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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

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29 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Here is Wulaw’s total lack of surprise. And a another data point brisket is a kook. And another data point that we are basically fair-ish in our election system
look- it’s a system governed by federalism so you are going to have regional differences based upon who controls where, but this is a design feature not a bug in most of American politics. And it’s not like in blue areas team Dem doesn’t try their hardest to ratfuck the GOP. And, we really won’t ever have 100% accurate vote counting bc- you try to get 100% certainty with 130 million people doing anything, but it’s pretty good and pretty fair and balanced a shit load of competing interests. 

What a load of bullshit.

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8 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

Any ideas on why polling in Arizona has tightened so much over the last several days, in Trump's favor?

Arizona is tough to poll.  I'm not sure it's tightening so much as it just remains close.

By the way, Raffi Melkonian has a good twitter thread for a pxp of the hearing going on in Houston, so you don't need to rely on Hugo's stupid ass.

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Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Please elaborate.

California vote harvesting. Basically e dry election ever when Missouri was close with 90+ Dem precincts voting extensions. 
Elections are really important things. To think that you wouldn’t, at a minimum, shade things to your benefit is crazy. It ignores all cheating we see in all areas of life. I’m supposed to believe we have rampant cheating in sports, we have college admissions scandals but politics is the one area where we are totally and completely fair minded?  It ignores the nature of human behavior. 

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On 10/30/2020 at 10:23 PM, Hagbard Celine said:

- two bags of grass

- seventy-five pellets of mescaline

- five sheets of high powered blotter acid

- a salt shaker half full of cocaine

- a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers

- a quart of tequila

- a quart of rum

- a case of Budweiser

- a pint of raw ether

- and two dozen amyls

 

The only thing that really concerns me is the ether.

 

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3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

 

 


You can fully expect Michigan to be uncalled on election night as well. Larger jurisdictions are allowed to process mail votes today but that’s it. State officials say it may be Friday.

You can expect Trump to sue over it.

AZ, if I remember correctly, is expected to have a possible call on election night unless it’s just a heat. It may be late but we should know whether Trump has the Election Day votes to catch Biden’s early and Mail tally. Same for NC and Florida.

 

 

Arizona will not be called on election night, it was 2 weeks in 2018

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19 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Brisket is often too pessimistic. But he’s not a kook. The  GOP filed numerous lawsuits requesting that the courts throw out whole categories of votes. Think about that. Is that something that happens in a healthy democracy? Fuck no. 

Thank god this judge did the right thing. But don’t diminish the seriousness of one major political party waging a widespread war on democracy. If Biden wins tomorrow, we need to spend the next four years working to unfuck national politics. Because things are pretty fucking far from okay right now.

Edit: not so fast... 

Let's be clear here. He is not a kook to think that a small number of nutcases, our current POTUS included, are going to try every trick they can to fuck up getting themselves elected out of office. They can, and they will. You can sue anybody for any reason in this country, as long as you pay a lawyer dumb enough to do it or file the suit yourself.

Where he's a kook is that he thinks the rest of America -- from rank-and-file citizens like you and me, to the courts, the House, even his own hand-picked SCOTUS members -- will put up with that bullshit, or that any of his ranting will even benefit him. Hell, he's shooting himself in the foot big-time.

For example:

Let's take these 3 Gore vs. Bush lawyers that are now on SCOTUS.

Do you remember precisely why the counts weren't changed? It's because Florida had tried to change their own rules in the middle of the counting. That's what SCOTUS ruled that they couldn't do. Florida tried to change the rules to make them more fair, granted. But what SCOTUS ruled -- and the Bush lawyers argued for -- was that the states were eminent in determining their own election laws, and that they couldn't change those laws after-the-fact.

Now, what is it exactly that we're afraid Trump will do? 

Change the laws after-the-fact or override the states' own laws. When he himself has 3 people on SCOTUS who argued against just that.

Remember, too, that these people are on the court for life, or until they decide to quit. There's no tit-for-tat here. They can rule however they see fit, and there's nothing anyone can do to stop them. Trump has no leverage on them.

In other words, once you actually look at the facts and the data and the evidence, this whole line of alarmist bullshit is absolute kookery.

Brisket believes what he believes because he believes it and despite the mountain of data that shows he's wrong. That is what makes him a kook.

 

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5 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Enough with the both sides bullshit.  Point to a place where Dems actively disenfranchise Republican voters.  Staten Islanders have equal access to polls, mail-in, and early voting, and nobody in the Bronx or Manhattan is trying to take that away from them. The OC gets all the access they want in Cali.

Also most Dem run states aren't gerrymandering.  Every single GOP run state is. 

Hurray, I guess, that a federal judge isn't as partisan as advertised. Meanwhile, it's your GOP team that brought this bullshit case in the first place. Something else that no Dems have even attempted. 

From hanging chads to drive through votes. It's the GOP that wants to throw out ballots every single time. 

Dems in Texas put on a master class in gerymandering when they had control. To believe that there isn't a thumb on the scale to benefit the party in power is completely and totally naive to the point where it ignores all of human behavior.  Why do we have steroids in sports?  Or trash can banging? Or deflated footballs?  Why do coaches call plays with play sheets covering their mouths? Why do we have admissions scandals? Because when the chips are on the table everyone looks for an advantage.  It's a fact of human nature.  But sure, one party only rises above that when power and shitloads of money are on the table.  Likely.

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3 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Arizona will not be called on election night, it was 2 weeks in 2018

AZ will have all of its early and mail-in votes counted by tomorrow when the polls close. The only thing that won't be counted by say, 2am Wednesday morning, will be absentee/military and a few late straggler mail-ins. It's more likely than not that we'll know AZ tomorrow or at least into the morning.

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Here is Wulaw’s total lack of surprise. And a another data point brisket is a kook. And another data point that we are basically fair-ish in our election system. 
look- it’s a system governed by federalism so you are going to have regional differences based upon who controls where, but this is a design feature not a bug in most of American politics. And it’s not like in blue areas team Dem doesn’t try their hardest to ratfuck the GOP. And, we really won’t ever have 100% accurate vote counting bc- you try to get 100% certainty with 130 million people doing anything, but it’s pretty good and pretty fair and balanced a shit load of competing interests. 
I realize you're relatively young and naive, but you're wrong. Certain people have been suppressing votes of other certain people since civil war reconstruction. Our own crippled governor thought a single drop box for 5 million people was a good plan. They hide behind words like voter fraud and election integrity.

Even W had Ashcroft analyze 100 million ballots and found 86 fraudulent votes. Voter fraud doesn't really exist but annual suppression does.
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28 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So far the court has shown a complete reticence to get involved in anything that’s overturns the states rightful place in hosting and handling the election. I expect it to continue to be that way. 
I still contend the only election ever stolen in my lifetime is likely the Norm Coleman v Al Franken election- but as I said- with millions of votes in question when it comes down to a difference of hundreds of votes we really can’t know. It’s like determining who has the better team in a triple OT game decided on a last second three pointer- whether the shot goes in or misses all we really can say with certainty about the two teams playing is that they are very closely matched. 

Stacey Abrams would have won if not for republicans rigging the election.   Fairish is not a beacon on a hill, fairish is not a standard.  And where is the evidence by the Libs to ratfuck the elections? 

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Just now, Rimbo said:

Every single person who's mentioned packing SCOTUS, for example.

How is expanding the Supreme Court an act of “disenfranchising voters?” Our elected officials are empowered to do this. If the majority of Congress and the President all align on the issue, then court expansion is consistent with the will of the voters. 

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3 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Let's be clear here. He is not a kook to think that a small number of nutcases, our current POTUS included, are going to try every trick they can to fuck up getting themselves elected out of office. They can, and they will. You can sue anybody for any reason in this country, as long as you pay a lawyer dumb enough to do it or file the suit yourself.

Where he's a kook is that he thinks the rest of America -- from rank-and-file citizens like you and me, to the courts, the House, even his own hand-picked SCOTUS members -- will put up with that bullshit, or that any of his ranting will even benefit him. Hell, he's shooting himself in the foot big-time.

For example:

Let's take these 3 Gore vs. Bush lawyers that are now on SCOTUS.

Do you remember precisely why the counts weren't changed? It's because Florida had tried to change their own rules in the middle of the counting. That's what SCOTUS ruled that they couldn't do. Florida tried to change the rules to make them more fair, granted. But what SCOTUS ruled -- and the Bush lawyers argued for -- was that the states were eminent in determining their own election laws, and that they couldn't change those laws after-the-fact.

Now, what is it exactly that we're afraid Trump will do? 

Change the laws after-the-fact or override the states' own laws. When he himself has 3 people on SCOTUS who argued against just that.

Remember, too, that these people are on the court for life, or until they decide to quit. There's no tit-for-tat here. They can rule however they see fit, and there's nothing anyone can do to stop them. Trump has no leverage on them.

In other words, once you actually look at the facts and the data and the evidence, this whole line of alarmist bullshit is absolute kookery.

Brisket believes what he believes because he believes it and despite the mountain of data that shows he's wrong. That is what makes him a kook.

 

Yes sir. That's exactly right. 

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26 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s actually pretty bad news for Dems if it’s accurate. It means they will barely get over the finish line and win a squeaker, with no mandate and no governing margin. 
But, Trump will be gone. 

Since when has a mandate been needed by Republicans? You are thinking like a Democrat, a win is a win and elections have consequences.

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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Dems in Texas put on a master class in gerymandering when they had control. To believe that there isn't a thumb on the scale to benefit the party in power is completely and totally naive to the point where it ignores all of human behavior.  Why do we have steroids in sports?  Or trash can banging? Or deflated footballs?  Why do coaches call plays with play sheets covering their mouths? Why do we have admissions scandals? Because when the chips are on the table everyone looks for an advantage.  It's a fact of human nature.  But sure, one party only rises above that when power and shitloads of money are on the table.  Likely.

You sound an awful lot like a sooner.

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Just now, Hiphopopotamos said:

Reading through that timeline it seems like Hanen wants to keep the drive-thru votes but shut down drive-thru voting on Election Day.  Is that so if another court takes up the issue they could invalidate the 127k but no one on election day would be impaceted?

I think he thinks (wrongly) that it's illegal but he doesn't want his house burned down if he throws out 127k votes. 

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Arizona will not be called on election night, it was 2 weeks in 2018

Aren't they getting a jump on it this time?  I was under the impression that they'd made some improvements to prevent a two-week delay this go-around.


They can count mail votes two weeks beforehand. If Biden’s EV/mail vote lead holds up over Trump’s Election Day numbers, or Trump surges to an insurmountable lead, the state will be called. If it’s exceedingly close, that’s where you could see a delay (and lawsuit) with counting out later absentee ballots.
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2 hours ago, SimonBolivar said:

I like to read the politics board on here, TexAgs, and SicEm365. I've never seen such a wide disconnect between reality. The conservative boards are 100% sure that there will be a large Trump victory even in the popular vote. We are more cautious in saying we're going to win, but I don't think there are any of us that doubts Biden will win the popular vote. There's going to be some really shocked people out there.

Yep, it's honestly kind of troubling to me. The disparity is enormous. See: https://www.tigerdroppings.com/rant/politics/

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There is a huge difference between things like gerrymandering (which the Republicans have taken to new levels) as well as legal court packing, and active attempts to throw out legally cast votes.

Come.

The.

Fuck.

On.

 

GAWD I cannot wait for this election to be over.

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3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Is this English?  I'm from Missouri so I'd really like to know your angle on state elections.

Yes. Every year in St. Louis when I was up there in law school the court cases were to allow the polls to stay open later, in precincts where the dems got 90+ percent of the vote. You could just count on that being a thing. I assume it's probably not as much of a thing anymore now that Missouri went from being a swing state to pretty red.  Disagree fine. Continue to neg me fine- I'm not going to respond anymore b/c this is the horserace thread and I don't need this to go on a 3 page diversion with people arguing with each other on something beyond the scope of the thread. Sorry for the derail.  Feel free to have the last word or bring on the red circle of bukkake- whatever.

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8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 


They can count mail votes two weeks beforehand. If Biden’s EV/mail vote lead holds up over Trump’s Election Day numbers, the state will be called. If it’s exceedingly close, that’s where you could see a delay (and lawsuit) with counting out later absentee ballots.

 

 

 

It's another state, like Wisconsin, where it seems likely that Biden will be winning when Trump tries his "stop the vote count!" bullshit. 

I think there's going to be a point in the night where Biden will be ahead in MI/WI/AZ which gets him 270 or 271 without Pennsylvania. At which point Trump will have zero outs left. Stopping the counting of votes keeps him in a losing position, and letting them continue would mean he'd get PA, which guarantees him a loss. That's probably about when the whole thing will be called for Biden. 

And that's how Biden wins a squeaker without much controversy. "Ok, stop the votes, Biden is already at 271. Good game". I hope it's much more resounding than that, but I'm not super worried about the Trump shenanigans because in almost any scenario, he's going to be openly contradicting himself in front of the courts. Even his packed Supreme Court is really unlikely to let him stop PA but have AZ keep counting.

AZ is one of the most important states this time around. It and Wisconsin can pre-emptively put a stop to Trump's bullshit.

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yes. Every year in St. Louis when I was up there in law school the court cases were to allow the polls to stay open later, in precincts where the dems got 90+ percent of the vote. You could just count on that being a thing. I assume it's probably not as much of a thing anymore now that Missouri went from being a swing state to pretty red.  Disagree fine. Continue to neg me fine- I'm not going to respond anymore b/c this is the horserace thread and I don't need this to go on a 3 page diversion with people arguing with each other on something beyond the scope of the thread. Sorry for the derail.  Feel free to have the last word or bring on the red circle of bukkake- whatever.

I didn't fucking neg you.  Those court cases were about voter volume per polling place; i.e., it was about having enough capacity to let everyone vote.

You have a staggering blind spot when it comes to Missouri and St. Louis.  I mean, you get almost everything wrong.

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13 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Aren't they getting a jump on it this time?  I was under the impression that they'd made some improvements to prevent a two-week delay this go-around.

Correct.  Also, in 2018, there were legitimate mail in ballots that arrived the day after.  That's unlikely to happen this time in the same number.  Most people mailed them back early.

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4 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Since when has a mandate been needed by Republicans? You are thinking like a Democrat, a win is a win and elections have consequences.

It's not a matter of thinking like a republican or a Democrat- it's a matter of keeping your own caucus together. If you control the Senate by a 50/50 margin with Harris acting as the tie breaker at all times it severely limits what you can accomplish from a partisan perspective.  You gonna get the Green New deal passed if you need the vote of Manchin or Siema?  I don't think that's really likely.  

You will be able to accomplish only whatever about 100% of your party wants to accomplish. With a wider than 50/50 margin in the Senate what was the GOP able to accomplish?  Tax cuts and that's about it. They couldn't even repeal Obama care with all three branches of the government. In a 50/50 world the dems will see the same thing happening when trying to govern, I would imagine. You aren't going to have all 50 Senators in line to pack the courts, or admit PR or DC as a state or green new deal or any of the other really ambitious desires of the party. Hell, I don't even know that you can roll back the tax cuts- but that might be possible. Public option?  Not super likely. Not with 50 senators.  52 or 53? You can probably get some shit done then I'd think. 

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20 hours ago, Rimbo said:

Let's be clear here. He is not a kook to think that a small number of nutcases, our current POTUS included, are going to try every trick they can to fuck up getting themselves elected out of office. They can, and they will. You can sue anybody for any reason in this country, as long as you pay a lawyer dumb enough to do it or file the suit yourself.

Where he's a kook is that he thinks the rest of America -- from rank-and-file citizens like you and me, to the courts, the House, even his own hand-picked SCOTUS members -- will put up with that bullshit, or that any of his ranting will even benefit him. Hell, he's shooting himself in the foot big-time.

For example:

Let's take these 3 Gore vs. Bush lawyers that are now on SCOTUS.

Do you remember precisely why the counts weren't changed? It's because Florida had tried to change their own rules in the middle of the counting. That's what SCOTUS ruled that they couldn't do. Florida tried to change the rules to make them more fair, granted. But what SCOTUS ruled -- and the Bush lawyers argued for -- was that the states were eminent in determining their own election laws, and that they couldn't change those laws after-the-fact.

Now, what is it exactly that we're afraid Trump will do? 

Change the laws after-the-fact or override the states' own laws. When he himself has 3 people on SCOTUS who argued against just that.

Remember, too, that these people are on the court for life, or until they decide to quit. There's no tit-for-tat here. They can rule however they see fit, and there's nothing anyone can do to stop them. Trump has no leverage on them.

In other words, once you actually look at the facts and the data and the evidence, this whole line of alarmist bullshit is absolute kookery.

Brisket believes what he believes because he believes it and despite the mountain of data that shows he's wrong. That is what makes him a kook.

 

This isn't actually what happened. I'm not going to summarize the whole thing (anyone who is interested can find a long discussion of it here: https://scholarship.law.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3314&context=penn_law_review), but essentially SCOTUS ordered the Florida Supreme Court to order the recount be conducted one way and then turned around afterward and imposed a completely different standard that it hadn't even mentioned in its prior order. Florida's Supreme Court was trying in good faith to work its way through some real thorny issues and SCOTUS ratfucked them and then the majority pinned all of the blame on Florida's Supreme Court to distract from their own bullshit.  

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3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I didn't fucking neg you.  Those court cases were about voter volume per polling place; i.e., it was about having enough capacity to let everyone vote.

You have a staggering blind spot when it comes to Missouri and St. Louis.  I mean, you get almost everything wrong.

I was about to say, it’s really pretty eye opening had blatantly wrong he is about this. And he claims he’s an attorney?

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6 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

The fuck? The position that the drive-thru voting is illegal is fucking meritless

It'll have 4 votes on SCOTUS, at least, because the Texas legislature didn't recently pass a new law expressly stating that Harris County should have 3 drive through voting centers.

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3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

It's another state, like Wisconsin, where it seems likely that Biden will be winning when Trump tries his "stop the vote count!" bullshit. 

I think there's going to be a point in the night where Biden will be ahead in MI/WI/AZ which gets him 270 or 271 without Pennsylvania. At which point Trump will have zero outs left. Stopping the counting of votes keeps him in a losing position, and letting them continue would mean he'd get PA, which guarantees him a loss. That's probably about when the whole thing will be called for Biden. 

And that's how Biden wins a squeaker without much controversy. "Ok, stop the votes, Biden is already at 271. Good game". I hope it's much more resounding than that, but I'm not super worried about the Trump shenanigans because in almost any scenario, he's going to be openly contradicting himself in front of the courts.

Omaha is pretty important for that scenario to play out, along with Maine's other congressional district. If you don't get Omaha  or all of Maine's CDs you pretty much have to count everything everywhere if Trump keeps NC, Florida, GA and Texas, which isn't a super big ask or anything if the election ends up being a close one. 

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Correct.  Also, in 2018, there were legitimate mail in ballots that arrived the day after.  That's unlikely to happen this time in the same number.  Most people mailed them back early.

I hope you’re right. But more voters voting by mail because of Covid and trump destroying the postal service doesn’t give me the warm fuzzies.
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