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Posted
21 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

I’m not going to put words in your mouth because, but the bolded statement seems poorly reasoned. 
You seem to have assumed that Trump’s campaign rhetoric was hollow, but producers that rely on imports did no such thing, because the risk was too high, and that’s the major cause of the GDP contraction. The DOGE stuff is and will remain a rounding error. 
The threat of new taxes and policy uncertainty are inherently anti-growth and I’m surprised you don’t take them into account. 
 

In other words. If the incoming president says “I’m going to do tarriffs and deport a bunch of skilled construction labor,” he need not do it for the economy to start contracting. 

The narrative shift from, "take everything Trump says with a grain of salt" to "Trump does everything he says" is quite interesting.  Look, as I said above my push back was on the point that tariff liberation day was, in his words, the "triggering action".

Posted

I’m not sure what narrative shift you are talking about, but rational economic actors with a gun to their heads don’t have the luxury of speculation and shouldn’t indulge in it and those who allow their politics to influence their approach to risk management sow the wind.
The chain of causality here is that tarriffs and other policies were promised, and many producers and users hedged accordingly.
 
And by the way, as long as we are talking about “narratives,” you shouldn’t minimize what actually happened in 2017, which was the US losing a really dumb trade war that cost us market share we will never get back among other things. 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

, but rational economic actors with a gun to their heads don’t have the luxury of speculation and shouldn’t indulge in it

Yup, everyone has perfect information and unlimited capital in the fucking text book.  Out here on main street it's a bit different.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Yup, everyone has perfect information and unlimited capital in the fucking text book.  Out here on main street it's a bit different.

Lol, OK.  
In December/January, businesses that depended on finished non perishable imports or capital goods were getting ahead of things that could happen based  on the imperfect information they had at the time, which was the stated, consistent position of the incoming president on how he planned to use the powers of his office in the first hundred days.  That’s what happened. Sorry if Main Street let you down, I guess.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted
4 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Wait.  The market closed the day up!?  What the heck.

Meme stock market right now.  I feel like it’s basically just random day to day based on announcements.  Until the talk is replaced by data at least.

  • Like 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Parliament said:

Wait.  The market closed the day up!?  What the heck.

Yeah. VOO opened down about $12 and ended up. The aftermarket was cooking too. Weird day but there have been a lot of those lately. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

Meme stock market right now.  I feel like it’s basically just random day to day based on announcements.  Until the talk is replaced by data at least.

FEels like we have been in a meme market since at least 2020 and even prior.

Biggest hit, if it comes, will be 3Q imo. But I am just throwing darts and dice. 

SP Futures currently up ~1% to ~5640. 

 

 

Posted (edited)

Political brain damage is getting in the way of some of yall making money in this short term. 

All bets off on the medium run. Can't help you there. 

Long term will probably be fine, but appropriately hedge in case it is not. 

Edited by Anastasis
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Posted
6 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

So the GDP shrinkage was the worst since the last time Trump was in office? 

Ummm…no.  There was the consecutive quarters of negative GDP in 2022 that totally weren’t indicative of a recession for the first time in modern history.  
 

that will be entertaining/obnoxious to re-litigate in about 90 days.

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Ummm…no.  There was the consecutive quarters of negative GDP in 2022 that totally weren’t indicative of a recession for the first time in modern history.  
 

that will be entertaining/obnoxious to re-litigate in about 90 days.

And what, pray tell, was the main trigger for the technical recession in 2022? Because I'm pretty sure it's not COVID affecting us now, and it'll be a while before measles comes back online. Not sure what 2022 has to do with arbitrary tariff policy that is the sole decision of a single man

Edited by Captainant
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Posted
17 minutes ago, Captainant said:

And what, pray tell, was the main trigger for the technical recession in 2022? Because I'm pretty sure it's not COVID affecting us now, and it'll be a while before measles comes back online. Not sure what 2022 has to do with arbitrary tariff policy that is the sole decision of a single man

^^^Triggering intensifies^^^

sorry you don’t like an accurate description of the past.

Posted

So GDP contraction? Who gives a fuck!  To me that is sort of feels how the market is pricing in what's coming.  Basically shrugging off the numbers.  The market also have what, 4 cuts for the Fed priced in right now?  First coming next month!

This is what makes me nervous about starting to truly allocate long. As the optimism against the backdrop of what I see coming simply isn't making a lot of sense, from my perspective.   But Momentum, is the mojo!   But that door can swing both ways unfortunately, I think DOW (the antiquated one) was up a couple hundred this AM before a little pull back.  But good time ahead apparently.

 

Posted
On 5/1/2025 at 1:32 AM, wackawacka said:

everyone pulling earning guidance for the full year tells you how much a dumpster fire Q2 will be

Which company actually pulled guidance though?

From the major companies this week, it's only been Starbucks. And largely because they had already missed on the previous Q.

Reiterated: QCOM, MSFT, META, Caterpillar.

Slightly lowered: Sysco and Hilton.

Raised: Booking.com, Paypal, ADP, VISA. This group is notable because it involves consumer spending, employment, and travel.

Posted
3 hours ago, JGrayDBU said:

Could be wrong thread not sure, but felt so good after meeting with two Fidelity reps today.  I am self-directed, and am retiring from education officially on August 31.  My last day at school was April 8, as my super wonderful principal let me take all of my accumulated days.   My saving grace was probably about 5 factors. 

1. decision to leave Texas, move to rural Alaska to teach SPED in 2018.  First three years got back on the bicycle of investing just the max for the traditional IRA, but then my wife read my mind one evening in early 2021.  "Okay, you can go up north and make the big bucks, but I reserve the right to go live with my sister in Euless."  I smiled and the best three years of my life began in late July 2021.  My appetite was super-strong to save and invest for retirement and it happened, beating my wildest hopes and dreams. 

2. About the same time I moved to above the Arctic Circle, someone on this board suggested I take a look at bogleheads.org.  Thank you whoever you are!!!  I had already received a tip from my principal in southwest Alaska about something new to me called the S and P 500 Index fund.  In Alaska education we have control over our retirement account, because that is all we get.  In Texas, the ERS and TRS recommend a "three-legged stool."  In Alaska, there is only one leg, your retirement savings.  So when I switched future investments from a target date fund to all S and P 500 fund for the last three years in Alaska, it was on, and by on I mean I saved and invested like a man with his hair on fire.  I maxed out a 457b with 100% S and P 500 fund as well. 

3. My investigative curiosity about purchasing service credit began way back in 2012, when I purchased my 6 years of state of Texas service.  I called the IRS in 12, made sure I was doing the purchase correctly, asked for the IRS agent's first name and ID number, put that info in an email to myself and it worked out almost exactly as planned.  Sure enough, about two months after filing the return, here came the mean letter from IRS, claiming I filled out forms wrong.  I pulled up email I sent myself, filled out form with agent's name and ID number, and  sent it back.  2 more months and a 2nd letter from IRS, giving me the nod.  I remembered all of that info. as I planned to buy my out-of-state service from TRS.  I completed the transaction early this spring, and my Alaska retirement account performed so well, I got out of the market in May 2024, knowing I had hit the target.  I beat the target by about $9,000.  I had 96k, and the six years cost me $87,500.  Stayed safe with that money from May 2024 until purchase in February 2025.  Along the way I took a huge portion of my S and P 500 gains and moved them into a 55/45 fund at Trowe.  I was anxious to have money with both Trowe and Fidelity.  I am an index investor with Fidelity for the traditional IRA only.  I will never be a Roth man, as you can see that I purchased 12 years of service credit total.  My Trowe money is down only about 3% since January 21, 2025, which astonishes me.  Very exciting!  

4.  Goal setting.  I had done well with goal setting for my fourth graders in the 2010s at the charter school in south east Dallas, so why not try it in Alaska?  There was plenty of spare time.  I went back and realized my net worth was about 165k when I arrived above the Arctic Circle, so I decided to make a serious goal of doubling that before I left Alaska for good.  I remember exactly where I was in February 2024 when I hit my goal of 330k, but it didn't end there.  it was rolling like a snowball.  After the dust finally settled after the last paycheck in summer 2024, the number was 390k.  Before the correction, buying the years of service, and moving a bunch of money to Trowe I think the number was 450k, not sure.  My goal when I landed above the Arctic Circle was to work in education until age 67.  That number quickly went south as things happened at a crazy good pace.  After two years up there the goal was down to 61, and I am retiring this year at age 60!

5. Research attitude.  I don't know where it all started but I have been researching financial stuff forever.  At some point I started calling both ERS and TRS on a regular basis, to make sure details were the same.  I am retiring from ERS because of the free health insurance premium for me, for life.  Money is the same from both systems.  I started calling once a year, and met some of the nicest people.  Turned out the ERS people were highly trained and more knowledgable.  Then after a while it became once a semester, then more often, etc. until the week the check arrived in Austin from Trowe. I called TRS once a day that week, and they were still nice about it!  It was done! Woohoo!  

I believe there is a message of hope in this, especially if people know somebody who has a strong spender for a wife.  I survived, but it never ends.  I possibly set the world record for years between a full year's IRA contribution, as my last full year of contribution before marriage was probably 1993, and then I resumed once again in 2019.  It can happen! 

S and p five hundred you say? 
(mark cuban note taking gif)

 

have you heard the good word spoken on the stonk thread? 

Posted
4 hours ago, JGrayDBU said:

Could be wrong thread not sure, but felt so good after meeting with two Fidelity reps today.  I am self-directed, and am retiring from education officially on August 31.  My last day at school was April 8, as my super wonderful principal let me take all of my accumulated days.   My saving grace was probably about 5 factors. 

1. decision to leave Texas, move to rural Alaska to teach SPED in 2018.  First three years got back on the bicycle of investing just the max for the traditional IRA, but then my wife read my mind one evening in early 2021.  "Okay, you can go up north and make the big bucks, but I reserve the right to go live with my sister in Euless."  I smiled and the best three years of my life began in late July 2021.  My appetite was super-strong to save and invest for retirement and it happened, beating my wildest hopes and dreams. 

2. About the same time I moved to above the Arctic Circle, someone on this board suggested I take a look at bogleheads.org.  Thank you whoever you are!!!  I had already received a tip from my principal in southwest Alaska about something new to me called the S and P 500 Index fund.  In Alaska education we have control over our retirement account, because that is all we get.  In Texas, the ERS and TRS recommend a "three-legged stool."  In Alaska, there is only one leg, your retirement savings.  So when I switched future investments from a target date fund to all S and P 500 fund for the last three years in Alaska, it was on, and by on I mean I saved and invested like a man with his hair on fire.  I maxed out a 457b with 100% S and P 500 fund as well. 

3. My investigative curiosity about purchasing service credit began way back in 2012, when I purchased my 6 years of state of Texas service.  I called the IRS in 12, made sure I was doing the purchase correctly, asked for the IRS agent's first name and ID number, put that info in an email to myself and it worked out almost exactly as planned.  Sure enough, about two months after filing the return, here came the mean letter from IRS, claiming I filled out forms wrong.  I pulled up email I sent myself, filled out form with agent's name and ID number, and  sent it back.  2 more months and a 2nd letter from IRS, giving me the nod.  I remembered all of that info. as I planned to buy my out-of-state service from TRS.  I completed the transaction early this spring, and my Alaska retirement account performed so well, I got out of the market in May 2024, knowing I had hit the target.  I beat the target by about $9,000.  I had 96k, and the six years cost me $87,500.  Stayed safe with that money from May 2024 until purchase in February 2025.  Along the way I took a huge portion of my S and P 500 gains and moved them into a 55/45 fund at Trowe.  I was anxious to have money with both Trowe and Fidelity.  I am an index investor with Fidelity for the traditional IRA only.  I will never be a Roth man, as you can see that I purchased 12 years of service credit total.  My Trowe money is down only about 3% since January 21, 2025, which astonishes me.  Very exciting!  

4.  Goal setting.  I had done well with goal setting for my fourth graders in the 2010s at the charter school in south east Dallas, so why not try it in Alaska?  There was plenty of spare time.  I went back and realized my net worth was about 165k when I arrived above the Arctic Circle, so I decided to make a serious goal of doubling that before I left Alaska for good.  I remember exactly where I was in February 2024 when I hit my goal of 330k, but it didn't end there.  it was rolling like a snowball.  After the dust finally settled after the last paycheck in summer 2024, the number was 390k.  Before the correction, buying the years of service, and moving a bunch of money to Trowe I think the number was 450k, not sure.  My goal when I landed above the Arctic Circle was to work in education until age 67.  That number quickly went south as things happened at a crazy good pace.  After two years up there the goal was down to 61, and I am retiring this year at age 60!

5. Research attitude.  I don't know where it all started but I have been researching financial stuff forever.  At some point I started calling both ERS and TRS on a regular basis, to make sure details were the same.  I am retiring from ERS because of the free health insurance premium for me, for life.  Money is the same from both systems.  I started calling once a year, and met some of the nicest people.  Turned out the ERS people were highly trained and more knowledgable.  Then after a while it became once a semester, then more often, etc. until the week the check arrived in Austin from Trowe. I called TRS once a day that week, and they were still nice about it!  It was done! Woohoo!  

I believe there is a message of hope in this, especially if people know somebody who has a strong spender for a wife.  I survived, but it never ends.  I possibly set the world record for years between a full year's IRA contribution, as my last full year of contribution before marriage was probably 1993, and then I resumed once again in 2019.  It can happen! 


One part of this story confused me. What was the benefit of buying service credit from TRS?

and did you mean to say that the best 3 years of your life were when you lived north of the arctic circle without your wife?

celebrity perverts GIF
 

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Posted

Congrats JGrayDBU. My wife bought back a few years of ERS for $18k and her retire date is 5 years from yesterday.

She’s gonna have a fun time doing whatever she wants while I still work for 10 years.

I was overweight on NVDA and jumped out north of $114. I’d forgotten that I had a standing sell order for $140 until I got an error message. Replenished my dry powder for later this year.

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Posted
5 hours ago, JGrayDBU said:

Could be wrong thread not sure, but felt so good after meeting with two Fidelity reps today.  I am self-directed, and am retiring from education officially on August 31.  My last day at school was April 8, as my super wonderful principal let me take all of my accumulated days.   My saving grace was probably about 5 factors. 

1. decision to leave Texas, move to rural Alaska to teach SPED in 2018.  First three years got back on the bicycle of investing just the max for the traditional IRA, but then my wife read my mind one evening in early 2021.  "Okay, you can go up north and make the big bucks, but I reserve the right to go live with my sister in Euless."  I smiled and the best three years of my life began in late July 2021.  My appetite was super-strong to save and invest for retirement and it happened, beating my wildest hopes and dreams. 

2. About the same time I moved to above the Arctic Circle, someone on this board suggested I take a look at bogleheads.org.  Thank you whoever you are!!!  I had already received a tip from my principal in southwest Alaska about something new to me called the S and P 500 Index fund.  In Alaska education we have control over our retirement account, because that is all we get.  In Texas, the ERS and TRS recommend a "three-legged stool."  In Alaska, there is only one leg, your retirement savings.  So when I switched future investments from a target date fund to all S and P 500 fund for the last three years in Alaska, it was on, and by on I mean I saved and invested like a man with his hair on fire.  I maxed out a 457b with 100% S and P 500 fund as well. 

3. My investigative curiosity about purchasing service credit began way back in 2012, when I purchased my 6 years of state of Texas service.  I called the IRS in 12, made sure I was doing the purchase correctly, asked for the IRS agent's first name and ID number, put that info in an email to myself and it worked out almost exactly as planned.  Sure enough, about two months after filing the return, here came the mean letter from IRS, claiming I filled out forms wrong.  I pulled up email I sent myself, filled out form with agent's name and ID number, and  sent it back.  2 more months and a 2nd letter from IRS, giving me the nod.  I remembered all of that info. as I planned to buy my out-of-state service from TRS.  I completed the transaction early this spring, and my Alaska retirement account performed so well, I got out of the market in May 2024, knowing I had hit the target.  I beat the target by about $9,000.  I had 96k, and the six years cost me $87,500.  Stayed safe with that money from May 2024 until purchase in February 2025.  Along the way I took a huge portion of my S and P 500 gains and moved them into a 55/45 fund at Trowe.  I was anxious to have money with both Trowe and Fidelity.  I am an index investor with Fidelity for the traditional IRA only.  I will never be a Roth man, as you can see that I purchased 12 years of service credit total.  My Trowe money is down only about 3% since January 21, 2025, which astonishes me.  Very exciting!  

4.  Goal setting.  I had done well with goal setting for my fourth graders in the 2010s at the charter school in south east Dallas, so why not try it in Alaska?  There was plenty of spare time.  I went back and realized my net worth was about 165k when I arrived above the Arctic Circle, so I decided to make a serious goal of doubling that before I left Alaska for good.  I remember exactly where I was in February 2024 when I hit my goal of 330k, but it didn't end there.  it was rolling like a snowball.  After the dust finally settled after the last paycheck in summer 2024, the number was 390k.  Before the correction, buying the years of service, and moving a bunch of money to Trowe I think the number was 450k, not sure.  My goal when I landed above the Arctic Circle was to work in education until age 67.  That number quickly went south as things happened at a crazy good pace.  After two years up there the goal was down to 61, and I am retiring this year at age 60!

5. Research attitude.  I don't know where it all started but I have been researching financial stuff forever.  At some point I started calling both ERS and TRS on a regular basis, to make sure details were the same.  I am retiring from ERS because of the free health insurance premium for me, for life.  Money is the same from both systems.  I started calling once a year, and met some of the nicest people.  Turned out the ERS people were highly trained and more knowledgable.  Then after a while it became once a semester, then more often, etc. until the week the check arrived in Austin from Trowe. I called TRS once a day that week, and they were still nice about it!  It was done! Woohoo!  

I believe there is a message of hope in this, especially if people know somebody who has a strong spender for a wife.  I survived, but it never ends.  I possibly set the world record for years between a full year's IRA contribution, as my last full year of contribution before marriage was probably 1993, and then I resumed once again in 2019.  It can happen! 

That's awesome, Man.  Do the math, but I think you can afford a mistress.

  • Haha 4
Posted
2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Which company actually pulled guidance though?

From the major companies this week, it's only been Starbucks. And largely because they had already missed on the previous Q.

Reiterated: QCOM, MSFT, META, Caterpillar.

Slightly lowered: Sysco and Hilton.

Raised: Booking.com, Paypal, ADP, VISA. This group is notable because it involves consumer spending, employment, and travel.

GM comes to mind.

Posted
1 hour ago, BearSchlong said:

Congrats JGrayDBU. My wife bought back a few years of ERS for $18k and her retire date is 5 years from yesterday.

She’s gonna have a fun time doing whatever she wants while I still work for 10 years.

I was overweight on NVDA and jumped out north of $114. I’d forgotten that I had a standing sell order for $140 until I got an error message. Replenished my dry powder for later this year.

Congrats!  

Posted
45 minutes ago, Captainant said:

[Wulaw]You can never trust those goddamn liars at the jobs report desk! They're all market manipulators trying to hurt my quota!!! They're just gonna revise down in a couple weeks!!!!!![/horn]

And they revised down again 68k jobs last 2 months. 
There were two options before as they did it for 2 solid years under Biden- incompetent or politically motivated. 
same shit every month with Trump so that leaves incompetent. But it’s absolutely a thing that’s been going on for a long ass time. The miss is always the same direction. 

  • Like 1
Posted
9 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Yeah! Get that bolshevism outta here and let's continue to allow the free hand of the market to cook.

Lol the replies are so predictable at this point.  The job market is going to be a trailing indicator for a while.  Services drive the job market as it’s the biggest part of the economy.  My company is still hiring and we’re not going to stop based on vibes.  When the slowdown hits, we’ll not only stop hiring but we will start cutting back.  I don’t think that will be until the third quarter though.

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Posted (edited)

It’s going to be interesting to see if all the sports gear is still available when it’s summer baseball, T-ball, and summer camp - and time to purchase all those things you always assumed we were always available to purchase.

Getouttahere! China doesn’t produce any of that stuff! 

Somebody on Bloomberg a couple days ago made the great point that for many manufacturers the ridiculous creation of American Christmas, where everyone has to give gifts they can’t afford and don’t need to give, is an American institution that produces compressed time period sales that sustains a business throughout the rest of the year.   For many businesses, a severe reduction in Christmas sales means chapter 13 bankruptcy the following year.

By then we might really be in the scenario where we cannot get the G.I. Joe with the kung fu grip because of reduced availability and increased cost.   We will see.   As they say, the market is not the economy and the economy is not the market.  Until it is..

Edited by Gatorubet
  • Haha 1
Posted
14 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

For many businesses, a severe reduction in Christmas sales means chapter 13 bankruptcy the following year.

Novel approach to bankruptcy that businesses would file for the type of bankruptcy known as "wage earners" bankruptcy and is specifically geared for individuals to repay their debts over 3-5 years.

Posted
39 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

It’s going to be interesting to see if all the sports gear is still available when it’s summer baseball, T-ball, and summer camp - and time to purchase all those things you always assumed we were always available to purchase.

Getouttahere! China doesn’t produce any of that stuff! 

America's Pastime depending on cheap Chinese aluminum bats is just a bit too on the nose. 

Posted

Also, I just started buying VUG, which I wasn't familiar with.  It's a tech heavy SPY, currently, more or less. I saw their numbers and historically the returns are off the charts.  I remember reading somewhere that past performance is a guarantee of future results, so we will see. 

 

Current composition at the top:

image.thumb.png.d4e614d7973d9efda4d35d9a8337de41.png

 

Stupid history so far.

image.thumb.png.29e455e52549dfa1f0d1dc53342a9c67.png

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Posted

I should have bought more PLTR - Right now I am upside capped due to my calls for next Friday.  Those $150 May 9th calls I considered yesterday at close would have been wise...   But I am still more on the sidelines at this point.  

Posted
1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Novel approach to bankruptcy that businesses would file for the type of bankruptcy known as "wage earners" bankruptcy and is specifically geared for individuals to repay their debts over 3-5 years.

Correct.  brain fart. Chap 11.  it’s the small business owners, whose personal finances are intrinsically intertwined in their small business who will be filing the 13.   

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Also, I just started buying VUG, which I wasn't familiar with.  It's a tech heavy SPY, currently, more or less. I saw their numbers and historically the returns are off the charts.  I remember reading somewhere that past performance is a guarantee of future results, so we will see. 

 

Current composition at the top:

image.thumb.png.d4e614d7973d9efda4d35d9a8337de41.png

 

Stupid history so far.

image.thumb.png.29e455e52549dfa1f0d1dc53342a9c67.png

 

If you want a tech heavy, large cap ETF, why not buy QQQ? Better historical returns with lower management fees.

image.thumb.png.44a040e73bd7f05a750f8577fc858963.png

 

 

Edited by Blotto
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Posted
3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Futures banging. Assume the jobs report read out was good. 

People who get mad when the markets go down also get mad when markets go up. You get the sense they just get mad whenever. 

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