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Posted
5 hours ago, Doc Daneeka said:

"Not every stall was due to penalties or dumb decisions."

I just typed it, so there may be some holes or scenarios not considered.

 

 

Sarkisian 2023 Grading Expectations


I don't support grade inflation. A "C" is average. Acceptable. Meh. 


A+: National Championship

A: Playoff appearance

A-: Big 12 Championship with bowl win
***

B: Big 12 Championship with bowl loss
***

C+: 2 losses with no Big 12 Championship game [E.g. 2 conference teams with < 2 losses]

C :Big 12 Championship Game

C-: 3 losses with no Big 12 Championship game [E.g. Lose to Alabama and 2 conference teams with < 2 losses]
***

D : 4 losses

F: 5+ losses
 

a Big 12 Championship is at least a B+ in my book regardless of the bowl result.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

Offensive line, defensive line, and QB play for those that need help. 

Don't forget WR...I mean Zay was the best receiver we had and he can't catch a cold.

Posted
4 hours ago, BurntOrange&amp;White said:

10 regular season wins minimum.

That is a potential loss to Bama + 1 conference loss.

Or undefeated in non conference + 2 conference losses.

Either one of those scenarios gets you to the Big 12 championship, the second one obviously is a tougher path depending on how conference play shakes out for everyone. 

Year 3 is the show me year. going 8-4, 9-3 in year 3 is laughable with the talent on the roster now.

  I have seen comments like this for the better part of a decade and I think we've forgotten what championship talent looks like. 30 future NFL players in 05 and we still barely won a championship. We need competent line play on both sides, a running game, a good QB, and some skill players that make plays when its time to make them. This year we had a running game and everything else was mediocre. We were stout against the run but couldn't get to the QB when it really mattered. We had zero big plays in the passing game when we needed them, and none of those dudes were able to turn short balls into long plays. 

  To move forward we have to have a legit pass rush. We have to get better at QB/pass protection, and we have to get more explosive outside. If we can do that we can win the conference and put ourselves in the mix.  

Posted
1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

There's too much variation in how certain results can happen to have such a rigid scale, IMO. I also think the OU result can swing things a little bit. Pretty much everyone can live with this year because of 49-0. If Texas had the exact same record and result, but won in Stillwater instead of Dallas, how would we feel?

Still be a C season, imo. 

If the goal is to win championships, the minimum passing grade at this point puts you in the game to make that happen. If people are happy enough beating OU but not playing for the conference, that’s up to them. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Don't forget WR...I mean Zay was the best receiver we had and he can't catch a cold.

The best thing that ever happened to Zay might be coming from Desoto. Cook is a swaggy/cocky bastard that ain't coming here to play school. Until now nobody here has threatened Zay's position as top dog in that room. If Zay stays he will get pushed to keep the number 1 receiver role as well as the NIL money for best receiver. If Zay is competitive he will step it up to stay on the mountain top. Let's hope "little brother" being on campus pushes him to get better. 

Posted
13 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

  I have seen comments like this for the better part of a decade and I think we've forgotten what championship talent looks like. 30 future NFL players in 05 and we still barely won a championship. We need competent line play on both sides, a running game, a good QB, and some skill players that make plays when its time to make them. This year we had a running game and everything else was mediocre. We were stout against the run but couldn't get to the QB when it really mattered. We had zero big plays in the passing game when we needed them, and none of those dudes were able to turn short balls into long plays. 

  To move forward we have to have a legit pass rush. We have to get better at QB/pass protection, and we have to get more explosive outside. If we can do that we can win the conference and put ourselves in the mix.  

All of what you mention is true. But we also have to have a better head coach. 

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Posted
43 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

a Big 12 Championship is at least a B+ in my book regardless of the bowl result.

That’s fair, imo. I only split the C because, off the top of my head, Texas could conceivably (I think) end 10-2 and out of the conference championship game. I think 10-2 and out would be better than 9-3 and in, the striving for championships notwithstanding, but I could see an argument for flipping the two. 

Posted
1 minute ago, BurntOrange&amp;White said:

All of what you mention is true. But we also have to have a better head coach. 

  I think the battered fan syndrome is getting to all of us. Some of the best coaches there is literally nothing special about them outside of their ability to find talent. We wandered in the desert for a decade because we weren't loading the cupboards like we used to. This is the first time I can say we are getting top recruits since early Mack. Best QB available? Got em. Best running back? Got em. When's the last time we had a 5 star wideout? When the last time we've had a 5 star lineman? Our recruiting was faltering and it showed in the draft and our dwindling NFL presence. Sark seems to be convincing people who can play anywhere they want that they should play here. We can go around in circles about NIL but I am of the opinion that the top kids are gonna go where they get showcased the best. I think if we keep loading up like this winning is inevitable. 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

  I think the battered fan syndrome is getting to all of us. Some of the best coaches there is literally nothing special about them outside of their ability to find talent. We wandered in the desert for a decade because we weren't loading the cupboards like we used to. This is the first time I can say we are getting top recruits since early Mack. Best QB available? Got em. Best running back? Got em. When's the last time we had a 5 star wideout? When the last time we've had a 5 star lineman? Our recruiting was faltering and it showed in the draft and our dwindling NFL presence. Sark seems to be convincing people who can play anywhere they want that they should play here. We can go around in circles about NIL but I am of the opinion that the top kids are gonna go where they get showcased the best. I think if we keep loading up like this winning is inevitable. 

 It only people who could play anywhere, but people who know what’s involved in football as a profession and who don’t need NIL. It might be easy enough to bullshit a lot of recruits. There are some who’d know it was bullshit. 

IMO, this is Simms/Redding 2.0, with even stronger support. We’ll see if Sarkisian can stockpile and win or whether the doomsday people are right. It will just take a little while. 

Edited by Doc Daneeka
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Posted
1 hour ago, DFW Horn said:

Why did CDC concede to the Tyler dwarf and his cronies?

Too much of a diplomat, I guess, but he appeased the money rather than digging in or sticking to his guns. Fund-raising is his first priority, anyway.

OK, so first of all, zero chance that CDC would choose Dykes, especially with his resume at the time. That is revisionist history. Secondly, the meltdown from the fanbase had he actually done it would have been apocalyptic. It would have been Mike Stoops times ten. 

Posted
13 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

OK, so first of all, zero chance that CDC would choose Dykes, especially with his resume at the time. That is revisionist history. Secondly, the meltdown from the fanbase had he actually done it would have been apocalyptic. It would have been Mike Stoops times ten. 

You're exaggerating, bc not many on this board were excited about Sark at the time.

I don't know what the real story is with CDC's choice for HC, but I can't understand how anyone is enthusiastic about 13-12. Just sayin'.

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Posted
17 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

You're exaggerating, bc not many on this board were excited about Sark at the time.

I don't know what the real story is with CDC's choice for HC, but I can't understand how anyone is enthusiastic about 13-12. Just sayin'.

I don’t think anyone is excited about 13-12.

I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to think this board would’ve gone thermonuclear over hiring a guy with this resume:

 

DE95DA56-986D-4D16-9D6B-BC96B8C33B6C.jpeg

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Posted
OK, so first of all, zero chance that CDC would choose Dykes, especially with his resume at the time. That is revisionist history. Secondly, the meltdown from the fanbase had he actually done it would have been apocalyptic. It would have been Mike Stoops times ten. 
Agreed. Dykes may have been on the shortlist, but he was never the fallback if Urban said no...which he did, and led to Sark being hired.
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Thatguy said:

I think the battered fan syndrome is getting to all of us. Some of the best coaches there is literally nothing special about them outside of their ability to find talent.

As a reminder and addition to this point.  Smart is about to play for b2b national titles. 

Smart is far from a good coach.  He was still playing man-2 with cover-grass zones and having his defense swap sides of the field based on strength a few years ago.  He reached out to Todd Orlando to help him modernize his defense. He got humiliated by Tom Herman while having at least a dozen NFLers on his roster. 

But he's really good at using bags to stockpile talent.

Edited by JBJ
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Posted
As a reminder and addition to this point.  Smart is about to play for b2b national titles. 
Smart is far from a good coach.  He was still playing man-2 with cover-grass zones and having his defense swap sides of the field based on strength a few years ago.  He reached out to Todd Orlando to help him modernize his defense. He got humiliated by Tom Herman while having at least a dozen NFLers on his roster. 
But he's really good at using bags to stockpile talent.

Yeah, mf is pretty good at calling timeouts too
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Posted

He’s also got the best offensive and defensive coordinators in the business.  In short, the best of everything that money can buy on and off the field.  That is a program that will do anything to win. 

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Posted

Pretty good article on Dykes and how they got to the MNC/CFP and some on Patterson as well:

“As it turns out, this Friday and Saturday in Texas, Mumme and several members of the Air Raid coaching tree will descend on Waco for their biannual Air Raid convention. A certain TCU football coach was scheduled to speak at the event. He now has a scheduling conflict.

“I guess I’m going to let him off this time,” says Mumme.

No member of the Air Raid coaching tree has led his team to a national championship as a head coach. Of all the times to do it, maybe TCU’s magic ride is the one? Rick Dykes can imagine it now, sitting back on that bus, this time pulling away from SoFi Stadium with a national championship trophy resting between him and his brother.

How the hell did we end up here?

“I know my dad will be up there cracking up,” Rick says. “‘Boys, I can’t believe it either.’”

https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2023/01/05/tcu-sonny-dykes-turnaround-cfp-national-title-game
 

I didn’t know they had an air raid convention but it sounds cool. Meeting in Waco doesn’t sound cool. But I guess it’s this weekend…

Posted
23 hours ago, Thatguy said:

  I have seen comments like this for the better part of a decade and I think we've forgotten what championship talent looks like. 30 future NFL players in 05 and we still barely won a championship. We need competent line play on both sides, a running game, a good QB, and some skill players that make plays when its time to make them. This year we had a running game and everything else was mediocre. We were stout against the run but couldn't get to the QB when it really mattered. We had zero big plays in the passing game when we needed them, and none of those dudes were able to turn short balls into long plays. 

  To move forward we have to have a legit pass rush. We have to get better at QB/pass protection, and we have to get more explosive outside. If we can do that we can win the conference and put ourselves in the mix.  

This is not an unreasonable take. I would add the additional need for Sark to improve in-game adjustments. Also, the DB play was better at the end of the season. Continued improvement and some on field leadership there will be necesarry, too. If these thngs come to be and the wins total does not go up, then we need to look at the quality recruiting we are enjoying and decide if there is someone else who can take that talent higher. I don't think its time for that question, but we can't afford for the recruiting to drop off for two or three seasons. 
We've seen that happen over and over. It puts everything back at square 1. I hate square 1.

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Posted
Pretty good article on Dykes and how they got to the MNC/CFP and some on Patterson as well:
“As it turns out, this Friday and Saturday in Texas, Mumme and several members of the Air Raid coaching tree will descend on Waco for their biannual Air Raid convention. A certain TCU football coach was scheduled to speak at the event. He now has a scheduling conflict.
“I guess I’m going to let him off this time,” says Mumme.
No member of the Air Raid coaching tree has led his team to a national championship as a head coach. Of all the times to do it, maybe TCU’s magic ride is the one? Rick Dykes can imagine it now, sitting back on that bus, this time pulling away from SoFi Stadium with a national championship trophy resting between him and his brother.
How the hell did we end up here?
“I know my dad will be up there cracking up,” Rick says. “‘Boys, I can’t believe it either.’”
https://www.si.com/.amp/college/2023/01/05/tcu-sonny-dykes-turnaround-cfp-national-title-game
 
I didn’t know they had an air raid convention but it sounds cool. Meeting in Waco doesn’t sound cool. But I guess it’s this weekend…

Maybe they like white chicks.
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Posted

Read that Georgia had 73 players who were 4- or 5-star players on the roster the other night. TCU had 13.

Recruiting matters, which is something Sarkisian and his staff appears to be pretty good at so far. I just hope the in-game coaching can ultimately match up to that. I’m ok with where we are after Year 2 with Sark. Check back to see where I am in 24 months. We will have a much better idea then.

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Posted
Read that Georgia had 73 players who were 4- or 5-star players on the roster the other night. TCU had 13.

Recruiting matters, which is something Sarkisian and his staff appears to be pretty good at so far. I just hope the in-game coaching can ultimately match up to that. I’m ok with where we are after Year 2 with Sark. Check back to see where I am in 24 months. We will have a much better idea then.
Once you build your program to the level of a Georgia or Alabama, the rosters you roll out just out talent the other teams in 90% of the games. This is what we did in Macks prime. Mack wasn't some great coach. We just had a ton of talent that decade. But it takes awhile to get to that level. Right now with the lack of talent we have, coaching matters a lot in these close games
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Posted
On 1/5/2023 at 3:59 PM, Doc Daneeka said:

I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to think this board would’ve gone thermonuclear over hiring a guy with this resume:

Doesn't seem all that much different than Strong, Herman, and Sark's resume. Why would we have gone especially thermonuclear? Especially as his Cal teams beat us.

Posted
10 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:
1 hour ago, C-Man said:
Read that Georgia had 73 players who were 4- or 5-star players on the roster the other night. TCU had 13.

Recruiting matters, which is something Sarkisian and his staff appears to be pretty good at so far. I just hope the in-game coaching can ultimately match up to that. I’m ok with where we are after Year 2 with Sark. Check back to see where I am in 24 months. We will have a much better idea then.

Once you build your program to the level of a Georgia or Alabama, the rosters you roll out just out talent the other teams in 90% of the games. This is what we did in Macks prime. Mack wasn't some great coach. We just had a ton of talent that decade. But it takes awhile to get to that level. Right now with the lack of talent we have, coaching matters a lot in these close games

Development also matters a lot in those close games. TCU was a veteran team. That is how those successful mid-level P5 teams go. You try to work your guys hard so by the time they are Seniors you can have a great year. We'll see how the coaching advantage goes when Dykes doesn't have all those guys next year.

Posted
16 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:
1 hour ago, C-Man said:
Read that Georgia had 73 players who were 4- or 5-star players on the roster the other night. TCU had 13.

Recruiting matters, which is something Sarkisian and his staff appears to be pretty good at so far. I just hope the in-game coaching can ultimately match up to that. I’m ok with where we are after Year 2 with Sark. Check back to see where I am in 24 months. We will have a much better idea then.

Once you build your program to the level of a Georgia or Alabama, the rosters you roll out just out talent the other teams in 90% of the games. This is what we did in Macks prime. Mack wasn't some great coach. We just had a ton of talent that decade. But it takes awhile to get to that level. Right now with the lack of talent we have, coaching matters a lot in these close games

Agreed. Weren't all five of our losses 7 points or less. Once we get the talent figured out, I expect Sark to start rolling out 10-win seasons on talent alone. Whether we collect hardware will depend on the coaching. Can he handle that? Guess we'll see.

 

5 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Doesn't seem all that much different than Strong, Herman, and Sark's resume. Why would we have gone especially thermonuclear? Especially as his Cal teams beat us.

Herman had a 13-1 season with a bowl win over FSU and his Cougars stumbled a little the following year, likely because Herman had checked out knowing he was taking the LSU or Texas job. Herman was OC for a national title winner under Urban Meyer at Ohio State. Charlie Strong took the Texas job fresh off 12-1 and 11-2 seasons at Louisville and was DC for two national championship teams at Florida under Meyer.

Correct me if I'm wrong but Dykes, in all his years as a head or assistant coach, has been part of ONE conference championship in his last season as HC at LaTech.

 

3 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Development also matters a lot in those close games. TCU was a veteran team. That is how those successful mid-level P5 teams go. You try to work your guys hard so by the time they are Seniors you can have a great year. We'll see how the coaching advantage goes when Dykes doesn't have all those guys next year.

100% agree. I expect TCU to slip back to an 8-win season at best in 2023.

Posted
20 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Doesn't seem all that much different than Strong, Herman, and Sark's resume. Why would we have gone especially thermonuclear? Especially as his Cal teams beat us.

If you believe otherwise, we’ll just disagree on this point. 

80903F47-385B-466D-9C2C-71066F286E94.jpeg

Posted
2 hours ago, C-Man said:

Read that Georgia had 73 players who were 4- or 5-star players on the roster the other night. TCU had 13.

Recruiting matters, which is something Sarkisian and his staff appears to be pretty good at so far. I just hope the in-game coaching can ultimately match up to that. I’m ok with where we are after Year 2 with Sark. Check back to see where I am in 24 months. We will have a much better idea then.

Same thoughts.  Let it play out for a minimum of 4 years.  Changing coaches every three years is as idiotic as keep rolling out Freshman QBs every year. The Ewers sucks bring on Manning is an odd take at best. 

Posted

I agree there are warning signs with 7ish win Steve, but there is also some evidence for competence, and there is some evidence he can change. Sometimes even coaches that get blown out by Rice in their second season and finish it .500 in conference end up making offensive adjustments and doing OK. Agree with waiting at least until we see what 2023 season looks like before pulling the plug. Not sure I think full four years can be given if we start to enter a death spiral though.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Doc Daneeka said:

If you believe otherwise, we’ll just disagree on this point. 

80903F47-385B-466D-9C2C-71066F286E94.jpeg

Dykes' resume prior to this season was not close to that of Strong or Herman. His HC resume probably wasn't too far off Sark's but Sark had been a top assistant for national title teams at USC and Alabama.

Posted
On 1/4/2023 at 7:31 PM, Doc Daneeka said:

This was my life with fixer 1969 and 1970 GTOs until I just said screw it… “I’m going to fix it up myself” or they priced it as if it were a frame resto. 

I’d kill the guy who screwed up the one I had, but he’s already dead. 

I wonder how perception would change if basically the exact same plays were called but, say, a couple of passes weren’t dropped (offense and defense) and Texas gets out with a close win. “Yay, Ewers and Worthy really are on the same page!” or what. Not that it ultimately matters until those plays start going the right way, anyway. 

And/or a few false starts didn't fuck up crucial drives.

Posted
7 hours ago, Vic Mackey said:

Once you build your program to the level of a Georgia or Alabama, the rosters you roll out just out talent the other teams in 90% of the games. This is what we did in Macks prime. Mack wasn't some great coach. We just had a ton of talent that decade. But it takes awhile to get to that level. Right now with the lack of talent we have, coaching matters a lot in these close games

I get your point, but I’d argue that Mack’s ability to attract, retain, and develop such a talented roster for a decade is exactly what made him a great coach. That’s part of a coach’s skill set - maybe the most important part. 

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Posted
10 hours ago, Vic Mackey said:
12 hours ago, C-Man said:
Read that Georgia had 73 players who were 4- or 5-star players on the roster the other night. TCU had 13.

Recruiting matters, which is something Sarkisian and his staff appears to be pretty good at so far. I just hope the in-game coaching can ultimately match up to that. I’m ok with where we are after Year 2 with Sark. Check back to see where I am in 24 months. We will have a much better idea then.

Once you build your program to the level of a Georgia or Alabama, the rosters you roll out just out talent the other teams in 90% of the games. This is what we did in Macks prime. Mack wasn't some great coach. We just had a ton of talent that decade. But it takes awhile to get to that level. Right now with the lack of talent we have, coaching matters a lot in these close games

Mack won a metric fuck ton of close games, even when we had relatively crap talent.

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Posted
Just now, lilMAC25 said:

Mack won a metric fuck ton of close games, even when we had relatively crap talent.

Yeah. His big issue was getting blown out. He was amazing in close games.

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Posted
32 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Yeah. His big issue was getting blown out. He was amazing in close games.

His ability to calm a kicker before a game winning kick was like augie’s offensive time outs before a Carmichael (or another player’s) bomb. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, troph said:

His ability to calm a kicker before a game winning kick was like augie’s offensive time outs before a Carmichael (or another player’s) bomb. 

Yes and also why his last three teams records (8-5, 9-4, 8-5) do not really reflect how bad those teams were. If the game was close at all, Mack usually found a way to win (sometimes with a little help from the refs in the case of 2012 OSU or 2013 ISU) but most of those losses were total annihilations. Just blowouts all over the place.

Whatever happened to his ability to recruit was lost to him after the national title game. Those teams had very little talent. Mack would somehow find a way to get them to sneak by enough teams to have winning records anyway (well...except for 2010 of course...)

 

 

Edited by Valmy77
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Posted
11 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

Yes and also why his last three teams records (8-5, 9-4, 8-5) do not really reflect how bad those teams were. If the game was close at all, Mack usually found a way to win (sometimes with a little help from the refs in the case of 2012 OSU or 2013 ISU) but most of those losses were total annihilations. Just blowouts all over the place.

Whatever happened to his ability to recruit was lost to him after the national title game. Those teams had very little talent. Mack would somehow find a way to get them to sneak by enough teams to have winning records anyway (well...except for 2010 of course...)

 

 

Yep, Mack's primary issues were with player development and/or creating the pussy/country club atmosphere that creeped in a few times. He won one NC, directly played for another in 2010 and should've been involved in a third in 2009. That he only pulled off two conference championships with all the talent he acquired is nothing short of amazing.

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Posted (edited)

Most CFB coaching hires fail.  Almost all are bets with big unknowns on how they play out.

Sark is no exception.

  • I like the plan to play big boy football a lot.
  • I like the game week preparation a lot.
  • I like the way a fair amount of players seem to have been developed.
  • I like coaches getting hired away for better jobs a lot.
  • I expect next year's OL to maybe be our best since 05-06.

And yet I can see issues with in game management.  Maybe he is having issues balancing calling plays and being head coach.

So some good and some worries too.

We should know a lot more in about 24 months.

It's a good thing Longhorn fans are known for their patience.

Edited by burdine
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Posted
16 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

Whatever happened to his ability to recruit was lost to him after the national title game. Those teams had very little talent. Mack would somehow find a way to get them to sneak by enough teams to have winning records anyway (well...except for 2010 of course...)

 

 

Probably changing the scheme that got him the 2004-2009 success, paired with coordinators who didn't know how to scheme that type of offense and players who weren't fit for it.   Then he started to flail with really lazy evaluations, constant coordinator changes, etc. 

The ultimate "what if" is if, win or lose against Bama, Mack didn't change the offensive philosophy in the 2009-10 offseason and continued to run what won him games and what make Gilbert successful at Lake Travis.  Square pegs into round holes shit. 

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Probably changing the scheme that got him the 2004-2009 success, paired with coordinators who didn't know how to scheme that type of offense and players who weren't fit for it.   Then he started to flail with really lazy evaluations, constant coordinator changes, etc. 

The ultimate "what if" is if, win or lose against Bama, Mack didn't change the offensive philosophy in the 2009-10 offseason and continued to run what won him games and what make Gilbert successful at Lake Travis.  Square pegs into round holes shit. 

Maybe 2010 would have been a game or 2 better, but the OL was shit even in 08 and 09.  With little skill position talent Gilbert was still going to be mediocre even in a spread offense.  The OC/DC turmoil would have still occurred.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, Gene Parmesan said:

Maybe 2010 would have been a game or 2 better, but the OL was shit even in 08 and 09.  With little skill position talent Gilbert was still going to be mediocre even in a spread offense.  The OC/DC turmoil would have still occurred.  

I can't say for sure, what does something look different if we finish 6-6 or 7-5 in 2010 instead of 5-7? 

God damnit Mack should have just retired after that NCG loss.

Posted
Probably changing the scheme that got him the 2004-2009 success, paired with coordinators who didn't know how to scheme that type of offense and players who weren't fit for it.   Then he started to flail with really lazy evaluations, constant coordinator changes, etc. 
The ultimate "what if" is if, win or lose against Bama, Mack didn't change the offensive philosophy in the 2009-10 offseason and continued to run what won him games and what make Gilbert successful at Lake Travis.  Square pegs into round holes shit. 

And he started recruiting lazily and shying away from the “hood players” after all those arrests. I think that armed robbery by Andre Jones was the straw that broke the camels back, lol.

Anyway, it’s unbelievable that our O line will have the most potential since Colt’s freshman year.
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