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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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The Dog

The Dog 43716

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Nate admitting (to his credit, I might add) that shit may be borked in their Hispanic sample. Also, something I've wondered about this is that there really hasn't been much polling in Texas, so they are learning on the go. 

Now that it appears that Texas is approaching "swing state" status the pollsters are going to have to make the time and investment here to be accurate. And that's going to be very expensive for them as well as the candidates who now need to actually campaign here. 

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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18936

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For the bedwetters on the left still thinking Trump has a chance- this is what the PA poll that has Trump up 2 looks like:

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf


Completely implausible pretty much everywhere- the only cross tab I might believe is the white voters at 56 or 57 for Trump. Keep in mind- he went mid to high 60's last time (right?  RIGHT?) when he managed to lose by 3 points to Hillary). 

 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52234

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Cool, just got my first robocall. NAACP calling to tell me they are going to call back tomorrow night to join their virtual event in which the naacp president will host the cast of Fargo in a discussion of race relations in the new season and how it relates to the upcoming election. 
 

I’m guessing my Houston area code cell number is what got me on their call sheet.  Sounds kind of interesting actually. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104226

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16 minutes ago, SameSame said:

Can’t chill until he’s out, until he’s completely fucking out.

This.

I won't chill until he's out, all the way out....if that happens.

And you're goddamned right it's PTSD, but the problem is, it's fucking ongoing -- it's TSD, and it's ongoing.  My kingdom for us to get to the "P" part of PTSD.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14931

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Put a gun to my head and I'd bet Texas hispanic support for Trump is closer to 20% than 40%

Three Hispanic groups create votes for the Republicans - a lot of Hispanic business owners who take typical Republican views, a lot of Catholics, and a lot who’ve seen socialism in LA and the Caribbean and want to stay as far away from it as possible.
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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 53846

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29 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

For the bedwetters on the left still thinking Trump has a chance- this is what the PA poll that has Trump up 2 looks like:

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf


Completely implausible pretty much everywhere- the only cross tab I might believe is the white voters at 56 or 57 for Trump. Keep in mind- he went mid to high 60's last time (right?  RIGHT?) when he managed to lose by 3 points to Hillary). 

 

I mean, the basic math doesn't even work.  

image.thumb.png.08204f654d655348e7b5096c9e789dd9.png

5.3% of the 20 Hispanics are undecided?  There's no way to get any of those numbers out of a sample of 20.

41.2% of the 18 Others is 7.42 people.

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6531

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53 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Body temperature and taco talk not going away.  Well, we can keep the taco talk I guess.

That's funny because I ate some carnitas tacos off a taco truck a couple of weeks ago and within an hour my temperature went up and I had the shits.  Not sure if that was related.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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12 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I mean, the basic math doesn't even work.  

image.thumb.png.08204f654d655348e7b5096c9e789dd9.png

5.3% of the 20 Hispanics are undecided?  There's no way to get any of those numbers out of a sample of 20.

41.2% of the 18 Others is 7.42 people.

Could be something along the lines of a likely voter model that gives more weight to people who have already voted. Doesn't necessarily mean that the math is bad. 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5268

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34 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

For the bedwetters on the left still thinking Trump has a chance- this is what the PA poll that has Trump up 2 looks like:

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf


Completely implausible pretty much everywhere- the only cross tab I might believe is the white voters at 56 or 57 for Trump. Keep in mind- he went mid to high 60's last time (right?  RIGHT?) when he managed to lose by 3 points to Hillary). 

 

Not exaggerating, a High School social studies/government teacher that decided to do have his students do an election project would almost certainly put out a more professional poll.

Trump up 5 with voters aged 18-44, a demographic that Clinton won in PA by 10 points.

Biden crushing with Indies, but they only make up 8% of the sample (vs. 20% of PA voters in 2016.)

No apparent educational weighting.

It has all the classic hallmarks of the other MAGA-pumping polls flooding the averages lately (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, Susquehana):

1. Trump under 50% but ahead by 2 or 3 b/c Biden is stuck around ~45%. Seriously, it's almost always 47-45 or 48-46.

2. Biden's numbers inevitably are dragged down b/c Trump is pulling 2-3x the black vote as 2016 and 15-20% of Democratic respondents are crossing over to Trump or are undecided. 

3. Results released via 1-2 page PDF with extremely limited crosstabs and accompanying article talking about how the results paint a different picture than mainstream media consensus and touting the polling outfit as the only one who saw Trump's historic 2016 win coming...etc.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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Just now, Beau Vine said:

Then all of those numbers shouldn't add up to 100 in each column.

Yeah, they still would. If half of the 20 have voted and you count then as 1.4 "people" each, and half of the 20 have not voted and you count them as 0.6, it's still going to add up to 20 total, but you aren't going to get clean percentages that are multiples of 5. Hopefully that makes sense, it's a gross oversimplification but that's the general gist of how things get weighted differently. 

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staboner

staboner 4955

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56 minutes ago, SameSame said:

It’s hard to express how off base this is and how inherently arrogant and racist Kushner is.  He truly needs his ass kicked.

the ticker there is hilarious. reads 100% like something from idiocracy some 10+ years back. 

which i know we know, but damn that is on fucking point funny

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Horn Under a Bad Sign

Horn Under a Bad Sign 20334

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56 minutes ago, SameSame said:

It’s hard to express how off base this is and how inherently arrogant and racist Kushner is.  He truly needs his ass kicked.



No shit. It's not the fact that the police killed a man in a way that was clearly so fucked up, it's the fact that people expressed their outrage at the police killing a man in the way that was so fucked up.

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