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Texas opens as a 5 point favorite v Oklahoma


TexasMan

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14 minutes ago, TexasMan said:

Updated weather in Dallas for the game. It actually is an advantage for the land thieves to have cooler weather 

 

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Can you tell me more about Texas governor covering the cost of my solar?

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So Texas is probably a 7-8 point favorite if the game were at DKR. 
 

9ish point feels about right. Enough we’re a little nervous in the 4th, but always up 2 possessions. 
 

I’m slightly pissed Daniels didn’t play for Kansas. Good test before Gabriel and now aggys are doing this back up QB asterisk bullshit. 

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6 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Stop worrying about what a band of perennial losers thinks about your team. It’s an ugly look. 

This. I care even more about what Taylor Swift thinks of this team than what a merry band of sheepfucking idiots thinks.

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17 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

So Texas is probably a 7-8 point favorite if the game were at DKR. 
 

9ish point feels about right. Enough we’re a little nervous in the 4th, but always up 2 possessions. 
 

I’m slightly pissed Daniels didn’t play for Kansas. Good test before Gabriel and now aggys are doing this back up QB asterisk bullshit. 

They can asterisk deez nuts. fuck aggy

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1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

So Texas is probably a 7-8 point favorite if the game were at DKR. 
 

9ish point feels about right. Enough we’re a little nervous in the 4th, but always up 2 possessions. 
 

I’m slightly pissed Daniels didn’t play for Kansas. Good test before Gabriel and now aggys are doing this back up QB asterisk bullshit. 

More like -9.5 or -10

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56 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I’m slightly pissed Daniels didn’t play for Kansas. Good test before Gabriel and now aggys are doing this back up QB asterisk bullshit. 

If there's one thing aggy knows, it's what would have happened in a hypothetical match up.

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1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I’m slightly pissed Daniels didn’t play for Kansas. Good test before Gabriel and now aggys are doing this back up QB asterisk bullshit. 

Their stadium proudly displays division titles as conference titles and bullshit national championships from before the AP even existed.  

And their "glory days" in the 80's and early 90's were only mildly glorious and were 100% the result of rampant cheating.

Tell them to shut the fuck up and go farm something.

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12 hours ago, Texasborn91 said:

Gooners had to blow out everyone they could for style points. This is literally the only game they will play vs any team with a pulse. If everyone thought Ou was legit they would be ranked higher than 12. SMU gave them all they could handle. 

Yup and they struggled with SMU. Funny thing is that this is a bad SMU squad. They’re on a rebuild year with a new QB and defense and OU still barely managed to pull away.

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11 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I don’t care about aggy. The asterisk thing is as humorous as it is absurd. 

Wait until you see how Alabama is no longer down and is, in fact, probably the second best team in the country now that Saban has set Millroe straight. 

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2 minutes ago, cochamps said:

I'll take the over on 20 passes for the Horns.

I suspect the plan, such as it is, will be to try to bring the resources to try to keep Brooks from gashing them and see if Ewers can do anything about it. I’ve been wrong before, though. 

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The weekly media slide towards whatever underdog Texas is playing has already begun. It is somewhat comical. 

This morning, Dvoracek predictably was pushing OU as criminally underrated and then started citing the basic stats of scoring offense and scoring defense. 

Following that, Childers and Neuheisel have been singing the praises of the underdog and superhero Dillon Gabriel. 

I assume by the end of the week that, yet again, the underdog against Texas will be the trendy pick on most of the shows. I love it. 

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13 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

The weekly media slide towards whatever underdog Texas is playing has already begun. It is somewhat comical. 

This morning, Dvoracek predictably was pushing OU as criminally underrated and then started citing the basic stats of scoring offense and scoring defense. 

Following that, Childers and Neuheisel have been singing the praises of the underdog and superhero Dillon Gabriel. 

I assume by the end of the week that, yet again, the underdog against Texas will be the trendy pick on most of the shows. I love it. 

Embrace the hate 

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13 hours ago, Longboard Horn said:

Yup and they struggled with SMU. Funny thing is that this is a bad SMU squad. They’re on a rebuild year with a new QB and defense and OU still barely managed to pull away.

Meh. This isn't a "bad" SMU team. The D is actually pretty good as is the OL. Stone doesn't appear to be a very good QB and Lashlee can't call a competent series of plays to save his fucking life. Were those things both not true OU could have fucked around and lost in Norman. As someone mentioned upthread they were outgained in that game.

The two teams OU has played that have P5 talent on the roster - SMU and Cincy - they have failed to score 30 points*. I think this OU team is better than last year's - mainly on D - but the two data points they have for playing a team with a pulse are pretty uninspiring. 

Meanwhile, Texas is already seasoned coming into this game and is better at literally every position on the field than SMU or Cincy. SMU has one DL player that would make Texas' rotation and maybe someone on the OL would be on Texas' two-deep but it is a completely different level of talent. 

The only thing playing in OU's favor this weekend is the history of this game producing weird results. I don't buy that they're going to play harder or more focused or some shit because they got their ass beat last year. In fact, I'd argue 49-0 bodes poorly for them as its going to be the same staffs on the sidelines. See: Stoops winning 5 straight or Mack then winning 4 of 5. Sometimes you just get the other team's number for a few seasons.

*also ISU - but they appear to be a flaming trainwreck this season. I know for a fact SMU has more talent on D than they do - not sure about the Bearcats.

Edited by ztejas
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15 minutes ago, ztejas said:

In fact, I'd argue 49-0 bodes poorly for them as its going to be the same staffs on the sidelines. See: Stoops winning 5 straight or Mack then winning 4 of 5. Sometimes you just get the other team's number for a few seasons.

Yep, this series has always gone in streaks.   Hoping last year was the start of one for us.

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Texas matches up favorably with OU. Our line can get pressure on Gabriel, especially since I don’t think they’ll run it well. If I wanted to poke one major hole in the analytics favoring OU, it’s how they’re overrating Gabriel. His YPA is great so far, but I’m not a believer because he hasn’t done it with a defense putting him in conflict. I also wasn’t a believer in KU’s extremely high third down efficiency, and we saw how that went last week. Schematically, PK knows how to stop a modified Briles offense and has proven it over and over. He can run some cover 2 with tight corners but softer safeties to prevent them from going over the top. He can bring pressure up the middle or confuse the OL with Hill as a free rusher.

Ewers is great in big time games because he doesn’t make a lot of costly turnovers and trusts his playmakers. I think we’ll be able to run the ball well, but if OU sells out to stop it, Quinn will cook. Texas has talent and depth all over the field; while OU has more talent than last season, it’s not comparable to Texas.
 

Give me the Horns 34-24. 

Edited by Sal
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6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Yep, this series has always gone in streaks.   Hoping last year was the start of one for us.

Texas hasn’t won three in a row since the late 90’s. Colt and Vince won two in a row each, but it hasn’t been done since ‘08-‘09. 
 

Texas’ streaks are awfully short. 

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2 minutes ago, Constant said:

Texas hasn’t won three in a row since the late 90’s. Colt and Vince won two in a row each, but it hasn’t been done since ‘08-‘09. 
 

Texas’ streaks are awfully short. 

Not sure how relevant that is.  Stoops, Mangino, Wilson, Riley, etc. are not on OU's sideline anymore.

Texas can lose this game.  But it is unlikely.

And could easily be a three-game streak if OU manages to make the conference title game.

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10 minutes ago, Constant said:

Texas hasn’t won three in a row since the late 90’s. Colt and Vince won two in a row each, but it hasn’t been done since ‘08-‘09. 
 

Texas’ streaks are awfully short. 

Well if you look at the overall history it just means we're due.

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1 minute ago, TexasMan said:

Line is up to 6.5

Over/under is down to 60

I would probably still take the under.  Will be interesting to see where both close.  I heard the same thing CTJ heard this AM.  It does seem like the "nobody is talking about OU, they are playing with house money and have Texas right where they want them" media narrative is starting to take hold.  Wonder if that might push the line back down.

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12 minutes ago, Sal said:

Texas matches up favorably with OU. Our line can get pressure on Gabriel, especially since I don’t think they’ll run it well. If I wanted to poke one major hole in the analytics favoring OU, it’s how they’re overrating Gabriel. His YPA is great so far, but I’m not a believer because he hasn’t done it with a defense putting him in conflict. I also wasn’t a believer in KU’s extremely high third down efficiency, and we saw how that went last week.
 

Schematically, PK knows how to stop a modified Briles offense and has proven it over and over. Ewers is great in big time games because he doesn’t make a lot of costly turnovers and trusts his playmakers. I think we’ll be able to run the ball well, but if OU sells out to stop it, Quinn will cook. Texas has talent and depth all over the field; while OU has more talent than last season, it’s not comparable to Texas.
 

Give me the Horns 34-24. 

The only team with a pulse OU has played is Cinci.  That was a boring 20-6 game.  Cinci ha a decent defense and pedestrian offense that relies heavily on the run (statistically).  OU was dropping 50+ on everyone until that game.  

Rushing Defense:

  • Cinci:  25th
  • TX:  17th
  • OU:  28th

Total Defense

  • Cinci:  39th
  • TX:  17th
  • OU:  30th

Rushing Offense:

  • Cinci:  10th
  • TX:  65th
  • OU:  64th

Passing Offense:

  • Cinci:  43rd
  • TX:  25th
  • OU:  7th

Passing yds allowed:

  • Cinci:  66th
  • TX:  36th
  • OU:  51st

As stated, OU can stack up on a one-dimensional team and sell out (as ATM does), but against a complete team, they are vulnerable and sure and shit they are not going to hold Texas to 20pts in this game

1 minute ago, MotownHorn said:

Hoping JT is healthy enough to play. Whole different offense with him out there.

varsity-blues-give-him-the-shot.gif

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24 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

Not sure how relevant that is.  Stoops, Mangino, Wilson, Riley, etc. are not on OU's sideline anymore.

Texas can lose this game.  But it is unlikely.

And could easily be a three-game streak if OU manages to make the conference title game.

I don’t have a lot of ammunition this year. I have to grasp at my irrelevant straws. 

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4 minutes ago, Constant said:

Texas hasn’t won three in a row since the late 90’s. Colt and Vince won two in a row each, but it hasn’t been done since ‘08-‘09. 
 

Texas’ streaks are awfully short. 

63-50-5

OU still needs a few more streaks, other than the stains in their drawers from last year.

And the winning streaks aren't that disproportionate actually.

Most memorable, or forgettable, was Mack's early 2000s. Beyond that, Texas was knocking off three or four in a row and 5 of 7 etc. The greatest streak arguably being 89 to 92. All were unranked Texas teams beating ranked OU teams.

What doesn't happen much? Lower ranked OU beating higher ranked Texas. That's very rare in the series.

Higher ranked OU won four in a row of late. Even those had two close wins where Texas dominated much of the game and just couldn't finish.

Texas now has great athletes all over, a great defense and has been better and stronger on both sides as the game goes on.

64-50-5 after Saturday.

 

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1 hour ago, Sal said:

while OU has more talent than last season, it’s not comparable to Texas.

UT and OU have the exact same Blue Chip Ratio of 70%. Their average star rating (247 composite) over the last four cycles is actually slightly higher.

Could see an argument that their talent has not actually performed to potential at the level ours has.

However, strictly speaking to on-roster talent per industry rankings, both teams are comparable. 

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16 minutes ago, derpyhorndog said:

However, strictly speaking to on-roster talent per industry rankings, both teams are comparable. 

"Comparable" doesn't mean what you seem to think it does. Any two teams are comparable. Whether the comparison is 1-to-1 or not is debatable. 

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I’m scratching my head. I’ve watched a few previews and you would sware Oklahoma played the Texas schedule and vice versa.  People saying “we don’t know with Texas” but “Oklahoma looks so dominant” like wtf am I missing something. Ima watch some OU games cause maybe I’m missing something and they’re really good. 

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