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2022 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Thread


Hate

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[mention=22]Hate[/mention]...Im not seeing it, what am i missing here boss? As a gulf coast resident, i watch this stuff pretty closely
 
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The model goes out to June 2. The NHC only forecasts 5 days out on that map.
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26 minutes ago, Stella Link said:

Looks like it will be targeting the New Orleans area. 

Get the Dome ready again.  That means MORE evacuees will be coming to Houston.  

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1) right on time. These things, always, always spin up at the beginning of hurricane season in the southern Gulf. One of these is almost always the A or B storm of hurricane season.

2) these never, ever go into Texas, once in a blue moon far south Texas.

 

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Agatha went quickly from TS to C1 overnight in the Pacific.

But - it's going to be an Atlantic hurricane once it passes over Mexico (will devolve, then re-strengthen, and head N/NW).  Likely destination not sure but possibly across the Caribbean into Florida or whatnot.  Chances of a NW turn into TX right now low.

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On 5/24/2022 at 8:26 PM, Hate said:


Euro model for the next week. The Euro has not done a great job with tropical systems over the last couple of years. 

 

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13 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Agatha went quickly from TS to C1 overnight in the Pacific.

But - it's going to be an Atlantic hurricane once it passes over Mexico (will devolve, then re-strengthen, and head N/NW).  Likely destination not sure but possibly across the Caribbean into Florida or whatnot.  Chances of a NW turn into TX right now low.

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guess NW floriduh will know who to blame for that one

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2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Agatha went quickly from TS to C1 overnight in the Pacific.

But - it's going to be an Atlantic hurricane once it passes over Mexico (will devolve, then re-strengthen, and head N/NW).  Likely destination not sure but possibly across the Caribbean into Florida or whatnot.  Chances of a NW turn into TX right now low.

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I'm loving this. It's gonna dump a ton of water on Puebla.

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QUESTION:  Who the Hell names their kid Agatha these days?   Didn't that name die off in the early 1900s??

And why is the hurricane center using it?  Can't they think of any other "A"-names for a hurricane??

(Just my Tuesday after Memorial Day rant)....

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2 minutes ago, Stella Link said:

QUESTION:  Who the Hell names their kid Agatha these days?   Didn't that name die off in the early 1900s??

And why is the hurricane center using it?  Can't they think of any other "A"-names for a hurricane??

(Just my Tuesday after Memorial Day rant)....

I like the name hurricane asshole tbh. 

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

You JUST beat me to the punch, you SOB.

Development dude out lawyering the lawyer. A good day for all.

Might need a beer for that. Well and I hate them. Lived though a few. Never fun. 

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21 minutes ago, Stella Link said:

QUESTION:  Who the Hell names their kid Agatha these days?   Didn't that name die off in the early 1900s??

And why is the hurricane center using it?  Can't they think of any other "A"-names for a hurricane??

(Just my Tuesday after Memorial Day rant)....

GIF by Vulture.com

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QUESTION:  Who the Hell names their kid Agatha these days?   Didn't that name die off in the early 1900s??
And why is the hurricane center using it?  Can't they think of any other "A"-names for a hurricane??
(Just my Tuesday after Memorial Day rant)....

Agatha dissed by a Stella

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

So, saw someone mention this quite long-range possibility for the June 15-20th timeframe....

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That projection has it as a Cat 3.

LONG time out.  But, you know, fuckery for Texas, so seems relevant.

We could set up some odds on location, wind speed, rain fall amounts.  Make storm season a little more interesting.

Edited by Bevo&Pevo
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20 minutes ago, Hate said:

It will sit offshore of Houston and French the city again. It’s been a while since we’ve had a flood.

We’re gonna get Frenched? I hope it buys us dinner first 

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16 minutes ago, Rip76 said:

Haha.

Yeah, no.

 

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Normally I would agree and scoff at a prediction like this. However, in this particular case it is far more likely due to the fact that I have a Golf trip scheduled in Houston that Friday through Sunday.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

Just about all of the models are now "seeing" a possible TS next week.  The Euro, Icon, and GFS all see it as a result of a weak cold front that stalls over Texas before dying in the GOM.  I'd welcome a TS at this point just to experience any kind of weather other than sunny and hot.

 

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Edited by Hate
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18 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

That would be worst case scenario for SATX/ATX. A storm taking that angle would just drag all the remaining moisture out of us and leave us with an even hotter and drier forecast. 

Yep.  The driest part of the state would absolutely scorch under that scenario.  We need a storm to hit just north of S. Padre island on a westward trajectory. 

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The initial models I saw had the system begin about at the border with Mexico and move its way up the coast. We’ll see if the more recent models still show that.

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12 minutes ago, Hate said:

The initial models I saw had the system begin about at the border with Mexico and move its way up the coast. We’ll see if the more recent models still show that.

Find the model that makes the hot and dry parts of the state even hotter and drier, and the wet SE flood like a motherfucker for the 10th time in the past 10 years, and that's the model to bet on.

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We have invest 94L out in the open Atlantic.  Apparently, some models are blowing this up over the next several days.  It's going through almost no wind shear and the sea surface temps are more than enough to support rapid development.  It is worth watching, especially for a June storm.

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