Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
21 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

I’m not going to put words in your mouth because, but the bolded statement seems poorly reasoned. 
You seem to have assumed that Trump’s campaign rhetoric was hollow, but producers that rely on imports did no such thing, because the risk was too high, and that’s the major cause of the GDP contraction. The DOGE stuff is and will remain a rounding error. 
The threat of new taxes and policy uncertainty are inherently anti-growth and I’m surprised you don’t take them into account. 
 

In other words. If the incoming president says “I’m going to do tarriffs and deport a bunch of skilled construction labor,” he need not do it for the economy to start contracting. 

The narrative shift from, "take everything Trump says with a grain of salt" to "Trump does everything he says" is quite interesting.  Look, as I said above my push back was on the point that tariff liberation day was, in his words, the "triggering action".

Posted

I’m not sure what narrative shift you are talking about, but rational economic actors with a gun to their heads don’t have the luxury of speculation and shouldn’t indulge in it and those who allow their politics to influence their approach to risk management sow the wind.
The chain of causality here is that tarriffs and other policies were promised, and many producers and users hedged accordingly.
 
And by the way, as long as we are talking about “narratives,” you shouldn’t minimize what actually happened in 2017, which was the US losing a really dumb trade war that cost us market share we will never get back among other things. 

Posted
17 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

, but rational economic actors with a gun to their heads don’t have the luxury of speculation and shouldn’t indulge in it

Yup, everyone has perfect information and unlimited capital in the fucking text book.  Out here on main street it's a bit different.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Yup, everyone has perfect information and unlimited capital in the fucking text book.  Out here on main street it's a bit different.

Lol, OK.  
In December/January, businesses that depended on finished non perishable imports or capital goods were getting ahead of things that could happen based  on the imperfect information they had at the time, which was the stated, consistent position of the incoming president on how he planned to use the powers of his office in the first hundred days.  That’s what happened. Sorry if Main Street let you down, I guess.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
  • Hook 'Em 1

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...