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Posted

could be. I just did a quick google search of the respective fees, and the information I looked at showed a management fee of .4% for VUG, which appears to be off by an order of magnitude, lulz. But the fees for both are so low, its basically noise when discussing returns of 379% and 275%. QQQ has a slightly better yield, but probably not enough to erase the difference in management fees. Really, I was just curious why you wouldn't select a Nasdaq based fund rather than a S&P based fund, if a concentration in tech was your reason for choosing VUG over SPY. Its funny though the top 10 holdings are pretty damn similar, and in my mind uncomfortably concentrated: 

image.png.be8fb6f471ac33f316dd8b91d8f99000.png

Basically switch out netflix(QQQ) for Lilly(VUG). Its a battle of people getting fat sitting around watching NFLX vs people trying to get healthy. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And they revised down again 68k jobs last 2 months. 
There were two options before as they did it for 2 solid years under Biden- incompetent or politically motivated. 
same shit every month with Trump so that leaves incompetent. But it’s absolutely a thing that’s been going on for a long ass time. The miss is always the same direction. 

Do you know how the job numbers are run each month? I do, because it was my job for a year right out of grad school in the late 1990s.

Each state’s labor department and without federal influence (e.g., Labor Market Information division of the Texas Workforce Commission in this state) has a section devoted to:

  1. Independently calculating the number of jobs by sector in its own state, based on a sample of data from individual employers who are required to report their staff on the payroll. These calculations are done twice monthly, with the second revised estimate simply having more data, allowing for greater accuracy as the month passes. This is a "job count" by state, county, and industry, and is continuously verified by calling HR departments around the state, cleaned up, and revised with a final "benchmark" at the end of each year.
  2. Surveying households to calculate employment and unemployment estimates on whether or not people are working. This survey is then applied to Census data, estimating the number of people over the age of 16 years (working age civilian labor force) by state and county. This is a "people count" by state and county, with major revisions only conducted each decade after the decennial census.

These figures come from the individual analysts at each state’s employment commission. The only federal oversight occurs during the "benchmarking process," where analysts from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics fly in and pore over the numbers with the party responsible for each dataset. For example, I personally was responsible for defending a year of my own numbers in a two-on-one meeting with federal analysts.

None of this is to say that they are precise, ball-on-accurate data. Still, I can affirmatively attest that all the calculations are performed with zero federal influence and only a modicum of federal oversight.

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Posted

Let me add, @Wulaw Horn, your not understanding something doesn't make it a conspiracy. In fact, I'd say the majority of this country's problem is people jumping to that kind of conclusion without understanding the basics about what the fuck is actually happening and how shit works.

Instead, uninformed people often seem to prefer making assumptions and acting before they even start to ask questions. Then, they end up fucking around and finding out.

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Posted
6 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

He got the gold mine, she got the shaft

Yes, our relationship with money has always been complicated.  I have always been the provider, we had the two kids together in the late 90s, she stayed at home long enough to get the kids ready for school and then returned back to work when they went to school. We were never 100% on the same page financially, but we are closer now than we have been in a long time.   

She definitely has the heart of a spender, but to give her credit, she has compromised in the last half a dozen years.  During the Arctic years I did come back to Texas to spend two weeks of Christmas and entire summers with her, but yes, it was the distance we both needed.  But, once we moved her into the apartment in SA in 2023, I paid all of the rent.

So, I was paying tiny rent above Arctic circle($360) and the rent on the two bedroom apt in SA, about $1000.  It didn't hurt that in addition to investing for retirement, I also did the following:

1. paid off the 2022 car-Hyundai Kona-we bought in 2021 - took me about 16 months. 

2. bought her a Black Friday deal on a washer and dryer-$1300 all in delivered. 

3. paid off previous grad school loans I had incurred in about 2015-about $11000

Who missed each other the most?  I think she missed me most.  

 

 

 

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Posted
6 hours ago, B00M said:


One part of this story confused me. What was the benefit of buying service credit from TRS?

and did you mean to say that the best 3 years of your life were when you lived north of the arctic circle without your wife?

celebrity perverts GIF
 

re: buying service credit from TRS.  the short answer is that it increases the pension.  Basically a trade-off.  Do you like more guaranteed income streams or more $ in the stock market in deferred accounts?  I am retiring with 30 years combined ERS and TRS. 30 x 2.3= 69.  I get 69% of high five avg. annual Texas salary.  Without buying the Alaska years from TRS, I would have had only 24 years credit.  

The longer answer is that I used "qualified" money, aka traditional IRA money, to buy the years, which reduces the traditional IRA that would be subject to RMDs later on.  I just had a retirement plan completed by Trowe and unless the wife dies earlier than expected, I will stay in the 15% or lower tax bracket.  Her dying before me puts me into the higher tax bracket unless I remarry.    She is 2 years older than me, so I predict we both die about the same time. 

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Posted
16 minutes ago, JGrayDBU said:

Yes, our relationship with money has always been complicated.  I have always been the provider, we had the two kids together in the late 90s, she stayed at home long enough to get the kids ready for school and then returned back to work when they went to school. We were never 100% on the same page financially, but we are closer now than we have been in a long time.   

She definitely has the heart of a spender, but to give her credit, she has compromised in the last half a dozen years.  During the Arctic years I did come back to Texas to spend two weeks of Christmas and entire summers with her, but yes, it was the distance we both needed.  But, once we moved her into the apartment in SA in 2023, I paid all of the rent.

So, I was paying tiny rent above Arctic circle($360) and the rent on the two bedroom apt in SA, about $1000.  It didn't hurt that in addition to investing for retirement, I also did the following:

1. paid off the 2022 car-Hyundai Kona-we bought in 2021 - took me about 16 months. 

2. bought her a Black Friday deal on a washer and dryer-$1300 all in delivered. 

3. paid off previous grad school loans I had incurred in about 2015-about $11000

Who missed each other the most?  I think she missed me most.  

 

 

 

This is a much more thoughtful answer than I deserved. Thank you and congratulations on your retirement and marriage. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, bolverk said:

For example, I personally was responsible for defending a year of my own numbers in a two-on-one meeting with federal analysts.

None of this is to say that they are precise, ball-on-accurate data. Still, I can affirmatively attest that all the calculations are performed with zero federal influence and only a modicum of federal oversight.

So we are going with incompetence? 😉 

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Posted
Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

This is a much more thoughtful answer than I deserved. Thank you and congratulations on your retirement and marriage. 

You are welcome.  I am dead serious when I say it was this board that has helped over the years, because it would have been so easy to give up many times.  But I believe it was no accident I was pointed to the bogleheads by someone from this board.  And luckily enough, the annual national convention of bogleheads is coming to San Antonio in a few months.  I will be there, volunteering my time.  

 

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Posted

Putting the Jobs report in context: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/02/jobs-report-april-2025.html

Quote

Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 177,000 for the month, slightly below the downwardly revised 185,000 in March but above the Dow Jones estimate for 133,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

The federal government reported a loss of 9,000 jobs on the month amid Trump’s efforts, led by Elon Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency, to trim payrolls in the public sector. Federal government jobs have declined by just 26,000 since January, as employees furloughed but still receiving severance are not counted as unemployed, according to the BLS.

“This first jobs report post-Liberation Day is much too soon for the impacts of tariffs to show up,” said Daniel Zhao, lead economist at job review site Glassdoor. “Even May may still be too early as businesses work down inventories. But today’s report does set the benchmark against which we’ll measure the tariff impacts.”

I interpret these factors as the quiet before the storm:

  • Too early to measure "Liberation Day" impact
    • Think of the dock workers and truck drivers that were working on the accelerated imports in Q1 that are not going to be working in the next report due to tariffs
    • As prices rise and shelves empty stores, small businesses, fulfillment warehouses and delivery drivers will be impacted
  • Most of the federal employees impacted by DOGE are still on the payroll as part of their severance and not counted but the clock is counting down
    • If they get new jobs in in the transition period they might actually be counted twice, inflating numbers
  • It came in at 44K jobs above the 133,000 estimate
    • This is a down trend from the March revised numbers so down to begin with
    • March was adjusted down by 43,000 so a similar adjustment for April would wipe out the "defying expectations" to a "met predicted"
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Posted
30 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Putting the Jobs report in context: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/02/jobs-report-april-2025.html

I interpret these factors as the quiet before the storm:

  • Too early to measure "Liberation Day" impact
    • Think of the dock workers and truck drivers that were working on the accelerated imports in Q1 that are not going to be working in the next report due to tariffs
    • As prices rise and shelves empty stores, small businesses, fulfillment warehouses and delivery drivers will be impacted
  • Most of the federal employees impacted by DOGE are still on the payroll as part of their severance and not counted but the clock is counting down
    • If they get new jobs in in the transition period they might actually be counted twice, inflating numbers
  • It came in at 44K jobs above the 133,000 estimate
    • This is a down trend from the March revised numbers so down to begin with
    • March was adjusted down by 43,000 so a similar adjustment for April would wipe out the "defying expectations" to a "met predicted"

 

Something also to bear in mind is that state employment commissions don't estimate job numbers for federal agencies, the railroads (I don't recall the rationale for that), or the post office (weird quasi-federal workers). Everything else, if I'm remembering correctly, is. Also, jobs are only to be counted if they are present during the week of each month that the 12th falls on. Anything that happens after that week is recorded for the following month.

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Posted

Markets closed above pre-tariff day levels today.  Why? Do we really think there has been a come to jesus moment or are we going to repeat this farce when the 90 day kick the can is over?

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Posted
30 minutes ago, WBT said:

Markets closed above pre-tariff day levels today.  Why? Do we really think there has been a come to jesus moment or are we going to repeat this farce when the 90 day kick the can is over?

I think it’s either next week or the week after when we’ll see the 30% drop in activity at US ports. You would think this is priced in but … Is it? 

pretty good follow to avoid the premature panic:

https://youtube.com/@wgowshipping?si=IWfH_qH6l_KYvgKk
 

Posted
1 hour ago, WBT said:

Markets closed above pre-tariff day levels today.  Why? Do we really think there has been a come to jesus moment or are we going to repeat this farce when the 90 day kick the can is over?

This is where I'm at and came to this thread to see what I'm missing.  I don't 'trade' but paused my auto fund investments this week.  I'm struggling to understand a base case for the economy/market improving over the next 6 months.  Even in the scenario where a deal is cut with China and/or other countries in the near term, there should be at least some irreversible short term damage to jobs, supply chain, etc. that won't be reflected in any data yet (but should be priced in?).   Assuming "some" tariffs remain in place you will still have inflationary pressures.   I still think uncertainty is limiting capital deployment on a macro basis.  What are we missing?

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Posted
43 minutes ago, B00M said:

I think it’s either next week or the week after when we’ll see the 30% drop in activity at US ports. You would think this is priced in but … Is it? 

The myth of the market always being efficient and everything being "priced in" is bullshit. My spidey senses kind of feel like the 2-3 week period in Jan/Feb '20 where Covid was no longer a rumor. Wuhan was locked down on Jan 20th, cruise ships were having a hard time docking etc... I was buying puts like crazy and wondering why the fuck the market was just inching up every day. Finally about a month later (feb 24) the dam broke and the markets starting taking a massive shit, and I had the one and only 6 figure trading month of my life.

My decision was not based on the deaths or the lethality of the 'rona as that was still somewhat unclear in late Jan, but merely the fact that the global supply chain was gonna be proper fucked due to an inability to source product from China due to the shutdowns in manufacturing centers. It took well over 2 years for some lead times to return to normal in the markets I was familiar with (industrial automation hardware like robotics, PLCs, sensors, industrial PCs). Those are the same products that will need to supply all of the factories Trump wants over here in the US and a TON of that shit comes out of China, Singapore and Taiwan. 

I think there are some similarities with the current stresses that will surface with our supply chain today although not  as severe as the covid shock. You can hear it in earnings calls and yet the markets keep creeping up. Algorithms make up 90% of trading these days, and they are gonna do what they do, but I see no evidence to suggest they price in these scenarios. they are too busy bidding up the price of PLTR to a PE of 654.

In any case, I made a good chunk of change on puts in March and April. The last group look like they will expire worthless, but thats why you take profits on the way down. I've been sitting back for the last few weeks, but decided today to jump back in with about 25% of my profits into new puts after the market close today. I'm prepared to dump it all over the course of the next month or two as its house money, so to speak. We haven't solved shit as it relates to tariffs, the guys running the show on our end are fucking morons, prices are going up and layoffs are a coming. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

The myth of the market always being efficient and everything being "priced in" is bullshit. My spidey senses kind of feel like the 2-3 week period in Jan/Feb '20 where Covid was no longer a rumor. Wuhan was locked down on Jan 20th, cruise ships were having a hard time docking etc... I was buying puts like crazy and wondering why the fuck the market was just inching up every day. Finally about a month later (feb 24) the dam broke and the markets starting taking a massive shit, and I had the one and only 6 figure trading month of my life.

My decision was not based on the deaths or the lethality of the 'rona as that was still somewhat unclear in late Jan, but merely the fact that the global supply chain was gonna be proper fucked due to an inability to source product from China due to the shutdowns in manufacturing centers. It took well over 2 years for some lead times to return to normal in the markets I was familiar with (industrial automation hardware like robotics, PLCs, sensors, industrial PCs). Those are the same products that will need to supply all of the factories Trump wants over here in the US and a TON of that shit comes out of China, Singapore and Taiwan. 

I think there are some similarities with the current stresses that will surface with our supply chain today although not  as severe as the covid shock. You can hear it in earnings calls and yet the markets keep creeping up. Algorithms make up 90% of trading these days, and they are gonna do what they do, but I see no evidence to suggest they price in these scenarios. they are too busy bidding up the price of PLTR to a PE of 654.

In any case, I made a good chunk of change on puts in March and April. The last group look like they will expire worthless, but thats why you take profits on the way down. I've been sitting back for the last few weeks, but decided today to jump back in with about 25% of my profits into new puts after the market close today. I'm prepared to dump it all over the course of the next month or two as its house money, so to speak. We haven't solved shit as it relates to tariffs, the guys running the show on our end are fucking morons, prices are going up and layoffs are a coming. 

12345....9999999

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Posted
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

Finally about a month later (feb 24) the dam broke and the markets starting taking a massive shit, and I had the one and only 6 figure trading month of my life.

My decision was not based on the deaths or the lethality of the 'rona as that was still somewhat unclear in late Jan, but merely the fact that the global supply chain was gonna be proper fucked due to an inability to source product from China due to the shutdowns in manufacturing centers.

Damn that was a good day. I remember seeing the container hospitals and going 'yeah, that is gonna cause some problems'. SPY puts and VIX calls. Had all the right positions, sold too early. Pussied out and took the win before I would have had the 6 fig close. Bought a classic car I had been lusting after for a while. Figured if the world is gonna unwind, I might as well buy a convertible. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

I've been sitting back for the last few weeks, but decided today to jump back in with about 25% of my profits into new puts after the market close today.

Seems like after the run of the last two weeks, a pull back is called for. I am sitting on SPY puts as of close today. But they are short dated and will probably expire worthless. Overall strategy is still the same, get into Warren's side car and buy the dividend payers when they present. Some one make sure Warren is bubble wrapped for the next year. 

Posted
 
Something also to bear in mind is that state employment commissions don't estimate job numbers for federal agencies, the railroads (I don't recall the rationale for that), or the post office (weird quasi-federal workers). Everything else, if I'm remembering correctly, is. Also, jobs are only to be counted if they are present during the week of each month that the 12th falls on. Anything that happens after that week is recorded for the following month.

My company laid off 9,000 or so Americans effective April 17, so the numbers for next month will be reflective. Go to any consulting company subreddit and there’s evidence that this is widespread. I know Accenture, Deloitte, BAH, and dozens of others did the same. But we have over 10,000 openings in India.

Thanks for your explanation of what I’m sure is government’s best good faith attempt at measuring employment numbers, but I don’t believe them for a second.

All the WARN act did was make companies reduce headcount in stealth mode.

I’m in Federal markets, and if those job losses were included then we’d have an even more dramatic shitty employment numbers. I’m inclined to not believe a single metric reported by this administration. Our own VP of government affairs, a former chief of staff to the secretary of commerce under a previous administration reported in an internal call this week that job losses at the federal level are in the hundreds of thousands.

Actually, your explanation explains perfectly why the mass firings took place later in the month.

And what about the hordes of contractors who simply had stop work orders?
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Posted
Let me add, [mention=5267]Wulaw Horn[/mention], your not understanding something doesn't make it a conspiracy. In fact, I'd say the majority of this country's problem is people jumping to that kind of conclusion without understanding the basics about what the fuck is actually happening and how shit works.
Instead, uninformed people often seem to prefer making assumptions and acting before they even start to ask questions. Then, they end up fucking around and finding out.

Your experience in the 90s was probably 100% accurate.

That was before.
Posted
14 hours ago, Blotto said:

The myth of the market always being efficient and everything being "priced in" is bullshit.

Everything is priced in. “Everything” includes rational behavior, irrational behavior, understanding, misunderstanding, speculation, cognitive biases, information assymetries, etc. 

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Posted

We are starting to get close to the 200 day moving average. This is what happened in 2022. We dropped 20-22%, then we climbed up to the 200 day and once we got there we headed back down to an October low. In 2018 we did the same but once we hit the 200 day we kept climbing. Let's see what happens this time. Whatever it is, around 570-580 is going to be interesting 

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Posted
22 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Seems like after the run of the last two weeks, a pull back is called for. I am sitting on SPY puts as of close today. But they are short dated and will probably expire worthless. Overall strategy is still the same, get into Warren's side car and buy the dividend payers when they present. Some one make sure Warren is bubble wrapped for the next year. 

about that.....

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/03/berkshire-shareholders-are-stunned-as-buffett-announces-plan-to-step-down.html

Had to happen sometime, I guess. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

Yeah he is going down in history as the greatest investor we've seen.  Unbelievable long view of things and moreover knew when he'd made a mistake and fixed it.  Very interesting to see what happens without him and Charlie Munger around.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Very interesting to see what happens without him and Charlie Munger around.

Same thing as Hughes, Rockefeller, Getty….  It will go on for decades(maybe centuries)and get pieces sold off/added on and eventually wither away.   It’s inevitable.

Posted
On 5/2/2025 at 10:01 AM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Also, I just started buying VUG, which I wasn't familiar with.  It's a tech heavy SPY, currently, more or less. I saw their numbers and historically the returns are off the charts.  I remember reading somewhere that past performance is a guarantee of future results, so we will see. 

 

Current composition at the top:

image.thumb.png.d4e614d7973d9efda4d35d9a8337de41.png

 

Stupid history so far.

image.thumb.png.29e455e52549dfa1f0d1dc53342a9c67.png

As a refugee of the internet bubble of 2001, over-valued tech stocks can have a brutal correction that can take 10 years to break-even. We aren’t anywhere near that level of over-valuation, but it is elevated. As long as you don’t need the money for 5+ years, it’s fine. 

Also, as I’ve posted at least five times before, jobs are the last to go entering a recession. By the time job reports are bad, the market will have dropped significantly and the country will already have been in a recession.  So the real question is how does a job report really help your decision making? Trying to jump out and then back into the market is a rough strategy, unless the market has already dropped so much (40%) that equities are heavily undervalued.

 

 

 

 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

As a refugee of the internet bubble of 2001, over-valued tech stocks can have a brutal correction that can take 10 years to break-even. We aren’t anywhere near that level of over-valuation, but it is elevated. As long as you don’t need the money for 5+ years, it’s fine. 

IMPO Megacap tech weighted index funds are really quite different things than the 01 tech bubble.  Which was also a consumer investor bubble.  I know a few boomer generation trades business owners who stopped trades work for about a year and a half to day trade stocks in 99 to 01.  The 2021 stonk craze was very reminiscent of that period to me.

 


 

 

Posted

I would go with Druckenmiller

 

Spoiler

Stan Druckenmiller ran his hedge fund (Duquesne Capital Management) from 1981 to 2010. During that 30 year period, Duquesne averaged a whopping 30.2% a year before taxes. That means $10,000 invested at the fund’s inception would have culminated into $26.2 million by the time the fund closed! 🤯 

Best of all, Druckenmiller generated these astounding returns without having a single down year. 

Here’s a look at a few of his most notable investments: 

1979 Oil Bet: Shortly after being named portfolio manager for Pittsburgh National Bank at the age of 25, the Shah of Iran went under, which in his view meant the price of oil was going to rise. “So, I go well, this is easy. Let’s put 70% of our money in oil stocks and let’s put 30% in defense stocks and let’s sell all our bonds.” Shortly after, the list of stocks he proposed was up 100% while the S&P was flat. 

1981 Treasury Bet: Right after starting Duquesne, Druckenmiller put 50% of his portfolio into US treasury bonds. At the time, the head of the Federal Reserve Paul Volcker was rapidly raising rates to tame inflation, so US treasury bonds held an interest rate of ~16% (the highest level in American history). This proved prescient: “sure enough, the bonds went up despite a bear market in equities. Right out of the chute I was able to be up 40%.”

1992 British Pound: After a call with his housing analyst in Britain, Druckenmiller began to believe that Britain was going into a recession and they were going to have to lower rates in response. However, at the time, the German Deutsche mark and British Pound were linked together, and Germany didn’t want a repeat of the inflation the country had endured in the past. 

So Druckenmiller began shorting the British Pound on the premise that the Bundesbank’s selling would cause it to devalue. And that’s exactly what happened. Virtually over night, Druckenmiller generated $1 billion in profits for the Quantum Fund, which was managing ~$7 billion at the time.

Lessons from Druckenmiller:

1) Focus on the future

"Never, ever invest in the present. It doesn’t matter what a company’s earning, what they have earned... you have to visualize the situation 18 months from now, and whatever that is, that’s where the price will be.”

2) Learn multiple asset classes

“I was also lucky to travel across asset classes. I traded commodities, currencies, bonds, and equities, and it gave me the discipline, if I didn’t have a good idea in equities, I was happy to have no equities.”

3) Know when to participate

“The mistake I’d say 98% of money managers and individuals make is they feel like they got to be playing in a bunch of stuff. And if you really see it, put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket very carefully."

4) Don't be afraid to bet big

“If there’s one thing I’ve learned from him (George Soros), it’s that when you’re right, and you know something, you really feel it, you can’t have enough.”

5) If you actively invest, make sure it's your passion

"The problem with this business if you're not passionate, it is so invigorating to certain individuals, they're going to work 24/7, and you're competing against them."

Posted
9 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

IMPO Megacap tech weighted index funds are really quite different things than the 01 tech bubble.  Which was also a consumer investor bubble.  I know a few boomer generation trades business owners who stopped trades work for about a year and a half to day trade stocks in 99 to 01.  The 2021 stonk craze was very reminiscent of that period to me.

 


 

 

Which is why I said we aren’t anywhere near that level, but that the tech market is still elevated. 

Posted
5 hours ago, burnt beanz said:

I would go with Druckenmiller

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Stan Druckenmiller ran his hedge fund (Duquesne Capital Management) from 1981 to 2010. During that 30 year period, Duquesne averaged a whopping 30.2% a year before taxes. That means $10,000 invested at the fund’s inception would have culminated into $26.2 million by the time the fund closed! 🤯 

Best of all, Druckenmiller generated these astounding returns without having a single down year. 

Here’s a look at a few of his most notable investments: 

1979 Oil Bet: Shortly after being named portfolio manager for Pittsburgh National Bank at the age of 25, the Shah of Iran went under, which in his view meant the price of oil was going to rise. “So, I go well, this is easy. Let’s put 70% of our money in oil stocks and let’s put 30% in defense stocks and let’s sell all our bonds.” Shortly after, the list of stocks he proposed was up 100% while the S&P was flat. 

1981 Treasury Bet: Right after starting Duquesne, Druckenmiller put 50% of his portfolio into US treasury bonds. At the time, the head of the Federal Reserve Paul Volcker was rapidly raising rates to tame inflation, so US treasury bonds held an interest rate of ~16% (the highest level in American history). This proved prescient: “sure enough, the bonds went up despite a bear market in equities. Right out of the chute I was able to be up 40%.”

1992 British Pound: After a call with his housing analyst in Britain, Druckenmiller began to believe that Britain was going into a recession and they were going to have to lower rates in response. However, at the time, the German Deutsche mark and British Pound were linked together, and Germany didn’t want a repeat of the inflation the country had endured in the past. 

So Druckenmiller began shorting the British Pound on the premise that the Bundesbank’s selling would cause it to devalue. And that’s exactly what happened. Virtually over night, Druckenmiller generated $1 billion in profits for the Quantum Fund, which was managing ~$7 billion at the time.

Lessons from Druckenmiller:

1) Focus on the future

"Never, ever invest in the present. It doesn’t matter what a company’s earning, what they have earned... you have to visualize the situation 18 months from now, and whatever that is, that’s where the price will be.”

2) Learn multiple asset classes

“I was also lucky to travel across asset classes. I traded commodities, currencies, bonds, and equities, and it gave me the discipline, if I didn’t have a good idea in equities, I was happy to have no equities.”

3) Know when to participate

“The mistake I’d say 98% of money managers and individuals make is they feel like they got to be playing in a bunch of stuff. And if you really see it, put all your eggs in one basket and then watch that basket very carefully."

4) Don't be afraid to bet big

“If there’s one thing I’ve learned from him (George Soros), it’s that when you’re right, and you know something, you really feel it, you can’t have enough.”

5) If you actively invest, make sure it's your passion

"The problem with this business if you're not passionate, it is so invigorating to certain individuals, they're going to work 24/7, and you're competing against them."


That’s terrible advice for an individual investor with a day job in my opinion. 99% of people aren’t going to repeatedly beat the market. Better off buying ETF’s and mutual funds every 2 weeks for your career. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Firemans4Horn said:


That’s terrible advice for an individual investor with a day job in my opinion. 99% of people aren’t going to repeatedly beat the market. Better off buying ETF’s and mutual funds every 2 weeks for your career. 

I was just sharing my pick. 30 years without a losing year is incredible.
 

I agree that it’s bad advice for individuals generally, but that’s how you get outsized returns. Buffett has said the some. “Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you’re doing.” 

What percentage know what they’re doing? I think it’s more than just 1% but not 20 or anything. 

Edited by burnt beanz
Posted

I’m going to miss Warren on stage chomping on a dilly bar.

I meant to go back to Omaha this weekend and use my discount to buy an Omega at Borsheim’s.

What’s really impressive about Warren is he was able to successfully manage a throuple. “Warren? Yes, Susan? You’re a hopeless but ungodly rich OCD sweetheart, I’m feeling stifled and moving to San Francisco, but my friend Astrid is coming over to take care of all your needs.” Their kids accepted it, and they even sent Christmas cards together.

  • Haha 1
Posted

I'm shaking my head at any headlines that mention the shocking exit of Warren. One, he says that he's staying on until the end of the year. Second, he's 94. There is no such thing as a shocking exit for anyone that age. It's not even shocking when someone 94 passes away without warning. Finally, he's been grooming successors for a while so it's doubtful there will be meaningful strategic changes, for those that want that continuity.

Posted
26 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm shaking my head at any headlines that mention the shocking exit of Warren. One, he says that he's staying on until the end of the year. Second, he's 94. There is no such thing as a shocking exit for anyone that age. It's not even shocking when someone 94 passes away without warning. Finally, he's been grooming successors for a while so it's doubtful there will be meaningful strategic changes, for those that want that continuity.

He's not going anywhere, IMO it is all window dressing. Warren will continue to be Chairman, go into the office and do what he wants. I'm not complaining, but I think this is meant to ease all those who worry about his age & what happens when he dies (or can't go into the office)

  • Like 1
Posted
21 hours ago, burnt beanz said:

Buffett has said the some. “Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you’re doing.” 

Aye…there’s the rub.

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