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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
50 minutes ago, dcbc said:

A fine young man???

Only a Lad

 

Always loved this song--and the lyrics fit so well here. 

He didn't want to learn things---he liked to burn things. 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I don’t see how it could be bullshit. Yeah he won’t win young people by 20 points but I could definitely see 10 or so. That picture sealed everything for him because people are dumb and easily swayed

10 would be insane.
As someone referred to upthread, even a poll that is valid and has a low margin of error in the aggregate can produce very weird and misleading results in the cross tabs. I’m not a “polls are wrong” guy, but I am a “polling is difficult” guy, and it’s a mistake to look at outlier crosstab results and take anything from it other than an indication that something deserves further study. 

Posted
11 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:


 

 

I listen to that podcast when I want to feel like a terrible person. It’s like sitting around Les Amis patio back in the day, smoking cigarettes and talking shit with the skinniest, bitchiest art history grad students in town. 

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Posted
25 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I mean you can talk about polling errors and stuff all you want, no one is erasing a 19 point lead in 3 months. It’s about what I figured once Biden stepped down. 

I like how Helobious is leaning into the schtick now.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Red Five said:

I guess you have to admire the commitment to the bit, as weird as it is. Like did he wake up one morning and go "I want my internet persona to be known for being wrong all the time." 

It's not enough to be wrong, it has to be in the most publicly idiotic fashion possible.

Posted
16 minutes ago, Helobious said:

 

I don’t see how it could be bullshit. Yeah he won’t win young people by 20 points but I could definitely see 10 or so. That picture sealed everything for him because people are dumb and easily swayed. 

That picture is already old news. Politics moves fast and Americans are always ready to move to the next story. Is anyone even talking about that anymore?

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Not to mention he and Harris have already worked together on marijuana legalization

aHR0cHM6Ly9naWVjZG4uYmxvYi5jb3JlLndpbmRv

Look, I'm not gonna pretend I know who she should pick.  But I do know that I will not send idly by and let Fat Joes leadership on this matter go unnoticed.  

 

Edited by Post Oak
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Posted
1 minute ago, SubliminalHorn said:

That picture is already old news. Politics moves fast and Americans are always ready to move to the next story. Is anyone even talking about that anymore?

I don't even know the reference and I've been paying attention since Saturday.

Posted
1 minute ago, Post Oak said:

Look, I'm not gonna pretend I know who she should pick.  But I do know that I will not send idly by and let Fat Joes leadership on this matter go unnoticed.  

 

Ready for war, Joe- how you wanna blow they spot?

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Look, I'm not gonna pretend I know who she should pick.  But I do know that I will not send idly by and let Fat Joes leadership on this matter go unnoticed.  

 

FYI.  He left Atlantic.

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Posted
8 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

That picture is already old news. Politics moves fast and Americans are always ready to move to the next story. Is anyone even talking about that anymore?

 

What a weird timeline. Remember that time someone tried to assassinate a former president? Not really.

Posted
31 minutes ago, Helobious said:

 

I don’t see how it could be bullshit. Yeah he won’t win young people by 20 points but I could definitely see 10 or so. That picture sealed everything for him because people are dumb and easily swayed. 

You could see Trump winning young people by 10 or more?  You really are a fucking idiot.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Hank_Hill said:

Do we even make the top 25 most dangerous borders? Always out here overrating Texas in the preseason smh.

49978633-10158475-image-a-11_16358933588

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Posted
33 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I don’t see how it could be bullshit. Yeah he won’t win young people by 20 points but I could definitely see 10 or so.

Even in Collie Station, Trump will not win young people by 10 points or more.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

That picture is already old news. Politics moves fast and Americans are always ready to move to the next story. Is anyone even talking about that anymore?

I think the assassination attempt probably brought back a small amount of staying home Republican apathetic voters, and pulled a few "libertarians" off the RFK train. But, yeah, not a single person voting for Trump because of that picture was EVER going to vote for Biden or Harris. 

My because concern remaining is how many of RFKjr's ~8% come home to Trump if (once) he drops out and endorses Donald vs. how many stick to their guns and still vote 3rd party out of protest.

Posted

I think worrying about the single issue “Free Palestine” voters is a mistake. Many if not most will eventually vote dem considering the alternative, and if not, there is no changing their mind because no American politician can win a national election with a “Free Palestine” position. Biden has criticized Netanyahu and called for a cease fire. Pretty sure Harris will continue that position. Shapiro has criticized Netanyahu and if he hasn’t been pro cease fire yet he’ll either support Harris’ position, or at least won’t contradict her on the campaign trail. PA is a must win and if he gets it, it’s a good pick. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Is the argument against Pete for VP that too many people won't go for a black woman and a gay man? Are there any others? 

That's pretty much it. But sadly, it's a valid argument. Pete was born about 25 years too early. 

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Posted
42 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I guess you have to admire the commitment to the bit, as weird as it is. Like did he wake up one morning and go "I want my internet persona to be known for being wrong all the time." 

I don’t know who has the worse bit—him or Icono

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Posted
Just now, NorthLoop said:

That's pretty much it. But sadly, it's a valid argument. Pete was born about 25 years too early. 

He’s young. I’m not worried 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Is the argument against Pete for VP that too many people won't go for a black woman and a gay man? Are there any others? 

This is 99% of it.  Blacks won’t turn out nearly as much for a ticket with a gay white dude on it.  But also, Pete (who I think is potentially a legit genius, and at minimum the most gifted communicator I have ever seen) lacks the kind of governing experience typical of a POTUS/VP candidate.  He’s never served in congress, he’s never been a governor, and he doesn’t have experience in an executive authority role in a large organization; being in the cabinet made it MUCH more reasonable to justify him on the ticket, but it would be loads better if he had been a governor or senator by now.  But yeah, it’s the gay thing.

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Posted
Just now, wildcat09 said:

Pete only appeals to a very narrow slice of the electorate 

Is this true though? I'd think he has pretty broad appeal. Doesn't he even have the begrudging respect of Fox viewers, for his years of slicing and dicing idiots on there?

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Is the argument against Pete for VP that too many people won't go for a black woman and a gay man? Are there any others? 

I think that's most of the reason.  But if we're looking solely at the electorate map, I guess you can also argue that Indiana really isn't in play, so a VP candidate from another crucial swing state that is winnable for the Dems, like PA, is more important.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Pete only appeals to a very narrow slice of the electorate and they're already guaranteed to vote for the ticket regardless of who is on it.

This

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Posted
2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Pete only appeals to a very narrow slice of the electorate and they're already guaranteed to vote for the ticket regardless of who is on it.

Well, that's not true. There are independents and classic Republicans and small town people that like him. The dude won IOWA as a nobody. 

That said, he's better suited as a surrogate in this election. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Is this true though? I'd think he has pretty broad appeal. Doesn't he even have the begrudging respect of Fox viewers, for his years of slicing and dicing idiots on there?

No, man.  Why would their viewership respect him for telling them what they don't want to hear? They just forget what he said and remember that they hate the gay guy.

Pete appeals to literally two types of people: (1) grandmas who love what a nice respectful and high achiever boy he is and who want to pinch his cheeks, and (2) liberal political perverts who love to watch him dunk on bad Republican arguments.  The second happens to be most of the posters on this board, but we're very fucking far from the average undecided American voter.   

Edited by wildcat09
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Posted
1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

* poll of men standing around at Hoffpauir’s in Lampasas at 230pm on a Monday afternoon. 

If this is in any way accurate then Trump wins in a landslide of historic proportions.

Here's how that group (listed as 18-29; don't know why Quinnipac used 18-34) voted in the recent elections:

2012: Obama +23

2016: Hillabeast +30 (that demo only represented 13% of the electorate; the 50+ age groups represented 56% of the electorate and Trump won that demo handily).

2020: Biden +26

2022 midterms: Democrats +37

So this is either a typo, the worst sampling error of all time, or the greatest demographic shift of all time.. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Well, that's not true. There are independents and classic Republicans and small town people that like him. The dude won IOWA as a nobody. 

That said, he's better suited as a surrogate in this election. 

He didn't win Iowa, he won Iowa's Democratic presidential caucus. This is like saying Bernie is popular in Pennsylvania because he won the primary there in 2016 (but even less accurate, because at least that was a primary).

Edited by wildcat09
Posted
1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Combined, those figures blow away rocketboi's pledge.  What he actually donates is going to be much lower.

Elon will say anything to get attention.  His words<>his actions.  Oh I'm sure he's just donating advertising on X...  you know $45m worth.  

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

This is 99% of it.  Blacks won’t turn out nearly as much for a ticket with a gay white dude on it.  But also, Pete (who I think is potentially a legit genius, and at minimum the most gifted communicator I have ever seen) lacks the kind of governing experience typical of a POTUS/VP candidate.  He’s never served in congress, he’s never been a governor, and he doesn’t have experience in an executive authority role in a large organization; being in the cabinet made it MUCH more reasonable to justify him on the ticket, but it would be loads better if he had been a governor or senator by now.  But yeah, it’s the gay thing.

Buy a condo in Scottsdale

Declare Az his home state. 

Have Hobbs appoint him to fill Kelly's Senate seat when he becomes VP

Profit. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

If this is in any way accurate then Trump wins in a landslide of historic proportions.

Here's how that group (listed as 18-29; don't know why Quinnipac used 18-34) voted in the recent elections:

2012: Obama +23

2016: Hillabeast +30 (that demo only represented 13% of the electorate; the 50+ age groups represented 56% of the electorate and Trump won that demo handily).

2020: Biden +26

2022 midterms: Democrats +37

So this is either a typo, the worst sampling error of all time, or the greatest demographic shift of all time.. 

It was taken last week, when Kamala as a candidate was merely an idea and not reality.  Bandwagon/vibes effect is real and not shown in these numbers.

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