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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Read the ipsos poll I cited upthread. (20% is twice as much as 10% thanks for coming to my Ted Talk)

reuters%20ipsos%20foreign%20affairs%20gr

If your goal is to energize your base ("Democrats" in the above graphic) you should choose the position that has 56% support and not the one that has 40% support. It's science.

"Much less likely" seems like it actually matters, so if I have to choose between pissing off 20% or pissing off 10%, I'm going to piss off 10%.

66% of democrats are indifferent or don’t care it being a policy point. Do you know how these questions work? Ever taking a work survey? 

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Posted
Just now, Covri said:

66% of democrats are indifferent or don’t care it being a policy point. Do you know how these questions work? Ever taking a work survey? 

20% of 33% is enough to matter if you're trying to maximize turnout in specific swing states. It's not controversial to follow the data about your base and give your base what it wants.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Didn’t fox have to admit to a court that they are in fact *not* a news organization?

Pepperidge Farm remembers, which is why it's completely fine to say they can't be debate moderators, because they are not journalists and have admitted they are incapable of being neutral, or even ethical.

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Posted
1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

20% of 33% is enough to matter if you're trying to maximize turnout in specific swing states. It's not controversial to follow the data about your base and give your base what it wants.

Do you know what the word "base" means? 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Read the ipsos poll I cited upthread. (20% is twice as much as 10% thanks for coming to my Ted Talk)

reuters%20ipsos%20foreign%20affairs%20gr

If your goal is to energize your base ("Democrats" in the above graphic) you should choose the position that has 56% support and not the one that has 40% support. It's science.

"Much less likely" seems like it actually matters, so if I have to choose between pissing off 20% or pissing off 10%, I'm going to piss off 10%.

I’m sorry I thought you were prattling on about immigration. Is there a Kamala ad touting military aid to Israel I need to be concerned about?

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Posted
Read the ipsos poll I cited upthread. (20% is twice as much as 10% thanks for coming to my Ted Talk)
reuters%20ipsos%20foreign%20affairs%20graphic%201%20jpeg%203.1.24_0.jpg
If your goal is to energize your base ("Democrats" in the above graphic) you should choose the position that has 56% support and not the one that has 40% support. It's science.
"Much less likely" seems like it actually matters, so if I have to choose between pissing off 20% or pissing off 10%, I'm going to piss off 10%.

If your goal is to “energize the base” at the expense of getting independent/swing voters, your plan is brilliant.
I’m never ever going to look to a fringe that is only good at losing elections for a winning electoral strategy.
Y’all won’t be happy till we elect a Chavez. Most Americans want nothing to do with that maximalist idiocy. Sorry you’re a fringe group who nobody else likes, but them’s the breaks.
Get real, and there’s a seat at the table for you.
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Posted
26 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

You speak for labor? You'd be surprised how left-of-center they are as a voting bloc.

Show us your labor bonfides. And your age while you’re at it…

7 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Didn’t fox have to admit to a court that they are in fact *not* a news organization?

It’s semantics but they’ve had to legally take that position on specific shows, line Tucker Carlson, Hannity, etc. it’s also why their talent is called hosts, not anchors. But as far as I know technically they’re still considered a news orgZ they just have lots of “entertainment” shows that look like news. 
 

Maddow has used the same defense fwiw. 

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It's funny how the progressive maximalist left . . . the people who gave us not only GW Bush and the Iraq war but also the Trump administration

What an entitled, tone deaf take. The far left didn’t vote for W or Trump. They supported non-mainstream candidates because neither of the parties offered even a true left-of-center option.

If anyone is to blame for losing the far left’s support, it’s the Clinton Democrats who dragged the party well into (and possibly beyond) midcentury Republican territory on the political spectrum. They also lost the working class in the process. Now our allies are former gung-ho small government / low tax Republican types. Yay.

Edited by BrickHorn
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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


If your goal is to “energize the base” at the expense of getting independent/swing voters, your plan is brilliant.
I’m never ever going to look to a fringe that is only good at losing elections for a winning electoral strategy.
Y’all won’t be happy till we elect a Chavez. Most Americans want nothing to do with that maximalist idiocy. Sorry you’re a fringe group who nobody else likes, but them’s the breaks.
Get real, and there’s a seat at the table for you.

Independents have the same position on Israel, just less pronounced (51-45 for +6%). You can't call the position with +16% support "fringe" within Dems or even among the broad electorate (48-47 for +1%).

Edited by chainsaw
Posted
1 minute ago, Homercles said:

Man, for a minute there, thought I’d missed something real important in this thread.  

Nope, just an irrelevant slap fight between dudes that are all going to vote for Harris.  We're just arguing over how enthusiastic we'll be doing it.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

What an entitled, tone deaf take. The far left didn’t vote for W or Trump. They supported non-mainstream candidates because neither of the parties offered even a true left-of-center option.

If anyone is to blame for losing the far left’s support, it’s the Clinton Democrats who dragged the party well into (and possibly beyond) midcentury Republican territory on the political spectrum. They also lost the working class in the process. Now our allies are former gung-ho small government / low tax Republican types. Yay.

Defending voting for Ralph Nader and Gary Johnson types while ignoring the direct correlation on those outcomes for guys like Trump is certainly a choice. 

 

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Posted
Defending voting for Ralph Nader and Gary Johnson types while ignoring the direct correlation on those outcomes for guys like Trump is certainly a choice. 
 

Chainsaw and those who think like him are not voting for Harris. Bank on it. No matter what he says here, that type is no different than the folks who constantly stan for Trump, shit on every dem, but say “oh, but I hate Trump, I’m not voting for him.”
They are dishonest. It is what it is.
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Posted

Fun fact

https://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/lewis/pdf/greenreform9.pdf

Quote

One might have conjectured, that is, that Nader voters were solid Democrats who in 2000 supported a candidate politically left of the actual Democratic candidate. This conjecture, we have shown, is wrong: Nader voters, what participating in non-presidential contests that were part of the 2000 general election, often voted for Republican candidates. Correspondingly, Buchanan voters voted for down-ballot Democratic candidates. Thus, the notion that a left-leaning (right-leaning) third party presidential candidate by necessity steals votes from Democratic (Republican) candidates does not hold.

 

Posted
Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Defending voting for Ralph Nader and Gary Johnson types while ignoring the direct correlation on those outcomes for guys like Trump is certainly a choice. 

 

Pinning blame for the rightward shift at the presidential level on only the group that voted for furthest left candidates is certainly another choice. Not a rational one, mind you. 

Posted

Another fun fact

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Christopher-Devine-5/publication/354502002_Did_Gary_Johnson_and_Jill_Stein_Cost_Hillary_Clinton_the_Presidency_A_Counterfactual_Analysis_of_Minor_Party_Voting_in_the_2016_US_Presidential_Election/links/61490a80519a1a381f718bda/Did-Gary-Johnson-and-Jill-Stein-Cost-Hillary-Clinton-the-Presidency-A-Counterfactual-Analysis-of-Minor-Party-Voting-in-the-2016-US-Presidential-Election.pdf

Quote

Our analysis indicates that the majority of Johnson’s and Stein’s voters would have abstained from voting if one or both of those candidates had not contested the 2016 election. Of those who would have voted, we estimate that approximately 60% of Johnson’s voters would have voted for Trump, and 32-33% for Clinton. And, for Stein’s voters, we estimate that 75-80% of those still voting would have chosen Clinton, versus 17-18% for Trump. Reallocating these votes accordingly would not have altered the outcome of the 2016 election.

 

The villain in 2000 was SCOTUS and in 2016 was Comey.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Pinning blame for the rightward shift at the presidential level on only the group that voted for furthest left candidates is certainly another choice. Not a rational one, mind you. 

And to be clear, I don’t include Johnson in that. I’m talking about voters who supported Nader or Sanders (and then were unenthusiastic to support Hillary).

But again: when a nominally left wing party puts up a shitty, center-right candidate, it’s idiotic to blame lack of enthusiasm on the left-wing voters.

Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

Pinning blame for the rightward shift at the presidential level on only the group that voted for furthest left candidates is certainly another choice. Not a rational one, mind you. 

Today I learned that Math is irrational.
 

Protest votes and sitting out voting are common discussion in every kind of political election. Suppressed turnout, etc. but you want to sit here and pretend that because you refused to compromise from your unflinching and unwavering “principles” to vote for the lesser of two evils that it had no negative consequences. Well ok.

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Posted
3 hours ago, chainsaw said:

I'm less optimistic than you about that. She's boxing herself into a policy position that is unpopular with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and unlike when Biden did it there is no pressing need to get aid to Ukraine tied to it. It's just bad politics and will be bad for turnout.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/31/biden-border-deal-progressives-00138687

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/06/biden-border-move-infuriated-progressives-00162171

 

3 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Appearing weak on the border is not gonna win in a general US election in the year 2024.

The 10% fringe left threatening to stay home, well f em at this point.

lol JFC, two wildly dramatic reactions from opposite ends.

No one is staying home over it. Harris saying she'd sign that bill is barely news and will be forgotten by Monday. I'm neither optimistic or pessimistic that she'd sign it if presented the opportunity because I strongly believe she never will be. 

It's a bad policy position, but good (albeit marginal) politics. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Pinning blame for the rightward shift at the presidential level on only the group that voted for furthest left candidates is certainly another choice. Not a rational one, mind you. 

I think they're just frustrated with the reality that those people exist and there's nothing anyone can do about it.

What frustrates me is that Dems always spend $100 of political capital trying to pry one guy from the right when they could make the same spend and get three people from the left not to stay home (or otherwise throw their vote away)

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Posted
17 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Man, for a minute there, thought I’d missed something real important in this thread.  

I opened it only to see the exact same posts on the exact same topic by the exact same poster as this time yesterday.

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Posted
18 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

What an entitled, tone deaf take. The far left didn’t vote for W or Trump. They supported non-mainstream candidates because neither of the parties offered even a true left-of-center option.

 

And that makes sense, because they should never compromise. Everyone else, sure. Not them, though. And if it means things get a lot worse, it's not like it impacts them anyway. What's the point of privilege if you don't use it?

image.png.4959216baa59954c3a8fbffc6528bdce.png

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Elon has been getting Twitter idiots fired up about undocumented immigrants all day.

He might have a slightly larger reach than chainsaw.

Screenshot_20240801_193619_Chrome.thumb.jpg.ae453ac2f86c587a7b9367fd77afffda.jpgScreenshot_20240801_193706_Chrome.thumb.jpg.6957c4855776e6f1fbf73422929c092a.jpgScreenshot_20240801_193837_Chrome.thumb.jpg.ed769c56d68e973954d0472fe9f5a31f.jpgScreenshot_20240801_193605_Chrome.thumb.jpg.ef61e06b8dc6a7275fdf53a89003757b.jpg

The only people who take Elon seriously are weirdos or they can't vote since they're Malaysians

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Posted
1 minute ago, BrickHorn said:

And to be clear, I don’t include Johnson in that. I’m talking about voters who supported Nader or Sanders (and then were unenthusiastic to support Hillary).

But again: when a nominally left wing party puts up a shitty, center-right candidate, it’s idiotic to blame lack of enthusiasm on the left-wing voters.

Except when they don’t vote and they’re the margin in a loss that puts a fascist into office? Yeah, sorry, I blame them. The same way I’ll blame 300k Middle East voters in Michigan who will put someone into office that will put them into fucking internment camps. 
 

also, like chainsaw, calling bill clinton a center right candidate is you projecting your own minority opinion and declaring it a common fact. It’s subjective as fuck, and a bullshit tactic. 

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Posted
I think they're just frustrated with the reality that those people exist and there's nothing anyone can do about it.
What frustrates me is that Dems always spend $100 of political capital trying to pry one guy from the right when they could make the same spend and get three people from the left not to stay home (or otherwise throw their vote away)

You just told and showed us that the Jill Stein crowd doesn’t matter and doesn’t sway elections….so why cater to them?
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Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


You just told and showed us that the Jill Stein crowd doesn’t matter and doesn’t sway elections….so why cater to them?

It's about turnout in seven or eight states, not about idiots who show up but throw their votes away. Give the base what it wants and they will turn out. Kamala should avoid taking positions to the right of the ones Biden took in 2020. Follow the data.

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Posted
Just now, Brisketexan said:


If Kamala gives in to your no-compromise progressive maximalist fever dreams…what does that do to the 1) centrist dem and 2) independent voters who…last I checked….have votes that count exactly the same as the vote of a Chavista?
Forest. Trees.
There’s a huge swath of enthusiastic voters who are fucking sick and tired of the no-compromise extremism Trump and the GQP have spent nearly 20 years shoving down our throat. And your response to that is…how about we try THIS flavor of extremism! You’ll love it!
Missing the entire fucking point.

Are you calling Biden's 2020 platform a "flavor of extremism" because I don't see how it was extreme. After all, it won over 300 electoral votes.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Jive Turkey said:

jesus h. christ.  can chainsaw get his own "Trump v. Harris: How will Progressives vote" thread?  This thread is titled "Let's keep the party going." but this party blows.  people are gonna start making Irish exits if this keeps up.

@immamac

 

Im part of the problem,  but this is a good solution. 

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