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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers


StassneyHorn

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1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

I should've clarified that meant in Texas (as well as some other places mentioned). I didn't get that sense only because they were campaign folks speaking anonymously and willingly conceded not performing well elsewhere. But without further info it's impossible to tell.

The fact that they also claim to be feeling good about EV turnout in Nevada is a strong indication that they're lying.

Clark county already overtook its total 2016 vote with Election Day still to come.

 

 

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So we only need 12,000 people to vote in Hidalgo County and have them vote exactly the same way they always do? Hopfully. That seems like a good bet.

Travis and Bexar Counties need to be as pro-Biden as they were pro-Beto.

Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, and Fort Bend County needs to like Biden about 3% or so more than they liked Beto.

All that happening seems like a stretch. I guess we will all (well at least the never Trumpers of us) be hoping for a miracle on Tuesday. Watch those county totals.

 

Edited by Valmy77
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So we only need 12,000 people to vote in Hidalgo County and have them vote exactly the same way they always do? Hopfully. That seems like a good bet.
Travis and Bexar Counties need to be as pro-Biden as they were pro-Beto.
Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, and Fort Bend County needs to like Biden about 3% or so more than they liked Beto.
All that happening seems like a stretch. I guess we will all (well at least the never Trumpers of us) be hoping for a miracle on Tuesday. Watch those county totals.
 

Comparing Beto to Biden without accounting for their opponents is half hearted. Ultimately I still think Tx goes trump though.
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The fact that they also claim to be feeling good about EV turnout in Nevada is a strong indication that they're lying.
Clark county already overtook its total 2016 vote with Election Day still to come.
 
 

I mean, that info was sourced in advance of this news obviously. Good to see though.
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43 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Ultimately I think we see a race that looks nearly indistinguishable from 2018 in terms of margins by county.

You keep saying this unbelievably stupid shit. 

Covid-19. The entire BLM movement. Women's rights being completely shit on. 

Those were not on the 2018 ballot, no one even fucking knew those were possible on the 2018 ballot. 

If you think voters are behaving the exact same way you are beyond help. The data shows that Trump's favorability on how he is handling the pandemic are in the fucking basement. He's an incumbent with lower than a 40% approval rating in an election year. A year where 230k+ americans have died from a pandemic. A year where the fire of social injustice is burning so white hot that major cities are experiencing massive marches amidst a pandemic. A year where a SC Justice was pushed through confirmation before Aid for the highest number of unemployed Americans since the great depression. 

Open your eyes and ears. This isn't the main stream media talking points, these are real things that A LOT OF PEOPLE who didn't vote in 2016 or 2018 care deeply about. 

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17 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

It would be ridiculous for a Republican hack like Hanen to toss the votes out, have the decision affirmed by the 5th circuit 2-1 with Edith Brown writing the opinion, and going up to the Supreme Court where it’s upheld by a 5-4 Court with the principled John Robert’s voting with the liberals because he has coverage. That could never happen. 

Edith Jones is the really toxic one. Although Edith Brown Clement would do in a pinch.

How extraordinary(ily fucked up) is it that the Fifth Circuit has two constipated church ladies named Edith as judges?  And another one named Priscilla.

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This one goes by Joy.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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You keep saying this unbelievably stupid shit. 
Covid-19. The entire BLM movement. Women's rights being completely shit on. 
Those were not on the 2018 ballot, no one even fucking knew those were possible on the 2018 ballot. 
If you think voters are behaving the exact same way you are beyond help. The data shows that Trump's favorability on how he is handling the pandemic are in the fucking basement. He's an incumbent with lower than a 40% approval rating in an election year. A year where 230k+ americans have died from a pandemic. A year where the fire of social injustice is burning so white hot that major cities are experiencing massive marches amidst a pandemic. A year where a SC Justice was pushed through confirmation before Aid for the highest number of unemployed Americans since the great depression. 
Open your eyes and ears. This isn't the main stream media talking points, these are real things that A LOT OF PEOPLE who didn't vote in 2016 or 2018 care deeply about. 


And yet the vast majority of people fit their opinions on those things around their existing political/partisan associations, not the other way around. What limited hard data we have says a Trump win in TX is more likely than not. This basically comes down to you having faith people are going to do right and me being skeptical of that.
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10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 


And yet the vast majority of people fit their opinions on those things around their existing political/partisan associations, not the other way around. What limited hard data we have says a Trump win in TX is more likely than not. This basically comes down to you having faith people are going to do right and me being skeptical of that.

 

I can get on board with that.

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13 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Beto's out there killing it. And love AOC being involved as well. 

 

I made about 250 calls with them yesterday. Heard some good and bad. A few voters switched over to Biden after Trump's first debate performance. Many intended to vote, some had no intentions, I got a lot of Spanish speakers who get labeled as so and get put back in the queue for a phone call from a spanish-speaking volunteer. Overall it was a mixed bag. If you make 20 calls you're probably making a difference on 1-2 people.

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I was going to listen to the hearing in the Southern District this morning regarding the drive through votes, but the Court either decided not to allow the public to listen, the hearing got cancelled, or they’re having technical problems. 



They’re up to shenanigans.
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11 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I will agree the BLM movement doesn’t change many pre-existing mindsets, but COVID and women’s rights most definitely will swing some votes. COVID alone has allegedly made a significant impact on dotard’s senior citizen fire wall.

It's actually pretty terrifying to think that if Trump had just done even a mediocre job with the handling of Covid, we'd probably be looking at re-election in an electoral landslide.

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9 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

It's actually pretty terrifying to think that if Trump had just done even a mediocre job with the handling of Covid, we'd probably be looking at re-election in an electoral landslide.

Yeah there's a good chance that would've happened. People are scared of what happens post-election, but the long term viability of a population brimming with complete morons is a bigger issue.

Edited by Bevo14
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3 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

I made about 250 calls with them yesterday. Heard some good and bad. A few voters switched over to Biden after Trump's first debate performance. Many intended to vote, some had no intentions, I got a lot of Spanish speakers who get labeled as so and get put back in the queue for a phone call from a spanish-speaking volunteer. Overall it was a mixed bag. If you make 20 calls you're probably making a difference on 1-2 people.

Your description of the actual process is cool.

I struggle tremendously that there are folks out there, given the gravity of the situation, and they were like, "well, I wasn't even going to vote until this nice man/ lady called me..."

Really?  SMDH, if true. 

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18 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Beto's out there killing it. And love AOC being involved as well. 

 

"You can't win, Darth Cruz. If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine."

  --O'Rourke-Wan Kenobeto

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Thinking out loud: So knowing the vote count is relatively secure, we have 9,719,100 early/mail in votes received per the Tribune. If Trump is ahead in those it is already over, but for argument's sake let's assume Biden is leading in that number (I think that's probably the expectation based on polling data).

If Biden is +7 in that count as the recent NYT poll suggests, he has a lead of approximately 680k votes. But that was with a week of early voting left with remaining voters more likely to vote Trump. Biden +2 is about 195k.

1.28 million votes needed to get to 11 million. So in the Biden +2 scenario he needs to get to 43 percent of remaining election day votes and the minute amount of mail ballots yet to be received. If we go to 12 million Biden has to get to about 46 percent. That feels optimistic but not impossible in the 11mm scenario, unlikely in the 12mm given how heavily Trump election day looks to skew. If we largely siphoned votes from election day in the third week, which I think we might have, and we get a lower turnout of 10.5mm, Biden only needs to get about 38 percent on the remaining if he is +2. Of course, if that's the case, he probably isn't up in the total count in the first place.

Biden +5 is about 485k votes and the chances sound a lot more plausible there. If early votes start coming in and Biden has a margin of that size, itmightjustbehappening.gif.

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Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

maybe...shit, probably the most important race in Texas. 

Damn right. We might be in a position to force common sense non-partisan redistricting next session.

Or not, I am not exactly sure how that works constitutionally. But we could at least make them sweat a bit while they gerrymander us. 

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5 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Damn right. We might be in a position to force common sense non-partisan redistricting next session.

Or not, I am not exactly sure how that works constitutionally. But we could at least make them sweat a bit while they gerrymander us. 

If this were to happen, I'd want the Dems to gather the Republican leadership into a room without any cameras or media, and show them two maps: one gerrymandered in favor of the Democrats, and the other done entirely fairly. Then tell the Republicans, "you'll get the fair one if you publicly disavow Trump and Qanon, and state your unequivocal support for the ongoing investigation of the Trump administration. If you don't, we'll make sure every Republican has to wait a minimum of six hours in line to vote for our next president."

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I mean that would be great. But I think if the Governor and the House cannot agree with redrawing the districts there is some kind of process that allows the Republicans to draw the damn things anyway. I hope we win the House so I can find out if I am wrong.

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It’s going to end up in the SC either way. Hopefully we pick up a few seats there as well. (Those races have been really quiet, btw. Any poling there?)

They’ll probably be right in line with the senate race or even slightly more R. They’re basically a measure of partisanship.
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35 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


They’ll probably be right in line with the senate race or even slightly more R. They’re basically a measure of partisanship.

Yeah I was going to say that I think the Supreme Court races will be interesting to see where the Texas electorate really is when candidates don’t matter. That’s about as anonymous/generic as it gets. 

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Hanen’s order 

 

 

Imo, this means Harris better not have drive through tomorrow.  
 

I can envision some crazy scenario where day-of votes are thrown out because of an eventual finding of standing giving he said if standing was appropriate day-of doesn’t allow tents.

 

 

Edited by BehoId, The Underminer!
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4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Hansen’s order 

 

 

Imo, this means Harris better not have drive through tomorrow.  
 

I can envision some crazy scenario where day-of votes are thrown out because of an eventual finding of standing giving he said if standing was appropriate day-of doesn’t allow tents.

 

 

I dare them to fucking throw out votes after Texas turns blue.

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