medical aid" that is, admission into a hospital for treatment, are going UP, significantly.

And as several folks have posted, the number of cases is not a good metric for us to monitor in any direction, because it can be a function of increased testing.  Hospitalizations, though....those tell us that the number of serious cases are going up, in absolute terms.

Where are you getting the idea that once infected the antibodies don't prevent subsequent infections (too lazy to go look for your other post)?

[utee94 15671]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Ummm.....that's literally the OPPOSITE of what's happening.  Cases requiring "more advanced medical aid" that is, admission into a hospital for treatment, are going UP, significantly.

And as several folks have posted, the number of cases is not a good metric for us to monitor in any direction, because it can be a function of increased testing.  Hospitalizations, though....those tell us that the number of serious cases are going up, in absolute terms.

In absolute terms, yes.  I think he's getting at-- hospitalizations as a percentage of positive tests.  I haven't looked at it that closely, I'm not sure whether or not that is increasing, decreasing, or flat.

Edited June 18, 2020 by utee94

[Brisketexan 103141]

Just now, StruggleBus said:

Where are you getting the idea that once infected the antibodies don't prevent subsequent infections (too lazy to go look for your other post)?

It was in a study posted a page or so up from my post.  Involved looking at Chinese healthcare workers who were infected, but just a few months later showed no significant antibody presence.

[gmr548 16251]

It was in a study posted a page or so up from my post.  Involved looking at Chinese healthcare workers who were infected, but just a few months later showed no significant antibody presence.

It's always been a concern that immunity isn't permanent, because as I understand, it isn't for other coronaviruses.

Pretty good summary/analysis of recent research here: https://nyti.ms/2YeFWzu

Cliff notes: Long term immunity prospects are still very much inconclusive. There is a lot we don't know. But it's far from established that any immune benefit is gone in months, either.

[MoJames 8230]

28 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It was in a study posted a page or so up from my post.  Involved looking at Chinese healthcare workers who were infected, but just a few months later showed no significant antibody presence.

That sounds like the Government is trying to cover up something O_o

[BabaYaga 15115]

30 minutes ago, utee94 said:

In absolute terms, yes.  I think he's getting at-- hospitalizations as a percentage of positive tests.  I haven't looked at it that closely, I'm not sure whether or not that is increasing, decreasing, or flat.

Go back to Monday.  Look close to home - Hays county update

• Added 211 new cases
• So between 6/14 and 6/15, 265 new cases were added.
• 193 of these are between 20 and 29 years old.
• Only 1 additional case over 59 years old.
• 185 are from San Marcos
• It took only 5 days to double from 469 to 938
• Hospitalizations only added 1, and apparently 2 left so there are only 14 currently hospitalized from Hays County.

[StruggleBus 3922]

38 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Go back to Monday.  Look close to home - Hays county update

• Added 211 new cases
• So between 6/14 and 6/15, 265 new cases were added.
• 193 of these are between 20 and 29 years old.
• Only 1 additional case over 59 years old.
• 185 are from San Marcos
• It took only 5 days to double from 469 to 938
• Hospitalizations only added 1, and apparently 2 left so there are only 14 currently hospitalized from Hays County.

Sounds like teenagers. "Fuck you, I'm not staying at the hospital. I'm going squaring tonight"

[BabaYaga 15115]

2 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Sounds like teenagers. "Fuck you, I'm not staying at the hospital. I'm going squaring tonight"

#protest

#springbreak

#fuckchina

[gmr548 16251]

In absolute terms, yes.  I think he's getting at-- hospitalizations as a percentage of positive tests.  I haven't looked at it that closely, I'm not sure whether or not that is increasing, decreasing, or flat.

Go back to Monday.  Look close to home - Hays county update

• Added 211 new cases
• So between 6/14 and 6/15, 265 new cases were added.
• 193 of these are between 20 and 29 years old.
• Only 1 additional case over 59 years old.
• 185 are from San Marcos
• It took only 5 days to double from 469 to 938
• Hospitalizations only added 1, and apparently 2 left so there are only 14 currently hospitalized from Hays County.

This is good to help get a better idea of the amount of cases will ultimately require hospital care, particularly across age groups. But in terms of hospital capacity it really is the absolute number that matters. Texas isn't running out of fats or olds any time soon. You'd also not necessarialy expect to see hospitalizations accumulating from cases identified this week just yet. Next week would yield a more complete picture.

 

[BabaYaga 15115]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

This is good to help get a better idea of the amount of cases will ultimately require hospital care, particularly across age groups. But in terms of hospital capacity it really is the absolute number that matters. Texas isn't running out of fats or olds any time soon.

100%, but minus the ironic furloughs (lost staff due to COVID concerns that kept people from going to the hospital in the first place), most seem able to handle the aggregate number of new cases.  

As for you old, jelly-bellies, get your ass off the sofa and get some Vit D

 

[Sawbonz 26735]

3 hours ago, utee94 said:

ballgame

brisket's back in end-of-the-world mode.  

Hey bt, I like you, I really do.  Which is why I'm going to suggest to you that you should probably just ditch surly-- and really all media of any kind-- for a long time.  Like, a couple of months.  Check back in August.  For your own sake.  We'll all still be here, which might not be such a good thing but it is the thing.

 

Most of us will be dead by August 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

It was in a study posted a page or so up from my post.  Involved looking at Chinese healthcare workers who were infected, but just a few months later showed no significant antibody presence.

This one?  Not peer-reviewed FWTW, but some data from UT-Galveston.

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3089476/there-may-be-no-immunity-against-covid-19-new-wuhan-study

[orange dream 1199]

This section of the TX DHS covid dashboard has specifics about testing numbers and positive test rates for whoever was looking for that later.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

There a tabs for a variety of metrics.  There is also a tab for the hospital metrics by region.

[Brisketexan 103141]

11 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

This one?  Not peer-reviewed FWTW, but some data from UT-Galveston.

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3089476/there-may-be-no-immunity-against-covid-19-new-wuhan-study

That's it.  And yes, I know it's not the end-all-be-all, not yet peer reviewed, etc.....but I sure as shit don't like where it points.

[atomheartbevo 88750]

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/education/schools/texas-schools-fall-return/269-b1c6756e-3a66-4838-af5f-6425e418d78a

Quote

When students return, school districts will not be required to mandate students wear masks or test them for COVID-19 symptoms, said Frank Ward, a spokesperson for the Texas Education Agency.

The TEA is expected to release additional guidance for school districts next Tuesday. Abbott has long said his intention is for students to return in-person this fall, saying this week that there will "definitely be higher safety standards in place than when they opened last year."

"I will tell you that my goal is to see students back in classrooms in seats interacting personally with teachers as well as other students," he told KLBK TV in Lubbock on Monday. "This is a very important environmental setting for both the students, for the teachers and for the parents.”

 

[gmr548 16251]

This section of the TX DHS covid dashboard has specifics about testing numbers and positive test rates for whoever was looking for that later.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

There a tabs for a variety of metrics.  There is also a tab for the hospital metrics by region.

New cases are up bigtime in the past couple weeks. Well that's okay, positivity rate is a better metric. Oh damn that went up a significantly too. Well maybe we're testing fewer people? Oh, nope, that's up too. Well hospital capacity is the big thing. Oh hey look that's almost doubled since memorial day and up two thirds in two weeks.

 

Hopefully this plateaus with localities coming on stronger. Unfortunately people's behavior is the main thing, and harder to change.

 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

[ABSR 5266]

1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

Most of us will be dead by August 

 I hope so.   But just you guys...not me.

[Guest Lobo]

New Deaths?  Ah, yes.  As opposed to those old deaths that cost so much more.  For these prices, these deaths should be from this year.  Fresh!  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8780]

Now compare that to cases which isn’t plummeting like tests are


Somethings working..either it’s treatments,weaker strains, less olds getting sick..