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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted

https://news.northeastern.edu/2024/07/09/biden-debate-performance-voter-preferences/

 

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/s32r38vj3sct3kkrijoyw/CHIP50-REPORT-105-DEBATE-2024.pdf?rlkey=nq301dg3j6bdqt42o67eo74nb&e=2&dl=0

 

Quote

President Joe Biden’s performance during the first presidential debate has been widely panned, with critics and even those within his own party calling for him to step aside. But the question remained: Would Biden’s shaky performance against former President Donald Trump result in a noticeable dip in the polls for the president?

According to a new report from the Northeastern University-led data project CHIP50, the answer is no.

Led by David Lazer, university distinguished professor of political science and computer science at Northeastern, the report indicates that the debate had little if any impact on people’s voting preference. Lazer hopes the report helps illustrate the dangers of making a mountain out of a molehill when it comes to the media interpreting data.

“Even the New York Times, which is usually better about this, talked about a very tiny shift that was totally insignificant statistically like it was evidence that it was a shift toward Trump after the debate,” Lazer says. “My hope is that reporters look at this and say, ‘Maybe we need to be careful in overinterpreting noise as actual signal.’”

Most political polling inherently has a margin of error that is often ignored, says David Lazer, Northeastern distinguished professor of political science and computer science. Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University

Seeing the dominant narrative coming out of the debate, Lazer and the team at CHIP50 decided to test the hypothesis that Biden had lost ground in public opinion after the debate. Notably, Lazer says, they didn’t survey two different cross-sectional groups of people before and after the debate like most polls. Instead, the team was able to survey the same group of respondents from a survey conducted before the debate.

Lazer says using the same group of people helps make the results more precise, which is important in polling that inherently has a margin of error.

What the report finds is that Biden held on to 94% of the people who said they would support him before the debate. For Trump, 86% of people who said they would support him before the debate said they would do so after the debate. 

“What we see is that there is some churn –– maybe 10 percent or so of people change what they answer –– but that the net result is not a movement away from Biden,” Lazer says. “If anything, it seems that Biden is holding on to his people somewhat better than Trump.”

 

In fact, generally, the shift in support was actually more in Biden’s favor, although Lazer notes it’s not statistically significant and well within the margin of error.

There were very minor shifts between the candidates: 1% of people who said they would vote for Biden before the debate, switched to preferring Trump, while 3% switched from Trump to Biden. Similarly, respondents who said they were unsure who they would vote for before the debate were slightly more likely to switch to preferring Biden after the debate.

“[It all] points in the same direction, which is that it seems unlikely, based on our data, that things shifted toward Trump after the debate,” Lazer says. “If anything, our point estimate is a little more toward Biden, but I wouldn’t make a lot of noise about that.”

There were more significant, but still minor, shifts toward people preferring other third-party candidates after the debate. About 4% of Biden’s supporters and 6% of Trump’s supporters said they would prefer the “Other” category on the survey post-debate. Meanwhile, 6% of those who preferred another candidate before the debate shifted to both Biden and Trump after the debate, resulting in a small net impact.

The relatively stable trend of poll numbers in the 2024 election is indicative to Lazer of how polarizing politics have become where very little will sway voters from their preferred party.

Trump was convicted of a set of felonies,” Lazer says. “The impact it had on surveys was zero. Biden had a debate where most people said it proved he was too old. Survey respondents said, ‘Yeah, I saw that. He’s too old. I’m still voting for him.’ The numbers just aren’t moving.”

Lazer says “the overconfidence we have in seemingly precise statistics” isn’t anything new during an election cycle, but he cautions that the 2024 election is different.

“In this case it’s actually materially affecting decision-making,” Lazer says. “If you make the narrative that things are cratering for Biden, it may affect whether Biden stays in the race. I don’t know if he should stay in the race or not, but decisions should be made on accurate information.”

Just injecting some positivity into the doom, don't mind me

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Posted
15 minutes ago, immamac said:

could you imagine how fucking stupid it was to force the debate issue and do a debate this fucking early in the process? I keep going back to that, it's like the largest unforced error in politics that I can ever remember. 

How much later would you have liked it revealed that he has a problem?  

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Posted
40 minutes ago, Captainant said:

it's just outrageous how trump has a completely different rubric than Biden. He's always been a word salad and rape machine, so I guess that's all honkey dorey now?

As a white male, I can't say for sure, but it's seeming like the Democrats are starting to experience the America my minority friends describe.

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Posted
40 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Counterpoint to all the of "BIDEN IS SO OLD WE GOTTA VOTE FOR TRUMP!!!":

it's just outrageous how trump has a completely different rubric than Biden. He's always been a word salad and rape machine, so I guess that's all honkey dorey now?

You see, Bill Clinton once smoke pot and we needed a hearing about this.   GWB his successor, went to rehab for drug abuse, and his running mate had multiple DUIs but, none of this mattered.  Trump is a criminal, serial conman that likes little girls, married to a eurotrash prostitute, serial liar, and put his kids in office, but we need to investigate if Hunter Biden benefitted from nepotism.   This is Hillary's emails all over again. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

"Biden is old as shit" was already baked in with undecided voters so them seeing that maybe a little more clearly than before just doesn't really change much, especially given his opponent.  At this point I do think Biden's chances of winning have been seriously harmed, but more by the panic within the party than by his actual performance.

This is correct. We’ve never had an election where the public’s opinions of both candidates is so fixed and set in stone. In a normal election a performance like that would have dropped Biden 5-10 points in a week. I was thinking 2-4 points given the dynamic we’ve seen all year, but he’s currently only dropped 1.8 points in the RCP average from the day of the debate. It’s what’s giving him a real argument to stay in. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

As a white male, I can't say for sure, but it's seeming like the Democrats are starting to experience the America my minority friends describe.

Democratic Party members have always been held to a higher standard from their constituents.   Republicans have no standards so there is no bar to clear.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

"Biden is old as shit" was already baked in with undecided voters so them seeing that maybe a little more clearly than before just doesn't really change much, especially given his opponent.  At this point I do think Biden's chances of winning have been seriously harmed, but more by the panic within the party than by his actual performance.

Yep. We're just seeing elected Democrats come around tot he position that 65% of American voters or whatever it is have consistently held for the entire election cycle, in real time. Biden is mortally wounded now but it has been the debate fallout that did it, not the debate itself.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

PredictIt odds are at $.25 for Biden and $.19 for Harris ($.61 for Trump).  

These are the POTUS prices.  D nominee is at 48 cents, down 12 on the day.

image.thumb.png.8ecc102b03a7623be765726676a2d59d.png

Posted
33 minutes ago, immamac said:

could you imagine how fucking stupid it was to force the debate issue and do a debate this fucking early in the process? I keep going back to that, it's like the largest unforced error in politics that I can ever remember. 

Actually, it could be a blessing if this forces Joe from the race then there is at least a little time to ramp up and appoint a new nominee. Also, if Joe remains the candidate, he has more time to “rehab” his public image and have appearances that make Debate #1 seem more like an outlier.

Posted
9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

"Biden is old as shit" was already baked in with undecided voters so them seeing that maybe a little more clearly than before just doesn't really change much, especially given his opponent.  At this point I do think Biden's chances of winning have been seriously harmed, but more by the panic within the party than by his actual performance.

I disagree.  There's "Dumbledore" old and there's "nursing home" old.  There's a big difference in electability between the two, and I think a lot of folks moved Biden from one to the other after the debate.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

"Biden is old as shit" was already baked in with undecided voters so them seeing that maybe a little more clearly than before just doesn't really change much, especially given his opponent.  At this point I do think Biden's chances of winning have been seriously harmed, but more by the panic within the party than by his actual performance.

Thankfully there are enough of us who would rather have a catatonic Biden with an outstanding cabinet running this country on auto-pilot for four more years than the all-but-certain chaos and fascism that’s on the horizon with another Trump Admininstration.

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Posted
Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

I disagree.  There's "Dumbledore" old and there's "nursing home" old.  There's a big difference in electability between the two, and I think a lot of folks moved Biden from one to the other after the debate.

Except we have evidence that they didn't:

 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Also, if Joe remains the candidate, he has more time to “rehab” his public image and have appearances that make Debate #1 seem more like an outlier.

That's the hard part though. He is what he is at this point. How do you make people forget that he's 81 years old and a lot of the time looks and acts 91?

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Posted
4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Yep. We're just seeing elected Democrats come around tot he position that 65% of American voters or whatever it is have consistently held for the entire election cycle, in real time. Biden is mortally wounded now but it has been the debate fallout that did it, not the debate itself.

Agree, Democrats need to stop drip-feeding “well maybe we DO replace him” to the press and get to work. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Agree, Democrats need to stop drip-feeding “well maybe we DO replace him” to the press and get to work. 

Man, sometimes there are things you just can't come back from. Like Kramer doing stand-up. 

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, immamac said:

could you imagine how fucking stupid it was to force the debate issue and do a debate this fucking early in the process? I keep going back to that, it's like the largest unforced error in politics that I can ever remember. 

IMO, which means dick, I think they saw the decline and were hoping an early debate where he didn’t look like the grim reaper would put the age issue to bed long enough for Trumps trials to take center stage.

Because of Trumps puppet judge in S Florida and the upstanding 6 justices on the Supreme Court, half their plan became toast.

Then Biden went out there and toasted the other half.

If he steps down, however, then it could be serendipitous bc if he did this in September or October then the race would be a lost cause.

Simulation gunna simulate.

Edited by Dnaguy
Posted

Holy fuck, stop with it was the meltdown, not the debate that is the crisis.

if elected, Biden has to govern for four more years. It’s clear he cannot. Which means we are functionally being asked to vote for Harris. But folks don’t like that.

 As an intellectual argument that’s both flawed, and kinda misogynist. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

@bolverk @wildcat09

the evidence shows thelma and louise are actually HIGHER than the cliff!  all is well!

If you drive off a cliff, is it better to stay in the car or jump out? -  Quora

The thing is that I've thought since it was clear he was going to be their nominee again that Trump would have a very good chance of winning. What I've been arguing since the debate isn't that Trump can't win (because I've always thought he had a good chance), but simply that Biden's debate performance didn't actually substantially change the game. It's just that you and many others didn't want to think Trump had a chance so you convinced yourselves that he didn't and Biden's debate performance was a real wake up kick in the balls.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Holy fuck, stop with it was the meltdown, not the debate that is the crisis.

if elected, Biden has to govern for four more years. It’s clear he cannot. Which means we are functionally being asked to vote for Harris. But folks don’t like that.

 As an intellectual argument that’s both flawed, and kinda misogynist. 

I've said that I'd be fine with Harris at the top of the ticket. It's the people openly masturbating about some new blitz primary who are dismissing her for racist and misogynistic reasons. 

Posted

Biden to give unedited interview to Lester Holt here in Austin on Monday after his talk at LBJ.  Don't know if it's at LBJ with a film crew or done at NBC studio affiliate-KXAN.  I guess we'll know by the road closures.  Sure hope he sticks his landing.  I would think doing it at LBJ would be grandiose and remind people of what he's done to help advance Civil Rights over his last four years.  But it may also make him look like a relic, being that he's over 20 years older than the legislation he's here to celebrate.  I dunno with this fucking simulation.  They'll probably end up having it at Amy's Ice Cream.

Posted
5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The thing is that I've thought since it was clear he was going to be their nominee again that Trump would have a very good chance of winning. What I've been arguing since the debate isn't that Trump can't win (because I've always thought he had a good chance), but simply that Biden's debate performance didn't actually substantially change the game. It's just that you and many others didn't want to think Trump had a chance so you convinced yourselves that he didn't and Biden's debate performance was a real wake up kick in the balls.  

I always thought Trump had a puncher's chance. Now I think he's a shoo-in without something substantial happening.

Posted

This isn't about a "debate performance." It's about a fundamental and permanent change in how the majority of Americans (supporters, neutrals, and opponents) perceive Joe Biden. It's not fixable, and it will not get better over time.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I always thought Trump had a puncher's chance. Now I think he's a shoo-in without something substantial happening.

I don't disagree, because American mainstream media has fixated on whether or not Biden will withdraw from the race (to the point they're entirely ignoring actual news that Trump is a goddamned pedophile).  It sure seems to be self-perpetuating at this point.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Biden to give unedited interview to Lester Holt here in Austin on Monday after his talk at LBJ.  Don't know if it's at LBJ with a film crew or done at NBC studio affiliate-KXAN.  I guess we'll know by the road closures.  Sure hope he sticks his landing.  I would think doing it at LBJ would be grandiose and remind people of what he's done to help advance Civil Rights over his last four years.  But it may also make him look like a relic, being that he's over 20 years older than the legislation he's here to celebrate.  I dunno with this fucking simulation.  They'll probably end up having it at Amy's Ice Cream.

 

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

LBJ usually bodes poorly for an incumbent president

Would be kind of nuts if he mirrors LBJ and says that he won’t seek the nomination.

My guess is he won’t…. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

It will only be an unforced error if Biden remains the nominee.  It may not be likely, but it is possible the decision-makers forced it early to expose Biden with enough time to make a change.

Dude

Posted
14 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Holy fuck, stop with it was the meltdown, not the debate that is the crisis.

if elected, Biden has to govern for four more years. It’s clear he cannot. Which means we are functionally being asked to vote for Harris. But folks don’t like that.

 As an intellectual argument that’s both flawed, and kinda misogynist. 

Not really. All that needs to happen this November is that Trump loses. Biden could win the election on 11/5 and drop dead on 11/6 and the crisis will be mostly averted, or the proverbial can will be kicked down the road four years. Kamala would become the immediate acting president and would be officially sworn in a few days later. She will then have four years and decide to run for re-election in 2028. With any luck, Dotard will be dead by then.

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Posted
34 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

"Biden is old as shit" was already baked in with undecided voters so them seeing that maybe a little more clearly than before just doesn't really change much, especially given his opponent.  At this point I do think Biden's chances of winning have been seriously harmed, but more by the panic within the party than by his actual performance.

No way we are gonna fall for the old Hillary’s emails in a tailpipe trick again. This is why Elon purchased Twitter. The really shitty thing is seeing the times and cnn partake. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I don't disagree, because American mainstream media has fixated on whether or not Biden will withdraw from the race (to the point they're entirely ignoring actual news that Trump is a goddamned pedophile).  It sure seems to be self-perpetuating at this point.


And here is the off-ramp for Biden IMO.

He can say he’s up to it.

He can say that he thinks he’s the best person for the job even though he’s lost a step.

But he can’t deny that his age has become the focus of the election and it should be on defeating Trump. Therefore, he’s leaving the race so that a person without his liability can prosecute that case.

He looks unselfish and stately. Not necessarily on his terms but he can go out there and campaign (with a teleprompter please) as hard as his body lets him or, you know, do the presidenting that his 80 some old body / brain lets him. Still a lot of shot going wrong that could use his attention.

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Posted
1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

I don't disagree, because American mainstream media has fixated on whether or not Biden will withdraw from the race (to the point they're entirely ignoring actual news that Trump is a goddamned pedophile).  It sure seems to be self-perpetuating at this point.

They're not ignoring Trump because of Biden. Trump is Teflon at this point. That's been a constant for years. The media running with their umpteenth billionth speculative "Trump did something bad, you guys" isn't going to move the needle. Trump being lambasted and ridiculed nightly on every talk show for 9 years doesn't move the needle. A court conviction didn't move the needle. I'm not sure raw video of crimes being committed would move the needle (but I'd like to find out). The people you want to hear this aren't tuning into CNN anyway. 

Also, blaming the media for covering the disaster of the debate and its aftermath is silly. This is on the White House.

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Posted
19 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

This isn't about a "debate performance." It's about a fundamental and permanent change in how the majority of Americans (supporters, neutrals, and opponents) perceive Joe Biden. It's not fixable, and it will not get better over time.

I once thought that about Jan. 6. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Counterpoint to all the of "BIDEN IS SO OLD WE GOTTA VOTE FOR TRUMP!!!":

it's just outrageous how trump has a completely different rubric than Biden. He's always been a word salad and rape machine, so I guess that's all honkey dorey now?

Trump does one thing well.  Destroy what he touches.  The base and machine behind him don't care about his BS not because they are stupid.  Its because they are people who look at someone like Timothy McVeigh and think, "Well, he's got a point."  Trump has more than exceeded their wildest expectations as a hatchet man for the government.  They are not looking for the level headed stewardship of a wise man.  They want the destructiveness of a petulant and entitled child that has been denied their desires and who has been infused with the power of the Presidency.

Anyone not wanting that is scared shitless looking at the decrepit old man being trotted out to stop it.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Goredho said:

Trump does one thing well.  Destroy what he touches.  The base and machine behind him don't care about his BS not because they are stupid.  Its because they are people who look at someone like Timothy McVeigh and think, "Well, he's got a point."  Trump has more than exceeded their wildest expectations as a hatchet man for the government.  They are not looking for the level headed stewardship of a wise man.  They want the destructiveness of a petulant and entitled child that has been denied their desires and who has been infused with the power of the Presidency.

Anyone not wanting that is scared shitless looking at the decrepit old man being trotted out to stop it.

Remember that accusation in the summer of 2020 that Biden had groped a woman? It turned out to be bullshit, but if that had been true, he would have been toast. Off the ticket. 

If tomorrow someone credibly accuses Trump of groping her? Republicans:

af9bc329794fa6666519d4d02ed76b81.gif

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Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Counterpoint to all the of "BIDEN IS SO OLD WE GOTTA VOTE FOR TRUMP!!!":

it's just outrageous how trump has a completely different rubric than Biden. He's always been a word salad and rape machine, so I guess that's all honkey dorey now?

His party supports him unconditionally. Democrats meanwhile just can't help but nitpick and undermine just hoping and praying that those mythical undecided centrists who just need a little push will support them. It's fucking asinine. 

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Posted (edited)

Repubs decided to enter the mess. Which was inevitable. Joining the circular firing squad. 

“house oversight committee subpoenas WH aides over Biden’s health.”

Lewis Rothschild : Say what you want. It's always the guy in my job that ends up doing 18 months in Danbury minimum security prison.

 

Biden is going to give a major news conference tomorrow. Also breaking news. 

Edited by Nicole44
Posted
5 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Biden is going to give a major news conference tomorrow. Also breaking news. 

Is this not the, sigh, "big boy" one?

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Posted
Just now, Red Five said:

Is this not the, sigh, "big boy" one?

No idea. 🤷 probably. I mean the stuff he has going this week has been planned for some time. Situation is very fluid. I guess. So unless it’s an additional presser probably? It would be odd to announce while NATO is here to say he’s stepping aside and not running. If it is an additional presser I fear it’s doubling down. As the division causes the party to collapse. For someone who saved the country from Trump to then hand it right back to Trump along with Congress and a stacked Supreme Court Biden’s legacy will not be treated kindly 

it started with his decision to run again. He faced little opposition to that.  And had he stuck with what he’d said prior to the 2020 election that he’s just there to be a placeholder and to pass the torch We aren’t screwed like this.

Posted
Just now, Nicole44 said:

No idea. 🤷 probably. I mean the stuff he has going this week has been planned for some time. Situation is very fluid. I guess. So unless it’s an additional presser probably? It would be odd to announce while NATO is here to say he’s stepping aside and not running. If it is an additional presser I fear it’s doubling down. As the division causes the party to collapse. For someone who saved the country from Trump to then hand it right back to Trump along with Congress and a stacked Supreme Court Biden’s legacy will not be treated kindly 

it started with his decision to run again. He faced little opposition to that.  And had he stuck with what he’d said prior to the 2020 election that he’s just there to be a placeholder and to pass the torch We aren’t screwed like this.

Interesting. Since Joe will be in Austin on Monday, I wonder if you'll be hearing from the secret service. 

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

No idea. 🤷 probably. I mean the stuff he has going this week has been planned for some time. Situation is very fluid. I guess. So unless it’s an additional presser probably? It would be odd to announce while NATO is here to say he’s stepping aside and not running. If it is an additional presser I fear it’s doubling down. As the division causes the party to collapse. For someone who saved the country from Trump to then hand it right back to Trump along with Congress and a stacked Supreme Court Biden’s legacy will not be treated kindly 

it started with his decision to run again. He faced little opposition to that.  And had he stuck with what he’d said prior to the 2020 election that he’s just there to be a placeholder and to pass the torch We aren’t screwed like this.

 

7 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Interesting. Since Joe will be in Austin on Monday, I wonder if you'll be hearing from the secret service. 

Don't you dare forget about our deal, @Nicole44

giphy-downsized.gif

Posted
18 hours ago, bolverk said:

Now picture Trump as the Night King and MAGA as the white walkers.

Whites with walkers? Shit, that's been his demographic all along...

Eight old women sit in front of a senior residence with their rollators /  wheeled walkers / walking aid in front of them Stock Photo - Alamy

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Goredho said:

 

Don't you dare forget about our deal, @Nicole44

giphy-downsized.gif

It’s a challenge for sure. With the secret service.
Who’s with me?

Just kidding omg. 

I don’t see any other way out other than him stepping aside. Bc if the Dems in Congress are divided their constituents are divided. If he is forced out the delegates and those they represent will be angry and dismayed. The average person isn’t watching all this shit and posting about it, they may feel disenfranchised and just not vote. If he steps down but says it’s for the future of party and country it will open it up for Kamala. I do think an open convention at that point would be dead. Just roll with her. Close ranks and get excited about her and whomever she chooses as a running mate. 



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